20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $58.87 (banked floor $57.91) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $13,556/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $983/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-39,370 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 2d | 14 × $45 | 85% | $7,140 | $6,002 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 14 Aug 2026 · 9d | 20 × $46 | 78% | $7,133 | $1,345 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 17 × $52 | 7 Aug | 2d | 29.2% | 98%hist 99% | 4%hist 1% | -2pp | $68 | $1,020 | -$6,120 | $11,607 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $52 29.2% OTM over spot $40.23 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.12 mid) = $68 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,020/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $52.12) 98% EV / mo +$644 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -2pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $139/mo median; plan ~$95/mo after 68% keep · $105 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.5-2.0], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,801 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $72 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.39/sh now → $1.69 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $7 below CC-SS $58.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $52.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,464 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $52): -$11,607 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $55): -$995 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,508 (+$26,862 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,541 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,967, the opportunity cost of earning $1,020/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 17 × $47 | 7 Aug | 2d | 16.8% | 92%hist 99% | 17%hist 6% | +2pp | $306 | $4,590 | -$2,550 | $19,869 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $47 16.8% OTM over spot $40.23 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.21 mid) = $306 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,590/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $47.20) 92% EV / mo +$1,798 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,010/mo median; plan ~$1,367/mo after 68% keep · $4,301 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-1.9], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,188 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $62 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.07/sh now → $1.47 mid-life (likely $1.50–$2.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 222 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $49 (overshoots $1.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $12 below CC-SS $58.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $47.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,464 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $47): -$19,869 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $55): -$995 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,770 (+$18,600 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,541 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,229, the opportunity cost of earning $4,590/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $47 | 7 Aug | 2d | 16.8% | 92%hist 99% | 17%hist 6% | +3pp | $360 | $5,400 | -$1,740 | $23,375 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $47 16.8% OTM over spot $40.23 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.21 mid) = $360 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $47.20) 92% EV / mo +$2,115 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,060/mo median; plan ~$1,401/mo after 68% keep · $4,443 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.0], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,574 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $62 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.07/sh now → $1.47 mid-life (likely $1.52–$2.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 239 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $49 (overshoots $1.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $12 below CC-SS $58.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $47.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,464 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $47): -$23,375 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,281 (+$16,089 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,541 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,740, the opportunity cost of earning $5,400/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 14 × $45 | 7 Aug | 2d | 11.8% | 85%hist 95% | 31%hist 22% | +6pp | $476 | $7,140 | — | $18,939 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $45 11.8% OTM over spot $40.23 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.37 mid) = $476 credit for the 2d cycle → $7,140/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $45.37) 87% EV / mo +$1,881 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,171/mo median; plan ~$2,156/mo after 68% keep · $9,682 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.5-2.9], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,459 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $60 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.95/sh now → $1.38 mid-life (likely $1.56–$2.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 478 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $47 (overshoots $2.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $14 below CC-SS $58.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.34 collected) or spot ≥ $45.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,464 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $45): -$18,939 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $55): -$1,991 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,835 (+$18,535 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,541 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,294, the opportunity cost of earning $7,140/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $44 | 7 Aug | 2d | 9.4% | 80%hist 95% | 41%hist 32% | +5pp | $931 | $13,965 | +$6,825 | $27,318 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $44 9.4% OTM over spot $40.23 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.53 mid) = $931 credit for the 2d cycle → $13,965/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $44.53) 83% EV / mo +$3,269 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,930/mo median; plan ~$3,353/mo after 68% keep · $14,462 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-3.0], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,616 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $64 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.90/sh now → $1.34 mid-life (likely $1.52–$3.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 693 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $46 (overshoots $2.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $15 below CC-SS $58.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $44.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,464 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $44): -$27,318 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $55): -$332 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,555 (+$11,815 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,541 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,014, the opportunity cost of earning $13,965/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 9 × $52 | 14 Aug | 9d | 29.2% | 92%hist 99% | 17%hist 6% | -1pp | $297 | $990 | -$6,143 | $5,884 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $52 29.2% OTM over spot $40.23 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.39 mid) = $297 credit for the 9d cycle → $990/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $52.39) 92% EV / mo +$335 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $775/mo median; plan ~$527/mo after 68% keep · $3,565 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-3.3], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,502 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $62 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.39/sh now → $3.11 mid-life (likely $2.45–$4.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 341 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $54 (overshoots $2.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $7 below CC-SS $58.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $52.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,464 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $52): -$5,884 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (11 × $55): -$3,649 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,439 (+$29,931 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,541 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,898, the opportunity cost of earning $990/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $52 | 14 Aug | 9d | 29.2% | 92%hist 99% | 17%hist 6% | -1pp | $660 | $2,200 | -$4,933 | $13,075 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $52 29.2% OTM over spot $40.23 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.39 mid) = $660 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $52.39) 92% EV / mo +$744 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $359/mo median; plan ~$244/mo after 68% keep · $838 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.0], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,559 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $62 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.39/sh now → $3.11 mid-life (likely $2.46–$4.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 363 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $54 (overshoots $1.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $7 below CC-SS $58.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $52.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,464 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $52): -$13,075 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,981 (+$26,389 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,541 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,440, the opportunity cost of earning $2,200/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $48 | 14 Aug | 9d | 19.3% | 84%hist 95% | 34%hist 22% | +2pp | $1,406 | $4,687 | -$2,447 | $19,243 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $48 19.3% OTM over spot $40.23 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.80 mid) = $1,406 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,687/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $48.80) 86% EV / mo +$1,181 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,460/mo median; plan ~$993/mo after 68% keep · $4,292 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-2.9], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,853 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $59 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.91/sh now → $2.77 mid-life (likely $2.63–$4.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.74/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 809 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $50 (overshoots $1.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $11 below CC-SS $58.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.74 collected) or spot ≥ $48.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,464 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $48): -$19,243 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $55): -$332 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,480 (+$19,890 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,541 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,939, the opportunity cost of earning $4,687/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $46 | 14 Aug | 9d | 14.3% | 78%hist 92% | 46%hist 32% | +2pp | $2,140 | $7,133 | — | $23,595 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $46 14.3% OTM over spot $40.23 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.14 mid) = $2,140 credit for the 9d cycle → $7,133/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $47.14) 82% EV / mo +$1,406 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,094/mo median; plan ~$1,424/mo after 68% keep · $7,598 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.2], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,067 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $59 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.68/sh now → $2.60 mid-life (likely $2.83–$4.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,066 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $48 (overshoots $1.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $13 below CC-SS $58.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.07 collected) or spot ≥ $47.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,464 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $46): -$23,595 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,501 (+$15,869 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,541 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,960, the opportunity cost of earning $7,133/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $42 | 14 Aug | 9d | 4.4% | 62%hist 78% | 81%hist 81% | +5pp | $4,142 | $13,807 | +$6,673 | $27,907 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $42 4.4% OTM over spot $40.23 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $2.25 mid) = $4,142 credit for the 9d cycle → $13,807/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $44.26) 72% EV / mo +$1,573 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,446/mo median; plan ~$2,344/mo after 68% keep · $11,441 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.5-2.7], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$205 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $62 @ 94% POP 93% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.23/sh now → $2.29 mid-life (likely $2.99–$4.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,939 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $44 (overshoots $1.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $17 below CC-SS $58.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.55/sh (~25% of the $2.18 collected) or spot ≥ $44.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,464 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $42): -$27,907 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $55): -$332 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,144 (+$11,226 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,541 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,603, the opportunity cost of earning $13,807/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 30 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.059 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$39,464 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-6,541
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.34 | 14/20 | $7,140 | $6,775 | 85% | 87% | +$1,881 | -$18,939 | 315.6% | $-20,835 (vs do-nothing $-14,294) |
| $44 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.49 | 10/20 | $7,350 | $7,398 | 80% | 83% | +$1,721 | -$14,378 | 239.6% | $-17,601 (vs do-nothing $-11,060) |
| $46 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.07 | 20/20 | $7,133 | $6,150 | 78% | 82% | +$1,406 | -$23,595 | 393.3% | $-23,501 (vs do-nothing $-16,960) |
| $45 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.30 | 16/20 | $6,933 | $6,363 | 75% | 79% | +$1,270 | -$20,108 | 335.1% | $-21,341 (vs do-nothing $-14,800) |
| $46 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.87 | 20/20 | $7,012 | $6,029 | 74% | 79% | +$1,437 | -$21,995 | 366.6% | $-21,901 (vs do-nothing $-15,360) |
| $43 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.70 | 7/20 | $7,350 | $7,707 | 74% | 79% | +$1,505 | -$10,617 | 177.0% | $-14,836 (vs do-nothing $-8,295) |
| $46 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.60 | 20/20 | $6,783 | $5,799 | 72% | 78% | +$911 | -$20,535 | 342.3% | $-20,441 (vs do-nothing $-13,900) |
| $45 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.14 | 17/20 | $6,821 | $6,147 | 72% | 78% | +$1,296 | -$19,937 | 332.3% | $-20,838 (vs do-nothing $-14,297) |
| $44 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.55 | 14/20 | $7,233 | $6,869 | 71% | 77% | +$1,144 | -$18,645 | 310.7% | $-20,541 (vs do-nothing $-14,000) |
| $45 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.97 | 18/20 | $6,973 | $6,196 | 70% | 77% | +$1,036 | -$19,616 | 326.9% | $-20,185 (vs do-nothing $-13,644) |
| $44 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.40 | 16/20 | $7,200 | $6,629 | 68% | 76% | +$1,154 | -$19,948 | 332.5% | $-21,181 (vs do-nothing $-14,640) |
| $42 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.96 | 5/20 | $7,200 | $7,764 | 67% | 74% | +$1,111 | -$7,954 | 132.6% | $-12,836 (vs do-nothing $-6,295) |
| $44 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.15 | 17/20 | $6,985 | $6,311 | 67% | 75% | +$734 | -$19,920 | 332.0% | $-20,821 (vs do-nothing $-14,280) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.85 | 11/20 | $6,783 | $6,728 | 67% | 75% | +$942 | -$15,419 | 257.0% | $-18,311 (vs do-nothing $-11,770) |
| $43 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.72 | 14/20 | $7,140 | $6,775 | 65% | 74% | +$1,008 | -$18,407 | 306.8% | $-20,303 (vs do-nothing $-13,762) |
| $43 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.45 | 16/20 | $7,200 | $6,629 | 64% | 74% | +$618 | -$19,868 | 331.1% | $-21,101 (vs do-nothing $-14,560) |
| $42 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.18 | 10/20 | $7,267 | $7,315 | 62% | 72% | +$828 | -$14,688 | 244.8% | $-17,911 (vs do-nothing $-11,370) |
| $42 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 13/20 | $7,312 | $7,051 | 62% | 72% | +$736 | -$18,028 | 300.5% | $-20,256 (vs do-nothing $-13,715) |
| $42 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.80 | 14/20 | $6,939 | $6,575 | 62% | 72% | +$509 | -$18,295 | 304.9% | $-20,191 (vs do-nothing $-13,650) |
| $41 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.29 | 4/20 | $7,740 | $8,407 | 59% | 70% | +$794 | -$6,631 | 110.5% | $-11,845 (vs do-nothing $-5,304) |
| $41 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $4.15 | 13/20 | $7,037 | $6,775 | 59% | 71% | +$385 | -$17,833 | 297.2% | $-20,061 (vs do-nothing $-13,520) |
| $41 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.35 | 11/20 | $6,909 | $6,854 | 58% | 70% | +$506 | -$15,969 | 266.2% | $-18,861 (vs do-nothing $-12,320) |
| $41 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.55 | 8/20 | $6,800 | $7,054 | 58% | 70% | +$599 | -$12,254 | 204.2% | $-16,141 (vs do-nothing $-9,600) |
| $40 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $4.65 | 12/20 | $7,278 | $7,120 | 55% | 69% | +$453 | -$17,061 | 284.4% | $-19,621 (vs do-nothing $-13,080) |
| $40 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.85 | 10/20 | $7,219 | $7,267 | 54% | 68% | +$548 | -$15,018 | 250.3% | $-18,241 (vs do-nothing $-11,700) |
| $40 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.99 | 7/20 | $6,977 | $7,334 | 53% | 67% | +$495 | -$11,114 | 185.2% | $-15,333 (vs do-nothing $-8,792) |
| $39.50 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.00 | 10/20 | $7,500 | $7,548 | 52% | 67% | +$371 | -$15,368 | 256.1% | $-18,591 (vs do-nothing $-12,050) |
| $39.50 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.20 | 7/20 | $7,467 | $7,824 | 50% | 66% | +$404 | -$11,317 | 188.6% | $-15,536 (vs do-nothing $-8,995) |
| $40 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.67 | 3/20 | $7,515 | $8,285 | 50% | 65% | +$283 | -$5,159 | 86.0% | $-10,705 (vs do-nothing $-4,164) |
| $39.50 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.90 | 3/20 | $8,550 | $9,320 | 45% | 63% | +$120 | -$5,240 | 87.3% | $-10,786 (vs do-nothing $-4,245) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.