20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $58.90 (banked floor $57.95) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $14,200/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,014/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-45,730 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 14 Aug 2026 · 8d | 20 × $43 | 81% | $7,200 | $1,786 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 12 × $50 | 14 Aug | 8d | 34.0% | 96%hist 99% | 8%hist 1% | +0pp | $276 | $1,035 | -$6,165 | $10,404 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 12 × $50 34.0% OTM over spot $37.32 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.26 mid) = $276 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,035/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $50.26) 96% EV / mo +$779 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $235/mo median; plan ~$159/mo after 68% keep · $793 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.1-3.4], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,760 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $59 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.75/sh now → $3.36 mid-life (likely $2.40–$4.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 185 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $52 (overshoots $1.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $9 below CC-SS $58.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $50.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $43.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.90, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,730 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$45,404 − CC assignment net of premium (12 × $50): -$10,404 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $55): -$2,864 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,594 (+$32,136 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,486 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,108, the opportunity cost of earning $1,035/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $46.71 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-25,717 (+$20,013 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $47 | 14 Aug | 8d | 25.9% | 91%hist 99% | 18%hist 6% | +2pp | $740 | $2,775 | -$4,425 | $23,060 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $47 25.9% OTM over spot $37.32 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.43 mid) = $740 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,775/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $47.44) 92% EV / mo +$1,354 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 49% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $625/mo median; plan ~$425/mo after 68% keep · $2,206 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [1.0-3.5], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,394 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $55 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.33/sh now → $3.07 mid-life (likely $2.54–$4.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 343 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $49 (overshoots $1.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $12 below CC-SS $58.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $47.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $43.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.90, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,730 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$45,404 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $47): -$23,060 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,386 (+$22,344 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,486 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,900, the opportunity cost of earning $2,775/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $46.71 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-25,973 (+$19,757 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $45 | 14 Aug | 8d | 20.6% | 87%hist 95% | 27%hist 18% | +4pp | $1,254 | $4,702 | -$2,497 | $25,156 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $45 20.6% OTM over spot $37.32 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.70 mid) = $1,254 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,702/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $45.70) 89% EV / mo +$2,395 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,478/mo median; plan ~$1,005/mo after 68% keep · $6,450 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-3.7], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,211 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $54 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.06/sh now → $2.88 mid-life (likely $2.66–$4.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.66/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 582 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $47 (overshoots $1.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $14 below CC-SS $58.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.66 collected) or spot ≥ $45.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $43.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.90, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,730 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$45,404 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $45): -$25,156 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $55): -$358 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,840 (+$19,890 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,486 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,354, the opportunity cost of earning $4,702/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $46.71 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,995, position total $-27,936 (+$17,794 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $43 | 14 Aug | 8d | 15.2% | 81%hist 95% | 39%hist 22% | +6pp | $1,920 | $7,200 | — | $29,880 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $43 15.2% OTM over spot $37.32 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.03 mid) = $1,920 credit for the 8d cycle → $7,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $44.03) 85% EV / mo +$3,083 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,186/mo median; plan ~$1,486/mo after 68% keep · $10,067 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-3.9], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,461 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $53 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.80/sh now → $2.69 mid-life (likely $2.78–$4.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.96/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 861 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $45 (overshoots $1.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $16 below CC-SS $58.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.96 collected) or spot ≥ $44.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $43.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.90, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,730 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$45,404 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $43): -$29,880 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,206 (+$15,524 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,486 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,720, the opportunity cost of earning $7,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $46.71 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,500, position total $-31,473 (+$14,257 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $39.50 | 14 Aug | 8d | 5.8% | 66%hist 78% | 72%hist 59% | +7pp | $3,960 | $14,850 | +$7,650 | $34,840 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $39.50 5.8% OTM over spot $37.32 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $2.07 mid) = $3,960 credit for the 8d cycle → $14,850/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $39.50) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays ≤ $41.57) 76% EV / mo +$4,877 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,523/mo median; plan ~$2,396/mo after 68% keep · $15,533 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [1.0-3.1], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$798 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $55 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.36/sh now → $2.38 mid-life (likely $3.06–$4.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.98/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,729 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $41 (overshoots $1.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $39.50 is $19 below CC-SS $58.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.49/sh (~25% of the $1.98 collected) or spot ≥ $41.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $43.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.90, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,730 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$45,404 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $39.50): -$34,840 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,166 (+$10,564 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,486 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,680, the opportunity cost of earning $14,850/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $46.71 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,460, position total $-36,433 (+$9,297 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 25 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.052 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$45,404 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-7,486
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.96 | 20/20 | $7,200 | $6,186 | 81% | 85% | +$3,083 | -$29,880 | 498.0% | $-30,206 (vs do-nothing $-22,720) |
| $42 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.26 | 16/20 | $7,560 | $6,802 | 78% | 83% | +$3,292 | -$25,024 | 417.1% | $-26,782 (vs do-nothing $-19,296) |
| $42 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.98 | 18/20 | $7,128 | $6,242 | 74% | 80% | +$2,507 | -$26,856 | 447.6% | $-27,898 (vs do-nothing $-20,412) |
| $41 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.48 | 13/20 | $7,215 | $6,649 | 73% | 80% | +$2,740 | -$21,346 | 355.8% | $-24,178 (vs do-nothing $-16,692) |
| $42 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.80 | 19/20 | $7,255 | $6,304 | 71% | 78% | +$2,045 | -$26,790 | 446.5% | $-27,474 (vs do-nothing $-19,988) |
| $41 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.37 | 15/20 | $7,110 | $6,416 | 70% | 78% | +$2,488 | -$23,295 | 388.3% | $-25,411 (vs do-nothing $-17,925) |
| $40 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.80 | 11/20 | $7,425 | $6,987 | 69% | 77% | +$2,568 | -$18,810 | 313.5% | $-22,358 (vs do-nothing $-14,872) |
| $41 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 18/20 | $7,364 | $6,478 | 68% | 77% | +$1,713 | -$26,820 | 447.0% | $-27,862 (vs do-nothing $-20,376) |
| $40 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.66 | 14/20 | $7,448 | $6,818 | 66% | 76% | +$2,291 | -$22,736 | 378.9% | $-25,210 (vs do-nothing $-17,724) |
| $39.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.98 | 10/20 | $7,425 | $7,051 | 66% | 76% | +$2,438 | -$17,420 | 290.3% | $-21,326 (vs do-nothing $-13,840) |
| $40 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.30 | 16/20 | $7,200 | $6,442 | 65% | 75% | +$1,462 | -$24,960 | 416.0% | $-26,718 (vs do-nothing $-19,232) |
| $39.50 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.85 | 13/20 | $7,410 | $6,844 | 64% | 75% | +$1,890 | -$21,515 | 358.6% | $-24,347 (vs do-nothing $-16,861) |
| $39 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.19 | 9/20 | $7,391 | $7,081 | 63% | 75% | +$2,334 | -$15,939 | 265.7% | $-20,203 (vs do-nothing $-12,717) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $39 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 12/20 | $7,200 | $6,698 | 62% | 74% | +$1,669 | -$20,280 | 338.0% | $-23,470 (vs do-nothing $-15,984) |
| $39 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.65 | 15/20 | $7,466 | $6,772 | 62% | 73% | +$1,336 | -$24,375 | 406.3% | $-26,491 (vs do-nothing $-19,005) |
| $38.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.40 | 8/20 | $7,200 | $6,954 | 61% | 74% | +$2,147 | -$14,400 | 240.0% | $-19,022 (vs do-nothing $-11,536) |
| $38.50 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.15 | 12/20 | $7,560 | $7,058 | 60% | 72% | +$1,565 | -$20,700 | 345.0% | $-23,890 (vs do-nothing $-16,404) |
| $38 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $4.05 | 13/20 | $7,180 | $6,613 | 58% | 72% | +$1,144 | -$21,905 | 365.1% | $-24,737 (vs do-nothing $-17,251) |
| $38 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.35 | 11/20 | $7,370 | $6,932 | 58% | 71% | +$1,421 | -$19,305 | 321.8% | $-22,853 (vs do-nothing $-15,367) |
| $38 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.61 | 8/20 | $7,830 | $7,584 | 58% | 72% | +$2,165 | -$14,632 | 243.9% | $-19,254 (vs do-nothing $-11,768) |
| $37.50 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.55 | 10/20 | $7,100 | $6,726 | 56% | 71% | +$1,255 | -$17,850 | 297.5% | $-21,756 (vs do-nothing $-14,270) |
| $37 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $4.75 | 11/20 | $7,125 | $6,687 | 55% | 71% | +$1,342 | -$18,865 | 314.4% | $-22,413 (vs do-nothing $-14,927) |
| $37.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.80 | 7/20 | $7,350 | $7,168 | 55% | 71% | +$1,810 | -$13,020 | 217.0% | $-18,000 (vs do-nothing $-10,514) |
| $37 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.80 | 10/20 | $7,600 | $7,226 | 53% | 70% | +$1,291 | -$18,100 | 301.7% | $-22,006 (vs do-nothing $-14,520) |
| $37 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 7/20 | $7,875 | $7,693 | 51% | 70% | +$1,701 | -$13,230 | 220.5% | $-18,210 (vs do-nothing $-10,724) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.