20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $58.37 (banked floor $56.34) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,286/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $214/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-37,140 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20x $40C 4 Sep 2026 | U13190865 | $0.24 | $486 | 2026-09-01 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 11 Sep 2026 · 7d | 15 × $44 | 72% | $5,464 | $1,983 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 8 × $52 | 11 Sep | 7d | 24.6% | 97%hist 96% | 6%hist 2% | +0pp | $56 | $240 | -$5,224 | $5,038 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $52 24.6% OTM over spot $41.74 11 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.08 mid) = $56 credit for the 7d cycle → $240/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $52.08) 97% EV / mo +$155 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $409/mo median; plan ~$278/mo after 68% keep · $2,566 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-3.9], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,413 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $60 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.60/sh now → $1.84 mid-life (likely $1.06–$2.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 53 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $53 (overshoots $1.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $6 below CC-SS $58.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $52.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $46.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,140 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,045 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $52): -$5,038 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $55): -$3,838 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,971 (+$29,169 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,491 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,480, the opportunity cost of earning $240/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $48 | 11 Sep | 7d | 15.0% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 13% | +1pp | $420 | $1,800 | -$3,664 | $20,316 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48 15.0% OTM over spot $41.74 11 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.24 mid) = $420 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $48.24) 92% EV / mo +$829 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $999/mo median; plan ~$679/mo after 68% keep · $5,148 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.2-4.1], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,777 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $56 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.26/sh now → $1.60 mid-life (likely $1.37–$2.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 308 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $49 (overshoots $1.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $10 below CC-SS $58.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $48.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $46.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,140 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,045 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48): -$20,316 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,411 (+$17,729 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,491 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,920, the opportunity cost of earning $1,800/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $46 | 11 Sep | 7d | 10.2% | 84%hist 86% | 33%hist 31% | +5pp | $798 | $3,420 | -$2,044 | $22,701 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $46 10.2% OTM over spot $41.74 11 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.45 mid) = $798 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,420/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $46.45) 86% EV / mo +$1,274 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,626/mo median; plan ~$1,105/mo after 68% keep · $9,875 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.1-3.5], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,025 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $53 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.10/sh now → $1.49 mid-life (likely $1.46–$2.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 699 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $47 (overshoots $0.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $12 below CC-SS $58.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $46.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $46.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,140 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,045 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $46): -$22,701 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $55): -$320 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,116 (+$15,024 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,491 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,625, the opportunity cost of earning $3,420/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 15 × $44 | 11 Sep | 7d | 5.4% | 72%hist 84% | 59%hist 43% | +6pp | $1,275 | $5,464 | — | $20,277 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $44 5.4% OTM over spot $41.74 11 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.89 mid) = $1,275 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,464/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $44.89) 78% EV / mo +$1,573 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,198/mo median; plan ~$1,495/mo after 68% keep · $10,557 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-3.9], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 45% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$791 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $57 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.95/sh now → $1.38 mid-life (likely $1.58–$2.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,341 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $45 (overshoots $0.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $14 below CC-SS $58.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $44.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $46.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,140 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,045 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $44): -$20,277 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $55): -$1,599 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,971 (+$16,169 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,491 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,480, the opportunity cost of earning $5,464/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 15 × $42 | 11 Sep | 7d | 0.6% | 54%hist 69% | 95%hist 89% | +10pp | $2,400 | $10,286 | +$4,821 | $22,152 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $42 0.6% OTM over spot $41.74 11 Sep 2026 (7d, $1.62 mid) = $2,400 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,286/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $43.62) 69% EV / mo +$1,992 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,828/mo median; plan ~$1,923/mo after 68% keep · $15,119 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.1-4.1], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 75% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$491 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $55 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.80/sh now → $1.27 mid-life (likely $1.78–$2.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,252 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $43 (overshoots $1.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $16 below CC-SS $58.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.40/sh (~25% of the $1.60 collected) or spot ≥ $43.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $46.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,140 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,045 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $42): -$22,152 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $55): -$1,599 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,846 (+$14,294 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,491 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,355, the opportunity cost of earning $10,286/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.144 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$38,045 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,491
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45 | 14d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.29 | 19/20 | $5,252 | $5,074 | 72% | 78% | +$1,364 | -$22,948 | 382.5% | $-22,363 (vs do-nothing $-16,872) |
| $44 | 7d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.85 | 15/20 | $5,464 | $5,432 | 72% | 78% | +$1,573 | -$20,277 | 338.0% | $-20,971 (vs do-nothing $-15,480) |
| $44.50 | 14d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.45 | 17/20 | $5,282 | $5,177 | 69% | 76% | +$1,317 | -$21,111 | 351.8% | $-21,165 (vs do-nothing $-15,674) |
| $45 | 21d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.82 | 20/20 | $5,200 | $4,986 | 69% | 76% | +$1,143 | -$23,096 | 384.9% | $-22,191 (vs do-nothing $-16,700) |
| $44 | 14d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.61 | 15/20 | $5,175 | $5,143 | 66% | 75% | +$1,200 | -$19,137 | 319.0% | $-19,831 (vs do-nothing $-14,340) |
| $44 | 21d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.10 | 18/20 | $5,400 | $5,259 | 65% | 74% | +$1,119 | -$22,082 | 368.0% | $-21,817 (vs do-nothing $-16,326) |
| $44 | 28d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.56 | 19/20 | $5,211 | $5,034 | 64% | 74% | +$1,033 | -$22,435 | 373.9% | $-21,850 (vs do-nothing $-16,359) |
| $43.50 | 14d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.77 | 14/20 | $5,310 | $5,314 | 64% | 74% | +$1,175 | -$18,337 | 305.6% | $-19,351 (vs do-nothing $-13,860) |
| $43 | 7d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.17 | 11/20 | $5,516 | $5,629 | 64% | 73% | +$1,295 | -$15,618 | 260.3% | $-17,591 (vs do-nothing $-12,100) |
| $43 | 14d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.97 | 13/20 | $5,488 | $5,529 | 61% | 72% | +$1,136 | -$17,417 | 290.3% | $-18,751 (vs do-nothing $-13,260) |
| $43 | 21d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.48 | 15/20 | $5,314 | $5,282 | 60% | 71% | +$848 | -$19,332 | 322.2% | $-20,026 (vs do-nothing $-14,535) |
| $43 | 28d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.68 | 18/20 | $5,169 | $5,027 | 60% | 71% | +$488 | -$22,838 | 380.6% | $-22,573 (vs do-nothing $-17,082) |
| $42.50 | 14d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.18 | 12/20 | $5,606 | $5,683 | 58% | 70% | +$1,056 | -$16,426 | 273.8% | $-18,079 (vs do-nothing $-12,588) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $42 | 28d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.40 | 15/20 | $5,464 | $5,432 | 55% | 70% | +$882 | -$19,452 | 324.2% | $-20,146 (vs do-nothing $-14,655) |
| $42 | 21d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.86 | 13/20 | $5,311 | $5,352 | 55% | 69% | +$662 | -$17,560 | 292.7% | $-18,894 (vs do-nothing $-13,403) |
| $42 | 14d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.41 | 10/20 | $5,164 | $5,314 | 55% | 69% | +$881 | -$13,958 | 232.6% | $-16,251 (vs do-nothing $-10,760) |
| $42 | 7d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.60 | 8/20 | $5,486 | $5,709 | 54% | 69% | +$1,062 | -$11,814 | 196.9% | $-14,747 (vs do-nothing $-9,256) |
| $41.50 | 14d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.64 | 10/20 | $5,657 | $5,807 | 51% | 68% | +$945 | -$14,228 | 237.1% | $-16,521 (vs do-nothing $-11,030) |
| $41 | 28d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.55 | 14/20 | $5,325 | $5,329 | 51% | 67% | +$332 | -$19,345 | 322.4% | $-20,359 (vs do-nothing $-14,868) |
| $41 | 21d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.30 | 11/20 | $5,186 | $5,299 | 50% | 67% | +$570 | -$15,475 | 257.9% | $-17,448 (vs do-nothing $-11,957) |
| $41 | 14d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.89 | 9/20 | $5,574 | $5,760 | 48% | 66% | +$801 | -$13,030 | 217.2% | $-15,643 (vs do-nothing $-10,152) |
| $41 | 7d | 11 Sep 2026 | $2.11 | 6/20 | $5,426 | $5,721 | 45% | 65% | +$791 | -$9,155 | 152.6% | $-12,727 (vs do-nothing $-7,236) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.