20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $58.53 (banked floor $56.28) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $12,529/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $253/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-25,780 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 11 Sep 2026 · 3d | 18 × $53 | 89% | $6,480 | $5,593 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 18 Sep 2026 · 10d | 20 × $53 | 78% | $6,480 | $1,128 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 13 × $65 | 11 Sep | 3d | 38.6% | 99+%hist 96% | 0%hist 3% | -5pp | $26 | $260 | -$6,220 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 13 × $65 38.6% OTM over spot $46.91 11 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.03 mid) = $26 credit for the 3d cycle → $260/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $65) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $65.03) 99+% EV / mo +$259 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -5pp 77% whole by 9mo vs 82% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,400/mo median; plan ~$952/mo after 68% keep · $1,404 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.5], measured ONLY among the 77% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,885 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $83 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.17/sh now → $2.24 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $65 is at/above CC-SS $58.53: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $65.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $65)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,780 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,359 − CC assignment net of premium (13 × $65): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $55): -$1,931 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,352 (+$24,428 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,938 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$3,586, the opportunity cost of earning $260/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 16 × $54 | 11 Sep | 3d | 15.1% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 13% | -3pp | $416 | $4,160 | -$2,320 | $6,830 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $54 15.1% OTM over spot $46.91 11 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.29 mid) = $416 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,160/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $54) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $54.28) 92% EV / mo +$2,204 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -3pp 78% whole by 9mo vs 80% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,733/mo median; plan ~$2,538/mo after 68% keep · $4,228 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.4], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,285 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $72 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.39/sh now → $1.69 mid-life (likely $1.61–$3.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 240 simulated challenges: the $54 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $56 (overshoots $1.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $54 is $5 below CC-SS $58.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $54.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $54)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,780 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,359 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $54): -$6,830 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $55): -$1,103 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,354 (+$18,426 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,938 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,416, the opportunity cost of earning $4,160/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $54 | 11 Sep | 3d | 15.1% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 13% | -4pp | $520 | $5,200 | -$1,280 | $8,537 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $54 15.1% OTM over spot $46.91 11 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.29 mid) = $520 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $54) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $54.28) 92% EV / mo +$2,755 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -4pp 77% whole by 9mo vs 81% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,525/mo median; plan ~$2,397/mo after 68% keep · $4,034 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.5 mo [0.2-1.6], measured ONLY among the 77% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,856 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $72 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.39/sh now → $1.69 mid-life (likely $1.56–$2.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 255 simulated challenges: the $54 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $56 (overshoots $1.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $54 is $5 below CC-SS $58.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $54.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $54)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,780 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,359 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $54): -$8,537 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,958 (+$17,822 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,938 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,020, the opportunity cost of earning $5,200/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $53 | 11 Sep | 3d | 13.0% | 89%hist 86% | 23%hist 26% | -0pp | $648 | $6,480 | — | $9,304 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $53 13.0% OTM over spot $46.91 11 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.38 mid) = $648 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $53) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $53.38) 90% EV / mo +$3,264 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -0pp 79% whole by 9mo vs 79% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,858/mo median; plan ~$3,303/mo after 68% keep · $4,426 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.5 mo [0.3-1.3], measured ONLY among the 79% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,307 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $71 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.32/sh now → $1.64 mid-life (likely $1.55–$2.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 355 simulated challenges: the $53 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $55 (overshoots $1.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $53 is $6 below CC-SS $58.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.36 collected) or spot ≥ $53.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $53)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,780 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,359 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $53): -$9,304 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $55): -$552 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,276 (+$16,504 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,938 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,338, the opportunity cost of earning $6,480/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $51 | 11 Sep | 3d | 8.7% | 81%hist 86% | 40%hist 31% | +2pp | $1,260 | $12,600 | +$6,120 | $13,797 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $51 8.7% OTM over spot $46.91 11 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.64 mid) = $1,260 credit for the 3d cycle → $12,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $51.64) 84% EV / mo +$4,967 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 82% whole by 9mo vs 80% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,940/mo median; plan ~$4,719/mo after 68% keep · $7,747 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-1.6], measured ONLY among the 82% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,840 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $69 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.19/sh now → $1.55 mid-life (likely $1.60–$2.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 727 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $53 (overshoots $1.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $8 below CC-SS $58.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.63 collected) or spot ≥ $51.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,780 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,359 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $51): -$13,797 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,218 (+$12,562 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,938 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,280, the opportunity cost of earning $12,600/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $65 | 18 Sep | 10d | 38.6% | 97%hist 96% | 6%hist 3% | -3pp | $96 | $288 | -$6,192 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $65 38.6% OTM over spot $46.91 18 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.17 mid) = $96 credit for the 10d cycle → $288/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $65) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $65.17) 97% EV / mo +$205 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -3pp 75% whole by 9mo vs 78% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,161/mo median; plan ~$2,150/mo after 68% keep · $3,815 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-1.7], measured ONLY among the 75% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,047 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $83 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.05/sh now → $3.57 mid-life (likely $2.46–$4.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 104 simulated challenges: the $65 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $67 (overshoots $2.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $65 is at/above CC-SS $58.53: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $65.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $65)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,780 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,359 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $65): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $55): -$3,862 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,283 (+$22,497 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,938 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,655, the opportunity cost of earning $288/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $60 | 18 Sep | 10d | 27.9% | 93%hist 96% | 15%hist 13% | -6pp | $680 | $2,040 | -$4,440 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $60 27.9% OTM over spot $46.91 18 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.36 mid) = $680 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,040/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $60) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $60.36) 93% EV / mo +$993 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -6pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 76% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $946/mo median; plan ~$643/mo after 68% keep · $2,299 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-1.9], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,639 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $78 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.46/sh now → $3.16 mid-life (likely $2.50–$4.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 307 simulated challenges: the $60 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $62 (overshoots $2.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $60 is at/above CC-SS $58.53: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.34 collected) or spot ≥ $60.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $60)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,780 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,359 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $60): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $579 (+$26,359 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,938 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$5,517, the opportunity cost of earning $2,040/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 18 × $55 | 18 Sep | 10d | 17.3% | 84%hist 86% | 34%hist 31% | -3pp | $1,386 | $4,158 | -$2,322 | $4,966 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $55 17.3% OTM over spot $46.91 18 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.80 mid) = $1,386 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,158/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $55.80) 86% EV / mo +$1,036 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -3pp 75% whole by 9mo vs 78% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,416/mo median; plan ~$2,323/mo after 68% keep · $4,284 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.5], measured ONLY among the 75% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,599 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $73 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.91/sh now → $2.77 mid-life (likely $2.77–$4.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 731 simulated challenges: the $55 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $57 (overshoots $1.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $4 below CC-SS $58.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.77 collected) or spot ≥ $55.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,780 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,359 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $55): -$4,966 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $55): -$552 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,938 (+$20,842 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,938 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$0, the opportunity cost of earning $4,158/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $53 | 18 Sep | 10d | 13.0% | 78%hist 83% | 46%hist 39% | -2pp | $2,160 | $6,480 | — | $8,897 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $53 13.0% OTM over spot $46.91 18 Sep 2026 (10d, $1.12 mid) = $2,160 credit for the 10d cycle → $6,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $53) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $54.12) 81% EV / mo +$1,118 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -2pp 80% whole by 9mo vs 81% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,496/mo median; plan ~$3,057/mo after 68% keep · $5,275 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-1.6], measured ONLY among the 80% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,079 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $71 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.70/sh now → $2.62 mid-life (likely $2.70–$4.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,107 simulated challenges: the $53 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $55 (overshoots $1.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $53 is $6 below CC-SS $58.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.08 collected) or spot ≥ $54.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $53)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,780 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,359 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $53): -$8,897 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,318 (+$17,462 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,938 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,380, the opportunity cost of earning $6,480/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $49 | 18 Sep | 10d | 4.5% | 63%hist 65% | 79%hist 64% | +0pp | $4,220 | $12,660 | +$6,180 | $14,837 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $49 4.5% OTM over spot $46.91 18 Sep 2026 (10d, $2.16 mid) = $4,220 credit for the 10d cycle → $12,660/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $51.16) 72% EV / mo +$875 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 79% whole by 9mo vs 79% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,660/mo median; plan ~$5,209/mo after 68% keep · $7,876 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.4], measured ONLY among the 79% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$443 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $67 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.29/sh now → $2.33 mid-life (likely $3.07–$4.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,928 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $51 (overshoots $1.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49 is $10 below CC-SS $58.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.53/sh (~25% of the $2.11 collected) or spot ≥ $51.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $49)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,780 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,359 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $49): -$14,837 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,258 (+$11,522 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,938 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,320, the opportunity cost of earning $12,660/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 49 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.134 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$26,359 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,938
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $53 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.36 | 18/20 | $6,480 | $6,689 | 89% | 90% | +$3,264 | -$9,304 | 155.1% | $-9,276 (vs do-nothing $-4,338) |
| $52 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.47 | 14/20 | $6,580 | $7,713 | 85% | 87% | +$2,916 | -$8,482 | 141.4% | $-9,558 (vs do-nothing $-4,620) |
| $51 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.63 | 10/20 | $6,300 | $8,357 | 81% | 84% | +$2,484 | -$6,899 | 115.0% | $-9,078 (vs do-nothing $-4,140) |
| $53 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.08 | 20/20 | $6,480 | $6,227 | 78% | 81% | +$1,118 | -$8,897 | 148.3% | $-8,318 (vs do-nothing $-3,380) |
| $50 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.84 | 8/20 | $6,720 | $9,239 | 75% | 80% | +$2,314 | -$6,151 | 102.5% | $-8,882 (vs do-nothing $-3,944) |
| $52 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.28 | 17/20 | $6,528 | $6,968 | 75% | 79% | +$918 | -$8,923 | 148.7% | $-9,171 (vs do-nothing $-4,233) |
| $49.50 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.95 | 7/20 | $6,650 | $9,400 | 72% | 78% | +$2,042 | -$5,655 | 94.3% | $-8,662 (vs do-nothing $-3,724) |
| $52 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.91 | 19/20 | $6,404 | $6,382 | 71% | 76% | +$183 | -$8,775 | 146.3% | $-8,472 (vs do-nothing $-3,534) |
| $51 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.52 | 14/20 | $6,384 | $7,517 | 71% | 77% | +$738 | -$8,412 | 140.2% | $-9,488 (vs do-nothing $-4,550) |
| $49 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.10 | 6/20 | $6,600 | $9,581 | 69% | 76% | +$1,899 | -$5,057 | 84.3% | $-8,340 (vs do-nothing $-3,402) |
| $51 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.17 | 17/20 | $6,510 | $6,950 | 68% | 75% | +$93 | -$9,110 | 151.8% | $-9,358 (vs do-nothing $-4,420) |
| $50 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.81 | 12/20 | $6,516 | $8,111 | 67% | 74% | +$645 | -$8,062 | 134.4% | $-9,690 (vs do-nothing $-4,752) |
| $51 | 24d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.74 | 19/20 | $6,508 | $6,486 | 67% | 74% | $-158 | -$9,098 | 151.6% | $-8,795 (vs do-nothing $-3,857) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.47 | 15/20 | $6,538 | $7,441 | 65% | 73% | +$34 | -$9,088 | 151.5% | $-9,888 (vs do-nothing $-4,950) |
| $48.50 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.24 | 6/20 | $7,440 | $10,421 | 65% | 74% | +$1,867 | -$5,273 | 87.9% | $-8,556 (vs do-nothing $-3,618) |
| $50 | 24d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.05 | 17/20 | $6,481 | $6,922 | 64% | 72% | $-190 | -$9,314 | 155.2% | $-9,562 (vs do-nothing $-4,624) |
| $50 | 31d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.60 | 18/20 | $6,271 | $6,480 | 64% | 72% | $-232 | -$8,872 | 147.9% | $-8,844 (vs do-nothing $-3,906) |
| $50 | 38d | 16 Oct 2026 | $4.20 | 19/20 | $6,300 | $6,278 | 64% | 72% | $-98 | -$8,224 | 137.1% | $-7,921 (vs do-nothing $-2,983) |
| $49 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.11 | 10/20 | $6,330 | $8,387 | 63% | 72% | +$438 | -$7,419 | 123.6% | $-9,598 (vs do-nothing $-4,660) |
| $49 | 45d | 23 Oct 2026 | $4.95 | 19/20 | $6,270 | $6,248 | 62% | 71% | $-219 | -$8,699 | 145.0% | $-8,396 (vs do-nothing $-3,458) |
| $49 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.80 | 13/20 | $6,424 | $7,788 | 62% | 71% | $-29 | -$8,747 | 145.8% | $-10,099 (vs do-nothing $-5,161) |
| $49 | 38d | 16 Oct 2026 | $4.60 | 18/20 | $6,537 | $6,746 | 62% | 71% | $-51 | -$8,872 | 147.9% | $-8,844 (vs do-nothing $-3,906) |
| $49 | 24d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.35 | 15/20 | $6,281 | $7,184 | 62% | 71% | $-289 | -$9,268 | 154.5% | $-10,068 (vs do-nothing $-5,130) |
| $49 | 31d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.90 | 17/20 | $6,416 | $6,856 | 62% | 71% | $-332 | -$9,569 | 159.5% | $-9,817 (vs do-nothing $-4,879) |
| $48 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.42 | 5/20 | $7,100 | $10,312 | 61% | 72% | +$1,618 | -$4,554 | 75.9% | $-8,113 (vs do-nothing $-3,175) |
| $48 | 45d | 23 Oct 2026 | $5.35 | 18/20 | $6,420 | $6,629 | 60% | 71% | $-202 | -$9,322 | 155.4% | $-9,294 (vs do-nothing $-4,356) |
| $48 | 38d | 16 Oct 2026 | $5.00 | 16/20 | $6,316 | $6,987 | 59% | 70% | $-42 | -$8,846 | 147.4% | $-9,370 (vs do-nothing $-4,432) |
| $48 | 31d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.30 | 16/20 | $6,658 | $7,329 | 59% | 70% | $-310 | -$9,966 | 166.1% | $-10,490 (vs do-nothing $-5,552) |
| $48 | 24d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.80 | 14/20 | $6,650 | $7,783 | 59% | 69% | $-178 | -$9,420 | 157.0% | $-10,496 (vs do-nothing $-5,558) |
| $48 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.46 | 9/20 | $6,642 | $8,930 | 59% | 69% | +$303 | -$7,262 | 121.0% | $-9,717 (vs do-nothing $-4,779) |
| $48 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.15 | 12/20 | $6,671 | $8,266 | 59% | 69% | $-121 | -$8,854 | 147.6% | $-10,482 (vs do-nothing $-5,544) |
| $47 | 38d | 16 Oct 2026 | $5.35 | 15/20 | $6,336 | $7,238 | 57% | 69% | $-128 | -$9,268 | 154.5% | $-10,068 (vs do-nothing $-5,130) |
| $47.50 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.61 | 4/20 | $6,440 | $9,883 | 57% | 70% | +$1,288 | -$3,767 | 62.8% | $-7,602 (vs do-nothing $-2,664) |
| $47 | 45d | 23 Oct 2026 | $5.75 | 17/20 | $6,517 | $6,957 | 57% | 71% | +$855 | -$9,824 | 163.7% | $-10,072 (vs do-nothing $-5,134) |
| $47 | 31d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.70 | 14/20 | $6,368 | $7,501 | 56% | 68% | $-309 | -$9,560 | 159.3% | $-10,636 (vs do-nothing $-5,698) |
| $47.50 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.68 | 8/20 | $6,432 | $8,951 | 56% | 68% | +$289 | -$6,679 | 111.3% | $-9,410 (vs do-nothing $-4,472) |
| $47 | 24d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.15 | 13/20 | $6,744 | $8,108 | 56% | 68% | $-299 | -$9,592 | 159.9% | $-10,944 (vs do-nothing $-6,006) |
| $47 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.55 | 10/20 | $6,265 | $8,322 | 55% | 67% | $-163 | -$7,979 | 133.0% | $-10,158 (vs do-nothing $-5,220) |
| $46 | 38d | 16 Oct 2026 | $5.80 | 14/20 | $6,411 | $7,544 | 55% | 68% | $-123 | -$9,420 | 157.0% | $-10,496 (vs do-nothing $-5,558) |
| $47 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.88 | 8/20 | $6,912 | $9,431 | 54% | 67% | +$229 | -$6,919 | 115.3% | $-9,650 (vs do-nothing $-4,712) |
| $46 | 45d | 23 Oct 2026 | $6.30 | 15/20 | $6,300 | $7,202 | 54% | 70% | +$841 | -$9,343 | 155.7% | $-10,143 (vs do-nothing $-5,205) |
| $46 | 31d | 9 Oct 2026 | $5.20 | 13/20 | $6,542 | $7,906 | 54% | 67% | $-237 | -$9,527 | 158.8% | $-10,879 (vs do-nothing $-5,941) |
| $47 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.85 | 4/20 | $7,400 | $10,843 | 53% | 68% | +$1,378 | -$3,871 | 64.5% | $-7,706 (vs do-nothing $-2,768) |
| $46 | 24d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.65 | 11/20 | $6,394 | $8,220 | 53% | 67% | $-209 | -$8,666 | 144.4% | $-10,570 (vs do-nothing $-5,632) |
| $46.50 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.10 | 7/20 | $6,510 | $9,260 | 52% | 66% | +$159 | -$6,250 | 104.2% | $-9,257 (vs do-nothing $-4,319) |
| $46 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.05 | 9/20 | $6,432 | $8,721 | 51% | 66% | $-112 | -$7,631 | 127.2% | $-10,086 (vs do-nothing $-5,148) |
| $46 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.35 | 7/20 | $7,035 | $9,785 | 49% | 65% | +$152 | -$6,425 | 107.1% | $-9,432 (vs do-nothing $-4,494) |
| $46.50 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $2.07 | 4/20 | $8,280 | $11,723 | 48% | 66% | +$1,279 | -$3,983 | 66.4% | $-7,818 (vs do-nothing $-2,880) |
| $46 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $2.33 | 3/20 | $6,990 | $10,664 | 44% | 64% | +$922 | -$3,060 | 51.0% | $-7,170 (vs do-nothing $-2,232) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.