20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $58.40 (banked floor $56.14) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $11,057/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $317/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-32,060 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20x $60C 18 Sep 2026 | U13190865 | $0.40 | $806 | 2026-09-09 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 7d | 18 × $47.50 | 78% | $5,554 | $2,098 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $60 | 18 Sep | 7d | 36.7% | 99%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | -2pp | $76 | $326 | -$5,229 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $60 36.7% OTM over spot $43.88 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.06 mid) = $76 credit for the 7d cycle → $326/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $60) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $60.05) 99% EV / mo +$229 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -2pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 67% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-17/mo median; plan ~$-12/mo after 68% keep · $-21 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.4-2.6], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,472 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $71 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.38/sh now → $2.39 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $60 is at/above CC-SS $58.40: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $60.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $60)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,060 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,693 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $60): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$215 Total Position P&L @ SS: $419 (+$32,479 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,661 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$4,080, the opportunity cost of earning $326/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $51 | 18 Sep | 7d | 16.2% | 91%hist 96% | 19%hist 13% | +2pp | $520 | $2,229 | -$3,326 | $14,275 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $51 16.2% OTM over spot $43.88 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.29 mid) = $520 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,229/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $51.29) 92% EV / mo +$1,057 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,193/mo median; plan ~$811/mo after 68% keep · $4,323 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-2.9], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,114 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $60 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.57/sh now → $1.82 mid-life (likely $1.45–$2.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 307 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $52 (overshoots $1.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $7 below CC-SS $58.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $51.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,060 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,693 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $51): -$14,275 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,641 (+$18,419 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,661 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,980, the opportunity cost of earning $2,229/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 18 × $49 | 18 Sep | 7d | 11.7% | 85%hist 86% | 31%hist 31% | +6pp | $900 | $3,857 | -$1,697 | $16,015 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $49 11.7% OTM over spot $43.88 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.52 mid) = $900 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,857/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $49.52) 87% EV / mo +$1,731 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,957/mo median; plan ~$1,330/mo after 68% keep · $7,181 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-3.5], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,158 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $60 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.40/sh now → $1.70 mid-life (likely $1.53–$2.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 668 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $50 (overshoots $1.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49 is $9 below CC-SS $58.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $49.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $49)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,060 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,693 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $49): -$16,015 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$429 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,811 (+$16,249 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,661 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,150, the opportunity cost of earning $3,857/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $47.50 | 18 Sep | 7d | 8.3% | 78%hist 83% | 45%hist 39% | +6pp | $1,296 | $5,554 | — | $18,319 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $47.50 8.3% OTM over spot $43.88 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.76 mid) = $1,296 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,554/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $48.26) 82% EV / mo +$1,913 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,532/mo median; plan ~$1,722/mo after 68% keep · $9,152 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.6], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,608 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $60 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.28/sh now → $1.61 mid-life (likely $1.73–$2.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,002 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $49 (overshoots $1.07). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47.50 is $11 below CC-SS $58.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.72 collected) or spot ≥ $48.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,060 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,693 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $47.50): -$18,319 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$429 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,115 (+$13,945 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,661 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,454, the opportunity cost of earning $5,554/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $45 | 18 Sep | 7d | 2.6% | 61%hist 65% | 80%hist 79% | +8pp | $2,646 | $11,340 | +$5,786 | $21,469 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $45 2.6% OTM over spot $43.88 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $1.48 mid) = $2,646 credit for the 7d cycle → $11,340/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $46.48) 72% EV / mo +$2,698 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,680/mo median; plan ~$2,503/mo after 68% keep · $11,563 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.7-3.4], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 62% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $55 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.09/sh now → $1.48 mid-life (likely $1.96–$2.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,866 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $46 (overshoots $1.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $13 below CC-SS $58.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.37/sh (~25% of the $1.47 collected) or spot ≥ $46.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,060 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,693 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $45): -$21,469 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$429 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,265 (+$10,795 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,661 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,604, the opportunity cost of earning $11,340/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 26 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.126 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$32,693 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,661
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $47.50 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.72 | 18/20 | $5,554 | $5,344 | 78% | 82% | +$1,913 | -$18,319 | 305.3% | $-18,115 (vs do-nothing $-14,454) |
| $47 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.84 | 16/20 | $5,760 | $5,657 | 75% | 80% | +$1,892 | -$16,892 | 281.5% | $-17,117 (vs do-nothing $-13,456) |
| $47.50 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.32 | 20/20 | $5,657 | $5,340 | 72% | 78% | +$1,445 | -$19,155 | 319.2% | $-18,521 (vs do-nothing $-14,860) |
| $46.50 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.96 | 14/20 | $5,760 | $5,764 | 72% | 78% | +$1,723 | -$15,312 | 255.2% | $-15,967 (vs do-nothing $-12,306) |
| $47 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.46 | 18/20 | $5,631 | $5,421 | 70% | 77% | +$1,324 | -$17,887 | 298.1% | $-17,683 (vs do-nothing $-14,022) |
| $46 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.05 | 13/20 | $5,850 | $5,908 | 69% | 76% | +$1,390 | -$14,752 | 245.9% | $-15,621 (vs do-nothing $-11,960) |
| $47 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.12 | 19/20 | $5,754 | $5,491 | 68% | 76% | +$1,357 | -$17,627 | 293.8% | $-17,208 (vs do-nothing $-13,547) |
| $46.50 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.61 | 17/20 | $5,865 | $5,709 | 68% | 76% | +$1,292 | -$17,488 | 291.5% | $-17,499 (vs do-nothing $-13,838) |
| $47 | 28d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.60 | 20/20 | $5,571 | $5,254 | 66% | 75% | +$1,129 | -$17,595 | 293.2% | $-16,961 (vs do-nothing $-13,300) |
| $45.50 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.21 | 11/20 | $5,704 | $5,869 | 65% | 74% | +$1,231 | -$12,856 | 214.3% | $-14,155 (vs do-nothing $-10,494) |
| $46 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.79 | 15/20 | $5,754 | $5,704 | 65% | 74% | +$1,224 | -$15,911 | 265.2% | $-16,351 (vs do-nothing $-12,690) |
| $46 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.43 | 16/20 | $5,554 | $5,451 | 63% | 73% | +$1,118 | -$15,948 | 265.8% | $-16,173 (vs do-nothing $-12,512) |
| $46 | 28d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.91 | 18/20 | $5,612 | $5,402 | 63% | 73% | +$971 | -$17,077 | 284.6% | $-16,873 (vs do-nothing $-13,212) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45.50 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.97 | 14/20 | $5,910 | $5,914 | 62% | 73% | +$1,173 | -$15,298 | 255.0% | $-15,953 (vs do-nothing $-12,292) |
| $45 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.47 | 9/20 | $5,670 | $5,942 | 61% | 72% | +$1,349 | -$10,735 | 178.9% | $-12,463 (vs do-nothing $-8,802) |
| $45 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.21 | 12/20 | $5,683 | $5,794 | 60% | 71% | +$1,142 | -$13,425 | 223.7% | $-14,509 (vs do-nothing $-10,848) |
| $45 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.81 | 14/20 | $5,620 | $5,624 | 59% | 71% | +$989 | -$14,822 | 247.0% | $-15,477 (vs do-nothing $-11,816) |
| $45 | 28d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.30 | 16/20 | $5,657 | $5,554 | 59% | 71% | +$882 | -$16,156 | 269.3% | $-16,381 (vs do-nothing $-12,720) |
| $44.50 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.60 | 9/20 | $6,171 | $6,444 | 57% | 70% | +$1,095 | -$11,068 | 184.5% | $-12,796 (vs do-nothing $-9,135) |
| $44.50 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.44 | 11/20 | $5,751 | $5,916 | 57% | 70% | +$1,107 | -$12,603 | 210.1% | $-13,902 (vs do-nothing $-10,241) |
| $44 | 28d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.75 | 14/20 | $5,625 | $5,629 | 55% | 70% | +$804 | -$14,906 | 248.4% | $-15,561 (vs do-nothing $-11,900) |
| $44 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.20 | 13/20 | $5,943 | $6,001 | 54% | 69% | +$840 | -$14,557 | 242.6% | $-15,426 (vs do-nothing $-11,765) |
| $44 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.58 | 10/20 | $5,529 | $5,747 | 54% | 69% | +$829 | -$11,817 | 197.0% | $-13,331 (vs do-nothing $-9,670) |
| $44 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.82 | 8/20 | $6,240 | $6,566 | 53% | 68% | +$968 | -$10,062 | 167.7% | $-12,005 (vs do-nothing $-8,344) |
| $43.50 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.82 | 10/20 | $6,043 | $6,261 | 51% | 67% | +$825 | -$12,077 | 201.3% | $-13,591 (vs do-nothing $-9,930) |
| $43.50 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.13 | 7/20 | $6,390 | $6,769 | 49% | 67% | +$1,033 | -$8,937 | 149.0% | $-11,095 (vs do-nothing $-7,434) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.