20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $58.48 (banked floor $56.23) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $14,073/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $322/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-34,650 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20x $60C 18 Sep 2026 | U13190865 | $0.40 | $806 | 2026-09-09 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 4d | 18 × $47 | 83% | $7,290 | $4,206 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 11d | 20 × $46.50 | 73% | $7,200 | $866 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 11 × $55 | 18 Sep | 4d | 28.5% | 99%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | -0pp | $44 | $330 | -$6,960 | $3,785 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 11 × $55 28.5% OTM over spot $42.81 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.04 mid) = $44 credit for the 4d cycle → $330/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $55.05) 99% EV / mo +$251 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -0pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $346/mo median; plan ~$235/mo after 68% keep · $1,511 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.8], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,224 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $66 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 11 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.91/sh now → $2.06 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $3 below CC-SS $58.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $55.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,322 − CC assignment net of premium (11 × $55): -$3,785 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $56): -$2,080 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,193 (+$29,457 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,950 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,243, the opportunity cost of earning $330/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $49 | 18 Sep | 4d | 14.5% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | +5pp | $520 | $3,900 | -$3,390 | $18,442 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $49 14.5% OTM over spot $42.81 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.30 mid) = $520 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $49.30) 92% EV / mo +$2,270 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,085/mo median; plan ~$1,418/mo after 68% keep · $6,875 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.5], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,924 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $59 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.43/sh now → $1.72 mid-life (likely $1.48–$2.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 311 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $50 (overshoots $1.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49 is $9 below CC-SS $58.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $49.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $49)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,322 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $49): -$18,442 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,770 (+$16,880 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,950 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,820, the opportunity cost of earning $3,900/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 20 × $48.50 | 18 Sep | 4d | 13.3% | 90%hist 86% | 21%hist 26% | +5pp | $620 | $4,650 | -$2,640 | $19,342 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48.50 13.3% OTM over spot $42.81 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.35 mid) = $620 credit for the 4d cycle → $4,650/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $48.85) 91% EV / mo +$2,587 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,622/mo median; plan ~$1,783/mo after 68% keep · $7,876 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.6-3.0], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,770 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $59 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.40/sh now → $1.70 mid-life (likely $1.49–$2.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 444 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $50 (overshoots $1.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $10 below CC-SS $58.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $48.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,322 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48.50): -$19,342 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,670 (+$15,980 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,950 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,720, the opportunity cost of earning $4,650/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $47 | 18 Sep | 4d | 9.8% | 83%hist 86% | 34%hist 30% | +9pp | $972 | $7,290 | — | $19,694 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $47 9.8% OTM over spot $42.81 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.55 mid) = $972 credit for the 4d cycle → $7,290/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $47.55) 86% EV / mo +$3,556 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 73% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,765/mo median; plan ~$2,560/mo after 68% keep · $10,411 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.6-3.0], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,935 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $58 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.28/sh now → $1.62 mid-life (likely $1.66–$2.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 715 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $48 (overshoots $1.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $11 below CC-SS $58.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.54 collected) or spot ≥ $47.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,322 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $47): -$19,694 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$462 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,484 (+$15,166 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,950 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,534, the opportunity cost of earning $7,290/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $45 | 18 Sep | 4d | 5.1% | 71%hist 84% | 61%hist 59% | +10pp | $1,938 | $14,535 | +$7,245 | $23,676 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $45 5.1% OTM over spot $42.81 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $1.04 mid) = $1,938 credit for the 4d cycle → $14,535/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $46.03) 78% EV / mo +$5,003 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 77% whole by 9mo vs 67% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,613/mo median; plan ~$3,817/mo after 68% keep · $12,322 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.6-2.5], measured ONLY among the 77% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$934 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $56 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.14/sh now → $1.51 mid-life (likely $1.85–$2.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,300 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $46 (overshoots $1.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $13 below CC-SS $58.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.02 collected) or spot ≥ $46.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,322 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $45): -$23,676 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$231 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,235 (+$11,415 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,950 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,285, the opportunity cost of earning $14,535/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 20 × $61 | 25 Sep | 11d | 42.5% | 98%hist 96% | 4%hist 3% | -1pp | $120 | $327 | -$6,873 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $61 42.5% OTM over spot $42.81 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $0.10 mid) = $120 credit for the 11d cycle → $327/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $61) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $61.09) 98% EV / mo +$190 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-82/mo median; plan ~$-56/mo after 68% keep · $-107 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.6-2.7], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,885 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $68 @ 78% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.95/sh now → $3.50 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $61 is at/above CC-SS $58.48: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $61.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $61)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,322 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $61): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $672 (+$35,322 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,950 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$4,622, the opportunity cost of earning $327/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $52 | 25 Sep | 11d | 21.5% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 26% | +3pp | $820 | $2,236 | -$4,964 | $12,142 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $52 21.5% OTM over spot $42.81 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $0.45 mid) = $820 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,236/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $52.45) 91% EV / mo +$1,051 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,101/mo median; plan ~$749/mo after 68% keep · $4,415 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.7], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,566 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $58 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.81/sh now → $2.69 mid-life (likely $2.16–$3.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 378 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $53 (overshoots $1.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $6 below CC-SS $58.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $52.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,322 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $52): -$12,142 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,470 (+$23,180 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,950 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,520, the opportunity cost of earning $2,236/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 20 × $48.50 | 25 Sep | 11d | 13.3% | 81%hist 86% | 39%hist 30% | +6pp | $1,760 | $4,800 | -$2,400 | $18,202 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48.50 13.3% OTM over spot $42.81 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $0.93 mid) = $1,760 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $49.43) 84% EV / mo +$1,851 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,119/mo median; plan ~$1,441/mo after 68% keep · $8,586 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.5], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,052 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $57 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.40/sh now → $2.41 mid-life (likely $2.38–$3.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.88/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 854 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $50 (overshoots $1.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $10 below CC-SS $58.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.88 collected) or spot ≥ $49.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,322 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48.50): -$18,202 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,530 (+$17,120 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,950 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,580, the opportunity cost of earning $4,800/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $46.50 | 25 Sep | 11d | 8.6% | 73%hist 84% | 56%hist 44% | +6pp | $2,640 | $7,200 | — | $21,322 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $46.50 8.6% OTM over spot $42.81 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $1.37 mid) = $2,640 credit for the 11d cycle → $7,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $47.87) 79% EV / mo +$2,278 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,021/mo median; plan ~$2,054/mo after 68% keep · $9,708 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-3.0], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,857 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $57 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.18/sh now → $2.25 mid-life (likely $2.52–$3.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,322 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $48 (overshoots $1.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46.50 is $12 below CC-SS $58.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.32 collected) or spot ≥ $47.87 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,322 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $46.50): -$21,322 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,650 (+$14,000 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,950 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,700, the opportunity cost of earning $7,200/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $43 | 25 Sep | 11d | 0.4% | 54%hist 70% | 97%hist 90% | +12pp | $5,160 | $14,073 | +$6,873 | $25,802 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $43 0.4% OTM over spot $42.81 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $2.63 mid) = $5,160 credit for the 11d cycle → $14,073/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $45.63) 69% EV / mo +$2,752 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,290/mo median; plan ~$2,917/mo after 68% keep · $12,136 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-3.1], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 80% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,190 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $55 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.81/sh now → $1.99 mid-life (likely $2.81–$3.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,411 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $44 (overshoots $1.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $15 below CC-SS $58.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.65/sh (~25% of the $2.58 collected) or spot ≥ $45.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,322 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $43): -$25,802 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,130 (+$9,520 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,950 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,180, the opportunity cost of earning $14,073/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 33 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.127 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$35,322 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,950
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $47 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.54 | 18/20 | $7,290 | $7,060 | 83% | 86% | +$3,556 | -$19,694 | 328.2% | $-19,484 (vs do-nothing $-15,534) |
| $46.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.63 | 15/20 | $7,087 | $6,997 | 81% | 84% | +$3,191 | -$17,026 | 283.8% | $-17,510 (vs do-nothing $-13,560) |
| $46 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.74 | 13/20 | $7,215 | $7,217 | 77% | 82% | +$2,925 | -$15,263 | 254.4% | $-16,209 (vs do-nothing $-12,259) |
| $45.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.87 | 11/20 | $7,178 | $7,272 | 74% | 80% | +$2,685 | -$13,322 | 222.0% | $-14,730 (vs do-nothing $-10,780) |
| $46.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.32 | 20/20 | $7,200 | $6,878 | 73% | 79% | +$2,278 | -$21,322 | 355.4% | $-20,650 (vs do-nothing $-16,700) |
| $46 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.47 | 18/20 | $7,216 | $6,987 | 71% | 78% | +$2,197 | -$19,820 | 330.3% | $-19,610 (vs do-nothing $-15,660) |
| $45 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.02 | 10/20 | $7,650 | $7,791 | 71% | 78% | +$2,633 | -$12,461 | 207.7% | $-14,100 (vs do-nothing $-10,150) |
| $45.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.61 | 17/20 | $7,465 | $7,281 | 68% | 76% | +$2,101 | -$19,331 | 322.2% | $-19,352 (vs do-nothing $-15,402) |
| $44.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.17 | 9/20 | $7,897 | $8,085 | 67% | 75% | +$2,383 | -$11,530 | 192.2% | $-13,400 (vs do-nothing $-9,450) |
| $45.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.27 | 19/20 | $7,188 | $6,912 | 66% | 75% | +$1,807 | -$20,351 | 339.2% | $-19,910 (vs do-nothing $-15,960) |
| $45 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.77 | 15/20 | $7,241 | $7,150 | 66% | 75% | +$1,897 | -$17,566 | 292.8% | $-18,050 (vs do-nothing $-14,100) |
| $45 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.43 | 18/20 | $7,290 | $7,060 | 64% | 74% | +$1,699 | -$19,892 | 331.5% | $-19,682 (vs do-nothing $-15,732) |
| $45 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.00 | 20/20 | $7,200 | $6,878 | 63% | 74% | +$1,611 | -$20,962 | 349.4% | $-20,290 (vs do-nothing $-16,340) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.96 | 14/20 | $7,484 | $7,439 | 63% | 74% | +$1,864 | -$16,829 | 280.5% | $-17,544 (vs do-nothing $-13,594) |
| $44 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.36 | 7/20 | $7,140 | $7,420 | 63% | 73% | +$2,020 | -$9,185 | 153.1% | $-11,517 (vs do-nothing $-7,567) |
| $44.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.62 | 17/20 | $7,423 | $7,240 | 62% | 73% | +$1,641 | -$19,314 | 321.9% | $-19,335 (vs do-nothing $-15,385) |
| $44 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.15 | 12/20 | $7,036 | $7,085 | 60% | 72% | +$1,621 | -$14,797 | 246.6% | $-15,974 (vs do-nothing $-12,024) |
| $44 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.82 | 15/20 | $7,050 | $6,959 | 59% | 72% | +$1,469 | -$17,491 | 291.5% | $-17,975 (vs do-nothing $-14,025) |
| $44 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.35 | 18/20 | $7,236 | $7,006 | 59% | 72% | +$1,305 | -$20,036 | 333.9% | $-19,826 (vs do-nothing $-15,876) |
| $43.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.56 | 7/20 | $8,190 | $8,470 | 58% | 71% | +$2,030 | -$9,395 | 156.6% | $-11,727 (vs do-nothing $-7,777) |
| $43.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.38 | 11/20 | $7,140 | $7,235 | 57% | 71% | +$1,573 | -$13,861 | 231.0% | $-15,269 (vs do-nothing $-11,319) |
| $43.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.00 | 15/20 | $7,500 | $7,409 | 57% | 71% | +$1,405 | -$17,971 | 299.5% | $-18,455 (vs do-nothing $-14,505) |
| $43 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.80 | 16/20 | $7,296 | $7,159 | 55% | 70% | +$1,201 | -$18,690 | 311.5% | $-18,942 (vs do-nothing $-14,992) |
| $43 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.25 | 13/20 | $7,042 | $7,044 | 55% | 70% | +$1,281 | -$15,900 | 265.0% | $-16,846 (vs do-nothing $-12,896) |
| $43 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.58 | 10/20 | $7,036 | $7,178 | 54% | 69% | +$1,376 | -$12,901 | 215.0% | $-14,540 (vs do-nothing $-10,590) |
| $43 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.78 | 6/20 | $8,010 | $8,337 | 54% | 69% | +$1,713 | -$8,221 | 137.0% | $-10,784 (vs do-nothing $-6,834) |
| $42.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.50 | 13/20 | $7,583 | $7,585 | 52% | 69% | +$1,312 | -$16,225 | 270.4% | $-17,171 (vs do-nothing $-13,221) |
| $42 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.30 | 14/20 | $7,224 | $7,180 | 51% | 68% | +$1,089 | -$17,053 | 284.2% | $-17,768 (vs do-nothing $-13,818) |
| $42.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.84 | 10/20 | $7,745 | $7,887 | 51% | 68% | +$1,433 | -$13,141 | 219.0% | $-14,780 (vs do-nothing $-10,830) |
| $42 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.75 | 12/20 | $7,500 | $7,549 | 50% | 68% | +$1,208 | -$15,277 | 254.6% | $-16,454 (vs do-nothing $-12,504) |
| $42.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.97 | 5/20 | $7,388 | $7,761 | 49% | 67% | +$1,282 | -$7,005 | 116.8% | $-9,800 (vs do-nothing $-5,850) |
| $42 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.10 | 9/20 | $7,609 | $7,797 | 48% | 67% | +$1,293 | -$12,043 | 200.7% | $-13,913 (vs do-nothing $-9,963) |
| $42 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.30 | 5/20 | $8,625 | $8,998 | 45% | 65% | +$1,430 | -$7,090 | 118.2% | $-9,885 (vs do-nothing $-5,935) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.