20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $58.57 (banked floor $56.32) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,059/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $300/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-34,880 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20x $60C 18 Sep 2026 | U13190865 | $0.40 | $806 | 2026-09-09 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 3d | 17 × $47 | 86% | $5,100 | $4,199 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 10d | 19 × $47 | 77% | $5,187 | $893 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 15 × $55 | 18 Sep | 3d | 28.5% | 99%hist 96% | 2%hist 3% | -0pp | $30 | $300 | -$4,800 | $5,324 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $55 28.5% OTM over spot $42.81 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.03 mid) = $30 credit for the 3d cycle → $300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $55.02) 99% EV / mo +$211 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -0pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $106/mo median; plan ~$72/mo after 68% keep · $145 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,327 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $67 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.22/sh now → $1.57 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $4 below CC-SS $58.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $55.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,880 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,522 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $55): -$5,324 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $56): -$1,230 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,912 (+$28,968 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,277 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,635, the opportunity cost of earning $300/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 17 × $48 | 18 Sep | 3d | 12.1% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 14% | +4pp | $340 | $3,400 | -$1,700 | $17,628 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $48 12.1% OTM over spot $42.81 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.22 mid) = $340 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $48.22) 91% EV / mo +$1,558 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,848/mo median; plan ~$1,257/mo after 68% keep · $7,728 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.6-3.4], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,816 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $59 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.79/sh now → $1.27 mid-life (likely $1.16–$2.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 309 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $49 (overshoots $1.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $11 below CC-SS $58.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $48.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,880 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,522 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $48): -$17,628 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $56): -$738 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,724 (+$17,156 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,277 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,447, the opportunity cost of earning $3,400/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $48 | 18 Sep | 3d | 12.1% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 14% | +6pp | $400 | $4,000 | -$1,100 | $20,739 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48 12.1% OTM over spot $42.81 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.22 mid) = $400 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $48.22) 91% EV / mo +$1,833 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,138/mo median; plan ~$1,454/mo after 68% keep · $7,828 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-3.0], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,136 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $59 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.79/sh now → $1.27 mid-life (likely $1.23–$2.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 315 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $49 (overshoots $1.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $11 below CC-SS $58.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $48.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,880 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,522 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48): -$20,739 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,097 (+$14,783 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,277 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,820, the opportunity cost of earning $4,000/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 17 × $47 | 18 Sep | 3d | 9.8% | 86%hist 86% | 28%hist 26% | +8pp | $510 | $5,100 | — | $19,158 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $47 9.8% OTM over spot $42.81 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.32 mid) = $510 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $47.33) 88% EV / mo +$2,051 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,739/mo median; plan ~$1,863/mo after 68% keep · $8,189 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.8], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,576 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $58 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.74/sh now → $1.23 mid-life (likely $1.18–$2.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 480 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $48 (overshoots $1.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $12 below CC-SS $58.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $47.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,880 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,522 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $47): -$19,158 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $56): -$738 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,254 (+$15,626 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,277 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,977, the opportunity cost of earning $5,100/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $45.50 | 18 Sep | 3d | 6.3% | 77%hist 84% | 47%hist 39% | +12pp | $1,008 | $10,080 | +$4,980 | $22,517 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $45.50 6.3% OTM over spot $42.81 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.58 mid) = $1,008 credit for the 3d cycle → $10,080/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $46.09) 81% EV / mo +$3,273 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 75% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,238/mo median; plan ~$2,882/mo after 68% keep · $11,207 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.0], measured ONLY among the 75% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,093 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $59 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.65/sh now → $1.17 mid-life (likely $1.32–$2.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 899 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $47 (overshoots $1.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45.50 is $13 below CC-SS $58.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.56 collected) or spot ≥ $46.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,880 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,522 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $45.50): -$22,517 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$492 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,367 (+$12,513 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,277 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,090, the opportunity cost of earning $10,080/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 13 × $58 | 25 Sep | 10d | 35.5% | 97%hist 96% | 6%hist 3% | -0pp | $104 | $312 | -$4,875 | $636 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 13 × $58 35.5% OTM over spot $42.81 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.11 mid) = $104 credit for the 10d cycle → $312/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $58) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $58.12) 97% EV / mo +$171 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -0pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $162/mo median; plan ~$110/mo after 68% keep · $517 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.7], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,555 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $64 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.98/sh now → $2.81 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $58 is $1 below CC-SS $58.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $58.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $58)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,880 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,522 − CC assignment net of premium (13 × $58): -$636 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $56): -$1,722 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,716 (+$33,164 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,277 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$2,561, the opportunity cost of earning $312/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $52 | 25 Sep | 10d | 21.5% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | +2pp | $580 | $1,740 | -$3,447 | $12,559 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $52 21.5% OTM over spot $42.81 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.33 mid) = $580 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,740/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $52.34) 92% EV / mo +$740 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $903/mo median; plan ~$614/mo after 68% keep · $3,069 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.2], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,117 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $58 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.32/sh now → $2.35 mid-life (likely $1.87–$3.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 259 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $53 (overshoots $1.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $7 below CC-SS $58.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $52.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,880 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,522 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $52): -$12,559 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,917 (+$22,963 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,277 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,640, the opportunity cost of earning $1,740/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 20 × $49 | 25 Sep | 10d | 14.5% | 84%hist 86% | 33%hist 30% | +3pp | $1,160 | $3,480 | -$1,707 | $17,979 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $49 14.5% OTM over spot $42.81 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.63 mid) = $1,160 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $49.63) 86% EV / mo +$1,163 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,604/mo median; plan ~$1,091/mo after 68% keep · $6,701 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.5], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,101 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $56 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.01/sh now → $2.13 mid-life (likely $1.94–$3.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 711 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $50 (overshoots $1.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49 is $10 below CC-SS $58.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.58 collected) or spot ≥ $49.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $49)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,880 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,522 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $49): -$17,979 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,337 (+$17,543 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,277 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,060, the opportunity cost of earning $3,480/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $47 | 25 Sep | 10d | 9.8% | 77%hist 84% | 49%hist 39% | +8pp | $1,729 | $5,187 | — | $20,253 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $47 9.8% OTM over spot $42.81 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.96 mid) = $1,729 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,187/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $47.95) 81% EV / mo +$1,339 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,151/mo median; plan ~$1,463/mo after 68% keep · $8,811 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.9-3.5], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,054 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $55 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.81/sh now → $1.99 mid-life (likely $2.09–$3.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.91/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,101 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $48 (overshoots $1.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $12 below CC-SS $58.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.91 collected) or spot ≥ $47.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,880 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,522 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $47): -$20,253 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$246 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,857 (+$15,023 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,277 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,580, the opportunity cost of earning $5,187/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $44 | 25 Sep | 10d | 2.8% | 61%hist 65% | 83%hist 79% | +9pp | $3,363 | $10,089 | +$4,902 | $24,319 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $44 2.8% OTM over spot $42.81 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $1.83 mid) = $3,363 credit for the 10d cycle → $10,089/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $45.83) 71% EV / mo +$1,571 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,096/mo median; plan ~$2,105/mo after 68% keep · $11,099 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.7-3.4], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$38 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $56 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.53/sh now → $1.79 mid-life (likely $2.42–$3.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,043 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $45 (overshoots $1.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $15 below CC-SS $58.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.44/sh (~25% of the $1.77 collected) or spot ≥ $45.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,880 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,522 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $44): -$24,319 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$246 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,923 (+$10,957 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,277 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,646, the opportunity cost of earning $10,089/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 38 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.127 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$35,522 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,277
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $47 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.30 | 17/20 | $5,100 | $4,899 | 86% | 88% | +$2,051 | -$19,158 | 319.3% | $-19,254 (vs do-nothing $-14,977) |
| $46.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.36 | 14/20 | $5,040 | $4,938 | 84% | 86% | +$1,810 | -$16,393 | 273.2% | $-17,227 (vs do-nothing $-12,950) |
| $46 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.45 | 12/20 | $5,400 | $5,364 | 81% | 84% | +$1,848 | -$14,543 | 242.4% | $-15,869 (vs do-nothing $-11,592) |
| $45.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.56 | 9/20 | $5,040 | $5,103 | 77% | 81% | +$1,637 | -$11,258 | 187.6% | $-13,322 (vs do-nothing $-9,045) |
| $47 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.91 | 19/20 | $5,187 | $4,920 | 77% | 81% | +$1,339 | -$20,253 | 337.5% | $-19,857 (vs do-nothing $-15,580) |
| $46.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.02 | 17/20 | $5,202 | $5,001 | 74% | 79% | +$1,253 | -$18,784 | 313.1% | $-18,880 (vs do-nothing $-14,603) |
| $45 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.67 | 8/20 | $5,360 | $5,456 | 73% | 79% | +$1,518 | -$10,320 | 172.0% | $-12,629 (vs do-nothing $-8,352) |
| $47 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.45 | 20/20 | $5,118 | $4,818 | 73% | 78% | +$1,092 | -$20,239 | 337.3% | $-19,597 (vs do-nothing $-15,320) |
| $46 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.13 | 15/20 | $5,085 | $4,950 | 72% | 78% | +$1,094 | -$17,159 | 286.0% | $-17,747 (vs do-nothing $-13,470) |
| $46.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.61 | 18/20 | $5,114 | $4,880 | 71% | 77% | +$1,082 | -$18,827 | 313.8% | $-18,677 (vs do-nothing $-14,400) |
| $45.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.29 | 13/20 | $5,031 | $4,962 | 69% | 76% | +$1,077 | -$15,313 | 255.2% | $-16,393 (vs do-nothing $-12,116) |
| $44.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.80 | 7/20 | $5,600 | $5,729 | 69% | 76% | +$1,361 | -$9,289 | 154.8% | $-11,844 (vs do-nothing $-7,567) |
| $46 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.75 | 17/20 | $5,250 | $5,049 | 69% | 76% | +$1,021 | -$18,393 | 306.5% | $-18,489 (vs do-nothing $-14,212) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.24 | 18/20 | $5,040 | $4,806 | 67% | 75% | +$824 | -$18,593 | 309.9% | $-18,443 (vs do-nothing $-14,166) |
| $45 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.44 | 12/20 | $5,184 | $5,148 | 67% | 75% | +$1,020 | -$14,555 | 242.6% | $-15,881 (vs do-nothing $-11,604) |
| $45.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.88 | 16/20 | $5,308 | $5,140 | 67% | 75% | +$897 | -$17,903 | 298.4% | $-18,245 (vs do-nothing $-13,968) |
| $45 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.10 | 14/20 | $5,188 | $5,086 | 64% | 74% | +$920 | -$16,057 | 267.6% | $-16,891 (vs do-nothing $-12,614) |
| $44 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.95 | 6/20 | $5,700 | $5,862 | 64% | 73% | +$1,157 | -$8,172 | 136.2% | $-10,973 (vs do-nothing $-6,696) |
| $44.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.61 | 11/20 | $5,313 | $5,310 | 64% | 73% | +$969 | -$13,705 | 228.4% | $-15,277 (vs do-nothing $-11,000) |
| $45 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.52 | 16/20 | $5,040 | $4,872 | 63% | 73% | +$726 | -$17,679 | 294.7% | $-18,021 (vs do-nothing $-13,744) |
| $44.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.23 | 13/20 | $5,116 | $5,047 | 62% | 72% | +$743 | -$15,391 | 256.5% | $-16,471 (vs do-nothing $-12,194) |
| $44 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.77 | 10/20 | $5,310 | $5,340 | 61% | 71% | +$827 | -$12,799 | 213.3% | $-14,617 (vs do-nothing $-10,340) |
| $44 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.42 | 12/20 | $5,125 | $5,089 | 60% | 71% | +$680 | -$14,579 | 243.0% | $-15,905 (vs do-nothing $-11,628) |
| $44 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.88 | 14/20 | $5,040 | $4,938 | 59% | 71% | +$619 | -$16,365 | 272.8% | $-17,199 (vs do-nothing $-12,922) |
| $43.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.14 | 5/20 | $5,700 | $5,895 | 59% | 71% | +$1,013 | -$6,965 | 116.1% | $-10,012 (vs do-nothing $-5,735) |
| $43.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.97 | 9/20 | $5,319 | $5,382 | 57% | 70% | +$751 | -$11,789 | 196.5% | $-13,853 (vs do-nothing $-9,576) |
| $43.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.63 | 11/20 | $5,105 | $5,102 | 57% | 70% | +$630 | -$13,683 | 228.1% | $-15,255 (vs do-nothing $-10,978) |
| $43 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.30 | 13/20 | $5,362 | $5,294 | 55% | 69% | +$573 | -$15,950 | 265.8% | $-17,030 (vs do-nothing $-12,753) |
| $43 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.85 | 10/20 | $5,029 | $5,059 | 55% | 68% | +$570 | -$12,719 | 212.0% | $-14,537 (vs do-nothing $-10,260) |
| $43 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.17 | 8/20 | $5,208 | $5,304 | 54% | 68% | +$626 | -$10,720 | 178.7% | $-13,029 (vs do-nothing $-8,752) |
| $43 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.34 | 4/20 | $5,360 | $5,588 | 54% | 68% | +$765 | -$5,692 | 94.9% | $-8,985 (vs do-nothing $-4,708) |
| $42.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.00 | 10/20 | $5,294 | $5,324 | 52% | 67% | +$417 | -$13,069 | 217.8% | $-14,887 (vs do-nothing $-10,610) |
| $42.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.41 | 7/20 | $5,061 | $5,190 | 51% | 67% | +$552 | -$9,562 | 159.4% | $-12,117 (vs do-nothing $-7,840) |
| $42 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.85 | 11/20 | $5,294 | $5,291 | 51% | 67% | +$586 | -$13,991 | 233.2% | $-15,563 (vs do-nothing $-11,286) |
| $42 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.20 | 9/20 | $5,082 | $5,145 | 49% | 66% | +$293 | -$12,032 | 200.5% | $-14,096 (vs do-nothing $-9,819) |
| $42.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.55 | 4/20 | $6,200 | $6,428 | 48% | 65% | +$631 | -$5,808 | 96.8% | $-9,101 (vs do-nothing $-4,824) |
| $42 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.68 | 7/20 | $5,628 | $5,757 | 47% | 65% | +$574 | -$9,723 | 162.0% | $-12,278 (vs do-nothing $-8,001) |
| $42 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.84 | 3/20 | $5,520 | $5,781 | 43% | 63% | +$515 | -$4,419 | 73.6% | $-7,958 (vs do-nothing $-3,681) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.