20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $58.15 (banked floor $55.90) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $11,175/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $332/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-34,980 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20x $60C 18 Sep 2026 | U13190865 | $0.40 | $806 | 2026-09-09 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 2d | 20 × $47 | 92% | $5,700 | $5,263 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 9d | 19 × $46.50 | 78% | $5,827 | $1,398 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 12 × $52 | 18 Sep | 2d | 22.8% | 99%hist 96% | 2%hist 3% | -0pp | $24 | $360 | -$5,340 | $7,360 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 12 × $52 22.8% OTM over spot $42.35 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.03 mid) = $24 credit for the 2d cycle → $360/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $52.03) 99% EV / mo +$277 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -0pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $429/mo median; plan ~$292/mo after 68% keep · $975 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.2], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,696 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $65 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.03/sh now → $1.43 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $6 below CC-SS $58.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $52.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,642 − CC assignment net of premium (12 × $52): -$7,360 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $56): -$1,483 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,181 (+$26,799 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,045 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,136, the opportunity cost of earning $360/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $51 | 25 Sep | 9d | 20.4% | 92%hist 96% | 17%hist 14% | +1pp | $580 | $1,933 | -$3,767 | $13,727 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $51 20.4% OTM over spot $42.35 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.32 mid) = $580 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,933/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $51.33) 93% EV / mo +$990 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $975/mo median; plan ~$663/mo after 68% keep · $3,846 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,071 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $58 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.29/sh now → $2.33 mid-life (likely $1.89–$3.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 322 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $52 (overshoots $1.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $7 below CC-SS $58.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $51.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,642 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $51): -$13,727 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,065 (+$21,915 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,045 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,020, the opportunity cost of earning $1,933/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 18 × $47.50 | 18 Sep | 2d | 12.1% | 94%hist 96% | 13%hist 14% | +6pp | $252 | $3,780 | -$1,920 | $18,924 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $47.50 12.1% OTM over spot $42.35 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.17 mid) = $252 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,780/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $47.66) 94% EV / mo +$2,449 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,306/mo median; plan ~$1,568/mo after 68% keep · $8,943 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.5], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,988 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $58 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.76/sh now → $1.24 mid-life (likely $1.33–$2.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 165 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $49 (overshoots $1.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47.50 is $11 below CC-SS $58.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $47.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,642 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $47.50): -$18,924 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$371 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,633 (+$16,347 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,045 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,588, the opportunity cost of earning $3,780/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $47 | 18 Sep | 2d | 11.0% | 92%hist 96% | 17%hist 14% | +7pp | $380 | $5,700 | — | $21,927 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $47 11.0% OTM over spot $42.35 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.21 mid) = $380 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $47.20) 93% EV / mo +$3,650 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,275/mo median; plan ~$2,227/mo after 68% keep · $9,500 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-3.0], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,068 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $58 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.73/sh now → $1.22 mid-life (likely $1.21–$2.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 230 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $48 (overshoots $1.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $11 below CC-SS $58.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $47.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,642 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $47): -$21,927 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,265 (+$13,715 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,045 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,220, the opportunity cost of earning $5,700/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $45.50 | 18 Sep | 2d | 7.4% | 84%hist 86% | 32%hist 30% | +10pp | $760 | $11,400 | +$5,700 | $24,547 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $45.50 7.4% OTM over spot $42.35 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.41 mid) = $760 credit for the 2d cycle → $11,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $45.91) 87% EV / mo +$6,125 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,709/mo median; plan ~$3,882/mo after 68% keep · $14,072 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.7], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,569 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $58 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.65/sh now → $1.16 mid-life (likely $1.32–$2.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 514 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $47 (overshoots $1.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45.50 is $13 below CC-SS $58.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $45.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,642 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $45.50): -$24,547 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,885 (+$11,095 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,045 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,840, the opportunity cost of earning $11,400/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 20 × $60 | 25 Sep | 9d | 41.7% | 99%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | -2pp | $100 | $333 | -$5,493 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $60 41.7% OTM over spot $42.35 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.06 mid) = $100 credit for the 9d cycle → $333/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $60) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $60.06) 99% EV / mo +$246 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -2pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-82/mo median; plan ~$-56/mo after 68% keep · $-181 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.6-3.1], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,988 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $68 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.30/sh now → $3.04 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $60 is at/above CC-SS $58.15: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $60.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $60)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,642 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $60): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $662 (+$35,642 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,045 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$3,707, the opportunity cost of earning $333/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $51 | 25 Sep | 9d | 20.4% | 92%hist 96% | 17%hist 14% | +1pp | $580 | $1,933 | -$3,893 | $13,727 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $51 20.4% OTM over spot $42.35 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.32 mid) = $580 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,933/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $51.33) 93% EV / mo +$990 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $975/mo median; plan ~$663/mo after 68% keep · $3,846 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,071 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $58 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.29/sh now → $2.33 mid-life (likely $1.89–$3.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 322 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $52 (overshoots $1.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $7 below CC-SS $58.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $51.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,642 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $51): -$13,727 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,065 (+$21,915 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,045 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,020, the opportunity cost of earning $1,933/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 20 × $48.50 | 25 Sep | 9d | 14.5% | 86%hist 86% | 29%hist 26% | +3pp | $1,120 | $3,733 | -$2,093 | $18,187 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48.50 14.5% OTM over spot $42.35 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.60 mid) = $1,120 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,733/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $49.10) 88% EV / mo +$1,728 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,805/mo median; plan ~$1,228/mo after 68% keep · $6,985 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.2], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,164 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $55 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.03/sh now → $2.14 mid-life (likely $2.07–$3.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 663 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $50 (overshoots $1.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $10 below CC-SS $58.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.56 collected) or spot ≥ $49.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,642 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48.50): -$18,187 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,525 (+$17,455 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,045 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,480, the opportunity cost of earning $3,733/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $46.50 | 25 Sep | 9d | 9.8% | 78%hist 84% | 46%hist 39% | +7pp | $1,748 | $5,827 | — | $20,394 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $46.50 9.8% OTM over spot $42.35 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.97 mid) = $1,748 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,827/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $47.47) 82% EV / mo +$2,271 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,495/mo median; plan ~$1,697/mo after 68% keep · $9,855 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.6], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,053 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $55 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.83/sh now → $2.00 mid-life (likely $2.10–$3.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,093 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $48 (overshoots $1.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46.50 is $12 below CC-SS $58.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.92 collected) or spot ≥ $47.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,642 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $46.50): -$20,394 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$185 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,917 (+$15,063 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,045 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,872, the opportunity cost of earning $5,827/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $43.50 | 25 Sep | 9d | 2.7% | 61%hist 65% | 83%hist 79% | +9pp | $3,496 | $11,653 | +$5,827 | $24,346 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $43.50 2.7% OTM over spot $42.35 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $1.89 mid) = $3,496 credit for the 9d cycle → $11,653/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43.50) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $45.39) 72% EV / mo +$2,770 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,758/mo median; plan ~$2,555/mo after 68% keep · $10,926 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-2.9], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$82 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $54 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.54/sh now → $1.80 mid-life (likely $2.42–$3.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,019 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $45 (overshoots $1.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43.50 is $15 below CC-SS $58.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.46/sh (~25% of the $1.84 collected) or spot ≥ $45.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,642 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $43.50): -$24,346 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$185 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,869 (+$11,111 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,045 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,824, the opportunity cost of earning $11,653/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 36 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.128 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$35,642 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,045
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $47 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.19 | 20/20 | $5,700 | $5,368 | 92% | 93% | +$3,650 | -$21,927 | 365.4% | $-21,265 (vs do-nothing $-18,220) |
| $46.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.24 | 16/20 | $5,760 | $5,653 | 90% | 91% | +$3,495 | -$18,262 | 304.4% | $-18,341 (vs do-nothing $-15,296) |
| $46 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.31 | 13/20 | $6,045 | $6,106 | 87% | 89% | +$3,523 | -$15,397 | 256.6% | $-16,032 (vs do-nothing $-12,987) |
| $45.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.38 | 10/20 | $5,700 | $5,930 | 84% | 87% | +$3,063 | -$12,273 | 204.6% | $-13,465 (vs do-nothing $-10,420) |
| $45 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.50 | 8/20 | $6,000 | $6,343 | 81% | 85% | +$3,153 | -$10,123 | 168.7% | $-11,685 (vs do-nothing $-8,640) |
| $46.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.92 | 19/20 | $5,827 | $5,551 | 78% | 82% | +$2,271 | -$20,394 | 339.9% | $-19,917 (vs do-nothing $-16,872) |
| $44.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.59 | 7/20 | $6,195 | $6,594 | 76% | 82% | +$2,854 | -$9,144 | 152.4% | $-10,892 (vs do-nothing $-7,847) |
| $46 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.04 | 17/20 | $5,893 | $5,730 | 76% | 81% | +$2,128 | -$18,893 | 314.9% | $-18,787 (vs do-nothing $-15,742) |
| $46.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.53 | 20/20 | $5,738 | $5,405 | 73% | 79% | +$1,754 | -$20,247 | 337.4% | $-19,585 (vs do-nothing $-16,540) |
| $45.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.16 | 15/20 | $5,800 | $5,749 | 73% | 79% | +$1,820 | -$17,240 | 287.3% | $-17,505 (vs do-nothing $-14,460) |
| $44 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.75 | 5/20 | $5,625 | $6,136 | 72% | 79% | +$2,445 | -$6,702 | 111.7% | $-8,820 (vs do-nothing $-5,775) |
| $46 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.66 | 18/20 | $5,602 | $5,383 | 71% | 78% | +$1,612 | -$18,888 | 314.8% | $-18,597 (vs do-nothing $-15,552) |
| $45 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.31 | 13/20 | $5,677 | $5,738 | 70% | 77% | +$1,685 | -$15,397 | 256.6% | $-16,032 (vs do-nothing $-12,987) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.19 | 20/20 | $5,713 | $5,381 | 69% | 77% | +$1,553 | -$19,927 | 332.1% | $-19,265 (vs do-nothing $-16,220) |
| $45.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.81 | 17/20 | $5,769 | $5,606 | 69% | 77% | +$1,579 | -$18,434 | 307.2% | $-18,328 (vs do-nothing $-15,283) |
| $44.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.46 | 12/20 | $5,840 | $5,958 | 67% | 76% | +$1,588 | -$14,632 | 243.9% | $-15,453 (vs do-nothing $-12,408) |
| $45 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.98 | 16/20 | $5,940 | $5,833 | 67% | 76% | +$1,561 | -$17,878 | 298.0% | $-17,957 (vs do-nothing $-14,912) |
| $43.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.90 | 5/20 | $6,750 | $7,261 | 66% | 76% | +$2,545 | -$6,877 | 114.6% | $-8,995 (vs do-nothing $-5,950) |
| $45 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.54 | 17/20 | $5,632 | $5,469 | 65% | 75% | +$1,438 | -$18,043 | 300.7% | $-17,937 (vs do-nothing $-14,892) |
| $44.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.11 | 15/20 | $5,934 | $5,883 | 64% | 74% | +$1,381 | -$17,315 | 288.6% | $-17,580 (vs do-nothing $-14,535) |
| $44 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.65 | 11/20 | $6,050 | $6,224 | 64% | 74% | +$1,565 | -$13,754 | 229.2% | $-14,760 (vs do-nothing $-11,715) |
| $44 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.33 | 13/20 | $5,679 | $5,741 | 62% | 73% | +$1,309 | -$15,371 | 256.2% | $-16,006 (vs do-nothing $-12,961) |
| $44 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.86 | 15/20 | $5,596 | $5,545 | 61% | 73% | +$1,220 | -$16,940 | 282.3% | $-17,205 (vs do-nothing $-14,160) |
| $43.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.84 | 10/20 | $6,133 | $6,364 | 61% | 72% | +$1,458 | -$12,813 | 213.6% | $-14,005 (vs do-nothing $-10,960) |
| $43 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.10 | 4/20 | $6,600 | $7,168 | 60% | 73% | +$2,197 | -$5,621 | 93.7% | $-7,925 (vs do-nothing $-4,880) |
| $43.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.52 | 12/20 | $5,670 | $5,788 | 60% | 72% | +$1,210 | -$14,560 | 242.7% | $-15,381 (vs do-nothing $-12,336) |
| $43 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.06 | 9/20 | $6,180 | $6,466 | 57% | 71% | +$1,371 | -$11,784 | 196.4% | $-13,161 (vs do-nothing $-10,116) |
| $43 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.30 | 13/20 | $5,596 | $5,657 | 57% | 71% | +$1,130 | -$15,410 | 256.8% | $-16,045 (vs do-nothing $-13,000) |
| $43 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.74 | 11/20 | $5,651 | $5,825 | 57% | 71% | +$1,139 | -$13,655 | 227.6% | $-14,661 (vs do-nothing $-11,616) |
| $42.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.98 | 10/20 | $5,588 | $5,818 | 54% | 69% | +$1,070 | -$12,673 | 211.2% | $-13,865 (vs do-nothing $-10,820) |
| $42.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.29 | 8/20 | $6,107 | $6,449 | 54% | 69% | +$1,241 | -$10,691 | 178.2% | $-12,253 (vs do-nothing $-9,208) |
| $42.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.32 | 3/20 | $5,940 | $6,564 | 53% | 70% | +$1,675 | -$4,300 | 71.7% | $-6,789 (vs do-nothing $-3,744) |
| $42 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.75 | 12/20 | $5,870 | $5,987 | 52% | 69% | +$1,038 | -$14,884 | 248.1% | $-15,705 (vs do-nothing $-12,660) |
| $42 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.20 | 10/20 | $6,000 | $6,230 | 52% | 68% | +$1,034 | -$12,953 | 215.9% | $-14,145 (vs do-nothing $-11,100) |
| $42 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.54 | 7/20 | $5,927 | $6,326 | 50% | 68% | +$1,101 | -$9,529 | 158.8% | $-11,277 (vs do-nothing $-8,232) |
| $42 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.59 | 3/20 | $7,155 | $7,779 | 47% | 67% | +$1,735 | -$4,369 | 72.8% | $-6,858 (vs do-nothing $-3,813) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.