20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $58.19 (banked floor $55.75) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $12,327/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $226/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-32,600 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 2 Oct 2026 · 4d | 19 × $47.50 | 83% | $6,270 | $4,176 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 9 Oct 2026 · 11d | 20 × $47 | 73% | $6,218 | $883 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 11 × $56 | 2 Oct | 4d | 28.3% | 99%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | -1pp | $33 | $247 | -$6,022 | $2,375 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 11 × $56 28.3% OTM over spot $43.66 2 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.04 mid) = $33 credit for the 4d cycle → $247/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $56) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $56.03) 99% EV / mo +$185 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 67% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $314/mo median; plan ~$214/mo after 68% keep · $896 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.7], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,884 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $66 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 11 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.46/sh now → $1.74 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $56 is $2 below CC-SS $58.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $56.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $56)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,417 − CC assignment net of premium (11 × $56): -$2,375 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $56): -$1,844 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,402 (+$29,198 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,281 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-121, the opportunity cost of earning $247/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $49.50 | 2 Oct | 4d | 13.4% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | +4pp | $400 | $3,000 | -$3,270 | $16,978 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $49.50 13.4% OTM over spot $43.66 2 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.23 mid) = $400 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $49.73) 92% EV / mo +$1,537 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,774/mo median; plan ~$1,206/mo after 68% keep · $5,018 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.4], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,449 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $59 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.01/sh now → $1.42 mid-life (likely $1.23–$2.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 290 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $51 (overshoots $1.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49.50 is $9 below CC-SS $58.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $49.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,417 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $49.50): -$16,978 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,161 (+$16,439 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,281 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,880, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 18 × $48.50 | 2 Oct | 4d | 11.1% | 88%hist 86% | 25%hist 25% | +6pp | $558 | $4,185 | -$2,085 | $16,882 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $48.50 11.1% OTM over spot $43.66 2 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.33 mid) = $558 credit for the 4d cycle → $4,185/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $48.83) 89% EV / mo +$2,058 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 71% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,389/mo median; plan ~$1,625/mo after 68% keep · $6,728 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.6-2.8], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,922 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $59 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.95/sh now → $1.38 mid-life (likely $1.27–$2.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 440 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $50 (overshoots $1.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $10 below CC-SS $58.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $48.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,417 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $48.50): -$16,882 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$410 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,475 (+$16,125 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,281 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,194, the opportunity cost of earning $4,185/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $47.50 | 2 Oct | 4d | 8.8% | 83%hist 86% | 34%hist 33% | +8pp | $836 | $6,270 | — | $19,473 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $47.50 8.8% OTM over spot $43.66 2 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.46 mid) = $836 credit for the 4d cycle → $6,270/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $47.96) 86% EV / mo +$2,646 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,183/mo median; plan ~$2,164/mo after 68% keep · $8,430 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.6-2.8], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,696 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $58 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.88/sh now → $1.33 mid-life (likely $1.33–$2.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 654 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $49 (overshoots $1.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47.50 is $11 below CC-SS $58.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $47.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,417 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $47.50): -$19,473 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$205 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,861 (+$13,739 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,281 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,580, the opportunity cost of earning $6,270/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $45.50 | 2 Oct | 4d | 4.2% | 69%hist 64% | 63%hist 59% | +11pp | $1,691 | $12,682 | +$6,412 | $22,418 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $45.50 4.2% OTM over spot $43.66 2 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.90 mid) = $1,691 credit for the 4d cycle → $12,682/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45.50) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $46.40) 76% EV / mo +$3,688 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,709/mo median; plan ~$3,202/mo after 68% keep · $11,855 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-2.6], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$672 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $58 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.76/sh now → $1.24 mid-life (likely $1.53–$2.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.89/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,302 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $47 (overshoots $1.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45.50 is $13 below CC-SS $58.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.89 collected) or spot ≥ $46.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,417 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $45.50): -$22,418 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$205 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,806 (+$10,794 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,281 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,525, the opportunity cost of earning $12,682/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 11 × $60 | 9 Oct | 11d | 37.4% | 98%hist 96% | 4%hist 3% | -0pp | $88 | $240 | -$5,978 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 11 × $60 37.4% OTM over spot $43.66 9 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.08 mid) = $88 credit for the 11d cycle → $240/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $60) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $60.09) 98% EV / mo +$169 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -0pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $293/mo median; plan ~$199/mo after 68% keep · $1,075 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.7-2.3], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,114 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $66 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 11 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.11/sh now → $2.91 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $60 is at/above CC-SS $58.19: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $60.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $60)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,417 − CC assignment net of premium (11 × $60): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $56): -$1,844 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,027 (+$31,573 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,281 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$2,254, the opportunity cost of earning $240/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $52 | 9 Oct | 11d | 19.1% | 90%hist 96% | 21%hist 25% | +2pp | $800 | $2,182 | -$4,036 | $11,578 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $52 19.1% OTM over spot $43.66 9 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.43 mid) = $800 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,182/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $52.42) 91% EV / mo +$1,084 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,215/mo median; plan ~$826/mo after 68% keep · $4,412 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,764 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $58 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.23/sh now → $2.28 mid-life (likely $1.80–$3.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 389 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $53 (overshoots $1.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $6 below CC-SS $58.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $52.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,417 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $52): -$11,578 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,761 (+$21,839 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,281 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,480, the opportunity cost of earning $2,182/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 18 × $48.50 | 9 Oct | 11d | 11.1% | 80%hist 82% | 42%hist 41% | +7pp | $1,494 | $4,075 | -$2,144 | $15,946 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $48.50 11.1% OTM over spot $43.66 9 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.87 mid) = $1,494 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,075/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $49.37) 83% EV / mo +$1,365 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,008/mo median; plan ~$1,365/mo after 68% keep · $6,824 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.4], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,161 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $57 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.87/sh now → $2.03 mid-life (likely $2.01–$3.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,007 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $50 (overshoots $1.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $10 below CC-SS $58.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.83 collected) or spot ≥ $49.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,417 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $48.50): -$15,946 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$410 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,539 (+$17,061 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,281 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,258, the opportunity cost of earning $4,075/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $47 | 9 Oct | 11d | 7.7% | 73%hist 82% | 57%hist 46% | +6pp | $2,280 | $6,218 | — | $20,098 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $47 7.7% OTM over spot $43.66 9 Oct 2026 (11d, $1.19 mid) = $2,280 credit for the 11d cycle → $6,218/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $48.19) 79% EV / mo +$1,640 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,629/mo median; plan ~$1,788/mo after 68% keep · $8,261 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.0], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,573 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $56 @ 86% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.72/sh now → $1.93 mid-life (likely $2.18–$3.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,318 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $48 (overshoots $1.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $11 below CC-SS $58.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.14 collected) or spot ≥ $48.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,417 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $47): -$20,098 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,281 (+$13,319 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,281 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,000, the opportunity cost of earning $6,218/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $43.50 | 9 Oct | 11d | -0.4% | 52%hist 68% | 100%hist 90% | · | $4,598 | $12,540 | +$6,322 | $23,311 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $43.50 0.4% ITM over spot $43.66 9 Oct 2026 (11d, $2.46 mid) = $4,598 credit for the 11d cycle → $12,540/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43.50) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $45.95) 67% EV / mo +$1,863 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,377 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $54 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.40/sh now → $1.70 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43.50 is $15 below CC-SS $58.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.60/sh (~25% of the $2.42 collected) or spot ≥ $45.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,417 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $43.50): -$23,311 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$205 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,699 (+$9,901 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,281 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,418, the opportunity cost of earning $12,540/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 30 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.150 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$33,417 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,281
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $47.50 | 4d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.44 | 19/20 | $6,270 | $6,082 | 83% | 86% | +$2,646 | -$19,473 | 324.6% | $-18,861 (vs do-nothing $-15,580) |
| $47 | 4d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.53 | 16/20 | $6,360 | $6,286 | 80% | 84% | +$2,499 | -$17,054 | 284.2% | $-17,057 (vs do-nothing $-13,776) |
| $46.50 | 4d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.63 | 14/20 | $6,615 | $6,618 | 77% | 81% | +$2,360 | -$15,483 | 258.0% | $-15,895 (vs do-nothing $-12,614) |
| $46 | 4d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.74 | 12/20 | $6,660 | $6,739 | 73% | 79% | +$2,092 | -$13,739 | 229.0% | $-14,561 (vs do-nothing $-11,280) |
| $47 | 11d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.14 | 20/20 | $6,218 | $5,992 | 73% | 79% | +$1,640 | -$20,098 | 335.0% | $-19,281 (vs do-nothing $-16,000) |
| $46.50 | 11d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.30 | 18/20 | $6,382 | $6,232 | 70% | 77% | +$1,661 | -$18,700 | 311.7% | $-18,293 (vs do-nothing $-15,012) |
| $45.50 | 4d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.89 | 10/20 | $6,675 | $6,830 | 69% | 76% | +$1,941 | -$11,799 | 196.7% | $-13,031 (vs do-nothing $-9,750) |
| $46.50 | 18d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.86 | 20/20 | $6,200 | $5,974 | 68% | 76% | +$1,454 | -$19,658 | 327.6% | $-18,841 (vs do-nothing $-15,560) |
| $46 | 11d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.42 | 16/20 | $6,196 | $6,123 | 67% | 75% | +$1,398 | -$17,230 | 287.2% | $-17,233 (vs do-nothing $-13,952) |
| $46 | 18d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.03 | 19/20 | $6,428 | $6,240 | 65% | 74% | +$1,433 | -$19,302 | 321.7% | $-18,690 (vs do-nothing $-15,409) |
| $45 | 4d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.05 | 8/20 | $6,300 | $6,532 | 65% | 74% | +$1,627 | -$9,711 | 161.9% | $-11,353 (vs do-nothing $-8,072) |
| $45.50 | 11d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.59 | 15/20 | $6,505 | $6,469 | 65% | 74% | +$1,375 | -$16,649 | 277.5% | $-16,856 (vs do-nothing $-13,575) |
| $45.50 | 18d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.19 | 17/20 | $6,205 | $6,093 | 63% | 73% | +$1,259 | -$17,848 | 297.5% | $-17,646 (vs do-nothing $-14,365) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45 | 11d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.79 | 13/20 | $6,346 | $6,387 | 61% | 72% | +$1,289 | -$14,819 | 247.0% | $-15,436 (vs do-nothing $-12,155) |
| $45 | 18d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.39 | 16/20 | $6,373 | $6,300 | 60% | 72% | +$1,231 | -$17,278 | 288.0% | $-17,281 (vs do-nothing $-14,000) |
| $44.50 | 4d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.21 | 7/20 | $6,352 | $6,622 | 60% | 71% | +$1,348 | -$8,735 | 145.6% | $-10,582 (vs do-nothing $-7,301) |
| $45 | 25d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.87 | 18/20 | $6,199 | $6,049 | 60% | 72% | +$1,044 | -$18,574 | 309.6% | $-18,167 (vs do-nothing $-14,886) |
| $44.50 | 11d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.94 | 12/20 | $6,349 | $6,428 | 58% | 70% | +$1,055 | -$14,099 | 235.0% | $-14,921 (vs do-nothing $-11,640) |
| $44.50 | 18d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.58 | 15/20 | $6,450 | $6,414 | 58% | 70% | +$1,133 | -$16,664 | 277.7% | $-16,871 (vs do-nothing $-13,590) |
| $44 | 25d | 23 Oct 2026 | $3.25 | 16/20 | $6,240 | $6,166 | 56% | 70% | +$877 | -$17,502 | 291.7% | $-17,505 (vs do-nothing $-14,224) |
| $44 | 4d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.42 | 6/20 | $6,390 | $6,698 | 55% | 69% | +$1,188 | -$7,661 | 127.7% | $-9,713 (vs do-nothing $-6,432) |
| $44 | 18d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.80 | 14/20 | $6,533 | $6,536 | 55% | 69% | +$1,070 | -$15,945 | 265.7% | $-16,357 (vs do-nothing $-13,076) |
| $44 | 11d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.16 | 11/20 | $6,480 | $6,597 | 55% | 69% | +$994 | -$13,232 | 220.5% | $-14,259 (vs do-nothing $-10,978) |
| $43.50 | 18d | 16 Oct 2026 | $3.00 | 13/20 | $6,500 | $6,541 | 52% | 68% | +$926 | -$15,196 | 253.3% | $-15,813 (vs do-nothing $-12,532) |
| $43.50 | 11d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.42 | 10/20 | $6,600 | $6,755 | 52% | 67% | +$981 | -$12,269 | 204.5% | $-13,501 (vs do-nothing $-10,220) |
| $43 | 25d | 23 Oct 2026 | $3.75 | 14/20 | $6,300 | $6,303 | 51% | 68% | +$831 | -$16,015 | 266.9% | $-16,427 (vs do-nothing $-13,146) |
| $43.50 | 4d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.65 | 5/20 | $6,188 | $6,534 | 50% | 67% | +$980 | -$6,520 | 108.7% | $-8,776 (vs do-nothing $-5,495) |
| $43 | 18d | 16 Oct 2026 | $3.25 | 12/20 | $6,500 | $6,579 | 50% | 67% | +$858 | -$14,327 | 238.8% | $-15,149 (vs do-nothing $-11,868) |
| $43 | 11d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.66 | 9/20 | $6,529 | $6,723 | 48% | 66% | +$851 | -$11,276 | 187.9% | $-12,713 (vs do-nothing $-9,432) |
| $43 | 4d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.90 | 5/20 | $7,125 | $7,471 | 45% | 65% | +$928 | -$6,645 | 110.7% | $-8,901 (vs do-nothing $-5,620) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.