20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $58.04 (banked floor $55.61) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,565/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $219/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-35,850 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 2 Oct 2026 · 3d | 20 × $46.50 | 89% | $5,000 | $4,309 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 9 Oct 2026 · 10d | 19 × $46 | 77% | $4,788 | $1,288 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 8 × $52 | 2 Oct | 3d | 23.5% | 99%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | +0pp | $24 | $240 | -$4,760 | $4,811 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $52 23.5% OTM over spot $42.09 2 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.04 mid) = $24 credit for the 3d cycle → $240/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $52.03) 99% EV / mo +$186 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $236/mo median; plan ~$161/mo after 68% keep · $796 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-3.1], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,139 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $62 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.05/sh now → $1.45 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $6 below CC-SS $58.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $52.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,759 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $52): -$4,811 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $56): -$2,369 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,272 (+$29,578 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,040 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,232, the opportunity cost of earning $240/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 17 × $47 | 2 Oct | 3d | 11.7% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | +4pp | $323 | $3,230 | -$1,770 | $18,452 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $47 11.7% OTM over spot $42.09 2 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.21 mid) = $323 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,230/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $47.21) 92% EV / mo +$1,715 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,957/mo median; plan ~$1,331/mo after 68% keep · $6,890 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.6-3.2], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,772 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $57 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.74/sh now → $1.23 mid-life (likely $1.10–$2.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 233 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $48 (overshoots $1.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $11 below CC-SS $58.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $47.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,759 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $47): -$18,452 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $56): -$592 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,136 (+$17,714 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,040 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,096, the opportunity cost of earning $3,230/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $47 | 2 Oct | 3d | 11.7% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | +6pp | $380 | $3,800 | -$1,200 | $21,708 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $47 11.7% OTM over spot $42.09 2 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.21 mid) = $380 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $47.21) 92% EV / mo +$2,018 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,146/mo median; plan ~$1,459/mo after 68% keep · $8,447 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.8-3.0], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,085 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $57 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.74/sh now → $1.23 mid-life (likely $1.07–$2.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 241 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $48 (overshoots $1.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $11 below CC-SS $58.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $47.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,759 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $47): -$21,708 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,800 (+$15,050 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,040 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,760, the opportunity cost of earning $3,800/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $46.50 | 2 Oct | 3d | 10.5% | 89%hist 86% | 22%hist 25% | +8pp | $500 | $5,000 | — | $22,588 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $46.50 10.5% OTM over spot $42.09 2 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.27 mid) = $500 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46.50) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $46.77) 90% EV / mo +$2,655 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,884/mo median; plan ~$1,961/mo after 68% keep · $8,868 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-3.0], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,923 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $56 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.71/sh now → $1.21 mid-life (likely $1.20–$2.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 334 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $48 (overshoots $1.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46.50 is $12 below CC-SS $58.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $46.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,759 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $46.50): -$22,588 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,680 (+$14,170 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,040 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,640, the opportunity cost of earning $5,000/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $45 | 2 Oct | 3d | 6.9% | 81%hist 86% | 40%hist 33% | +13pp | $960 | $9,600 | +$4,600 | $25,128 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $45 6.9% OTM over spot $42.09 2 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.48 mid) = $960 credit for the 3d cycle → $9,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $45.48) 84% EV / mo +$4,284 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,522/mo median; plan ~$3,075/mo after 68% keep · $12,901 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.1], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,338 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $57 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.62/sh now → $1.15 mid-life (likely $1.17–$2.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 684 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $46 (overshoots $1.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $13 below CC-SS $58.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.48 collected) or spot ≥ $45.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,759 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $45): -$25,128 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,220 (+$11,630 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,040 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,180, the opportunity cost of earning $9,600/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 15 × $60 | 9 Oct | 10d | 42.6% | 98%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | +0pp | $75 | $225 | -$4,563 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $60 42.6% OTM over spot $42.09 9 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.06 mid) = $75 credit for the 10d cycle → $225/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $60) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $60.05) 98% EV / mo +$137 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $39/mo median; plan ~$26/mo after 68% keep · $93 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.5-2.8], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,286 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $66 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.11/sh now → $2.91 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $60 is at/above CC-SS $58.04: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $60.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $60)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,759 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $60): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $56): -$987 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-79 (+$35,771 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,040 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$2,961, the opportunity cost of earning $225/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $50 | 9 Oct | 10d | 18.8% | 91%hist 96% | 20%hist 14% | +3pp | $640 | $1,920 | -$2,868 | $15,448 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $50 18.8% OTM over spot $42.09 9 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.33 mid) = $640 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,920/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $50.34) 91% EV / mo +$895 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $990/mo median; plan ~$673/mo after 68% keep · $4,832 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [0.9-3.5], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,605 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $56 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.00/sh now → $2.12 mid-life (likely $1.65–$2.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 321 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $51 (overshoots $1.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $8 below CC-SS $58.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $50.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,759 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $50): -$15,448 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,540 (+$21,310 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,040 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,500, the opportunity cost of earning $1,920/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $47.50 | 9 Oct | 10d | 12.9% | 84%hist 86% | 34%hist 33% | +4pp | $1,102 | $3,306 | -$1,482 | $18,932 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $47.50 12.9% OTM over spot $42.09 9 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.62 mid) = $1,102 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,306/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $48.12) 86% EV / mo +$1,263 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,638/mo median; plan ~$1,114/mo after 68% keep · $6,762 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.9-2.9], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,594 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $53 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.75/sh now → $1.95 mid-life (likely $1.81–$2.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 683 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $48 (overshoots $0.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47.50 is $11 below CC-SS $58.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.58 collected) or spot ≥ $48.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,759 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $47.50): -$18,932 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$197 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,221 (+$17,629 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,040 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,181, the opportunity cost of earning $3,306/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $46 | 9 Oct | 10d | 9.3% | 77%hist 82% | 47%hist 41% | +6pp | $1,596 | $4,788 | — | $21,288 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $46 9.3% OTM over spot $42.09 9 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.89 mid) = $1,596 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,788/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $46.88) 82% EV / mo +$1,554 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,109/mo median; plan ~$1,434/mo after 68% keep · $9,104 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.6], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,904 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $54 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.60/sh now → $1.84 mid-life (likely $1.89–$2.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,007 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $47 (overshoots $1.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $12 below CC-SS $58.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.84 collected) or spot ≥ $46.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,759 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $46): -$21,288 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$197 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,577 (+$15,273 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,040 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,537, the opportunity cost of earning $4,788/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $43 | 9 Oct | 10d | 2.2% | 59%hist 68% | 86%hist 80% | +12pp | $3,325 | $9,975 | +$5,187 | $25,259 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $43 2.2% OTM over spot $42.09 9 Oct 2026 (10d, $1.79 mid) = $3,325 credit for the 10d cycle → $9,975/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $44.80) 71% EV / mo +$2,046 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,127/mo median; plan ~$2,126/mo after 68% keep · $11,897 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-3.9], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$200 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $54 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.32/sh now → $1.64 mid-life (likely $2.22–$3.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,070 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $44 (overshoots $1.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $15 below CC-SS $58.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.44/sh (~25% of the $1.75 collected) or spot ≥ $44.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,759 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $43): -$25,259 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$197 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,548 (+$11,302 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,040 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,508, the opportunity cost of earning $9,975/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 35 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.152 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$36,759 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,040
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46.50 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.25 | 20/20 | $5,000 | $4,781 | 89% | 90% | +$2,655 | -$22,588 | 376.5% | $-21,680 (vs do-nothing $-18,640) |
| $46 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.30 | 16/20 | $4,800 | $4,665 | 87% | 88% | +$2,332 | -$18,791 | 313.2% | $-18,672 (vs do-nothing $-15,632) |
| $45.50 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.38 | 13/20 | $4,940 | $4,868 | 84% | 86% | +$2,300 | -$15,813 | 263.6% | $-16,287 (vs do-nothing $-13,247) |
| $45 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.48 | 10/20 | $4,800 | $4,791 | 81% | 84% | +$2,142 | -$12,564 | 209.4% | $-13,630 (vs do-nothing $-10,590) |
| $46 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.84 | 19/20 | $4,788 | $4,590 | 77% | 82% | +$1,554 | -$21,288 | 354.8% | $-20,577 (vs do-nothing $-17,537) |
| $44.50 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.58 | 9/20 | $5,220 | $5,232 | 77% | 82% | +$2,108 | -$11,668 | 194.5% | $-12,931 (vs do-nothing $-9,891) |
| $45.50 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.95 | 17/20 | $4,845 | $4,689 | 75% | 80% | +$1,477 | -$19,710 | 328.5% | $-19,394 (vs do-nothing $-16,354) |
| $46 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.38 | 20/20 | $4,871 | $4,651 | 73% | 79% | +$1,363 | -$21,328 | 355.5% | $-20,420 (vs do-nothing $-17,380) |
| $44 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.67 | 8/20 | $5,360 | $5,393 | 73% | 79% | +$1,787 | -$10,699 | 178.3% | $-12,160 (vs do-nothing $-9,120) |
| $45 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.07 | 15/20 | $4,815 | $4,701 | 72% | 78% | +$1,270 | -$17,961 | 299.4% | $-18,040 (vs do-nothing $-15,000) |
| $45.50 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.50 | 19/20 | $5,029 | $4,831 | 71% | 78% | +$1,317 | -$20,984 | 349.7% | $-20,273 (vs do-nothing $-17,233) |
| $44.50 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.21 | 14/20 | $5,082 | $4,989 | 69% | 77% | +$1,340 | -$17,268 | 287.8% | $-17,544 (vs do-nothing $-14,504) |
| $45 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.66 | 17/20 | $4,980 | $4,824 | 69% | 76% | +$1,277 | -$19,353 | 322.6% | $-19,037 (vs do-nothing $-15,997) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43.50 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.81 | 6/20 | $4,860 | $4,935 | 68% | 76% | +$1,426 | -$8,241 | 137.3% | $-10,096 (vs do-nothing $-7,056) |
| $45 | 24d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.08 | 19/20 | $4,940 | $4,742 | 67% | 75% | +$1,015 | -$20,832 | 347.2% | $-20,121 (vs do-nothing $-17,081) |
| $44.50 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.82 | 15/20 | $4,818 | $4,703 | 66% | 75% | +$1,176 | -$17,586 | 293.1% | $-17,665 (vs do-nothing $-14,625) |
| $44 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.38 | 12/20 | $4,968 | $4,917 | 66% | 75% | +$1,254 | -$15,197 | 253.3% | $-15,868 (vs do-nothing $-12,828) |
| $44 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.99 | 14/20 | $4,916 | $4,823 | 64% | 74% | +$1,118 | -$16,876 | 281.3% | $-17,152 (vs do-nothing $-14,112) |
| $43.50 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.55 | 11/20 | $5,115 | $5,085 | 63% | 73% | +$1,182 | -$14,294 | 238.2% | $-15,162 (vs do-nothing $-12,122) |
| $44 | 24d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.44 | 16/20 | $4,880 | $4,745 | 63% | 73% | +$941 | -$18,567 | 309.4% | $-18,448 (vs do-nothing $-15,408) |
| $43 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.00 | 5/20 | $5,000 | $5,096 | 62% | 73% | +$1,366 | -$7,022 | 117.0% | $-9,075 (vs do-nothing $-6,035) |
| $43.50 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.16 | 13/20 | $4,955 | $4,883 | 61% | 72% | +$1,039 | -$16,099 | 268.3% | $-16,573 (vs do-nothing $-13,533) |
| $43 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.75 | 10/20 | $5,250 | $5,241 | 59% | 71% | +$1,077 | -$13,294 | 221.6% | $-14,360 (vs do-nothing $-11,320) |
| $43 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.37 | 12/20 | $5,019 | $4,968 | 58% | 71% | +$1,004 | -$15,209 | 253.5% | $-15,880 (vs do-nothing $-12,840) |
| $43 | 24d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.84 | 14/20 | $4,970 | $4,877 | 58% | 71% | +$877 | -$17,086 | 284.8% | $-17,362 (vs do-nothing $-14,322) |
| $42.50 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.21 | 4/20 | $4,840 | $4,957 | 57% | 70% | +$1,184 | -$5,734 | 95.6% | $-7,984 (vs do-nothing $-4,944) |
| $42.50 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.59 | 11/20 | $5,028 | $4,997 | 56% | 70% | +$951 | -$14,250 | 237.5% | $-15,118 (vs do-nothing $-12,078) |
| $42.50 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.97 | 9/20 | $5,319 | $5,331 | 56% | 70% | +$1,065 | -$12,217 | 203.6% | $-13,480 (vs do-nothing $-10,440) |
| $42 | 24d | 23 Oct 2026 | $3.20 | 12/20 | $4,800 | $4,749 | 53% | 69% | +$652 | -$15,413 | 256.9% | $-16,084 (vs do-nothing $-13,044) |
| $42 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.80 | 10/20 | $4,941 | $4,932 | 53% | 68% | +$822 | -$13,244 | 220.7% | $-14,310 (vs do-nothing $-11,270) |
| $42 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.21 | 8/20 | $5,304 | $5,337 | 52% | 68% | +$980 | -$11,067 | 184.5% | $-12,528 (vs do-nothing $-9,488) |
| $42 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.44 | 4/20 | $5,760 | $5,877 | 50% | 68% | +$1,212 | -$5,842 | 97.4% | $-8,092 (vs do-nothing $-5,052) |
| $41.50 | 17d | 16 Oct 2026 | $3.00 | 10/20 | $5,294 | $5,285 | 50% | 67% | +$726 | -$13,544 | 225.7% | $-14,610 (vs do-nothing $-11,570) |
| $41.50 | 10d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.44 | 7/20 | $5,124 | $5,178 | 48% | 66% | +$768 | -$9,873 | 164.5% | $-11,531 (vs do-nothing $-8,491) |
| $41.50 | 3d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.71 | 3/20 | $5,130 | $5,268 | 44% | 65% | +$936 | -$4,450 | 74.2% | $-6,898 (vs do-nothing $-3,858) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.