20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $57.79 (banked floor $55.36) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,038/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $200/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-37,340 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 2 Oct 2026 · 2d | 18 × $45 | 91% | $4,590 | $4,234 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 9 Oct 2026 · 9d | 20 × $45 | 78% | $4,733 | $1,494 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 14 × $55 | 2 Oct | 2d | 33.4% | 99+%hist 96% | 1%hist 3% | -0pp | $14 | $210 | -$4,380 | $3,895 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $55 33.4% OTM over spot $41.23 2 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.01 mid) = $14 credit for the 2d cycle → $210/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $55.02) 99+% EV / mo +$186 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -0pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $111/mo median; plan ~$76/mo after 68% keep · $138 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.1], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,747 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $69 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.78/sh now → $1.26 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $3 below CC-SS $57.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.00/sh (~25% of the $0.01 collected) or spot ≥ $55.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,340 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,326 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $55): -$3,895 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $57): -$403 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,313 (+$34,027 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-359 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,954, the opportunity cost of earning $210/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $45.50 | 2 Oct | 2d | 10.4% | 93%hist 96% | 14%hist 14% | +5pp | $209 | $3,135 | -$1,455 | $23,147 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $45.50 10.4% OTM over spot $41.23 2 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.13 mid) = $209 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,135/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $45.63) 94% EV / mo +$1,820 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,911/mo median; plan ~$1,300/mo after 68% keep · $9,399 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.7-3.9], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,545 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $55 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.31/sh now → $0.92 mid-life (likely $0.97–$1.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 180 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $47 (overshoots $1.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45.50 is $12 below CC-SS $57.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $45.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,340 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,326 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $45.50): -$23,147 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $57): -$67 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,228 (+$15,112 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-359 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,869, the opportunity cost of earning $3,135/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $45 | 2 Oct | 2d | 9.1% | 91%hist 96% | 19%hist 14% | +9pp | $306 | $4,590 | — | $22,720 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $45 9.1% OTM over spot $41.23 2 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.17 mid) = $306 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,590/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $45.17) 92% EV / mo +$2,754 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,864/mo median; plan ~$1,947/mo after 68% keep · $10,184 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.8-3.6], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,326 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $56 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.28/sh now → $0.91 mid-life (likely $0.91–$1.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 233 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $46 (overshoots $0.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $13 below CC-SS $57.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $45.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,340 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,326 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $45): -$22,720 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $57): -$134 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,869 (+$15,471 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-359 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,510, the opportunity cost of earning $4,590/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $45 | 2 Oct | 2d | 9.1% | 91%hist 96% | 19%hist 14% | +8pp | $340 | $5,100 | +$510 | $25,245 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $45 9.1% OTM over spot $41.23 2 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.17 mid) = $340 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $45.17) 92% EV / mo +$3,060 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,182/mo median; plan ~$2,164/mo after 68% keep · $9,597 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.8-3.0], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,474 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $56 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.28/sh now → $0.91 mid-life (likely $0.92–$1.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 267 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $46 (overshoots $1.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $13 below CC-SS $57.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $45.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,340 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,326 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $45): -$25,245 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,259 (+$13,081 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-359 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,900, the opportunity cost of earning $5,100/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 17 × $43.50 | 2 Oct | 2d | 5.5% | 80%hist 86% | 40%hist 41% | +12pp | $612 | $9,180 | +$4,590 | $23,685 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $43.50 5.5% OTM over spot $41.23 2 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.39 mid) = $612 credit for the 2d cycle → $9,180/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $43.89) 84% EV / mo +$3,851 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,663/mo median; plan ~$3,171/mo after 68% keep · $13,758 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.0], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$848 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $55 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.21/sh now → $0.86 mid-life (likely $0.97–$1.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 647 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $45 (overshoots $1.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43.50 is $14 below CC-SS $57.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.36 collected) or spot ≥ $43.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,340 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,326 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $43.50): -$23,685 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $57): -$202 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,901 (+$14,439 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-359 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,542, the opportunity cost of earning $9,180/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 20 × $57 | 9 Oct | 9d | 38.2% | 99%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | -0pp | $60 | $200 | -$4,533 | $1,525 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $57 38.2% OTM over spot $41.23 9 Oct 2026 (9d, $0.05 mid) = $60 credit for the 9d cycle → $200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $57) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $57.05) 99% EV / mo +$125 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -0pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-42/mo median; plan ~$-29/mo after 68% keep · $-122 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,825 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $64 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.45/sh now → $2.44 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $57 is $1 below CC-SS $57.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $57.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $57)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,340 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,326 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $57): -$1,525 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-539 (+$36,801 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-359 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-180, the opportunity cost of earning $200/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $48.50 | 9 Oct | 9d | 17.6% | 91%hist 96% | 19%hist 14% | +1pp | $520 | $1,733 | -$3,000 | $18,065 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48.50 17.6% OTM over spot $41.23 9 Oct 2026 (9d, $0.29 mid) = $520 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,733/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $48.79) 92% EV / mo +$781 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $910/mo median; plan ~$619/mo after 68% keep · $4,392 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.6], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,175 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $54 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.61/sh now → $1.85 mid-life (likely $1.51–$2.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 343 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $50 (overshoots $1.07). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $9 below CC-SS $57.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $48.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,340 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,326 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48.50): -$18,065 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,079 (+$20,261 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-359 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,720, the opportunity cost of earning $1,733/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $46.50 | 9 Oct | 9d | 12.8% | 85%hist 86% | 31%hist 33% | +6pp | $912 | $3,040 | -$1,693 | $20,544 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $46.50 12.8% OTM over spot $41.23 9 Oct 2026 (9d, $0.51 mid) = $912 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,040/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $47.01) 87% EV / mo +$1,220 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,482/mo median; plan ~$1,008/mo after 68% keep · $8,365 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.2-3.9], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,355 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $53 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.43/sh now → $1.72 mid-life (likely $1.54–$2.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 608 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $48 (overshoots $1.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46.50 is $11 below CC-SS $57.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.48 collected) or spot ≥ $47.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,340 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,326 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $46.50): -$20,544 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $57): -$67 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,625 (+$17,715 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-359 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,266, the opportunity cost of earning $3,040/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $45 | 9 Oct | 9d | 9.1% | 78%hist 82% | 45%hist 41% | +7pp | $1,420 | $4,733 | — | $24,165 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $45 9.1% OTM over spot $41.23 9 Oct 2026 (9d, $0.75 mid) = $1,420 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,733/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $45.75) 82% EV / mo +$1,516 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,091/mo median; plan ~$1,422/mo after 68% keep · $10,761 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [0.9-4.0], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,832 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $53 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.30/sh now → $1.63 mid-life (likely $1.69–$2.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 991 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $46 (overshoots $1.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $13 below CC-SS $57.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.71 collected) or spot ≥ $45.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,340 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,326 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $45): -$24,165 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,179 (+$14,161 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-359 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,820, the opportunity cost of earning $4,733/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $42.50 | 9 Oct | 9d | 3.1% | 62%hist 64% | 78%hist 68% | +10pp | $2,780 | $9,267 | +$4,533 | $27,805 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $42.50 3.1% OTM over spot $41.23 9 Oct 2026 (9d, $1.42 mid) = $2,780 credit for the 9d cycle → $9,267/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42.50) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $43.92) 73% EV / mo +$1,910 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,953/mo median; plan ~$2,008/mo after 68% keep · $13,720 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.0-3.8], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$172 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $52 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.09/sh now → $1.48 mid-life (likely $1.93–$2.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,908 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $44 (overshoots $1.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42.50 is $15 below CC-SS $57.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.39 collected) or spot ≥ $43.92 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,340 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,326 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $42.50): -$27,805 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,819 (+$10,521 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-359 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,460, the opportunity cost of earning $9,267/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 34 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.157 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$38,326 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-359
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45 | 2d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.17 | 18/20 | $4,590 | $4,435 | 91% | 92% | +$2,754 | -$22,720 | 378.7% | $-21,869 (vs do-nothing $-21,510) |
| $44.50 | 2d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.21 | 15/20 | $4,725 | $4,638 | 88% | 90% | +$2,480 | -$19,624 | 327.1% | $-18,974 (vs do-nothing $-18,615) |
| $44 | 2d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.28 | 11/20 | $4,620 | $4,622 | 85% | 87% | +$2,224 | -$14,864 | 247.7% | $-14,483 (vs do-nothing $-14,124) |
| $43.50 | 2d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.36 | 9/20 | $4,860 | $4,908 | 80% | 84% | +$2,039 | -$12,539 | 209.0% | $-12,293 (vs do-nothing $-11,934) |
| $45 | 9d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.71 | 20/20 | $4,733 | $4,533 | 78% | 82% | +$1,516 | -$24,165 | 402.7% | $-23,179 (vs do-nothing $-22,820) |
| $44.50 | 9d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.81 | 17/20 | $4,590 | $4,458 | 76% | 80% | +$1,344 | -$21,220 | 353.7% | $-20,436 (vs do-nothing $-20,077) |
| $43 | 2d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.46 | 7/20 | $4,830 | $4,922 | 75% | 80% | +$1,715 | -$10,033 | 167.2% | $-9,921 (vs do-nothing $-9,562) |
| $45 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.25 | 20/20 | $4,688 | $4,488 | 74% | 79% | +$1,310 | -$23,085 | 384.7% | $-22,099 (vs do-nothing $-21,740) |
| $44 | 9d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.93 | 15/20 | $4,650 | $4,562 | 73% | 79% | +$1,259 | -$19,294 | 321.6% | $-18,644 (vs do-nothing $-18,285) |
| $44.50 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.34 | 18/20 | $4,523 | $4,368 | 71% | 78% | +$1,089 | -$21,514 | 358.6% | $-20,663 (vs do-nothing $-20,304) |
| $43.50 | 9d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.06 | 13/20 | $4,593 | $4,551 | 70% | 77% | +$1,125 | -$17,202 | 286.7% | $-16,687 (vs do-nothing $-16,328) |
| $42.50 | 2d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.60 | 6/20 | $5,400 | $5,515 | 69% | 77% | +$1,674 | -$8,815 | 146.9% | $-8,771 (vs do-nothing $-8,412) |
| $44 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.49 | 17/20 | $4,749 | $4,617 | 69% | 76% | +$1,091 | -$20,914 | 348.6% | $-20,130 (vs do-nothing $-19,771) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 | 23d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.97 | 18/20 | $4,625 | $4,470 | 67% | 75% | +$928 | -$21,280 | 354.7% | $-20,429 (vs do-nothing $-20,070) |
| $43.50 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.62 | 15/20 | $4,556 | $4,469 | 66% | 75% | +$922 | -$19,009 | 316.8% | $-18,359 (vs do-nothing $-18,000) |
| $43 | 9d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.17 | 12/20 | $4,680 | $4,660 | 66% | 74% | +$914 | -$16,347 | 272.4% | $-15,899 (vs do-nothing $-15,540) |
| $43 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.83 | 14/20 | $4,804 | $4,739 | 64% | 73% | +$991 | -$18,147 | 302.5% | $-17,565 (vs do-nothing $-17,206) |
| $42 | 2d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.76 | 4/20 | $4,560 | $4,720 | 63% | 73% | +$1,158 | -$6,013 | 100.2% | $-6,103 (vs do-nothing $-5,744) |
| $42.50 | 9d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.39 | 10/20 | $4,633 | $4,658 | 62% | 73% | +$955 | -$13,902 | 231.7% | $-13,589 (vs do-nothing $-13,230) |
| $43 | 23d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.31 | 15/20 | $4,520 | $4,432 | 62% | 73% | +$813 | -$18,724 | 312.1% | $-18,074 (vs do-nothing $-17,715) |
| $42.50 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.01 | 12/20 | $4,522 | $4,502 | 61% | 72% | +$858 | -$15,939 | 265.6% | $-15,491 (vs do-nothing $-15,132) |
| $42 | 9d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.56 | 9/20 | $4,680 | $4,728 | 59% | 71% | +$817 | -$12,809 | 213.5% | $-12,563 (vs do-nothing $-12,204) |
| $42 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.21 | 11/20 | $4,558 | $4,561 | 58% | 70% | +$800 | -$14,941 | 249.0% | $-14,560 (vs do-nothing $-14,201) |
| $42 | 23d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.71 | 13/20 | $4,595 | $4,553 | 58% | 70% | +$747 | -$17,007 | 283.5% | $-16,492 (vs do-nothing $-16,133) |
| $41.50 | 2d | 2 Oct 2026 | $0.95 | 4/20 | $5,700 | $5,860 | 55% | 69% | +$1,136 | -$6,137 | 102.3% | $-6,227 (vs do-nothing $-5,868) |
| $41.50 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.41 | 11/20 | $4,971 | $4,973 | 55% | 69% | +$776 | -$15,271 | 254.5% | $-14,890 (vs do-nothing $-14,531) |
| $41.50 | 9d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.78 | 8/20 | $4,747 | $4,817 | 55% | 69% | +$758 | -$11,610 | 193.5% | $-11,431 (vs do-nothing $-11,072) |
| $41 | 23d | 23 Oct 2026 | $3.10 | 12/20 | $4,852 | $4,832 | 53% | 68% | +$619 | -$16,431 | 273.8% | $-15,983 (vs do-nothing $-15,624) |
| $41 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.64 | 10/20 | $4,950 | $4,975 | 52% | 67% | +$705 | -$14,152 | 235.9% | $-13,839 (vs do-nothing $-13,480) |
| $41 | 9d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.01 | 7/20 | $4,690 | $4,782 | 50% | 67% | +$657 | -$10,348 | 172.5% | $-10,236 (vs do-nothing $-9,877) |
| $40.50 | 16d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.89 | 9/20 | $4,877 | $4,924 | 48% | 66% | +$636 | -$12,962 | 216.0% | $-12,716 (vs do-nothing $-12,357) |
| $41 | 2d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.18 | 3/20 | $5,310 | $5,492 | 48% | 66% | +$815 | -$4,684 | 78.1% | $-4,841 (vs do-nothing $-4,482) |
| $40.50 | 9d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.27 | 6/20 | $4,540 | $4,655 | 46% | 65% | +$566 | -$9,013 | 150.2% | $-8,969 (vs do-nothing $-8,610) |
| $40.50 | 2d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.45 | 3/20 | $6,525 | $6,708 | 40% | 62% | +$749 | -$4,753 | 79.2% | $-4,910 (vs do-nothing $-4,551) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.