20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $57.82 (banked floor $55.39) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,060/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $192/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-39,750 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 9 Oct 2026 · 8d | 19 × $43.50 | 78% | $4,774 | $1,797 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 11 × $55 | 9 Oct | 8d | 36.8% | 99%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | +0pp | $55 | $206 | -$4,568 | $3,051 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 11 × $55 36.8% OTM over spot $40.20 9 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.06 mid) = $55 credit for the 8d cycle → $206/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $55.06) 99% EV / mo +$163 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $111/mo median; plan ~$75/mo after 68% keep · $424 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.0], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,353 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $62 @ 80% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 11 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.10/sh now → $2.19 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $3 below CC-SS $57.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $55.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.92 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,828 − CC assignment net of premium (11 × $55): -$3,051 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $57): -$669 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,642 (+$37,108 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-409 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,233, the opportunity cost of earning $206/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $46.50 | 9 Oct | 8d | 15.7% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 14% | +3pp | $540 | $2,025 | -$2,749 | $22,107 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $46.50 15.7% OTM over spot $40.20 9 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.30 mid) = $540 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,025/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $46.80) 91% EV / mo +$994 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,093/mo median; plan ~$743/mo after 68% keep · $5,268 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-3.8], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,727 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $52 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.31/sh now → $1.63 mid-life (likely $1.33–$2.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 323 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $47 (overshoots $0.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46.50 is $11 below CC-SS $57.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $46.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.92 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,828 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $46.50): -$22,107 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,029 (+$18,721 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-409 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,620, the opportunity cost of earning $2,025/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $45 | 9 Oct | 8d | 12.0% | 85%hist 86% | 30%hist 33% | +7pp | $798 | $2,992 | -$1,781 | $23,567 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $45 12.0% OTM over spot $40.20 9 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.44 mid) = $798 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,992/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $45.45) 87% EV / mo +$1,256 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,533/mo median; plan ~$1,043/mo after 68% keep · $7,658 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.2-3.9], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,135 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $51 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.18/sh now → $1.54 mid-life (likely $1.43–$2.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 624 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $46 (overshoots $1.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $13 below CC-SS $57.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $45.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.92 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,828 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $45): -$23,567 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $57): -$74 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,563 (+$17,187 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-409 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,154, the opportunity cost of earning $2,992/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $43.50 | 9 Oct | 8d | 8.2% | 78%hist 82% | 45%hist 41% | +9pp | $1,273 | $4,774 | — | $25,942 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $43.50 8.2% OTM over spot $40.20 9 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.71 mid) = $1,273 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,774/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $44.20) 82% EV / mo +$1,668 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,101/mo median; plan ~$1,428/mo after 68% keep · $10,694 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.3-4.4], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,494 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $51 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.06/sh now → $1.46 mid-life (likely $1.50–$2.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 993 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $44 (overshoots $0.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43.50 is $14 below CC-SS $57.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.67 collected) or spot ≥ $44.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.92 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,828 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $43.50): -$25,942 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $57): -$74 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,938 (+$14,812 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-409 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,529, the opportunity cost of earning $4,774/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $41 | 9 Oct | 8d | 2.0% | 59%hist 68% | 84%hist 80% | +10pp | $2,520 | $9,450 | +$4,676 | $27,762 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $41 2.0% OTM over spot $40.20 9 Oct 2026 (8d, $1.43 mid) = $2,520 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $41) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $42.43) 71% EV / mo +$2,029 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,728/mo median; plan ~$1,855/mo after 68% keep · $16,771 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.1-4.6], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 66% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$151 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $51 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.86/sh now → $1.32 mid-life (likely $1.75–$2.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,993 simulated challenges: the $41 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $42 (overshoots $0.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $41 is $17 below CC-SS $57.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.40 collected) or spot ≥ $42.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $41)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.92 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,828 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $41): -$27,762 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $57): -$149 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,833 (+$12,917 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-409 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,424, the opportunity cost of earning $9,450/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.158 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$40,828 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-409
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43.50 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.67 | 19/20 | $4,774 | $4,598 | 78% | 82% | +$1,668 | -$25,942 | 432.4% | $-24,938 (vs do-nothing $-24,529) |
| $43 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.78 | 16/20 | $4,680 | $4,552 | 75% | 80% | +$1,512 | -$22,470 | 374.5% | $-21,689 (vs do-nothing $-21,280) |
| $43.50 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.21 | 19/20 | $4,598 | $4,422 | 73% | 79% | +$1,438 | -$24,916 | 415.3% | $-23,912 (vs do-nothing $-23,503) |
| $42.50 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.90 | 14/20 | $4,725 | $4,629 | 72% | 78% | +$1,375 | -$20,193 | 336.6% | $-19,561 (vs do-nothing $-19,152) |
| $43 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.35 | 17/20 | $4,590 | $4,446 | 70% | 77% | +$1,231 | -$22,905 | 381.8% | $-22,050 (vs do-nothing $-21,641) |
| $43 | 22d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.75 | 19/20 | $4,534 | $4,358 | 68% | 76% | +$954 | -$24,840 | 414.0% | $-23,836 (vs do-nothing $-23,427) |
| $42 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.03 | 12/20 | $4,635 | $4,571 | 68% | 76% | +$1,177 | -$17,752 | 295.9% | $-17,269 (vs do-nothing $-16,860) |
| $42.50 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.45 | 16/20 | $4,640 | $4,512 | 67% | 75% | +$1,044 | -$22,198 | 370.0% | $-21,417 (vs do-nothing $-21,008) |
| $42 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.61 | 15/20 | $4,830 | $4,718 | 64% | 74% | +$1,001 | -$21,320 | 355.3% | $-20,614 (vs do-nothing $-20,205) |
| $41.50 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.19 | 11/20 | $4,909 | $4,861 | 64% | 73% | +$1,108 | -$16,647 | 277.4% | $-16,238 (vs do-nothing $-15,829) |
| $42 | 22d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.14 | 16/20 | $4,669 | $4,541 | 63% | 73% | +$979 | -$21,894 | 364.9% | $-21,113 (vs do-nothing $-20,704) |
| $41.50 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.83 | 13/20 | $4,758 | $4,678 | 61% | 72% | +$997 | -$18,842 | 314.0% | $-18,284 (vs do-nothing $-17,875) |
| $41 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.40 | 9/20 | $4,725 | $4,709 | 59% | 71% | +$1,015 | -$13,881 | 231.4% | $-13,621 (vs do-nothing $-13,212) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $41 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.02 | 12/20 | $4,848 | $4,784 | 58% | 70% | +$787 | -$17,764 | 296.1% | $-17,281 (vs do-nothing $-16,872) |
| $41 | 22d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.51 | 14/20 | $4,792 | $4,696 | 58% | 71% | +$857 | -$20,039 | 334.0% | $-19,407 (vs do-nothing $-18,998) |
| $40.50 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.23 | 11/20 | $4,906 | $4,858 | 55% | 69% | +$848 | -$16,603 | 276.7% | $-16,194 (vs do-nothing $-15,785) |
| $40.50 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.58 | 8/20 | $4,740 | $4,740 | 55% | 69% | +$827 | -$12,595 | 209.9% | $-12,409 (vs do-nothing $-12,000) |
| $40 | 22d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.90 | 12/20 | $4,745 | $4,681 | 52% | 68% | +$660 | -$17,908 | 298.5% | $-17,425 (vs do-nothing $-17,016) |
| $40 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.46 | 10/20 | $4,920 | $4,888 | 52% | 67% | +$681 | -$15,364 | 256.1% | $-15,029 (vs do-nothing $-14,620) |
| $40 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.82 | 7/20 | $4,778 | $4,794 | 50% | 67% | +$742 | -$11,203 | 186.7% | $-11,091 (vs do-nothing $-10,682) |
| $39.50 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.68 | 9/20 | $4,824 | $4,808 | 48% | 66% | +$504 | -$14,079 | 234.7% | $-13,819 (vs do-nothing $-13,410) |
| $39.50 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.05 | 6/20 | $4,612 | $4,644 | 46% | 65% | +$563 | -$9,764 | 162.7% | $-9,727 (vs do-nothing $-9,318) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.