20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $58.72 (banked floor $56.27) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,879/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $184/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-34,710 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 9 Oct 2026 · 7d | 19 × $46.50 | 78% | $4,967 | $2,517 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 15 × $56 | 9 Oct | 7d | 29.7% | 99%hist 96% | 2%hist 3% | -1pp | $45 | $193 | -$4,774 | $4,030 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $56 29.7% OTM over spot $43.16 9 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.05 mid) = $45 credit for the 7d cycle → $193/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $56) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $56.05) 99% EV / mo +$158 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $216/mo median; plan ~$147/mo after 68% keep · $1,213 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.1-3.5], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,895 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026) $83 @ 95% POP 94% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.77/sh now → $1.96 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $56 is $3 below CC-SS $58.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $56.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $56)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.72, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,710 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,993 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $56): -$4,030 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $56): -$1,193 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,940 (+$22,770 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,490 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-450, the opportunity cost of earning $193/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $49.50 | 9 Oct | 7d | 14.7% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | +2pp | $440 | $1,886 | -$3,081 | $17,993 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $49.50 14.7% OTM over spot $43.16 9 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.24 mid) = $440 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,886/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $49.74) 92% EV / mo +$892 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,064/mo median; plan ~$724/mo after 68% keep · $6,151 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.3-4.5], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,721 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026) $66 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.23/sh now → $1.58 mid-life (likely $1.22–$2.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 318 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $51 (overshoots $1.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49.50 is $9 below CC-SS $58.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $49.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.72, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,710 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,993 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $49.50): -$17,993 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,710 (+$10,000 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,490 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,220, the opportunity cost of earning $1,886/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 20 × $48 | 9 Oct | 7d | 11.2% | 86%hist 86% | 29%hist 25% | +4pp | $780 | $3,343 | -$1,624 | $20,653 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48 11.2% OTM over spot $43.16 9 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.41 mid) = $780 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,343/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $48.41) 88% EV / mo +$1,417 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,702/mo median; plan ~$1,158/mo after 68% keep · $9,787 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.2-4.2], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,217 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026) $65 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.12/sh now → $1.50 mid-life (likely $1.36–$2.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 565 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $49 (overshoots $1.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $11 below CC-SS $58.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $48.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.72, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,710 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,993 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48): -$20,653 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,370 (+$7,340 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,490 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,880, the opportunity cost of earning $3,343/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $46.50 | 9 Oct | 7d | 7.7% | 78%hist 82% | 45%hist 41% | +8pp | $1,159 | $4,967 | — | $22,053 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $46.50 7.7% OTM over spot $43.16 9 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.64 mid) = $1,159 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,967/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $47.14) 82% EV / mo +$1,580 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,197/mo median; plan ~$1,494/mo after 68% keep · $13,322 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.3-4.3], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,536 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026) $63 @ 93% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.01/sh now → $1.42 mid-life (likely $1.45–$2.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 914 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $47 (overshoots $0.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46.50 is $12 below CC-SS $58.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.61 collected) or spot ≥ $47.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.72, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,710 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,993 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $46.50): -$22,053 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$239 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,008 (+$5,702 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,490 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,518, the opportunity cost of earning $4,967/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $44 | 9 Oct | 7d | 1.9% | 60%hist 68% | 84%hist 80% | +11pp | $2,376 | $10,183 | +$5,216 | $24,114 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $44 1.9% OTM over spot $43.16 9 Oct 2026 (7d, $1.36 mid) = $2,376 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,183/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $45.36) 71% EV / mo +$1,842 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,147/mo median; plan ~$2,140/mo after 68% keep · $17,524 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.3-4.5], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$53 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026) $56 @ 89% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.82/sh now → $1.29 mid-life (likely $1.71–$2.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,955 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $45 (overshoots $1.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $15 below CC-SS $58.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.32 collected) or spot ≥ $45.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.72, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,710 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,993 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $44): -$24,114 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$477 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,308 (+$3,402 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,490 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,818, the opportunity cost of earning $10,183/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 50 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$27,993 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-11,490
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46.50 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.61 | 19/20 | $4,967 | $4,831 | 78% | 82% | +$1,580 | -$22,053 | 367.5% | $-29,008 (vs do-nothing $-17,518) |
| $46 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.72 | 17/20 | $5,246 | $5,203 | 75% | 80% | +$1,540 | -$20,394 | 339.9% | $-27,827 (vs do-nothing $-16,337) |
| $46.50 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.23 | 19/20 | $5,008 | $4,871 | 72% | 78% | +$1,273 | -$20,875 | 347.9% | $-27,830 (vs do-nothing $-16,340) |
| $45.50 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.86 | 14/20 | $5,160 | $5,259 | 72% | 78% | +$1,445 | -$17,299 | 288.3% | $-25,448 (vs do-nothing $-13,958) |
| $46 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.36 | 17/20 | $4,954 | $4,912 | 70% | 76% | +$1,154 | -$19,306 | 321.8% | $-26,739 (vs do-nothing $-15,249) |
| $45 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.98 | 12/20 | $5,040 | $5,233 | 68% | 75% | +$1,183 | -$15,284 | 254.7% | $-23,910 (vs do-nothing $-12,420) |
| $46 | 21d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.90 | 19/20 | $5,157 | $5,021 | 67% | 75% | +$1,105 | -$20,552 | 342.5% | $-27,507 (vs do-nothing $-16,017) |
| $45.50 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.52 | 16/20 | $5,211 | $5,216 | 67% | 75% | +$1,151 | -$18,715 | 311.9% | $-26,386 (vs do-nothing $-14,896) |
| $46 | 28d | 30 Oct 2026 | $2.33 | 20/20 | $4,993 | $4,809 | 66% | 75% | +$1,091 | -$20,773 | 346.2% | $-27,490 (vs do-nothing $-16,000) |
| $46 | 42d | 13 Nov 2026 | $3.65 | 19/20 | $4,954 | $4,817 | 65% | 76% | +$1,613 | -$17,227 | 287.1% | $-24,182 (vs do-nothing $-12,692) |
| $46 | 35d | 6 Nov 2026 | $3.00 | 20/20 | $5,143 | $4,959 | 65% | 74% | +$893 | -$19,433 | 323.9% | $-26,150 (vs do-nothing $-14,660) |
| $45 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.68 | 14/20 | $5,040 | $5,139 | 64% | 73% | +$1,017 | -$16,851 | 280.9% | $-25,000 (vs do-nothing $-13,510) |
| $44.50 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.14 | 11/20 | $5,374 | $5,615 | 64% | 73% | +$1,116 | -$14,384 | 239.7% | $-23,249 (vs do-nothing $-11,759) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45 | 21d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.23 | 16/20 | $5,097 | $5,102 | 63% | 73% | +$954 | -$18,379 | 306.3% | $-26,050 (vs do-nothing $-14,560) |
| $45 | 28d | 30 Oct 2026 | $2.72 | 17/20 | $4,954 | $4,912 | 62% | 73% | +$904 | -$18,694 | 311.6% | $-26,127 (vs do-nothing $-14,637) |
| $45 | 42d | 13 Nov 2026 | $4.00 | 18/20 | $5,143 | $5,053 | 61% | 74% | +$1,514 | -$17,490 | 291.5% | $-24,684 (vs do-nothing $-13,194) |
| $45 | 35d | 6 Nov 2026 | $3.35 | 18/20 | $5,169 | $5,079 | 61% | 72% | +$806 | -$18,660 | 311.0% | $-25,854 (vs do-nothing $-14,364) |
| $44.50 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.86 | 13/20 | $5,181 | $5,328 | 61% | 72% | +$962 | -$16,064 | 267.7% | $-24,451 (vs do-nothing $-12,961) |
| $44 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.32 | 9/20 | $5,091 | $5,426 | 60% | 71% | +$921 | -$12,057 | 200.9% | $-21,399 (vs do-nothing $-9,909) |
| $44 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.05 | 12/20 | $5,271 | $5,465 | 58% | 70% | +$885 | -$15,200 | 253.3% | $-23,826 (vs do-nothing $-12,336) |
| $44 | 42d | 13 Nov 2026 | $4.40 | 16/20 | $5,029 | $5,033 | 58% | 73% | +$1,344 | -$16,507 | 275.1% | $-24,178 (vs do-nothing $-12,688) |
| $44 | 35d | 6 Nov 2026 | $3.75 | 16/20 | $5,143 | $5,148 | 58% | 71% | +$729 | -$17,547 | 292.4% | $-25,218 (vs do-nothing $-13,728) |
| $44 | 21d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.61 | 14/20 | $5,220 | $5,319 | 58% | 70% | +$842 | -$16,949 | 282.5% | $-25,098 (vs do-nothing $-13,608) |
| $44 | 28d | 30 Oct 2026 | $3.10 | 15/20 | $4,982 | $5,034 | 58% | 70% | +$785 | -$17,425 | 290.4% | $-25,335 (vs do-nothing $-13,845) |
| $43.50 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.53 | 8/20 | $5,246 | $5,628 | 55% | 69% | +$837 | -$10,949 | 182.5% | $-20,530 (vs do-nothing $-9,040) |
| $43.50 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.25 | 11/20 | $5,304 | $5,544 | 55% | 69% | +$787 | -$14,263 | 237.7% | $-23,128 (vs do-nothing $-11,638) |
| $43 | 42d | 13 Nov 2026 | $4.80 | 15/20 | $5,143 | $5,195 | 54% | 71% | +$1,213 | -$16,375 | 272.9% | $-24,285 (vs do-nothing $-12,795) |
| $43 | 35d | 6 Nov 2026 | $4.20 | 14/20 | $5,040 | $5,139 | 54% | 69% | +$656 | -$16,123 | 268.7% | $-24,272 (vs do-nothing $-12,782) |
| $43 | 28d | 30 Oct 2026 | $3.50 | 14/20 | $5,250 | $5,349 | 53% | 68% | +$670 | -$17,103 | 285.1% | $-25,252 (vs do-nothing $-13,762) |
| $43 | 21d | 23 Oct 2026 | $3.00 | 12/20 | $5,143 | $5,336 | 53% | 68% | +$638 | -$15,260 | 254.3% | $-23,886 (vs do-nothing $-12,396) |
| $43 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.47 | 10/20 | $5,293 | $5,581 | 52% | 67% | +$694 | -$13,247 | 220.8% | $-22,350 (vs do-nothing $-10,860) |
| $42 | 42d | 13 Nov 2026 | $5.30 | 14/20 | $5,300 | $5,399 | 50% | 69% | +$1,144 | -$15,983 | 266.4% | $-24,132 (vs do-nothing $-12,642) |
| $42 | 35d | 6 Nov 2026 | $4.65 | 13/20 | $5,181 | $5,328 | 50% | 68% | +$575 | -$15,687 | 261.4% | $-24,074 (vs do-nothing $-12,584) |
| $43 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.76 | 7/20 | $5,280 | $5,709 | 50% | 67% | +$725 | -$9,770 | 162.8% | $-19,589 (vs do-nothing $-8,099) |
| $42 | 28d | 30 Oct 2026 | $3.95 | 12/20 | $5,079 | $5,272 | 49% | 66% | +$514 | -$15,320 | 255.3% | $-23,946 (vs do-nothing $-12,456) |
| $42.50 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.72 | 9/20 | $5,246 | $5,581 | 48% | 66% | +$625 | -$12,147 | 202.4% | $-21,489 (vs do-nothing $-9,999) |
| $42 | 21d | 23 Oct 2026 | $3.50 | 10/20 | $5,000 | $5,288 | 47% | 66% | +$526 | -$13,217 | 220.3% | $-22,320 (vs do-nothing $-10,830) |
| $41 | 42d | 13 Nov 2026 | $5.75 | 13/20 | $5,339 | $5,486 | 47% | 68% | +$985 | -$15,557 | 259.3% | $-23,944 (vs do-nothing $-12,454) |
| $41 | 35d | 6 Nov 2026 | $5.20 | 12/20 | $5,349 | $5,542 | 46% | 66% | +$552 | -$15,020 | 250.3% | $-23,646 (vs do-nothing $-12,156) |
| $42.50 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.03 | 6/20 | $5,220 | $5,696 | 46% | 65% | +$643 | -$8,512 | 141.9% | $-18,570 (vs do-nothing $-7,080) |
| $42 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.98 | 8/20 | $5,109 | $5,491 | 45% | 65% | +$537 | -$10,989 | 183.2% | $-20,570 (vs do-nothing $-9,080) |
| $41 | 28d | 30 Oct 2026 | $4.50 | 11/20 | $5,304 | $5,544 | 44% | 65% | +$465 | -$14,538 | 242.3% | $-23,403 (vs do-nothing $-11,913) |
| $41.50 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $3.20 | 8/20 | $5,486 | $5,868 | 42% | 63% | +$415 | -$11,213 | 186.9% | $-20,794 (vs do-nothing $-9,304) |
| $41 | 21d | 23 Oct 2026 | $4.05 | 9/20 | $5,207 | $5,542 | 42% | 64% | +$446 | -$12,300 | 205.0% | $-21,642 (vs do-nothing $-10,152) |
| $42 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.33 | 5/20 | $4,993 | $5,516 | 41% | 63% | +$556 | -$7,193 | 119.9% | $-17,490 (vs do-nothing $-6,000) |
| $41 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $3.50 | 7/20 | $5,250 | $5,679 | 38% | 62% | +$345 | -$9,952 | 165.9% | $-19,771 (vs do-nothing $-8,281) |
| $41.50 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.59 | 5/20 | $5,550 | $6,073 | 36% | 61% | +$430 | -$7,313 | 121.9% | $-17,610 (vs do-nothing $-6,120) |
| $40.50 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $3.80 | 7/20 | $5,700 | $6,129 | 35% | 61% | +$297 | -$10,092 | 168.2% | $-19,911 (vs do-nothing $-8,421) |
| $41 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.88 | 5/20 | $6,171 | $6,695 | 32% | 59% | +$310 | -$7,418 | 123.6% | $-17,715 (vs do-nothing $-6,225) |
| $40.50 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.20 | 4/20 | $5,486 | $6,056 | 27% | 58% | +$159 | -$6,007 | 100.1% | $-16,542 (vs do-nothing $-5,052) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.