20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $57.99 (banked floor $55.39) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $7,835/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $160/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-39,030 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 9 Oct 2026 · 3d | 18 × $44 | 86% | $4,140 | $3,480 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 16 Oct 2026 · 10d | 20 × $44.50 | 79% | $4,020 | $1,087 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 16 × $52 | 9 Oct | 3d | 27.5% | 99%hist 96% | 1%hist 3% | +0pp | $16 | $160 | -$3,980 | $9,574 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $52 27.5% OTM over spot $40.78 9 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.02 mid) = $16 credit for the 3d cycle → $160/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $52.02) 99% EV / mo +$133 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $14/mo median; plan ~$9/mo after 68% keep · $17 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.6-3.2], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,966 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $63 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.75/sh now → $1.24 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $6 below CC-SS $57.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.00/sh (~25% of the $0.01 collected) or spot ≥ $52.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,030 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,145 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $52): -$9,574 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $57): -$385 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,845 (+$30,185 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-813 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,032, the opportunity cost of earning $160/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $45 | 9 Oct | 3d | 10.4% | 91%hist 96% | 17%hist 13% | +5pp | $266 | $2,660 | -$1,480 | $24,422 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $45 10.4% OTM over spot $40.78 9 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.15 mid) = $266 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,660/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $45.15) 92% EV / mo +$1,377 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,627/mo median; plan ~$1,107/mo after 68% keep · $7,517 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-3.4], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,573 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $54 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.37/sh now → $0.97 mid-life (likely $0.84–$1.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 261 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $46 (overshoots $0.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $13 below CC-SS $57.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $45.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,030 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,145 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $45): -$24,422 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $57): -$96 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,404 (+$15,626 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-813 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,591, the opportunity cost of earning $2,660/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $45 | 9 Oct | 3d | 10.4% | 91%hist 96% | 17%hist 13% | +7pp | $280 | $2,800 | -$1,340 | $25,707 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $45 10.4% OTM over spot $40.78 9 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.15 mid) = $280 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $45.15) 92% EV / mo +$1,450 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,722/mo median; plan ~$1,171/mo after 68% keep · $8,338 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-4.0], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,656 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $54 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.37/sh now → $0.97 mid-life (likely $0.92–$1.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 232 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $46 (overshoots $0.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $13 below CC-SS $57.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $45.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,030 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,145 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $45): -$25,707 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,593 (+$14,437 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-813 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,780, the opportunity cost of earning $2,800/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $44 | 9 Oct | 3d | 7.9% | 86%hist 87% | 28%hist 24% | +6pp | $414 | $4,140 | — | $24,775 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $44 7.9% OTM over spot $40.78 9 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.24 mid) = $414 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,140/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $44.24) 88% EV / mo +$1,816 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,267/mo median; plan ~$1,541/mo after 68% keep · $11,659 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [1.0-3.4], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,263 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $53 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.32/sh now → $0.93 mid-life (likely $0.92–$1.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 478 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $45 (overshoots $0.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $14 below CC-SS $57.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $44.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,030 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,145 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $44): -$24,775 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $57): -$193 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,853 (+$15,177 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-813 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,040, the opportunity cost of earning $4,140/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 16 × $42.50 | 9 Oct | 3d | 4.2% | 74%hist 83% | 54%hist 46% | +11pp | $784 | $7,840 | +$3,700 | $24,006 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $42.50 4.2% OTM over spot $40.78 9 Oct 2026 (3d, $0.52 mid) = $784 credit for the 3d cycle → $7,840/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42.50) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $43.02) 79% EV / mo +$2,315 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,235/mo median; plan ~$2,200/mo after 68% keep · $14,308 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.0-3.8], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$622 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $53 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.24/sh now → $0.88 mid-life (likely $1.04–$1.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,070 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $43 (overshoots $0.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42.50 is $15 below CC-SS $57.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $43.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,030 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,145 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $42.50): -$24,006 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $57): -$385 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,277 (+$15,753 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-813 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,464, the opportunity cost of earning $7,840/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 18 × $60 | 16 Oct | 10d | 47.1% | 99%hist 96% | 2%hist 3% | +0pp | $54 | $162 | -$3,858 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $60 47.1% OTM over spot $40.78 16 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.04 mid) = $54 credit for the 10d cycle → $162/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $60) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $60.04) 99% EV / mo +$112 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-19/mo median; plan ~$-13/mo after 68% keep · $-28 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.7-2.9], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,768 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $66 @ 78% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.79/sh now → $2.68 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $60 is at/above CC-SS $57.99: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $60.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $60)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,030 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,145 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $60): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $57): -$193 Total Position P&L @ SS: $922 (+$39,952 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-813 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,735, the opportunity cost of earning $162/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $48 | 16 Oct | 10d | 17.7% | 91%hist 96% | 19%hist 13% | +2pp | $520 | $1,560 | -$2,460 | $19,467 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48 17.7% OTM over spot $40.78 16 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.29 mid) = $520 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,560/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $48.29) 92% EV / mo +$700 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $841/mo median; plan ~$572/mo after 68% keep · $4,901 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.2-4.0], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,074 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $53 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.54/sh now → $1.80 mid-life (likely $1.35–$2.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 307 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $49 (overshoots $0.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $10 below CC-SS $57.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $48.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,030 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,145 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48): -$19,467 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,353 (+$20,677 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-813 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,540, the opportunity cost of earning $1,560/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $46 | 16 Oct | 10d | 12.8% | 85%hist 87% | 31%hist 31% | +4pp | $874 | $2,622 | -$1,398 | $21,914 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $46 12.8% OTM over spot $40.78 16 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.47 mid) = $874 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,622/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $46.47) 87% EV / mo +$1,000 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,335/mo median; plan ~$908/mo after 68% keep · $7,372 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.2-4.1], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,293 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $51 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.36/sh now → $1.67 mid-life (likely $1.44–$2.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 559 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $47 (overshoots $0.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $12 below CC-SS $57.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.46 collected) or spot ≥ $46.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,030 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,145 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $46): -$21,914 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $57): -$96 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,896 (+$18,134 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-813 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,083, the opportunity cost of earning $2,622/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $44.50 | 16 Oct | 10d | 9.1% | 79%hist 83% | 44%hist 40% | +8pp | $1,340 | $4,020 | — | $25,647 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $44.50 9.1% OTM over spot $40.78 16 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.71 mid) = $1,340 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,020/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44.50) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $45.20) 82% EV / mo +$1,305 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,850/mo median; plan ~$1,258/mo after 68% keep · $8,885 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.2-4.2], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,805 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $51 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.22/sh now → $1.57 mid-life (likely $1.57–$2.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 951 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $45 (overshoots $0.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44.50 is $13 below CC-SS $57.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.67 collected) or spot ≥ $45.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,030 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,145 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $44.50): -$25,647 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,533 (+$14,497 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-813 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,720, the opportunity cost of earning $4,020/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $42 | 16 Oct | 10d | 3.0% | 62%hist 65% | 78%hist 68% | +9pp | $2,680 | $8,040 | +$4,020 | $29,307 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $42 3.0% OTM over spot $40.78 16 Oct 2026 (10d, $1.35 mid) = $2,680 credit for the 10d cycle → $8,040/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $43.35) 73% EV / mo +$1,739 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,575/mo median; plan ~$1,751/mo after 68% keep · $14,691 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.2-4.2], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$162 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $51 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.01/sh now → $1.42 mid-life (likely $1.87–$2.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,924 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $43 (overshoots $0.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $16 below CC-SS $57.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.34 collected) or spot ≥ $43.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,030 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,145 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $42): -$29,307 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,193 (+$10,837 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-813 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,380, the opportunity cost of earning $8,040/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 33 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.166 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$40,145 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-813
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 | 3d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.23 | 18/20 | $4,140 | $3,998 | 86% | 88% | +$1,816 | -$24,775 | 412.9% | $-23,853 (vs do-nothing $-23,040) |
| $43.50 | 3d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.30 | 14/20 | $4,200 | $4,094 | 83% | 85% | +$1,683 | -$19,871 | 331.2% | $-19,335 (vs do-nothing $-18,522) |
| $44.50 | 10d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.67 | 20/20 | $4,020 | $3,860 | 79% | 82% | +$1,305 | -$25,647 | 427.5% | $-24,533 (vs do-nothing $-23,720) |
| $43 | 3d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.39 | 11/20 | $4,290 | $4,211 | 79% | 82% | +$1,540 | -$16,064 | 267.7% | $-15,817 (vs do-nothing $-15,004) |
| $44 | 10d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.76 | 18/20 | $4,104 | $3,962 | 76% | 81% | +$1,204 | -$23,821 | 397.0% | $-22,899 (vs do-nothing $-22,086) |
| $42.50 | 3d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.49 | 8/20 | $3,920 | $3,868 | 74% | 79% | +$1,158 | -$12,003 | 200.0% | $-12,045 (vs do-nothing $-11,232) |
| $43.50 | 10d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.87 | 16/20 | $4,176 | $4,052 | 73% | 79% | +$1,119 | -$21,798 | 363.3% | $-21,069 (vs do-nothing $-20,256) |
| $44 | 17d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.21 | 19/20 | $4,057 | $3,906 | 72% | 78% | +$990 | -$24,289 | 404.8% | $-23,271 (vs do-nothing $-22,458) |
| $43 | 10d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.00 | 14/20 | $4,200 | $4,094 | 70% | 77% | +$1,032 | -$19,591 | 326.5% | $-19,055 (vs do-nothing $-18,242) |
| $44 | 24d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.68 | 19/20 | $3,990 | $3,839 | 70% | 77% | +$1,020 | -$23,396 | 389.9% | $-22,378 (vs do-nothing $-21,565) |
| $43.50 | 17d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.35 | 17/20 | $4,050 | $3,917 | 69% | 76% | +$937 | -$22,344 | 372.4% | $-21,519 (vs do-nothing $-20,706) |
| $42 | 3d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.64 | 7/20 | $4,480 | $4,437 | 68% | 76% | +$1,181 | -$10,748 | 179.1% | $-10,886 (vs do-nothing $-10,073) |
| $43 | 17d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.47 | 16/20 | $4,151 | $4,027 | 67% | 75% | +$830 | -$21,638 | 360.6% | $-20,909 (vs do-nothing $-20,096) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $42.50 | 10d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.15 | 12/20 | $4,140 | $4,052 | 66% | 75% | +$931 | -$17,212 | 286.9% | $-16,869 (vs do-nothing $-16,056) |
| $43 | 24d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.97 | 16/20 | $3,940 | $3,816 | 65% | 74% | +$863 | -$20,838 | 347.3% | $-20,109 (vs do-nothing $-19,296) |
| $42.50 | 17d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.64 | 14/20 | $4,052 | $3,946 | 64% | 73% | +$765 | -$19,395 | 323.3% | $-18,859 (vs do-nothing $-18,046) |
| $42 | 10d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.34 | 10/20 | $4,020 | $3,950 | 62% | 73% | +$869 | -$14,654 | 244.2% | $-14,503 (vs do-nothing $-13,690) |
| $41.50 | 3d | 9 Oct 2026 | $0.80 | 5/20 | $4,000 | $3,975 | 61% | 72% | +$840 | -$7,847 | 130.8% | $-8,178 (vs do-nothing $-7,365) |
| $42 | 17d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.81 | 13/20 | $4,152 | $4,055 | 61% | 72% | +$705 | -$18,439 | 307.3% | $-17,999 (vs do-nothing $-17,186) |
| $42 | 24d | 30 Oct 2026 | $2.32 | 14/20 | $4,060 | $3,954 | 60% | 72% | +$761 | -$19,143 | 319.1% | $-18,607 (vs do-nothing $-17,794) |
| $41.50 | 10d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.51 | 9/20 | $4,077 | $4,016 | 58% | 71% | +$748 | -$13,485 | 224.8% | $-13,431 (vs do-nothing $-12,618) |
| $41.50 | 17d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.02 | 11/20 | $3,921 | $3,842 | 58% | 70% | +$633 | -$15,921 | 265.4% | $-15,674 (vs do-nothing $-14,861) |
| $41 | 24d | 30 Oct 2026 | $2.72 | 12/20 | $4,080 | $3,992 | 55% | 69% | +$636 | -$17,128 | 285.5% | $-16,785 (vs do-nothing $-15,972) |
| $41 | 3d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.00 | 4/20 | $4,000 | $3,984 | 55% | 68% | +$676 | -$6,397 | 106.6% | $-6,825 (vs do-nothing $-6,012) |
| $41 | 17d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.22 | 10/20 | $3,918 | $3,848 | 54% | 69% | +$557 | -$14,774 | 246.2% | $-14,623 (vs do-nothing $-13,810) |
| $41 | 10d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.72 | 8/20 | $4,128 | $4,076 | 54% | 68% | +$669 | -$12,219 | 203.6% | $-12,261 (vs do-nothing $-11,448) |
| $40.50 | 17d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.45 | 10/20 | $4,324 | $4,254 | 51% | 67% | +$554 | -$15,044 | 250.7% | $-14,893 (vs do-nothing $-14,080) |
| $40.50 | 10d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.95 | 7/20 | $4,095 | $4,052 | 50% | 66% | +$575 | -$10,881 | 181.3% | $-11,019 (vs do-nothing $-10,206) |
| $40 | 24d | 30 Oct 2026 | $3.25 | 10/20 | $4,062 | $3,992 | 49% | 67% | +$591 | -$14,744 | 245.7% | $-14,593 (vs do-nothing $-13,780) |
| $40 | 17d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.69 | 9/20 | $4,272 | $4,211 | 48% | 66% | +$479 | -$13,773 | 229.6% | $-13,719 (vs do-nothing $-12,906) |
| $40.50 | 3d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.24 | 4/20 | $4,960 | $4,944 | 47% | 65% | +$678 | -$6,501 | 108.4% | $-6,929 (vs do-nothing $-6,116) |
| $40 | 10d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.21 | 6/20 | $3,978 | $3,944 | 45% | 65% | +$488 | -$9,470 | 157.8% | $-9,705 (vs do-nothing $-8,892) |
| $40 | 3d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.50 | 3/20 | $4,500 | $4,493 | 40% | 62% | +$443 | -$4,948 | 82.5% | $-5,472 (vs do-nothing $-4,659) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.