20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $57.87 (banked floor $55.12) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $7,800/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $209/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-47,360 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 16 Oct 2026 · 8d | 19 × $40 | 79% | $3,919 | $1,497 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $55 | 16 Oct | 8d | 48.4% | 99%hist 96% | 2%hist 3% | +0pp | $57 | $214 | -$3,705 | $5,403 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $55 48.4% OTM over spot $37.06 16 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.04 mid) = $57 credit for the 8d cycle → $214/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $55.03) 99% EV / mo +$153 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-40/mo median; plan ~$-27/mo after 68% keep · $-186 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.0-4.0], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,111 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $62 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.10/sh now → $2.19 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $3 below CC-SS $57.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $55.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-47,360 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,704 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $55): -$5,403 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$183 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,242 (+$43,118 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,323 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,919, the opportunity cost of earning $214/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $44.65 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-29,595 (+$17,765 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $42.50 | 16 Oct | 8d | 14.7% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 24% | +2pp | $460 | $1,725 | -$2,194 | $30,288 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $42.50 14.7% OTM over spot $37.06 16 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.24 mid) = $460 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,725/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $42.74) 91% EV / mo +$825 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $902/mo median; plan ~$613/mo after 68% keep · $6,064 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.7-4.6], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,309 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $47 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.96/sh now → $1.38 mid-life (likely $1.12–$1.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 300 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $43 (overshoots $0.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42.50 is $15 below CC-SS $57.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $42.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-47,360 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,704 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $42.50): -$30,288 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,943 (+$18,417 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,323 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,620, the opportunity cost of earning $1,725/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $44.65 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,840, position total $-33,439 (+$13,921 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 18 × $41 | 16 Oct | 8d | 10.6% | 84%hist 87% | 32%hist 31% | +4pp | $702 | $2,632 | -$1,286 | $29,671 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $41 10.6% OTM over spot $37.06 16 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.41 mid) = $702 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,632/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $41) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $41.41) 86% EV / mo +$1,074 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,233/mo median; plan ~$838/mo after 68% keep · $9,005 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.5-5.2], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,637 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $47 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.84/sh now → $1.30 mid-life (likely $1.19–$1.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 645 simulated challenges: the $41 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $42 (overshoots $0.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $41 is $17 below CC-SS $57.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $41.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $41)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-47,360 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,704 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $41): -$29,671 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$367 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,693 (+$18,667 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,323 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,370, the opportunity cost of earning $2,632/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $44.65 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,868, position total $-35,459 (+$11,901 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $40 | 16 Oct | 8d | 7.9% | 79%hist 83% | 44%hist 40% | +9pp | $1,045 | $3,919 | — | $32,915 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $40 7.9% OTM over spot $37.06 16 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.56 mid) = $1,045 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,919/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $40) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $40.56) 82% EV / mo +$1,349 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,656/mo median; plan ~$1,126/mo after 68% keep · $11,082 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.9-5.4], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,319 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $46 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.76/sh now → $1.24 mid-life (likely $1.28–$2.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 934 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $41 (overshoots $0.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40 is $18 below CC-SS $57.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $40.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-47,360 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,704 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $40): -$32,915 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$183 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,754 (+$15,606 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,323 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,431, the opportunity cost of earning $3,919/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $44.65 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,790, position total $-37,385 (+$9,975 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $38 | 16 Oct | 8d | 2.5% | 62%hist 65% | 79%hist 68% | +12pp | $2,090 | $7,838 | +$3,919 | $35,670 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $38 2.5% OTM over spot $37.06 16 Oct 2026 (8d, $1.10 mid) = $2,090 credit for the 8d cycle → $7,838/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $38) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $39.10) 72% EV / mo +$1,653 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 51% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,342/mo median; plan ~$1,593/mo after 68% keep · $16,068 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.7-5.1], measured ONLY among the 51% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$71 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $47 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.61/sh now → $1.14 mid-life (likely $1.48–$2.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,880 simulated challenges: the $38 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $39 (overshoots $0.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $38 is $20 below CC-SS $57.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.10 collected) or spot ≥ $39.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $38)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-47,360 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,704 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $38): -$35,670 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$183 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,509 (+$12,851 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,323 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,186, the opportunity cost of earning $7,838/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $44.65 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,545, position total $-40,140 (+$7,220 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.170 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$48,704 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,323
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40 | 8d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.55 | 19/20 | $3,919 | $3,717 | 79% | 82% | +$1,349 | -$32,915 | 548.6% | $-31,754 (vs do-nothing $-29,431) |
| $39.50 | 8d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.65 | 16/20 | $3,900 | $3,723 | 75% | 80% | +$1,199 | -$28,358 | 472.6% | $-27,747 (vs do-nothing $-25,424) |
| $40 | 15d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.00 | 20/20 | $4,000 | $3,791 | 73% | 79% | +$1,087 | -$33,748 | 562.5% | $-32,403 (vs do-nothing $-30,080) |
| $39 | 8d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.74 | 15/20 | $4,162 | $3,993 | 71% | 77% | +$948 | -$27,201 | 453.3% | $-26,773 (vs do-nothing $-24,450) |
| $40 | 22d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.44 | 20/20 | $3,927 | $3,718 | 70% | 77% | +$1,006 | -$32,868 | 547.8% | $-31,523 (vs do-nothing $-29,200) |
| $39.50 | 15d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.11 | 18/20 | $3,996 | $3,803 | 70% | 77% | +$958 | -$31,075 | 517.9% | $-30,097 (vs do-nothing $-27,774) |
| $39 | 15d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.26 | 16/20 | $4,032 | $3,855 | 67% | 75% | +$906 | -$28,182 | 469.7% | $-27,571 (vs do-nothing $-25,248) |
| $38.50 | 8d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.91 | 12/20 | $4,095 | $3,950 | 66% | 74% | +$853 | -$22,157 | 369.3% | $-22,279 (vs do-nothing $-19,956) |
| $39 | 22d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.72 | 17/20 | $3,987 | $3,802 | 65% | 74% | +$856 | -$29,161 | 486.0% | $-28,367 (vs do-nothing $-26,044) |
| $38.50 | 15d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.42 | 14/20 | $3,976 | $3,815 | 64% | 73% | +$815 | -$25,135 | 418.9% | $-24,891 (vs do-nothing $-22,568) |
| $38 | 8d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.10 | 10/20 | $4,125 | $3,996 | 62% | 72% | +$870 | -$18,774 | 312.9% | $-19,263 (vs do-nothing $-16,940) |
| $38 | 15d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.62 | 13/20 | $4,212 | $4,059 | 60% | 71% | +$828 | -$23,730 | 395.5% | $-23,669 (vs do-nothing $-21,346) |
| $38 | 22d | 30 Oct 2026 | $2.06 | 14/20 | $3,933 | $3,771 | 59% | 71% | +$697 | -$24,939 | 415.7% | $-24,695 (vs do-nothing $-22,372) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $37.50 | 8d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.26 | 9/20 | $4,252 | $4,131 | 57% | 69% | +$683 | -$17,202 | 286.7% | $-17,875 (vs do-nothing $-15,552) |
| $37.50 | 15d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.82 | 11/20 | $4,004 | $3,867 | 56% | 70% | +$712 | -$20,409 | 340.2% | $-20,715 (vs do-nothing $-18,392) |
| $37 | 22d | 30 Oct 2026 | $2.48 | 12/20 | $4,058 | $3,913 | 53% | 68% | +$601 | -$22,073 | 367.9% | $-22,195 (vs do-nothing $-19,872) |
| $37 | 15d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.01 | 10/20 | $4,020 | $3,891 | 52% | 68% | +$590 | -$18,864 | 314.4% | $-19,353 (vs do-nothing $-17,030) |
| $37 | 8d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.50 | 7/20 | $3,938 | $3,832 | 51% | 67% | +$557 | -$13,562 | 226.0% | $-14,601 (vs do-nothing $-12,278) |
| $36.50 | 15d | 23 Oct 2026 | $2.25 | 9/20 | $4,050 | $3,929 | 48% | 66% | +$524 | -$17,211 | 286.9% | $-17,884 (vs do-nothing $-15,561) |
| $36.50 | 8d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.75 | 6/20 | $3,938 | $3,840 | 46% | 65% | +$492 | -$11,774 | 196.2% | $-12,997 (vs do-nothing $-10,674) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.