20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $58.27 (banked floor $55.52) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,946/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $292/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-50,310 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Status | Leg | Credit/sh | Credit | Opened | Closed | Close/sh | Banked | Account | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLOSED | 1x $45C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $20 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $17 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $45C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $20 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $17 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $45C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $20 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $17 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $45C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $20 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $17 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $45C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $20 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $17 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 3x $45C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $60 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $51 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 4x $45C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $80 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $68 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 4x $45C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $80 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $68 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 2x $45C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $40 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $34 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 2x $45C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | $40 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $34 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 3x $49C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.27 | $82 | 2026-10-05 | 2026-10-06 | $0.06 | $64 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 13x $49C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.27 | $355 | 2026-10-05 | 2026-10-06 | $0.06 | $277 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 4x $49C 9 Oct 2026 | $0.27 | $109 | 2026-10-05 | 2026-10-06 | $0.06 | $85 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| EXPIRED | 20x $48C 25 Sep 2026 | $0.23 | $466 | 2026-09-25 | 2026-09-28 | $0.00 | $466 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 20x $58C 2 Oct 2026 | $0.38 | $765 | 2026-09-22 | 2026-09-25 | $0.38 | $0 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 20x $50C 25 Sep 2026 | $0.40 | $795 | 2026-09-18 | 2026-09-22 | $0.40 | $0 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 20x $60C 18 Sep 2026 | $0.40 | $806 | 2026-09-09 | 2026-09-18 | $0.40 | $0 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| ASSIGNED | 20x $40C 4 Sep 2026 | $0.24 | $486 | 2026-09-01 | 2026-09-08 | $0.00 | $486 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| EXPIRED | 20x $49C 28 Aug 2026 | $0.91 | $1,826 | 2026-08-21 | 2026-08-31 | $0.00 | $1,826 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 20x $54C 28 Aug 2026 | $1.18 | $2,360 | 2026-08-18 | 2026-08-21 | $1.18 | $0 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 8x $70C 18 Sep 2026 | $0.97 | $775 | 2026-08-14 | 2026-08-18 | $0.76 | $167 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 5x $70C 18 Sep 2026 | $0.97 | $484 | 2026-08-14 | 2026-08-18 | $0.78 | $94 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 2x $70C 18 Sep 2026 | $0.97 | $194 | 2026-08-14 | 2026-08-18 | $0.78 | $38 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 5x $70C 18 Sep 2026 | $0.97 | $484 | 2026-08-14 | 2026-08-18 | $0.78 | $94 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 20x $50C 21 Aug 2026 | $0.51 | $1,020 | 2026-08-13 | 2026-08-14 | $0.51 | $0 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 10x $45C 14 Aug 2026 | $0.42 | $422 | 2026-08-10 | 2026-08-12 | $0.30 | $122 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 10x $45C 14 Aug 2026 | $0.42 | $422 | 2026-08-10 | 2026-08-12 | $0.30 | $122 | U13190865 | execution |
| EXPIRED | 20x $40.5C 31 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | $1,262 | 2026-07-28 | 2026-08-03 | $0.00 | $1,262 | U13190865 | execution |
| UNKNOWN | 20x $50C 7 Aug 2026 | $0.82 | $1,634 | 2026-07-27 | 2026-07-28 | $0.82 | $0 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 | $0.87 | $1,738 | 2026-07-20 | 2026-07-27 | $0.87 | $0 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 3x $42C 24 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | $202 | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-20 | $1.26 | $-176 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 1x $42C 24 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | $67 | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-20 | $1.27 | $-60 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 5x $42C 24 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | $336 | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-20 | $1.27 | $-299 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 4x $42C 24 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | $269 | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-20 | $1.27 | $-239 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 2x $42C 24 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | $134 | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-20 | $1.26 | $-118 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 4x $42C 24 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | $269 | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-20 | $1.26 | $-235 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 1x $42C 24 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | $67 | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-20 | $1.27 | $-60 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 20x $43C 17 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | $605 | 2026-07-16 | 2026-07-16 | $0.05 | $505 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 1x $53C 17 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | $47 | 2026-07-10 | 2026-07-11 | $0.23 | $24 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 1x $53C 17 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | $47 | 2026-07-10 | 2026-07-11 | $0.22 | $25 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 1x $53C 17 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | $47 | 2026-07-10 | 2026-07-11 | $0.23 | $24 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 1x $53C 17 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | $47 | 2026-07-10 | 2026-07-11 | $0.23 | $24 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 1x $53C 17 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | $47 | 2026-07-10 | 2026-07-11 | $0.23 | $24 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 1x $53C 17 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | $47 | 2026-07-10 | 2026-07-11 | $0.23 | $24 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 5x $53C 17 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | $236 | 2026-07-10 | 2026-07-11 | $0.23 | $121 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 1x $53C 17 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | $47 | 2026-07-10 | 2026-07-11 | $0.23 | $24 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 1x $53C 17 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | $47 | 2026-07-10 | 2026-07-11 | $0.23 | $24 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 5x $53C 17 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | $236 | 2026-07-10 | 2026-07-11 | $0.23 | $121 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 2x $53C 17 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | $94 | 2026-07-10 | 2026-07-11 | $0.23 | $48 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 19x $60C 17 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | $1,203 | 2026-07-02 | 2026-07-09 | $0.14 | $937 | U13190865 | seed |
| CLOSED | 1x $60C 17 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | $63 | 2026-07-02 | 2026-07-09 | $0.13 | $50 | U13190865 | seed |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 16 Oct 2026 · 4d | 17 × $39 | 81% | $4,718 | $3,056 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 23 Oct 2026 · 11d | 18 × $38.50 | 70% | $4,516 | $243 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 20 × $49 | 16 Oct | 4d | 35.4% | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | +0pp | $40 | $300 | -$4,418 | $18,501 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 ร $49 35.4% OTM over spot $36.20 16 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.03 mid) = $40 credit for the 4d cycle โ $300/mo projected Survival (stays โค $49) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays โค $49.02) 99% EV / mo +$197 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 49% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-68/mo median; plan ~$-46/mo after 68% keep · $-445 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.5], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,782 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $62 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.00/sh now โ $1.41 mid-life โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49 is $9 below CC-SS $58.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot โฅ $49.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $49)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $58.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,310 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,734 โ CC assignment net of premium (20 ร $49): -$18,501 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,077 (+$33,233 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,077 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,000, the opportunity cost of earning $300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $43.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-33,949 (+$16,361 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | ๐ก safe yield | 20 × $41 | 16 Oct | 4d | 13.3% | 91%hist 95% | 19%hist 14% | +6pp | $300 | $2,250 | -$2,468 | $34,241 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 ร $41 13.3% OTM over spot $36.20 16 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.16 mid) = $300 credit for the 4d cycle โ $2,250/mo projected Survival (stays โค $41) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays โค $41.16) 92% EV / mo +$899 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,190/mo median; plan ~$809/mo after 68% keep · $6,419 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.4-4.7], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,800 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $50 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.48/sh now โ $1.05 mid-life (likely $0.90โ$1.76) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 242 simulated challenges: the $41 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $42 (overshoots $1.03). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $41 is $17 below CC-SS $58.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot โฅ $41.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $41)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $58.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,310 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,734 โ CC assignment net of premium (20 ร $41): -$34,241 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,817 (+$17,493 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,077 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,740, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $43.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,060, position total $-38,009 (+$12,301 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 18 × $40 | 16 Oct | 4d | 10.5% | 87%hist 86% | 27%hist 24% | +8pp | $414 | $3,105 | -$1,612 | $32,473 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 ร $40 10.5% OTM over spot $36.20 16 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.24 mid) = $414 credit for the 4d cycle โ $3,105/mo projected Survival (stays โค $40) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays โค $40.24) 88% EV / mo +$1,147 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,501/mo median; plan ~$1,021/mo after 68% keep · $9,371 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.3-5.0], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,402 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $50 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.43/sh now โ $1.01 mid-life (likely $1.02โ$1.71) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 447 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $41 (overshoots $0.98). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40 is $18 below CC-SS $58.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot โฅ $40.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $58.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,310 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,734 โ CC assignment net of premium (18 ร $40): -$32,473 โ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 ร $57): -$250 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,299 (+$19,011 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,077 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,222, the opportunity cost of earning $3,105/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $43.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,310, position total $-39,255 (+$11,055 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | ๐ฏ 50% normal | 17 × $39 | 16 Oct | 4d | 7.7% | 81%hist 86% | 39%hist 32% | +9pp | $629 | $4,718 | — | $32,131 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 ร $39 7.7% OTM over spot $36.20 16 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.38 mid) = $629 credit for the 4d cycle โ $4,718/mo projected Survival (stays โค $39) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays โค $39.38) 84% EV / mo +$1,595 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,047/mo median; plan ~$1,392/mo after 68% keep · $12,124 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.5-4.0], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,016 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $50 @ 90% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.37/sh now โ $0.97 mid-life (likely $0.97โ$1.70) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 758 simulated challenges: the $39 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $40 (overshoots $0.96). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $39 is $19 below CC-SS $58.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot โฅ $39.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $39)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $58.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,310 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,734 โ CC assignment net of premium (17 ร $39): -$32,131 โ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 ร $57): -$375 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,082 (+$19,228 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,077 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,005, the opportunity cost of earning $4,718/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $43.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,477, position total $-40,420 (+$9,890 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $37.50 | 16 Oct | 4d | 3.6% | 67%hist 64% | 67%hist 57% | +12pp | $1,206 | $9,045 | +$4,328 | $36,181 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 ร $37.50 3.6% OTM over spot $36.20 16 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.70 mid) = $1,206 credit for the 4d cycle โ $9,045/mo projected Survival (stays โค $37.50) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays โค $38.20) 75% EV / mo +$1,530 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,839/mo median; plan ~$1,930/mo after 68% keep · $18,165 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.5-4.6], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 48% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$429 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $48 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.28/sh now โ $0.91 mid-life (likely $1.12โ$1.81) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 1,451 simulated challenges: the $38 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $38 (overshoots $0.97). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $37.50 is $21 below CC-SS $58.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.67 collected) or spot โฅ $38.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $38)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $58.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,310 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,734 โ CC assignment net of premium (18 ร $37.50): -$36,181 โ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 ร $57): -$250 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,007 (+$15,303 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,077 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,930, the opportunity cost of earning $9,045/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $43.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,018, position total $-42,963 (+$7,347 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 18 × $50 | 23 Oct | 11d | 38.1% | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | +1pp | $108 | $295 | -$4,222 | $14,779 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 ร $50 38.1% OTM over spot $36.20 23 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.07 mid) = $108 credit for the 11d cycle โ $295/mo projected Survival (stays โค $50) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays โค $50.07) 98% EV / mo +$189 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-58/mo median; plan ~$-39/mo after 68% keep · $-395 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.2-4.6], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,959 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $56 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.19/sh now โ $2.26 mid-life โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $8 below CC-SS $58.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot โฅ $50.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $58.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,310 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,734 โ CC assignment net of premium (18 ร $50): -$14,779 โ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 ร $57): -$250 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,605 (+$36,705 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,077 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,528, the opportunity cost of earning $295/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $43.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-33,945 (+$16,365 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | ๐ก safe yield | 20 × $43.50 | 23 Oct | 11d | 20.2% | 91%hist 95% | 19%hist 14% | +2pp | $440 | $1,200 | -$3,316 | $29,101 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 ร $43.50 20.2% OTM over spot $36.20 23 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.25 mid) = $440 credit for the 11d cycle โ $1,200/mo projected Survival (stays โค $43.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays โค $43.75) 92% EV / mo +$387 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 43% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $465/mo median; plan ~$316/mo after 68% keep · $3,028 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.4-4.9], measured ONLY among the 43% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,107 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $48 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.51/sh now โ $1.77 mid-life (likely $1.38โ$2.31) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 289 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $44 (overshoots $0.99). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43.50 is $15 below CC-SS $58.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot โฅ $43.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $58.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,310 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,734 โ CC assignment net of premium (20 ร $43.50): -$29,101 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,677 (+$22,633 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,077 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,600, the opportunity cost of earning $1,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $43.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-33,949 (+$16,361 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $40 | 23 Oct | 11d | 10.5% | 79%hist 82% | 43%hist 42% | +6pp | $1,140 | $3,109 | -$1,407 | $33,574 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 ร $40 10.5% OTM over spot $36.20 23 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.64 mid) = $1,140 credit for the 11d cycle โ $3,109/mo projected Survival (stays โค $40) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays โค $40.63) 83% EV / mo +$855 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 45% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,209/mo median; plan ~$822/mo after 68% keep · $8,364 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [1.5-5.3], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,778 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $47 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.17/sh now โ $1.54 mid-life (likely $1.50โ$2.27) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 990 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $41 (overshoots $0.86). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40 is $18 below CC-SS $58.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot โฅ $40.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $58.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,310 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,734 โ CC assignment net of premium (19 ร $40): -$33,574 โ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 ร $57): -$125 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,275 (+$18,035 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,077 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,198, the opportunity cost of earning $3,109/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $43.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,902, position total $-38,849 (+$11,461 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | ๐ฏ 50% normal | 18 × $38.50 | 23 Oct | 11d | 6.4% | 70%hist 82% | 62%hist 57% | +7pp | $1,656 | $4,516 | — | $33,931 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 ร $38.50 6.4% OTM over spot $36.20 23 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.96 mid) = $1,656 credit for the 11d cycle โ $4,516/mo projected Survival (stays โค $38.50) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays โค $39.46) 77% EV / mo +$834 ๐ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,460/mo median; plan ~$993/mo after 68% keep · $10,057 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.7-5.4], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 50% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$934 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $48 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.03/sh now โ $1.44 mid-life (likely $1.69โ$2.37) โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours ๐ Across 1,507 simulated challenges: the $38 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $39 (overshoots $0.88). The [P25โP75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $38.50 is $20 below CC-SS $58.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.92 collected) or spot โฅ $39.46 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $38)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $58.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,310 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,734 โ CC assignment net of premium (18 ร $38.50): -$33,931 โ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 ร $57): -$250 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,757 (+$17,553 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,077 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,680, the opportunity cost of earning $4,516/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $43.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,768, position total $-40,713 (+$9,597 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $36 | 23 Oct | 11d | -0.6% | 51%hist 67% | 100%hist 90% | · | $3,312 | $9,033 | +$4,516 | $36,775 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 ร $36 0.6% ITM over spot $36.20 23 Oct 2026 (11d, $1.89 mid) = $3,312 credit for the 11d cycle โ $9,033/mo projected Survival (stays โค $36) 51% Breach risk 49% POP (stays โค $37.88) 66% EV / mo +$943 ๐ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,000 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026) $45 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.82/sh now โ $1.28 mid-life โ โ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays โค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $36 is $22 below CC-SS $58.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.46/sh (~25% of the $1.84 collected) or spot โฅ $37.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โ $36)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic ยท fortress delta 1.17 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ CC-SS $58.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,310 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,734 โ CC assignment net of premium (18 ร $36): -$36,775 โ Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 ร $57): -$250 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,601 (+$14,709 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,077 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,524, the opportunity cost of earning $9,033/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (โ $43.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,612, position total $-43,557 (+$6,753 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary ๐ฏ is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.172 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$51,734 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,077
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $39 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.37 | 17/20 | $629 | $4,718 | $4,442 | 81%hist 86% | 39%hist 32% | 84% | +$1,595 | -$32,131 | 535.5% | 3.6mo | $-31,082 (vs do-nothing $-30,005) |
| $38.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.43 | 14/20 | $602 | $4,515 | $4,255 | 77%hist 82% | 47%hist 42% | 81% | +$1,114 | -$27,077 | 451.3% | 3.0mo | $-26,403 (vs do-nothing $-25,326) |
| $38 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.56 | 11/20 | $616 | $4,620 | $4,377 | 73%hist 82% | 56%hist 45% | 78% | +$1,105 | -$21,682 | 361.4% | 2.4mo | $-21,383 (vs do-nothing $-20,306) |
| $38.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.92 | 18/20 | $1,656 | $4,516 | $4,235 | 70%hist 82% | 62%hist 57% | 77% | +$834 | -$33,931 | 565.5% | 3.8mo | $-32,757 (vs do-nothing $-31,680) |
| $38.50 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.38 | 20/20 | $2,760 | $4,600 | $4,308 | 68%hist 64% | 69%hist 57% | 75% | +$855 | -$36,781 | 613.0% | 4.1mo | $-35,357 (vs do-nothing $-34,280) |
| $37.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.67 | 9/20 | $603 | $4,523 | $4,290 | 67%hist 64% | 67%hist 57% | 75% | +$765 | -$18,091 | 301.5% | 2.0mo | $-18,042 (vs do-nothing $-16,965) |
| $38 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.06 | 16/20 | $1,696 | $4,625 | $4,355 | 67%hist 64% | 69%hist 57% | 75% | +$816 | -$30,737 | 512.3% | 3.4mo | $-29,813 (vs do-nothing $-28,736) |
| $38 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.53 | 18/20 | $2,754 | $4,590 | $4,309 | 65%hist 64% | 75%hist 69% | 74% | +$760 | -$33,733 | 562.2% | 3.8mo | $-32,559 (vs do-nothing $-31,482) |
| $37.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.22 | 14/20 | $1,708 | $4,658 | $4,399 | 63%hist 64% | 77%hist 69% | 73% | +$758 | -$27,371 | 456.2% | 3.1mo | $-26,697 (vs do-nothing $-25,620) |
| $38 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $2.12 | 18/20 | $3,816 | $4,579 | $4,298 | 63%hist 64% | 79%hist 69% | 73% | +$717 | -$32,671 | 544.5% | 3.7mo | $-31,497 (vs do-nothing $-30,420) |
| $37.50 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.71 | 16/20 | $2,736 | $4,560 | $4,290 | 62%hist 64% | 81%hist 79% | 72% | +$700 | -$30,497 | 508.3% | 3.4mo | $-29,573 (vs do-nothing $-28,496) |
| $37 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.84 | 8/20 | $672 | $5,040 | $4,813 | 62%hist 64% | 79%hist 69% | 71% | +$719 | -$16,345 | 272.4% | 1.8mo | $-16,421 (vs do-nothing $-15,344) |
| $37 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.40 | 12/20 | $1,680 | $4,582 | $4,333 | 59%hist 67% | 85%hist 79% | 71% | +$638 | -$23,845 | 397.4% | 2.7mo | $-23,421 (vs do-nothing $-22,344) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $37 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.86 | 15/20 | $2,790 | $4,650 | $4,385 | 59%hist 67% | 88%hist 79% | 70% | +$556 | -$29,116 | 485.3% | 3.3mo | $-28,317 (vs do-nothing $-27,240) |
| $37 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $2.37 | 16/20 | $3,792 | $4,550 | $4,280 | 58%hist 67% | 90%hist 90% | 70% | +$402 | -$30,241 | 504.0% | 3.4mo | $-29,317 (vs do-nothing $-28,240) |
| $36.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.03 | 6/20 | $618 | $4,635 | $4,419 | 56%hist 67% | 92%hist 90% | 68% | +$497 | -$12,444 | 207.4% | 1.4mo | $-12,771 (vs do-nothing $-11,694) |
| $36.50 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $2.10 | 13/20 | $2,730 | $4,550 | $4,296 | 55%hist 67% | 96%hist 90% | 69% | +$547 | -$25,572 | 426.2% | 2.9mo | $-25,023 (vs do-nothing $-23,946) |
| $36.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.60 | 11/20 | $1,760 | $4,800 | $4,557 | 55%hist 67% | 94%hist 90% | 68% | +$559 | -$22,188 | 369.8% | 2.5mo | $-21,889 (vs do-nothing $-20,812) |
| $36 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $2.90 | 13/20 | $3,770 | $4,524 | $4,270 | 53%hist 67% | 100%hist 90% | 68% | +$473 | -$25,182 | 419.7% | 2.8mo | $-24,633 (vs do-nothing $-23,556) |
| $36 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $2.32 | 12/20 | $2,784 | $4,640 | $4,391 | 52%hist 67% | 100%hist 90% | 67% | +$484 | -$23,941 | 399.0% | 2.7mo | $-23,517 (vs do-nothing $-22,440) |
| $36 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $1.84 | 9/20 | $1,656 | $4,516 | $4,284 | 51%hist 67% | 100%hist 90% | 66% | +$471 | -$18,388 | 306.5% | 2.1mo | $-18,339 (vs do-nothing $-17,262) |
| $36 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $1.26 | 5/20 | $630 | $4,725 | $4,515 | 49% | 100%hist 90% | 65% | +$387 | -$10,505 | 175.1% | 1.2mo | $-10,957 (vs do-nothing $-9,880) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS | Why not eligible |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $65 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $55 | $-238 | 99+%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 100% | +$40 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,444 (vs do-nothing +$2,521) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $55 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $150 | $-142 | 99+%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 100% | +$119 | -$6,521 | 108.7% | 0.7mo | $-5,097 (vs do-nothing $-4,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $54 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $150 | $-142 | 99+%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 100% | +$114 | -$8,521 | 142.0% | 1.0mo | $-7,097 (vs do-nothing $-6,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $53 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $150 | $-142 | 99%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 99% | +$109 | -$10,521 | 175.4% | 1.2mo | $-9,097 (vs do-nothing $-8,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $60 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.02 | 20/20 | $40 | $109 | $-183 | 99%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 99% | +$83 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,464 (vs do-nothing +$2,541) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $52 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $150 | $-142 | 99%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 99% | +$103 | -$12,521 | 208.7% | 1.4mo | $-11,097 (vs do-nothing $-10,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $65 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.03 | 20/20 | $60 | $100 | $-192 | 99%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 99% | +$74 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,484 (vs do-nothing +$2,561) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $51 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $150 | $-142 | 99%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 99% | +$97 | -$14,521 | 242.0% | 1.6mo | $-13,097 (vs do-nothing $-12,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $58 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $55 | $-238 | 99%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 99% | +$19 | -$521 | 8.7% | 0.1mo | $903 (vs do-nothing +$1,980) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $150 | $-142 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$91 | -$16,521 | 275.4% | 1.8mo | $-15,097 (vs do-nothing $-14,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $57 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.02 | 20/20 | $40 | $109 | $-183 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$67 | -$2,501 | 41.7% | 0.3mo | $-1,077 (vs do-nothing +$0) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $56 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $55 | $-238 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$4 | -$4,521 | 75.4% | 0.5mo | $-3,097 (vs do-nothing $-2,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $65 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.06 | 20/20 | $120 | $144 | $-148 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$104 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,544 (vs do-nothing +$2,621) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $60 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.05 | 20/20 | $100 | $167 | $-126 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$121 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,524 (vs do-nothing +$2,601) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $55 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.04 | 20/20 | $80 | $218 | $-74 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$160 | -$6,461 | 107.7% | 0.7mo | $-5,037 (vs do-nothing $-3,960) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $49 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.02 | 20/20 | $40 | $300 | $8 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$197 | -$18,501 | 308.4% | 2.1mo | $-17,077 (vs do-nothing $-16,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $54 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.03 | 20/20 | $60 | $164 | $-129 | 99%hist 95% | 2%hist 4% | 99% | +$100 | -$8,481 | 141.4% | 0.9mo | $-7,057 (vs do-nothing $-5,980) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $58 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.04 | 20/20 | $80 | $133 | $-159 | 99%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 99% | +$74 | -$461 | 7.7% | 0.1mo | $963 (vs do-nothing +$2,040) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $53 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $55 | $-238 | 99%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 99% | $-14 | -$10,521 | 175.4% | 1.2mo | $-9,097 (vs do-nothing $-8,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $57 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.04 | 20/20 | $80 | $133 | $-159 | 99%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 99% | +$71 | -$2,461 | 41.0% | 0.3mo | $-1,037 (vs do-nothing +$40) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $52 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.04 | 20/20 | $80 | $218 | $-74 | 99%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 99% | +$140 | -$12,461 | 207.7% | 1.4mo | $-11,037 (vs do-nothing $-9,960) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $48 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $150 | $-142 | 98%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 98% | $-9 | -$20,521 | 342.0% | 2.3mo | $-19,097 (vs do-nothing $-18,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $46.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.02 | 20/20 | $40 | $300 | $8 | 98%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 98% | +$158 | -$23,501 | 391.7% | 2.6mo | $-22,077 (vs do-nothing $-21,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $56 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.07 | 20/20 | $140 | $233 | $-59 | 98%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 98% | +$161 | -$4,401 | 73.4% | 0.5mo | $-2,977 (vs do-nothing $-1,900) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $49.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $150 | $-142 | 98%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 98% | $-56 | -$17,521 | 292.0% | 2.0mo | $-16,097 (vs do-nothing $-15,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $47 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.02 | 20/20 | $40 | $300 | $8 | 98%hist 95% | 3%hist 4% | 98% | +$133 | -$22,501 | 375.0% | 2.5mo | $-21,077 (vs do-nothing $-20,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $51 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $55 | $-238 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | $-39 | -$14,521 | 242.0% | 1.6mo | $-13,097 (vs do-nothing $-12,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $60 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.07 | 20/20 | $140 | $168 | $-124 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | +$88 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $1,564 (vs do-nothing +$2,641) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $55 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.08 | 20/20 | $160 | $267 | $-26 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | +$181 | -$6,381 | 106.4% | 0.7mo | $-4,957 (vs do-nothing $-3,880) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $48.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.02 | 20/20 | $40 | $300 | $8 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | +$51 | -$19,501 | 325.0% | 2.2mo | $-18,077 (vs do-nothing $-17,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $47.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $150 | $-142 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | $-77 | -$21,521 | 358.7% | 2.4mo | $-20,097 (vs do-nothing $-19,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.06 | 20/20 | $120 | $327 | $35 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | +$210 | -$16,421 | 273.7% | 1.8mo | $-14,997 (vs do-nothing $-13,920) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $46 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.03 | 20/20 | $60 | $450 | $158 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | +$238 | -$24,481 | 408.0% | 2.7mo | $-23,057 (vs do-nothing $-21,980) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $54 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.09 | 20/20 | $180 | $300 | $8 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | +$199 | -$8,361 | 139.4% | 0.9mo | $-6,937 (vs do-nothing $-5,860) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $45.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 20/20 | $20 | $150 | $-142 | 98%hist 95% | 4%hist 4% | 98% | $-53 | -$25,521 | 425.4% | 2.9mo | $-24,097 (vs do-nothing $-23,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $58 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.13 | 20/20 | $260 | $312 | $20 | 98%hist 95% | 5%hist 4% | 98% | +$202 | -$281 | 4.7% | 0.0mo | $1,143 (vs do-nothing +$2,220) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $45 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.04 | 20/20 | $80 | $600 | $308 | 98%hist 95% | 5%hist 4% | 98% | +$365 | -$26,461 | 441.0% | 3.0mo | $-25,037 (vs do-nothing $-23,960) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $53 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.08 | 20/20 | $160 | $267 | $-26 | 98%hist 95% | 5%hist 4% | 98% | +$146 | -$10,381 | 173.0% | 1.2mo | $-8,957 (vs do-nothing $-7,880) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $49 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.06 | 20/20 | $120 | $327 | $35 | 97%hist 95% | 5%hist 4% | 98% | +$178 | -$18,421 | 307.0% | 2.1mo | $-16,997 (vs do-nothing $-15,920) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $57 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.12 | 20/20 | $240 | $288 | $-4 | 97%hist 95% | 5%hist 4% | 98% | +$159 | -$2,301 | 38.4% | 0.3mo | $-877 (vs do-nothing +$200) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $52 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.09 | 20/20 | $180 | $300 | $8 | 97%hist 95% | 6%hist 4% | 97% | +$155 | -$12,361 | 206.0% | 1.4mo | $-10,937 (vs do-nothing $-9,860) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $56 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.15 | 20/20 | $300 | $360 | $68 | 97%hist 95% | 6%hist 4% | 97% | +$208 | -$4,241 | 70.7% | 0.5mo | $-2,817 (vs do-nothing $-1,740) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $44.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.05 | 20/20 | $100 | $750 | $458 | 97%hist 95% | 6%hist 4% | 97% | +$420 | -$27,441 | 457.4% | 3.1mo | $-26,017 (vs do-nothing $-24,940) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $48 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.09 | 20/20 | $180 | $491 | $199 | 97%hist 95% | 6%hist 4% | 97% | +$300 | -$20,361 | 339.4% | 2.3mo | $-18,937 (vs do-nothing $-17,860) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $51 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.12 | 20/20 | $240 | $400 | $108 | 97%hist 95% | 7%hist 4% | 97% | +$224 | -$14,301 | 238.4% | 1.6mo | $-12,877 (vs do-nothing $-11,800) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $55 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.18 | 20/20 | $360 | $432 | $140 | 97%hist 95% | 7%hist 4% | 97% | +$253 | -$6,181 | 103.0% | 0.7mo | $-4,757 (vs do-nothing $-3,680) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $44 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.05 | 20/20 | $100 | $750 | $458 | 97%hist 95% | 7%hist 4% | 97% | +$387 | -$28,441 | 474.0% | 3.2mo | $-27,017 (vs do-nothing $-25,940) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $47.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.07 | 20/20 | $140 | $382 | $90 | 97%hist 95% | 7%hist 4% | 97% | +$165 | -$21,401 | 356.7% | 2.4mo | $-19,977 (vs do-nothing $-18,900) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $43.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.06 | 20/20 | $120 | $900 | $608 | 96%hist 95% | 8%hist 4% | 96% | +$496 | -$29,421 | 490.4% | 3.3mo | $-27,997 (vs do-nothing $-26,920) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $47 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.10 | 20/20 | $200 | $545 | $253 | 96%hist 95% | 8%hist 4% | 96% | +$299 | -$22,341 | 372.4% | 2.5mo | $-20,917 (vs do-nothing $-19,840) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $54 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.20 | 20/20 | $400 | $480 | $188 | 96%hist 95% | 8%hist 4% | 96% | +$268 | -$8,141 | 135.7% | 0.9mo | $-6,717 (vs do-nothing $-5,640) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $50 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.15 | 20/20 | $300 | $500 | $208 | 96%hist 95% | 8%hist 4% | 96% | +$285 | -$16,241 | 270.7% | 1.8mo | $-14,817 (vs do-nothing $-13,740) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $46.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.11 | 20/20 | $220 | $600 | $308 | 96%hist 95% | 9%hist 4% | 96% | +$320 | -$23,321 | 388.7% | 2.6mo | $-21,897 (vs do-nothing $-20,820) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $53 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.22 | 20/20 | $440 | $528 | $236 | 96%hist 95% | 9%hist 4% | 96% | +$277 | -$10,101 | 168.4% | 1.1mo | $-8,677 (vs do-nothing $-7,600) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $49 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.17 | 20/20 | $340 | $567 | $274 | 95%hist 95% | 9%hist 4% | 96% | +$301 | -$18,201 | 303.4% | 2.0mo | $-16,777 (vs do-nothing $-15,700) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $43 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.07 | 20/20 | $140 | $1,050 | $758 | 95%hist 95% | 9%hist 4% | 96% | +$497 | -$30,401 | 506.7% | 3.4mo | $-28,977 (vs do-nothing $-27,900) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $46 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.12 | 20/20 | $240 | $655 | $362 | 95%hist 95% | 10%hist 4% | 96% | +$334 | -$24,301 | 405.0% | 2.7mo | $-22,877 (vs do-nothing $-21,800) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $52 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.25 | 20/20 | $500 | $600 | $308 | 95%hist 95% | 10%hist 14% | 95% | +$301 | -$12,041 | 200.7% | 1.3mo | $-10,617 (vs do-nothing $-9,540) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $42.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.08 | 20/20 | $160 | $1,200 | $908 | 95%hist 95% | 11%hist 14% | 95% | +$517 | -$31,381 | 523.0% | 3.5mo | $-29,957 (vs do-nothing $-28,880) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $48 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | 20/20 | $400 | $667 | $374 | 95%hist 95% | 11%hist 14% | 95% | +$336 | -$20,141 | 335.7% | 2.3mo | $-18,717 (vs do-nothing $-17,640) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $51 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.29 | 20/20 | $580 | $696 | $404 | 94%hist 95% | 12%hist 14% | 95% | +$339 | -$13,961 | 232.7% | 1.6mo | $-12,537 (vs do-nothing $-11,460) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $45.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.13 | 20/20 | $260 | $709 | $417 | 94%hist 95% | 12%hist 14% | 94% | +$227 | -$25,281 | 421.4% | 2.8mo | $-23,857 (vs do-nothing $-22,780) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $45 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.15 | 20/20 | $300 | $818 | $526 | 94%hist 95% | 13%hist 14% | 94% | +$344 | -$26,241 | 437.4% | 2.9mo | $-24,817 (vs do-nothing $-23,740) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $42 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.10 | 20/20 | $200 | $1,500 | $1,208 | 94%hist 95% | 13%hist 14% | 94% | +$678 | -$32,341 | 539.0% | 3.6mo | $-30,917 (vs do-nothing $-29,840) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $47 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.24 | 20/20 | $480 | $800 | $508 | 94%hist 95% | 14%hist 14% | 94% | +$384 | -$22,061 | 367.7% | 2.5mo | $-20,637 (vs do-nothing $-19,560) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $50 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.35 | 20/20 | $700 | $840 | $548 | 93%hist 95% | 14%hist 14% | 94% | +$413 | -$15,841 | 264.0% | 1.8mo | $-14,417 (vs do-nothing $-13,340) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $44.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.17 | 20/20 | $340 | $927 | $635 | 93%hist 95% | 16%hist 14% | 93% | +$282 | -$27,201 | 453.4% | 3.0mo | $-25,777 (vs do-nothing $-24,700) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $49 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.39 | 20/20 | $780 | $936 | $644 | 92%hist 95% | 16%hist 14% | 93% | +$423 | -$17,761 | 296.0% | 2.0mo | $-16,337 (vs do-nothing $-15,260) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $41.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.12 | 20/20 | $240 | $1,800 | $1,508 | 92%hist 95% | 16%hist 14% | 93% | +$699 | -$33,301 | 555.0% | 3.7mo | $-31,877 (vs do-nothing $-30,800) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $46 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.28 | 20/20 | $560 | $933 | $641 | 92%hist 95% | 16%hist 14% | 93% | +$406 | -$23,981 | 399.7% | 2.7mo | $-22,557 (vs do-nothing $-21,480) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $44 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.20 | 20/20 | $400 | $1,091 | $799 | 92%hist 95% | 16%hist 14% | 93% | +$434 | -$28,141 | 469.0% | 3.1mo | $-26,717 (vs do-nothing $-25,640) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $48 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.45 | 20/20 | $900 | $1,080 | $788 | 91%hist 95% | 19%hist 14% | 92% | +$463 | -$19,641 | 327.4% | 2.2mo | $-18,217 (vs do-nothing $-17,140) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $41 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.15 | 20/20 | $300 | $2,250 | $1,958 | 91%hist 95% | 19%hist 14% | 92% | +$899 | -$34,241 | 570.7% | 3.8mo | $-32,817 (vs do-nothing $-31,740) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $43.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.22 | 20/20 | $440 | $1,200 | $908 | 91%hist 95% | 19%hist 14% | 92% | +$387 | -$29,101 | 485.0% | 3.3mo | $-27,677 (vs do-nothing $-26,600) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $45 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.35 | 20/20 | $700 | $1,167 | $874 | 91%hist 95% | 20%hist 14% | 91% | +$482 | -$25,841 | 430.7% | 2.9mo | $-24,417 (vs do-nothing $-23,340) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $47 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.51 | 20/20 | $1,020 | $1,224 | $932 | 90%hist 86% | 21%hist 24% | 91% | +$480 | -$21,521 | 358.7% | 2.4mo | $-20,097 (vs do-nothing $-19,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $43 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.25 | 20/20 | $500 | $1,364 | $1,071 | 90%hist 86% | 21%hist 24% | 91% | +$419 | -$30,041 | 500.7% | 3.4mo | $-28,617 (vs do-nothing $-27,540) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $40.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.18 | 20/20 | $360 | $2,700 | $2,408 | 89%hist 86% | 22%hist 24% | 90% | +$958 | -$35,181 | 586.4% | 3.9mo | $-33,757 (vs do-nothing $-32,680) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $42.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.29 | 20/20 | $580 | $1,582 | $1,290 | 89%hist 86% | 23%hist 24% | 90% | +$528 | -$30,961 | 516.0% | 3.5mo | $-29,537 (vs do-nothing $-28,460) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $44 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.42 | 20/20 | $840 | $1,400 | $1,108 | 89%hist 86% | 24%hist 24% | 90% | +$519 | -$27,701 | 461.7% | 3.1mo | $-26,277 (vs do-nothing $-25,200) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $46 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.58 | 20/20 | $1,160 | $1,392 | $1,100 | 88%hist 86% | 25%hist 24% | 89% | +$492 | -$23,381 | 389.7% | 2.6mo | $-21,957 (vs do-nothing $-20,880) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $42 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.34 | 20/20 | $680 | $1,855 | $1,562 | 88%hist 86% | 26%hist 24% | 89% | +$683 | -$31,861 | 531.0% | 3.6mo | $-30,437 (vs do-nothing $-29,360) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $40 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.23 | 20/20 | $460 | $3,450 | $3,158 | 87%hist 86% | 27%hist 24% | 88% | +$1,274 | -$36,081 | 601.4% | 4.0mo | $-34,657 (vs do-nothing $-33,580) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $45 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.67 | 20/20 | $1,340 | $1,608 | $1,316 | 86%hist 86% | 29%hist 24% | 88% | +$517 | -$25,201 | 420.0% | 2.8mo | $-23,777 (vs do-nothing $-22,700) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $43 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.52 | 20/20 | $1,040 | $1,733 | $1,441 | 86%hist 86% | 29%hist 24% | 88% | +$591 | -$29,501 | 491.7% | 3.3mo | $-28,077 (vs do-nothing $-27,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $41.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.39 | 20/20 | $780 | $2,127 | $1,835 | 86%hist 86% | 29%hist 24% | 87% | +$710 | -$32,761 | 546.0% | 3.7mo | $-31,337 (vs do-nothing $-30,260) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $39.50 | 4d | 16 Oct 2026 | $0.28 | 20/20 | $560 | $4,200 | $3,908 | 84%hist 86% | 32%hist 32% | 86% | +$1,433 | -$36,981 | 616.4% | 4.1mo | $-35,557 (vs do-nothing $-34,480) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $44 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.79 | 20/20 | $1,580 | $1,896 | $1,604 | 84%hist 86% | 33%hist 32% | 86% | +$571 | -$26,961 | 449.4% | 3.0mo | $-25,537 (vs do-nothing $-24,460) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $41 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.46 | 20/20 | $920 | $2,509 | $2,217 | 84%hist 86% | 33%hist 32% | 86% | +$844 | -$33,621 | 560.4% | 3.8mo | $-32,197 (vs do-nothing $-31,120) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $42 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.65 | 20/20 | $1,300 | $2,167 | $1,874 | 83%hist 86% | 35%hist 32% | 85% | +$680 | -$31,241 | 520.7% | 3.5mo | $-29,817 (vs do-nothing $-28,740) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $40.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.52 | 20/20 | $1,040 | $2,836 | $2,544 | 82%hist 86% | 37%hist 32% | 85% | +$878 | -$34,501 | 575.0% | 3.9mo | $-33,077 (vs do-nothing $-32,000) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $43 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.93 | 20/20 | $1,860 | $2,232 | $1,940 | 82%hist 86% | 39%hist 32% | 84% | +$620 | -$28,681 | 478.0% | 3.2mo | $-27,257 (vs do-nothing $-26,180) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $41 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.81 | 20/20 | $1,620 | $2,700 | $2,408 | 80%hist 82% | 43%hist 42% | 83% | +$760 | -$32,921 | 548.7% | 3.7mo | $-31,497 (vs do-nothing $-30,420) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $40 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.60 | 20/20 | $1,200 | $3,273 | $2,980 | 79%hist 82% | 43%hist 42% | 83% | +$900 | -$35,341 | 589.0% | 4.0mo | $-33,917 (vs do-nothing $-32,840) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $42 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.10 | 20/20 | $2,200 | $2,640 | $2,348 | 79%hist 82% | 45%hist 42% | 82% | +$678 | -$30,341 | 505.7% | 3.4mo | $-28,917 (vs do-nothing $-27,840) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $40.50 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.89 | 20/20 | $1,780 | $2,967 | $2,674 | 77%hist 82% | 47%hist 42% | 81% | +$751 | -$33,761 | 562.7% | 3.8mo | $-32,337 (vs do-nothing $-31,260) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $39.50 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.69 | 20/20 | $1,380 | $3,764 | $3,471 | 77%hist 82% | 48%hist 42% | 81% | +$914 | -$36,161 | 602.7% | 4.0mo | $-34,737 (vs do-nothing $-33,660) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $41 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.30 | 20/20 | $2,600 | $3,120 | $2,828 | 76%hist 82% | 52%hist 45% | 80% | +$730 | -$31,941 | 532.4% | 3.6mo | $-30,517 (vs do-nothing $-29,440) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $40 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.98 | 20/20 | $1,960 | $3,267 | $2,974 | 75%hist 82% | 52%hist 45% | 80% | +$737 | -$34,581 | 576.4% | 3.9mo | $-33,157 (vs do-nothing $-32,080) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $39 | 11d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.79 | 20/20 | $1,580 | $4,309 | $4,017 | 74%hist 82% | 55%hist 45% | 79% | +$825 | -$36,961 | 616.0% | 4.1mo | $-35,537 (vs do-nothing $-34,460) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $39.50 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.11 | 20/20 | $2,220 | $3,700 | $3,408 | 73%hist 82% | 57%hist 45% | 78% | +$813 | -$35,321 | 588.7% | 3.9mo | $-33,897 (vs do-nothing $-32,820) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $40 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.53 | 20/20 | $3,060 | $3,672 | $3,380 | 72%hist 82% | 60%hist 57% | 78% | +$761 | -$33,481 | 558.0% | 3.7mo | $-32,057 (vs do-nothing $-30,980) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $39 | 18d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.24 | 20/20 | $2,480 | $4,133 | $3,841 | 70%hist 82% | 63%hist 57% | 77% | +$843 | -$36,061 | 601.0% | 4.0mo | $-34,637 (vs do-nothing $-33,560) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $39 | 25d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.79 | 20/20 | $3,580 | $4,296 | $4,004 | 68%hist 64% | 69%hist 57% | 75% | +$757 | -$34,961 | 582.7% | 3.9mo | $-33,537 (vs do-nothing $-32,460) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.