20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $68.49 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $16,125/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,442/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-54,760 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 20 × $48.50 | 94% | $8,400 | $4,310 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 18 × $48 | 79% | $8,400 | $1,229 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 20 × $53 | 10 Jul | 2d | 26.7% | 99% | 2% | $100 | $1,500 | -$6,900 | $30,870 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $53 26.7% OTM over spot $41.83 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $100 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $53) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $53.10) 99% EV / mo +$1,353 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [0.9-4.1] median · 47% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-7,407 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,058 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $64 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.94/sh now → $2.08 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $53 is $15 below CC-SS $68.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $53.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $53)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $68.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,760 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,760 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $53): -$30,870 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,870 (+$23,890 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,290 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,580, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 20 × $49.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 18.4% | 96% | 9% | $360 | $5,400 | -$3,000 | $37,610 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $49.50 18.4% OTM over spot $41.83 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.23 mid) = $360 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $49.73) 96% EV / mo +$4,355 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.0-4.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~3.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,002 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,415 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $61 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.67/sh now → $1.89 mid-life (likely $1.89–$4.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 122 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $51 (overshoots $1.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49.50 is $19 below CC-SS $68.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $49.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $68.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,760 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,760 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $49.50): -$37,610 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,610 (+$17,150 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,290 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,320, the opportunity cost of earning $5,400/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $48.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 16.0% | 94% | 7% | $560 | $8,400 | — | $39,410 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48.50 16.0% OTM over spot $41.83 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.32 mid) = $560 credit for the 2d cycle → $8,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $48.81) 95% EV / mo +$6,559 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.1-3.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~5.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,239 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,109 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $60 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.59/sh now → $1.83 mid-life (likely $1.92–$3.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 223 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $50 (overshoots $1.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $20 below CC-SS $68.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $48.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $68.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,760 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,760 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48.50): -$39,410 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,410 (+$15,350 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,290 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,120, the opportunity cost of earning $8,400/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $47.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 13.6% | 91% | 19% | $780 | $11,700 | +$3,300 | $41,190 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $47.50 13.6% OTM over spot $41.83 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.43 mid) = $780 credit for the 2d cycle → $11,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $47.93) 92% EV / mo +$8,492 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [0.9-4.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~8.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $20,904 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,783 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $59 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.52/sh now → $1.78 mid-life (likely $1.91–$3.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 323 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $49 (overshoots $1.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47.50 is $21 below CC-SS $68.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $47.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $68.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,760 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,760 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $47.50): -$41,190 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,190 (+$13,570 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,290 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,900, the opportunity cost of earning $11,700/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $46.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 11.2% | 87% | 27% | $1,080 | $16,200 | +$7,800 | $42,890 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $46.50 11.2% OTM over spot $41.83 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.58 mid) = $1,080 credit for the 2d cycle → $16,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $47.09) 89% EV / mo +$10,716 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-3.3] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~11.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $24,541 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,379 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $60 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.45/sh now → $1.73 mid-life (likely $1.93–$3.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 524 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $48 (overshoots $1.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46.50 is $22 below CC-SS $68.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.54 collected) or spot ≥ $47.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $68.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,760 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,760 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $46.50): -$42,890 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,890 (+$11,870 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,290 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,600, the opportunity cost of earning $16,200/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $58 | 17 Jul | 9d | 38.7% | 96% | 9% | $456 | $1,520 | -$6,880 | $19,466 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $58 38.7% OTM over spot $41.83 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.29 mid) = $456 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $58) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $58.29) 96% EV / mo +$954 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.2-4.3] median · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~1.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,520 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,530 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $62 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.94/sh now → $4.20 mid-life (likely $2.98–$5.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 207 simulated challenges: the $58 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $60 (overshoots $2.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $58 is $10 below CC-SS $68.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $58.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $58)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $68.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,760 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,760 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $58): -$19,466 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$515 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,980 (+$34,780 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,290 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,690, the opportunity cost of earning $1,520/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $53 | 17 Jul | 9d | 26.7% | 90% | 21% | $1,220 | $4,067 | -$4,333 | $29,750 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $53 26.7% OTM over spot $41.83 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.65 mid) = $1,220 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,067/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $53) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $53.65) 91% EV / mo +$2,168 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-3.6] median · 47% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~3.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,658 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,159 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $58 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.21/sh now → $3.69 mid-life (likely $3.20–$5.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 509 simulated challenges: the $53 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $55 (overshoots $2.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $53 is $15 below CC-SS $68.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.61 collected) or spot ≥ $53.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $53)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $68.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,760 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,760 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $53): -$29,750 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,750 (+$25,010 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,290 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,460, the opportunity cost of earning $4,067/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $51 | 17 Jul | 9d | 21.9% | 86% | 29% | $1,615 | $5,383 | -$3,017 | $31,607 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $51 21.9% OTM over spot $41.83 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.91 mid) = $1,615 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,383/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $51.91) 88% EV / mo +$2,510 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-3.6] median · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~4.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,884 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,020 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $57 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.93/sh now → $3.49 mid-life (likely $3.37–$5.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 701 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $53 (overshoots $2.07). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $17 below CC-SS $68.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $51.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $68.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,760 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,760 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $51): -$31,607 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$515 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,121 (+$22,639 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,290 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,831, the opportunity cost of earning $5,383/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $48 | 17 Jul | 9d | 14.8% | 79% | 37% | $2,520 | $8,400 | — | $34,353 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $48 14.8% OTM over spot $41.83 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.46 mid) = $2,520 credit for the 9d cycle → $8,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $49.46) 83% EV / mo +$3,065 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-4.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~7.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,901 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,248 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $56 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.53/sh now → $3.20 mid-life (likely $3.48–$5.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,119 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $50 (overshoots $1.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $20 below CC-SS $68.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.40 collected) or spot ≥ $49.46 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $68.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,760 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,760 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $48): -$34,353 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $63): -$1,029 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,382 (+$19,378 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,290 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,092, the opportunity cost of earning $8,400/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $44 | 17 Jul | 9d | 5.2% | 64% | 78% | $5,080 | $16,933 | +$8,533 | $43,890 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $44 5.2% OTM over spot $41.83 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $2.63 mid) = $5,080 credit for the 9d cycle → $16,933/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $46.63) 74% EV / mo +$3,607 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [1.0-3.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~15.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,504 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$593 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $59 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.01/sh now → $2.84 mid-life (likely $3.77–$5.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,879 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $46 (overshoots $1.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $24 below CC-SS $68.49: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.64/sh (~25% of the $2.54 collected) or spot ≥ $46.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $68.49, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,760 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,760 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $44): -$43,890 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,890 (+$10,870 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,290 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,600, the opportunity cost of earning $16,933/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 36 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.027 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$54,760 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-10,290
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $48.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.28 | 20/20 | $8,400 | $6,958 | 94% | 95% | +$6,559 | -$39,410 | 287.7% | $-39,410 (vs do-nothing $-29,120) |
| $48 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.33 | 17/20 | $8,415 | $7,165 | 92% | 93% | +$6,345 | -$34,264 | 250.1% | $-35,807 (vs do-nothing $-25,517) |
| $47.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 14/20 | $8,190 | $7,131 | 91% | 92% | +$5,944 | -$28,833 | 210.5% | $-31,920 (vs do-nothing $-21,630) |
| $47 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 12/20 | $8,280 | $7,348 | 89% | 91% | +$5,756 | -$25,230 | 184.2% | $-29,346 (vs do-nothing $-19,056) |
| $46.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 10/20 | $8,100 | $7,296 | 87% | 89% | +$5,358 | -$21,445 | 156.5% | $-26,590 (vs do-nothing $-16,300) |
| $46 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 9/20 | $8,640 | $7,900 | 84% | 88% | +$5,443 | -$19,661 | 143.5% | $-25,320 (vs do-nothing $-15,030) |
| $45.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 8/20 | $8,880 | $8,203 | 82% | 86% | +$5,228 | -$17,796 | 129.9% | $-23,970 (vs do-nothing $-13,680) |
| $48 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.40 | 18/20 | $8,400 | $7,086 | 79% | 83% | +$3,065 | -$34,353 | 250.8% | $-35,382 (vs do-nothing $-25,092) |
| $45 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 7/20 | $9,030 | $8,417 | 78% | 84% | +$4,956 | -$15,838 | 115.6% | $-22,526 (vs do-nothing $-12,236) |
| $47 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.64 | 15/20 | $8,200 | $7,077 | 75% | 81% | +$2,696 | -$29,768 | 217.3% | $-32,340 (vs do-nothing $-22,050) |
| $44.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 6/20 | $9,000 | $8,451 | 75% | 82% | +$4,589 | -$13,791 | 100.7% | $-20,994 (vs do-nothing $-10,704) |
| $48 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.22 | 20/20 | $8,325 | $6,883 | 74% | 80% | +$2,223 | -$36,530 | 266.6% | $-36,530 (vs do-nothing $-26,240) |
| $47 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.48 | 18/20 | $8,370 | $7,056 | 72% | 78% | +$2,030 | -$34,209 | 249.7% | $-35,238 (vs do-nothing $-24,948) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.91 | 13/20 | $8,277 | $7,281 | 72% | 78% | +$2,411 | -$26,748 | 195.2% | $-30,349 (vs do-nothing $-20,059) |
| $44 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.15 | 5/20 | $8,625 | $8,140 | 71% | 79% | +$4,026 | -$11,668 | 85.2% | $-19,385 (vs do-nothing $-9,095) |
| $46 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.85 | 16/20 | $8,550 | $7,363 | 69% | 77% | +$2,062 | -$31,416 | 229.3% | $-33,474 (vs do-nothing $-23,184) |
| $45 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.25 | 11/20 | $8,250 | $7,382 | 68% | 76% | +$2,194 | -$23,359 | 170.5% | $-27,989 (vs do-nothing $-17,699) |
| $43.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.32 | 5/20 | $9,900 | $9,415 | 67% | 77% | +$4,206 | -$11,833 | 86.4% | $-19,550 (vs do-nothing $-9,260) |
| $45 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 14/20 | $8,138 | $7,078 | 66% | 75% | +$1,623 | -$28,539 | 208.3% | $-31,626 (vs do-nothing $-21,336) |
| $44.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 14/20 | $8,531 | $7,472 | 64% | 74% | +$1,562 | -$29,029 | 211.9% | $-32,116 (vs do-nothing $-21,826) |
| $44 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.54 | 10/20 | $8,467 | $7,662 | 64% | 74% | +$1,804 | -$21,945 | 160.2% | $-27,090 (vs do-nothing $-16,800) |
| $43 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.50 | 4/20 | $9,000 | $8,578 | 63% | 75% | +$3,418 | -$9,594 | 70.0% | $-17,826 (vs do-nothing $-7,536) |
| $44 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 13/20 | $8,409 | $7,414 | 63% | 73% | +$1,491 | -$27,346 | 199.6% | $-30,947 (vs do-nothing $-20,657) |
| $43.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 12/20 | $8,212 | $7,281 | 61% | 73% | +$1,391 | -$25,602 | 186.9% | $-29,718 (vs do-nothing $-19,428) |
| $43 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 9/20 | $9,000 | $8,260 | 59% | 72% | +$1,804 | -$20,237 | 147.7% | $-25,896 (vs do-nothing $-15,606) |
| $43 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 12/20 | $8,662 | $7,731 | 59% | 72% | +$1,383 | -$25,962 | 189.5% | $-30,078 (vs do-nothing $-19,788) |
| $42.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.71 | 4/20 | $10,260 | $9,838 | 58% | 73% | +$3,494 | -$9,710 | 70.9% | $-17,942 (vs do-nothing $-7,652) |
| $42.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 11/20 | $8,456 | $7,588 | 58% | 71% | +$1,342 | -$24,074 | 175.7% | $-28,704 (vs do-nothing $-18,414) |
| $42 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 10/20 | $8,062 | $7,258 | 56% | 70% | +$1,174 | -$22,185 | 161.9% | $-27,330 (vs do-nothing $-17,040) |
| $42 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 8/20 | $9,200 | $8,523 | 55% | 70% | +$1,592 | -$18,428 | 134.5% | $-24,602 (vs do-nothing $-14,312) |
| $41.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 10/20 | $8,531 | $7,727 | 54% | 70% | +$1,200 | -$22,435 | 163.8% | $-27,580 (vs do-nothing $-17,290) |
| $42 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.91 | 3/20 | $8,595 | $8,237 | 54% | 71% | +$2,508 | -$7,373 | 53.8% | $-16,119 (vs do-nothing $-5,829) |
| $41 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 9/20 | $8,100 | $7,360 | 52% | 69% | +$1,086 | -$20,417 | 149.0% | $-26,076 (vs do-nothing $-15,786) |
| $41 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 7/20 | $9,217 | $8,604 | 50% | 68% | +$1,370 | -$16,475 | 120.3% | $-23,163 (vs do-nothing $-12,873) |
| $41.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.17 | 3/20 | $9,765 | $9,407 | 49% | 69% | +$2,541 | -$7,445 | 54.3% | $-16,191 (vs do-nothing $-5,901) |
| $41 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.45 | 3/20 | $11,025 | $10,667 | 44% | 67% | +$2,538 | -$7,511 | 54.8% | $-16,257 (vs do-nothing $-5,967) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.