20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $68.24 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $15,563/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,442/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-56,610 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 20 × $47 | 94% | $8,100 | $4,220 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 19 × $47 | 80% | $7,853 | $1,127 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 20 × $53 | 10 Jul | 2d | 31.0% | 99% | 1% | $100 | $1,500 | -$6,600 | $30,374 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $53 31.0% OTM over spot $40.46 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.07 mid) = $100 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $53) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $53.06) 99% EV / mo +$1,416 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-3.5] median · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-11,118 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,121 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $66 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.98/sh now → $2.11 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $53 is $15 below CC-SS $68.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $53.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $53)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $68.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,610 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$56,610 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $53): -$30,374 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,374 (+$26,236 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,874 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,500, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 18 × $48 | 10 Jul | 2d | 18.6% | 96% | 9% | $360 | $5,400 | -$2,700 | $36,067 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $48 18.6% OTM over spot $40.46 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.21 mid) = $360 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $48.20) 96% EV / mo +$4,469 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-4.4] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~3.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,109 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,940 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $60 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.59/sh now → $1.83 mid-life (likely $1.92–$3.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 109 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $50 (overshoots $1.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $20 below CC-SS $68.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $48.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $68.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,610 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$56,610 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $48): -$36,067 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $63): -$987 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,054 (+$19,556 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,874 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,180, the opportunity cost of earning $5,400/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $47 | 10 Jul | 2d | 16.2% | 94% | 7% | $540 | $8,100 | — | $41,934 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $47 16.2% OTM over spot $40.46 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.29 mid) = $540 credit for the 2d cycle → $8,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $47.28) 94% EV / mo +$6,263 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~5.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,428 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,019 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $59 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.52/sh now → $1.78 mid-life (likely $1.69–$3.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 218 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $49 (overshoots $1.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $21 below CC-SS $68.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $47.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $68.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,610 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$56,610 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $47): -$41,934 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,934 (+$14,676 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,874 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,060, the opportunity cost of earning $8,100/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $46 | 10 Jul | 2d | 13.7% | 91% | 19% | $760 | $11,400 | +$3,300 | $43,714 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $46 13.7% OTM over spot $40.46 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.41 mid) = $760 credit for the 2d cycle → $11,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $46.41) 92% EV / mo +$8,230 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.6] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~8.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $21,611 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,693 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $59 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.44/sh now → $1.73 mid-life (likely $1.73–$3.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 320 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $48 (overshoots $1.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $22 below CC-SS $68.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $46.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $68.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,610 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$56,610 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $46): -$43,714 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,714 (+$12,896 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,874 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,840, the opportunity cost of earning $11,400/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $45 | 10 Jul | 2d | 11.2% | 87% | 27% | $1,060 | $15,900 | +$7,800 | $45,414 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $45 11.2% OTM over spot $40.46 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.55 mid) = $1,060 credit for the 2d cycle → $15,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $45.55) 89% EV / mo +$10,504 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-3.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~11.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $26,511 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,289 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $58 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.37/sh now → $1.67 mid-life (likely $1.80–$3.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 461 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $47 (overshoots $1.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $23 below CC-SS $68.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.53 collected) or spot ≥ $45.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $68.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,610 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$56,610 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $45): -$45,414 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,414 (+$11,196 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,874 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,540, the opportunity cost of earning $15,900/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 18 × $57 | 17 Jul | 9d | 40.9% | 96% | 9% | $450 | $1,500 | -$6,353 | $19,777 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $57 40.9% OTM over spot $40.46 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.27 mid) = $450 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $57) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $57.27) 96% EV / mo +$929 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-4.7] median · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~1.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,293 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,139 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $62 @ 75% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.96/sh now → $4.22 mid-life (likely $3.02–$5.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 173 simulated challenges: the $57 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $59 (overshoots $2.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $57 is $11 below CC-SS $68.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $57.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $57)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $68.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,610 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$56,610 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $57): -$19,777 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $63): -$987 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,764 (+$35,846 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,874 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,890, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $52 | 17 Jul | 9d | 28.5% | 91% | 20% | $1,040 | $3,467 | -$4,387 | $31,434 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $52 28.5% OTM over spot $40.46 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.57 mid) = $1,040 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,467/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $52.58) 92% EV / mo +$1,649 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-4.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~2.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,922 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,342 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $57 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.21/sh now → $3.69 mid-life (likely $3.08–$5.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 447 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $54 (overshoots $2.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $16 below CC-SS $68.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $52.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $68.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,610 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$56,610 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $52): -$31,434 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,434 (+$25,176 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,874 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,560, the opportunity cost of earning $3,467/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 20 × $50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 23.6% | 87% | 27% | $1,580 | $5,267 | -$2,587 | $34,894 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $50 23.6% OTM over spot $40.46 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.81 mid) = $1,580 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,267/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $50.81) 89% EV / mo +$2,459 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [1.1-4.7] median · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~4.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,470 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,398 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $56 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.93/sh now → $3.49 mid-life (likely $3.19–$5.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 592 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $52 (overshoots $1.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $18 below CC-SS $68.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.79 collected) or spot ≥ $50.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $68.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,610 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$56,610 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $50): -$34,894 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,894 (+$21,716 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,874 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,020, the opportunity cost of earning $5,267/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $47 | 17 Jul | 9d | 16.2% | 80% | 33% | $2,356 | $7,853 | — | $37,995 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $47 16.2% OTM over spot $40.46 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.31 mid) = $2,356 credit for the 9d cycle → $7,853/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $48.31) 83% EV / mo +$2,768 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-3.6] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~7.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,993 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,716 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $54 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.51/sh now → $3.20 mid-life (likely $3.31–$5.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 997 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $49 (overshoots $1.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $21 below CC-SS $68.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.31/sh (~25% of the $1.24 collected) or spot ≥ $48.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $68.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,610 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$56,610 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $47): -$37,995 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$494 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,488 (+$18,122 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,874 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,614, the opportunity cost of earning $7,853/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $43 | 17 Jul | 9d | 6.3% | 66% | 74% | $4,780 | $15,933 | +$8,080 | $45,694 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $43 6.3% OTM over spot $40.46 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $2.45 mid) = $4,780 credit for the 9d cycle → $15,933/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays ≤ $45.45) 75% EV / mo +$3,953 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-3.8] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~15.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,426 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 60% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$862 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $57 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.99/sh now → $2.82 mid-life (likely $3.65–$5.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,785 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $45 (overshoots $1.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $25 below CC-SS $68.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.60/sh (~25% of the $2.39 collected) or spot ≥ $45.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $68.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,610 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$56,610 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $43): -$45,694 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,694 (+$10,916 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,874 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,820, the opportunity cost of earning $15,933/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 35 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.019 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$56,610 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-9,874
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $47 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.27 | 20/20 | $8,100 | $6,658 | 94% | 94% | +$6,263 | -$41,934 | 306.1% | $-41,934 (vs do-nothing $-32,060) |
| $46.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 18/20 | $8,100 | $6,771 | 92% | 93% | +$5,922 | -$38,587 | 281.7% | $-39,574 (vs do-nothing $-29,700) |
| $46 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.38 | 14/20 | $7,980 | $6,876 | 91% | 92% | +$5,761 | -$30,600 | 223.4% | $-33,562 (vs do-nothing $-23,688) |
| $45.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 12/20 | $8,100 | $7,108 | 89% | 91% | +$5,614 | -$26,745 | 195.2% | $-30,694 (vs do-nothing $-20,820) |
| $45 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.53 | 10/20 | $7,950 | $7,071 | 87% | 89% | +$5,252 | -$22,707 | 165.7% | $-27,644 (vs do-nothing $-17,770) |
| $44.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 9/20 | $8,370 | $7,547 | 84% | 88% | +$5,226 | -$20,806 | 151.9% | $-26,236 (vs do-nothing $-16,362) |
| $44 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.72 | 8/20 | $8,640 | $7,873 | 81% | 86% | +$5,046 | -$18,814 | 137.3% | $-24,738 (vs do-nothing $-14,864) |
| $47 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.24 | 19/20 | $7,853 | $6,468 | 80% | 83% | +$2,768 | -$37,995 | 277.3% | $-38,488 (vs do-nothing $-28,614) |
| $43.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 7/20 | $8,820 | $8,110 | 78% | 84% | +$4,807 | -$16,728 | 122.1% | $-23,146 (vs do-nothing $-13,272) |
| $46 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.49 | 16/20 | $7,947 | $6,730 | 77% | 81% | +$2,667 | -$33,196 | 242.3% | $-35,170 (vs do-nothing $-25,296) |
| $43 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.98 | 6/20 | $8,820 | $8,166 | 75% | 82% | +$4,467 | -$14,554 | 106.2% | $-21,466 (vs do-nothing $-11,592) |
| $45 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.79 | 14/20 | $8,353 | $7,249 | 73% | 79% | +$2,686 | -$30,026 | 219.2% | $-32,988 (vs do-nothing $-23,114) |
| $46 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.27 | 19/20 | $8,087 | $6,701 | 73% | 79% | +$1,982 | -$37,938 | 276.9% | $-38,431 (vs do-nothing $-28,557) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $42.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.13 | 5/20 | $8,475 | $7,877 | 71% | 79% | +$3,926 | -$12,304 | 89.8% | $-19,709 (vs do-nothing $-9,835) |
| $45 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.60 | 16/20 | $7,800 | $6,583 | 70% | 77% | +$1,878 | -$33,020 | 241.0% | $-34,994 (vs do-nothing $-25,120) |
| $44 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.05 | 12/20 | $8,200 | $7,208 | 70% | 77% | +$2,272 | -$26,625 | 194.3% | $-30,574 (vs do-nothing $-20,700) |
| $44.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.71 | 16/20 | $8,130 | $6,913 | 69% | 77% | +$1,780 | -$33,644 | 245.6% | $-35,618 (vs do-nothing $-25,744) |
| $44 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.86 | 15/20 | $8,044 | $6,883 | 67% | 76% | +$1,663 | -$32,066 | 234.1% | $-34,534 (vs do-nothing $-24,660) |
| $42 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.29 | 5/20 | $9,675 | $9,077 | 66% | 77% | +$4,025 | -$12,474 | 91.0% | $-19,879 (vs do-nothing $-10,005) |
| $43.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 14/20 | $7,875 | $6,771 | 66% | 75% | +$1,497 | -$30,432 | 222.1% | $-33,394 (vs do-nothing $-23,520) |
| $43 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.39 | 10/20 | $7,967 | $7,088 | 66% | 75% | +$1,977 | -$22,847 | 166.8% | $-27,784 (vs do-nothing $-17,910) |
| $43 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 14/20 | $8,269 | $7,165 | 64% | 74% | +$1,443 | -$30,922 | 225.7% | $-33,884 (vs do-nothing $-24,010) |
| $42.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 13/20 | $8,044 | $6,996 | 62% | 73% | +$1,265 | -$29,168 | 212.9% | $-32,624 (vs do-nothing $-22,750) |
| $41.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.49 | 4/20 | $8,940 | $8,398 | 62% | 75% | +$3,383 | -$10,099 | 73.7% | $-17,998 (vs do-nothing $-8,124) |
| $42 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.79 | 9/20 | $8,370 | $7,547 | 61% | 73% | +$1,879 | -$21,103 | 154.0% | $-26,533 (vs do-nothing $-16,659) |
| $42 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 12/20 | $7,875 | $6,883 | 61% | 72% | +$1,187 | -$27,285 | 199.2% | $-31,234 (vs do-nothing $-21,360) |
| $41.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 12/20 | $8,325 | $7,333 | 59% | 71% | +$1,183 | -$27,645 | 201.8% | $-31,594 (vs do-nothing $-21,720) |
| $41 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 4/20 | $10,200 | $9,658 | 57% | 73% | +$3,440 | -$10,215 | 74.6% | $-18,114 (vs do-nothing $-8,240) |
| $41 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 11/20 | $8,456 | $7,521 | 57% | 71% | +$1,471 | -$25,451 | 185.8% | $-29,894 (vs do-nothing $-20,020) |
| $41 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 8/20 | $8,533 | $7,767 | 57% | 71% | +$1,638 | -$19,230 | 140.4% | $-25,154 (vs do-nothing $-15,280) |
| $40.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 10/20 | $7,781 | $6,902 | 55% | 70% | +$1,011 | -$23,587 | 172.2% | $-28,524 (vs do-nothing $-18,650) |
| $40 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 10/20 | $8,250 | $7,371 | 54% | 69% | +$1,038 | -$23,837 | 174.0% | $-28,774 (vs do-nothing $-18,900) |
| $40.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.94 | 3/20 | $8,730 | $8,245 | 52% | 70% | +$2,628 | -$7,739 | 56.5% | $-16,132 (vs do-nothing $-6,258) |
| $40 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 7/20 | $8,517 | $7,806 | 52% | 69% | +$1,364 | -$17,211 | 125.6% | $-23,629 (vs do-nothing $-13,755) |
| $40 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.19 | 3/20 | $9,855 | $9,370 | 47% | 68% | +$2,588 | -$7,814 | 57.0% | $-16,207 (vs do-nothing $-6,333) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.