20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $67.91 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $15,938/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,433/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-54,860 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 19 × $47 | 91% | $8,265 | $2,668 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 18 × $47 | 78% | $8,400 | $1,444 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 16 × $51 | 10 Jul | 2d | 24.7% | 97% | 6% | $96 | $1,440 | -$6,825 | $26,957 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $51 24.7% OTM over spot $40.91 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.17 mid) = $96 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,440/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $51.16) 97% EV / mo +$893 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.2-3.5] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-5,318 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,131 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $63 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.85/sh now → $2.02 mid-life (likely $1.77–$3.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 53 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $53 (overshoots $2.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $17 below CC-SS $67.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $51.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,860 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,860 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $51): -$26,957 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $63): -$1,843 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,800 (+$26,060 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,216 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,584, the opportunity cost of earning $1,440/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-41,491 (+$13,369 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $48 | 10 Jul | 2d | 17.3% | 93% | 14% | $361 | $5,415 | -$2,850 | $37,464 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $48 17.3% OTM over spot $40.91 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.23 mid) = $361 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,415/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $48.23) 94% EV / mo +$3,112 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.1-4.0] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~4.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,739 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,163 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $59 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.62/sh now → $1.85 mid-life (likely $1.88–$3.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 214 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $50 (overshoots $1.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $20 below CC-SS $67.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $48.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,860 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,860 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $48): -$37,464 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$461 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,925 (+$16,935 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,216 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,709, the opportunity cost of earning $5,415/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-41,581 (+$13,279 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $47 | 10 Jul | 2d | 14.9% | 91% | 11% | $551 | $8,265 | — | $39,174 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $47 14.9% OTM over spot $40.91 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.33 mid) = $551 credit for the 2d cycle → $8,265/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $47.33) 92% EV / mo +$4,662 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-3.7] median · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~6.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,666 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,872 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $59 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.55/sh now → $1.80 mid-life (likely $1.89–$3.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 327 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $49 (overshoots $2.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $21 below CC-SS $67.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $47.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,860 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,860 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $47): -$39,174 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$461 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,635 (+$15,225 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,216 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,419, the opportunity cost of earning $8,265/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$266, position total $-41,847 (+$13,013 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $46 | 10 Jul | 2d | 12.4% | 90% | 20% | $860 | $12,900 | +$4,635 | $42,956 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $46 12.4% OTM over spot $40.91 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.46 mid) = $860 credit for the 2d cycle → $12,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $46.47) 92% EV / mo +$9,616 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-4.3] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~9.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $24,219 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,639 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $58 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.47/sh now → $1.75 mid-life (likely $1.90–$3.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 458 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $48 (overshoots $1.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $22 below CC-SS $67.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.43 collected) or spot ≥ $46.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,860 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,860 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $46): -$42,956 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,956 (+$11,904 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,216 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,740, the opportunity cost of earning $12,900/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,000, position total $-43,611 (+$11,249 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $45 | 10 Jul | 2d | 10.0% | 86% | 30% | $1,080 | $16,200 | +$7,935 | $40,154 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $45 10.0% OTM over spot $40.91 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.65 mid) = $1,080 credit for the 2d cycle → $16,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $45.65) 89% EV / mo +$10,921 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-4.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~13.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $28,769 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,976 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $58 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.40/sh now → $1.70 mid-life (likely $1.87–$3.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 609 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $47 (overshoots $1.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $23 below CC-SS $67.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $45.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,860 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,860 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $45): -$40,154 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $63): -$922 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,076 (+$13,784 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,216 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,860, the opportunity cost of earning $16,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,294, position total $-44,845 (+$10,015 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 14 × $55 | 17 Jul | 9d | 34.4% | 94% | 13% | $462 | $1,540 | -$6,860 | $17,609 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $55 34.4% OTM over spot $40.91 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.39 mid) = $462 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,540/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $55.39) 94% EV / mo +$798 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-4.1] median · 43% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~1.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-777 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,158 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $60 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.67/sh now → $4.01 mid-life (likely $3.39–$5.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 277 simulated challenges: the $55 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $57 (overshoots $2.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $13 below CC-SS $67.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $55.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,860 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,860 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $55): -$17,609 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $63): -$2,765 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,374 (+$34,486 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,216 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,158, the opportunity cost of earning $1,540/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-41,431 (+$13,429 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $53 | 17 Jul | 9d | 29.6% | 91% | 18% | $960 | $3,200 | -$5,200 | $28,856 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $53 29.6% OTM over spot $40.91 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.56 mid) = $960 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $53) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $53.56) 92% EV / mo +$1,559 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.0-3.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 43% without) · ~2.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,427 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,654 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $58 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.38/sh now → $3.81 mid-life (likely $3.27–$5.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 439 simulated challenges: the $53 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $55 (overshoots $2.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $53 is $15 below CC-SS $67.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.48 collected) or spot ≥ $53.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $53)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,860 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,860 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $53): -$28,856 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,856 (+$26,004 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,216 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,640, the opportunity cost of earning $3,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-41,611 (+$13,249 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 20 × $50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 22.2% | 86% | 29% | $1,660 | $5,533 | -$2,867 | $34,156 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $50 22.2% OTM over spot $40.91 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.90 mid) = $1,660 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,533/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $50.90) 88% EV / mo +$2,330 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [1.0-4.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~4.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,566 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,348 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $56 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.95/sh now → $3.50 mid-life (likely $3.34–$5.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 685 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $52 (overshoots $2.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $18 below CC-SS $67.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.83 collected) or spot ≥ $50.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,860 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,860 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $50): -$34,156 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,156 (+$20,704 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,216 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,940, the opportunity cost of earning $5,533/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-41,611 (+$13,249 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $47 | 17 Jul | 9d | 14.9% | 78% | 36% | $2,520 | $8,400 | — | $35,114 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $47 14.9% OTM over spot $40.91 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.47 mid) = $2,520 credit for the 9d cycle → $8,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $48.47) 82% EV / mo +$2,846 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.2-3.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~7.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,751 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,261 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $54 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.54/sh now → $3.21 mid-life (likely $3.49–$5.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,083 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $49 (overshoots $1.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $21 below CC-SS $67.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.40 collected) or spot ≥ $48.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,860 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,860 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $47): -$35,114 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $63): -$922 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,036 (+$18,824 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,216 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,820, the opportunity cost of earning $8,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-41,551 (+$13,309 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $43 | 17 Jul | 9d | 5.1% | 63% | 79% | $5,035 | $16,783 | +$8,383 | $42,290 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $43 5.1% OTM over spot $40.91 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $2.71 mid) = $5,035 credit for the 9d cycle → $16,783/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $45.72) 74% EV / mo +$3,806 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.0-4.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo) · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~16.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,380 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$357 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $56 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.01/sh now → $2.84 mid-life (likely $3.78–$5.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,927 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $45 (overshoots $1.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $25 below CC-SS $67.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.66/sh (~25% of the $2.65 collected) or spot ≥ $45.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,860 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,860 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $43): -$42,290 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$461 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,751 (+$12,109 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,216 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,535, the opportunity cost of earning $16,783/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,382, position total $-44,963 (+$9,897 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 31 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.016 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$54,860 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-9,216
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $47 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.29 | 19/20 | $8,265 | $6,888 | 91% | 92% | +$4,662 | -$39,174 | 285.9% | $-39,635 (vs do-nothing $-30,419) |
| $46 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.43 | 13/20 | $8,385 | $7,345 | 90% | 92% | +$6,250 | -$27,921 | 203.8% | $-31,147 (vs do-nothing $-21,931) |
| $45 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 9/20 | $8,100 | $7,285 | 86% | 89% | +$5,461 | -$20,077 | 146.5% | $-25,146 (vs do-nothing $-15,930) |
| $44.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | 8/20 | $8,040 | $7,282 | 83% | 87% | +$4,957 | -$18,190 | 132.8% | $-23,720 (vs do-nothing $-14,504) |
| $44 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 7/20 | $8,820 | $8,118 | 79% | 85% | +$5,316 | -$16,148 | 117.9% | $-22,138 (vs do-nothing $-12,922) |
| $47 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.40 | 18/20 | $8,400 | $7,079 | 78% | 82% | +$2,846 | -$35,114 | 256.3% | $-36,036 (vs do-nothing $-26,820) |
| $43.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.95 | 6/20 | $8,550 | $7,904 | 76% | 83% | +$4,692 | -$14,075 | 102.7% | $-20,526 (vs do-nothing $-11,310) |
| $46 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.64 | 15/20 | $8,200 | $7,048 | 75% | 80% | +$2,493 | -$30,402 | 221.9% | $-32,706 (vs do-nothing $-23,490) |
| $47 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.24 | 19/20 | $7,980 | $6,603 | 74% | 80% | +$2,218 | -$35,469 | 258.9% | $-35,930 (vs do-nothing $-26,714) |
| $43 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.11 | 5/20 | $8,325 | $7,735 | 72% | 81% | +$4,244 | -$11,899 | 86.9% | $-18,811 (vs do-nothing $-9,595) |
| $46 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.52 | 17/20 | $8,032 | $6,768 | 72% | 79% | +$2,098 | -$32,960 | 240.6% | $-34,342 (vs do-nothing $-25,126) |
| $45 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.96 | 13/20 | $8,493 | $7,454 | 71% | 78% | +$2,436 | -$27,232 | 198.8% | $-30,458 (vs do-nothing $-21,242) |
| $45 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.83 | 16/20 | $8,490 | $7,282 | 69% | 77% | +$2,072 | -$32,125 | 234.5% | $-33,968 (vs do-nothing $-24,752) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.27 | 11/20 | $8,323 | $7,396 | 67% | 76% | +$2,093 | -$23,802 | 173.7% | $-27,949 (vs do-nothing $-18,733) |
| $42.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.29 | 5/20 | $9,675 | $9,085 | 67% | 78% | +$4,552 | -$12,059 | 88.0% | $-18,971 (vs do-nothing $-9,755) |
| $44.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.97 | 15/20 | $8,353 | $7,201 | 67% | 76% | +$1,909 | -$30,657 | 223.8% | $-32,961 (vs do-nothing $-23,745) |
| $44 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 15/20 | $8,438 | $7,285 | 66% | 75% | +$1,539 | -$31,362 | 228.9% | $-33,666 (vs do-nothing $-24,450) |
| $43.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 14/20 | $8,138 | $7,042 | 64% | 74% | +$1,250 | -$29,831 | 217.7% | $-32,596 (vs do-nothing $-23,380) |
| $43 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.65 | 10/20 | $8,833 | $7,963 | 63% | 74% | +$2,003 | -$22,258 | 162.5% | $-26,866 (vs do-nothing $-17,650) |
| $42 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.50 | 4/20 | $9,000 | $8,467 | 63% | 76% | +$3,915 | -$9,763 | 71.3% | $-17,136 (vs do-nothing $-7,920) |
| $43 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 13/20 | $8,166 | $7,126 | 63% | 73% | +$1,328 | -$28,025 | 204.6% | $-31,251 (vs do-nothing $-22,035) |
| $42.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 13/20 | $8,531 | $7,492 | 61% | 73% | +$1,227 | -$28,480 | 207.9% | $-31,706 (vs do-nothing $-22,490) |
| $42 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 12/20 | $8,438 | $7,454 | 59% | 72% | +$1,240 | -$26,590 | 194.1% | $-30,276 (vs do-nothing $-21,060) |
| $42 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 8/20 | $8,000 | $7,242 | 59% | 72% | +$1,464 | -$18,326 | 133.8% | $-23,856 (vs do-nothing $-14,640) |
| $41.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.72 | 4/20 | $10,320 | $9,787 | 58% | 74% | +$4,081 | -$9,875 | 72.1% | $-17,248 (vs do-nothing $-8,032) |
| $41.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 11/20 | $8,147 | $7,220 | 57% | 71% | +$1,109 | -$24,704 | 180.3% | $-28,851 (vs do-nothing $-19,635) |
| $41 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 10/20 | $7,969 | $7,098 | 56% | 70% | +$1,150 | -$22,658 | 165.4% | $-27,266 (vs do-nothing $-18,050) |
| $41 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 7/20 | $8,050 | $7,348 | 55% | 69% | +$1,268 | -$16,421 | 119.9% | $-22,411 (vs do-nothing $-13,195) |
| $40.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 10/20 | $8,344 | $7,473 | 54% | 70% | +$1,083 | -$22,958 | 167.6% | $-27,566 (vs do-nothing $-18,350) |
| $41 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 3/20 | $9,000 | $8,523 | 53% | 70% | +$2,396 | -$7,472 | 54.5% | $-15,306 (vs do-nothing $-6,090) |
| $40.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.24 | 3/20 | $10,080 | $9,603 | 49% | 68% | +$2,315 | -$7,550 | 55.1% | $-15,384 (vs do-nothing $-6,168) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.