20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $67.14 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $16,200/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,097/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-51,300 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 18 × $48 | 79% | $8,486 | $1,989 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 18 × $58 | 17 Jul | 7d | 35.9% | 98% | 5% | $270 | $1,157 | -$7,329 | $16,182 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $58 35.9% OTM over spot $42.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.15 mid) = $270 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,157/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $58) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $58.16) 98% EV / mo +$918 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [1.0-3.4] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-544 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,957 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $68 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.89/sh now → $3.46 mid-life (likely $2.21–$4.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 79 simulated challenges: the $58 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $60 (overshoots $1.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $58 is $9 below CC-SS $67.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $58.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $58)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,849 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $58): -$16,182 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $63): -$776 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,409 (+$33,891 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,211 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,198, the opportunity cost of earning $1,157/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $52 | 17 Jul | 7d | 21.9% | 90% | 20% | $960 | $4,114 | -$4,371 | $29,321 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $52 21.9% OTM over spot $42.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.52 mid) = $960 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,114/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $52.52) 91% EV / mo +$2,225 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-3.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~3.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,669 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,921 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $61 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.16/sh now → $2.94 mid-life (likely $2.52–$4.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 436 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $54 (overshoots $1.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $15 below CC-SS $67.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.48 collected) or spot ≥ $52.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,849 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $52): -$29,321 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,771 (+$21,529 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,211 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,560, the opportunity cost of earning $4,114/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 20 × $51 | 17 Jul | 7d | 19.5% | 88% | 24% | $1,260 | $5,400 | -$3,086 | $31,021 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $51 19.5% OTM over spot $42.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.66 mid) = $1,260 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $51.66) 90% EV / mo +$3,007 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~4.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,289 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,456 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $61 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.04/sh now → $2.86 mid-life (likely $2.67–$4.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 558 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $53 (overshoots $1.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $16 below CC-SS $67.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.63 collected) or spot ≥ $51.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,849 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $51): -$31,021 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,471 (+$19,829 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,211 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,260, the opportunity cost of earning $5,400/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $48 | 17 Jul | 7d | 12.5% | 79% | 32% | $1,980 | $8,486 | — | $32,472 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $48 12.5% OTM over spot $42.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.16 mid) = $1,980 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,486/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $49.16) 83% EV / mo +$3,471 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-4.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~8.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,096 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,728 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $60 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.70/sh now → $2.62 mid-life (likely $2.79–$4.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 966 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $50 (overshoots $1.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $19 below CC-SS $67.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.10 collected) or spot ≥ $49.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,849 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $48): -$32,472 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $63): -$776 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,699 (+$17,601 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,211 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,488, the opportunity cost of earning $8,486/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $45 | 17 Jul | 7d | 5.5% | 66% | 72% | $3,800 | $16,286 | +$7,800 | $38,266 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $45 5.5% OTM over spot $42.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.05 mid) = $3,800 credit for the 7d cycle → $16,286/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays ≤ $47.05) 75% EV / mo +$4,891 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [1.0-4.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~16.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,208 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 56% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$727 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $61 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.37/sh now → $2.38 mid-life (likely $2.99–$4.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,679 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $47 (overshoots $1.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $22 below CC-SS $67.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.50/sh (~25% of the $2.00 collected) or spot ≥ $47.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,849 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $45): -$38,266 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$388 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,105 (+$12,195 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,211 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,894, the opportunity cost of earning $16,286/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 24 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.039 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$50,849 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-8,211
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $48 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.10 | 18/20 | $8,486 | $7,500 | 79% | 83% | +$3,471 | -$32,472 | 237.0% | $-33,699 (vs do-nothing $-25,488) |
| $47 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.40 | 14/20 | $8,400 | $7,637 | 75% | 81% | +$3,311 | -$26,236 | 191.5% | $-29,015 (vs do-nothing $-20,804) |
| $48 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.97 | 20/20 | $8,443 | $7,346 | 74% | 79% | +$2,312 | -$34,341 | 250.7% | $-34,791 (vs do-nothing $-26,580) |
| $48 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.90 | 20/20 | $8,286 | $7,189 | 71% | 78% | +$2,132 | -$32,481 | 237.1% | $-32,931 (vs do-nothing $-24,720) |
| $46 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.64 | 12/20 | $8,434 | $7,783 | 71% | 78% | +$2,800 | -$23,400 | 170.8% | $-26,955 (vs do-nothing $-18,744) |
| $47 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.27 | 17/20 | $8,269 | $7,339 | 71% | 78% | +$2,105 | -$30,379 | 221.7% | $-31,994 (vs do-nothing $-23,783) |
| $47 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 18/20 | $8,100 | $7,114 | 69% | 77% | +$1,829 | -$30,582 | 223.2% | $-31,809 (vs do-nothing $-23,598) |
| $46 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.62 | 15/20 | $8,421 | $7,603 | 67% | 76% | +$2,016 | -$27,780 | 202.8% | $-30,171 (vs do-nothing $-21,960) |
| $45 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 10/20 | $8,571 | $8,031 | 66% | 75% | +$2,574 | -$20,140 | 147.0% | $-24,471 (vs do-nothing $-16,260) |
| $46 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 17/20 | $8,257 | $7,327 | 66% | 75% | +$1,645 | -$30,158 | 220.1% | $-31,773 (vs do-nothing $-23,562) |
| $45 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 13/20 | $8,496 | $7,789 | 64% | 74% | +$1,989 | -$24,817 | 181.1% | $-27,984 (vs do-nothing $-19,773) |
| $45 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 15/20 | $8,571 | $7,753 | 63% | 74% | +$1,966 | -$27,210 | 198.6% | $-29,601 (vs do-nothing $-21,390) |
| $44.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 13/20 | $8,636 | $7,929 | 62% | 73% | +$1,603 | -$25,402 | 185.4% | $-28,569 (vs do-nothing $-20,358) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.40 | 8/20 | $8,229 | $7,800 | 61% | 73% | +$2,175 | -$16,592 | 121.1% | $-21,699 (vs do-nothing $-13,488) |
| $44 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 14/20 | $8,300 | $7,537 | 60% | 72% | +$1,341 | -$26,586 | 194.1% | $-29,365 (vs do-nothing $-21,154) |
| $44 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 12/20 | $8,486 | $7,834 | 60% | 72% | +$1,480 | -$23,808 | 173.8% | $-27,363 (vs do-nothing $-19,152) |
| $43.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 11/20 | $8,250 | $7,654 | 58% | 71% | +$1,328 | -$22,154 | 161.7% | $-26,097 (vs do-nothing $-17,886) |
| $43 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 12/20 | $8,229 | $7,577 | 57% | 71% | +$1,515 | -$23,208 | 169.4% | $-26,763 (vs do-nothing $-18,552) |
| $43 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 10/20 | $8,143 | $7,603 | 56% | 70% | +$1,370 | -$20,340 | 148.5% | $-24,671 (vs do-nothing $-16,460) |
| $43 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.85 | 7/20 | $8,550 | $8,177 | 55% | 70% | +$1,952 | -$14,903 | 108.8% | $-20,398 (vs do-nothing $-12,187) |
| $42.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 10/20 | $8,464 | $7,924 | 54% | 69% | +$1,185 | -$20,690 | 151.0% | $-25,021 (vs do-nothing $-16,810) |
| $42 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 11/20 | $8,171 | $7,576 | 53% | 69% | +$1,269 | -$21,934 | 160.1% | $-25,877 (vs do-nothing $-17,666) |
| $42 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 9/20 | $8,486 | $8,001 | 52% | 69% | +$1,454 | -$18,666 | 136.2% | $-23,385 (vs do-nothing $-15,174) |
| $42 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 6/20 | $8,486 | $8,169 | 49% | 68% | +$1,535 | -$13,104 | 95.7% | $-18,987 (vs do-nothing $-10,776) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.