20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $67.12 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $16,286/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,097/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-50,900 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 17 × $48 | 79% | $8,160 | $2,216 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 18 × $58 | 17 Jul | 7d | 35.5% | 97% | 6% | $270 | $1,157 | -$7,003 | $16,139 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $58 35.5% OTM over spot $42.81 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.16 mid) = $270 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,157/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $58) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $58.16) 97% EV / mo +$825 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.6] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-561 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,652 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $69 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.65/sh now → $3.29 mid-life (likely $2.06–$3.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 79 simulated challenges: the $58 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $59 (overshoots $1.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $58 is $9 below CC-SS $67.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $58.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $58)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,449 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $58): -$16,139 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $63): -$771 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,361 (+$33,539 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,163 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,198, the opportunity cost of earning $1,157/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $52 | 17 Jul | 7d | 21.5% | 90% | 21% | $1,000 | $4,286 | -$3,874 | $29,232 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $52 21.5% OTM over spot $42.81 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.53 mid) = $1,000 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,286/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $52.52) 91% EV / mo +$2,318 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-3.7] median · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~3.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,126 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,594 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $62 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.95/sh now → $2.80 mid-life (likely $2.46–$4.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 447 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $54 (overshoots $1.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $15 below CC-SS $67.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $52.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,449 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $52): -$29,232 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,683 (+$21,217 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,163 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,520, the opportunity cost of earning $4,286/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 17 × $50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 16.8% | 85% | 31% | $1,309 | $5,610 | -$2,550 | $27,788 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $50 16.8% OTM over spot $42.81 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.78 mid) = $1,309 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,610/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $50.78) 87% EV / mo +$2,690 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [1.0-3.5] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~5.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,790 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,179 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $61 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.73/sh now → $2.64 mid-life (likely $2.51–$4.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 680 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $52 (overshoots $1.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $17 below CC-SS $67.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.77 collected) or spot ≥ $50.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,449 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $50): -$27,788 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $63): -$1,157 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,396 (+$21,504 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,163 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,233, the opportunity cost of earning $5,610/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 17 × $48 | 17 Jul | 7d | 12.1% | 79% | 33% | $1,904 | $8,160 | — | $30,593 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $48 12.1% OTM over spot $42.81 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.17 mid) = $1,904 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,160/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $49.16) 83% EV / mo +$3,151 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-4.0] median · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~8.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,195 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,325 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $61 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.52/sh now → $2.49 mid-life (likely $2.70–$4.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 984 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $50 (overshoots $1.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $19 below CC-SS $67.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.12 collected) or spot ≥ $49.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,449 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $48): -$30,593 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $63): -$1,157 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,201 (+$18,699 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,163 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,038, the opportunity cost of earning $8,160/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $45 | 17 Jul | 7d | 5.1% | 65% | 74% | $3,800 | $16,286 | +$8,126 | $38,221 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $45 5.1% OTM over spot $42.81 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.02 mid) = $3,800 credit for the 7d cycle → $16,286/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $47.02) 75% EV / mo +$4,445 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-4.4] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~16.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,471 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 57% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$505 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $60 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.20/sh now → $2.27 mid-life (likely $2.85–$4.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,720 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $47 (overshoots $1.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $22 below CC-SS $67.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.50/sh (~25% of the $2.00 collected) or spot ≥ $47.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,449 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $45): -$38,221 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$386 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,057 (+$11,843 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,163 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,894, the opportunity cost of earning $16,286/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 24 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.038 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$50,449 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-8,163
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $48 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.12 | 17/20 | $8,160 | $7,230 | 79% | 83% | +$3,151 | -$30,593 | 223.3% | $-32,201 (vs do-nothing $-24,038) |
| $47 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.32 | 15/20 | $8,486 | $7,667 | 75% | 80% | +$2,758 | -$28,194 | 205.8% | $-30,573 (vs do-nothing $-22,410) |
| $48 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.99 | 20/20 | $8,529 | $7,431 | 73% | 79% | +$2,244 | -$34,252 | 250.0% | $-34,703 (vs do-nothing $-26,540) |
| $48 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.95 | 20/20 | $8,429 | $7,331 | 71% | 78% | +$2,191 | -$32,332 | 236.0% | $-32,783 (vs do-nothing $-24,620) |
| $46 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.66 | 12/20 | $8,537 | $7,886 | 70% | 77% | +$2,653 | -$23,347 | 170.4% | $-26,883 (vs do-nothing $-18,720) |
| $47 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.33 | 17/20 | $8,488 | $7,558 | 70% | 77% | +$2,186 | -$30,236 | 220.7% | $-31,844 (vs do-nothing $-23,681) |
| $47 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 18/20 | $8,229 | $7,243 | 68% | 76% | +$1,872 | -$30,449 | 222.3% | $-31,671 (vs do-nothing $-23,508) |
| $46 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.64 | 15/20 | $8,486 | $7,667 | 67% | 75% | +$1,951 | -$27,714 | 202.3% | $-30,093 (vs do-nothing $-21,930) |
| $46 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 17/20 | $8,379 | $7,449 | 65% | 75% | +$1,596 | -$30,032 | 219.2% | $-31,640 (vs do-nothing $-23,477) |
| $45 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 10/20 | $8,571 | $8,031 | 65% | 75% | +$2,340 | -$20,116 | 146.8% | $-24,423 (vs do-nothing $-16,260) |
| $45 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 13/20 | $8,357 | $7,650 | 63% | 73% | +$1,732 | -$24,851 | 181.4% | $-28,001 (vs do-nothing $-19,838) |
| $45 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 15/20 | $8,357 | $7,539 | 62% | 73% | +$1,614 | -$27,324 | 199.4% | $-29,703 (vs do-nothing $-21,540) |
| $44.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 13/20 | $8,636 | $7,929 | 61% | 72% | +$1,482 | -$25,371 | 185.2% | $-28,521 (vs do-nothing $-20,358) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.39 | 8/20 | $8,194 | $7,766 | 60% | 72% | +$1,930 | -$16,581 | 121.0% | $-21,659 (vs do-nothing $-13,496) |
| $44 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 14/20 | $8,600 | $7,837 | 59% | 72% | +$1,462 | -$26,343 | 192.3% | $-29,107 (vs do-nothing $-20,944) |
| $44 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 12/20 | $8,614 | $7,963 | 59% | 72% | +$1,493 | -$23,719 | 173.1% | $-27,255 (vs do-nothing $-19,092) |
| $43.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 11/20 | $8,250 | $7,654 | 57% | 71% | +$1,219 | -$22,128 | 161.5% | $-26,049 (vs do-nothing $-17,886) |
| $43 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 12/20 | $8,143 | $7,491 | 56% | 71% | +$1,350 | -$23,239 | 169.6% | $-26,775 (vs do-nothing $-18,612) |
| $43 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 10/20 | $8,143 | $7,603 | 55% | 70% | +$1,267 | -$20,316 | 148.3% | $-24,623 (vs do-nothing $-16,460) |
| $43 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.84 | 7/20 | $8,520 | $8,147 | 54% | 69% | +$1,718 | -$14,893 | 108.7% | $-20,357 (vs do-nothing $-12,194) |
| $42.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 10/20 | $8,571 | $8,031 | 53% | 69% | +$1,185 | -$20,616 | 150.5% | $-24,923 (vs do-nothing $-16,760) |
| $42 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 11/20 | $8,171 | $7,576 | 53% | 69% | +$1,111 | -$21,908 | 159.9% | $-25,829 (vs do-nothing $-17,666) |
| $42 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 9/20 | $8,389 | $7,905 | 51% | 68% | +$1,258 | -$18,690 | 136.4% | $-23,382 (vs do-nothing $-15,219) |
| $42 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 6/20 | $8,486 | $8,169 | 49% | 67% | +$1,342 | -$13,090 | 95.5% | $-18,939 (vs do-nothing $-10,776) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.