20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $67.16 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $16,286/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,097/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-51,750 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 19 × $48 | 80% | $8,387 | $1,885 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 20 × $58 | 17 Jul | 7d | 36.6% | 97% | 5% | $260 | $1,114 | -$7,273 | $18,054 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $58 36.6% OTM over spot $42.47 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.15 mid) = $260 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,114/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $58) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $58.16) 98% EV / mo +$814 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.5] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~0.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,323 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,550 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $68 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.81/sh now → $3.41 mid-life (likely $2.59–$4.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 86 simulated challenges: the $58 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $60 (overshoots $1.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $58 is $9 below CC-SS $67.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $58.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $58)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,299 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $58): -$18,054 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,504 (+$33,246 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,324 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,180, the opportunity cost of earning $1,114/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $52 | 17 Jul | 7d | 22.4% | 91% | 19% | $900 | $3,857 | -$4,530 | $29,414 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $52 22.4% OTM over spot $42.47 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.47 mid) = $900 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,857/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $52.48) 92% EV / mo +$2,172 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-4.0] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,739 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,887 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $62 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.09/sh now → $2.89 mid-life (likely $2.49–$4.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 419 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $54 (overshoots $1.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $15 below CC-SS $67.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $52.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,299 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $52): -$29,414 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,864 (+$21,886 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,324 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,540, the opportunity cost of earning $3,857/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 18 × $50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 17.7% | 86% | 28% | $1,260 | $5,400 | -$2,987 | $29,622 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $50 17.7% OTM over spot $42.47 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.71 mid) = $1,260 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $50.72) 88% EV / mo +$2,710 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-3.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~5.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,035 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,656 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $61 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.86/sh now → $2.73 mid-life (likely $2.49–$4.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 648 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $52 (overshoots $1.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $17 below CC-SS $67.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.70 collected) or spot ≥ $50.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,299 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $50): -$29,622 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $63): -$787 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,860 (+$20,890 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,324 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,536, the opportunity cost of earning $5,400/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $48 | 17 Jul | 7d | 13.0% | 80% | 31% | $1,957 | $8,387 | — | $34,441 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $48 13.0% OTM over spot $42.47 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.06 mid) = $1,957 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,387/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $49.06) 84% EV / mo +$3,446 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-3.8] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~8.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,888 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,932 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $60 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.64/sh now → $2.57 mid-life (likely $2.73–$4.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 931 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $50 (overshoots $1.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $19 below CC-SS $67.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.03 collected) or spot ≥ $49.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,299 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $48): -$34,441 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$394 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,285 (+$16,465 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,324 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,961, the opportunity cost of earning $8,387/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $44 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.6% | 62% | 81% | $3,978 | $17,049 | +$8,661 | $37,704 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $44 3.6% OTM over spot $42.47 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.25 mid) = $3,978 credit for the 7d cycle → $17,049/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $46.24) 73% EV / mo +$4,240 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-3.9] median · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~21.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $19,609 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$106 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $60 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.21/sh now → $2.27 mid-life (likely $3.00–$4.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,882 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $46 (overshoots $1.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $23 below CC-SS $67.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.55/sh (~25% of the $2.21 collected) or spot ≥ $46.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,299 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $44): -$37,704 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $63): -$787 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,942 (+$12,808 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,324 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,618, the opportunity cost of earning $17,049/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 23 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.039 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$51,299 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-8,324
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $48 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.03 | 19/20 | $8,387 | $7,337 | 80% | 84% | +$3,446 | -$34,441 | 251.4% | $-35,285 (vs do-nothing $-26,961) |
| $47 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.22 | 16/20 | $8,366 | $7,457 | 76% | 81% | +$2,935 | -$30,299 | 221.2% | $-32,324 (vs do-nothing $-24,000) |
| $48 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.91 | 20/20 | $8,186 | $7,089 | 74% | 80% | +$2,402 | -$34,494 | 251.8% | $-34,944 (vs do-nothing $-26,620) |
| $46 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.52 | 13/20 | $8,469 | $7,701 | 72% | 78% | +$2,761 | -$25,528 | 186.3% | $-28,734 (vs do-nothing $-20,410) |
| $47 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.18 | 18/20 | $8,409 | $7,406 | 71% | 78% | +$2,244 | -$32,358 | 236.2% | $-33,596 (vs do-nothing $-25,272) |
| $47 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 19/20 | $8,143 | $7,093 | 69% | 77% | +$1,854 | -$32,598 | 237.9% | $-33,442 (vs do-nothing $-25,118) |
| $46 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.48 | 16/20 | $8,503 | $7,594 | 68% | 76% | +$2,038 | -$29,883 | 218.1% | $-31,908 (vs do-nothing $-23,584) |
| $45 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.82 | 11/20 | $8,580 | $7,907 | 67% | 76% | +$2,396 | -$22,370 | 163.3% | $-26,364 (vs do-nothing $-18,040) |
| $46 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 17/20 | $8,257 | $7,301 | 66% | 76% | +$1,866 | -$30,187 | 220.3% | $-31,818 (vs do-nothing $-23,494) |
| $45 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.83 | 14/20 | $8,490 | $7,676 | 64% | 74% | +$1,846 | -$27,058 | 197.5% | $-29,870 (vs do-nothing $-21,546) |
| $45 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 16/20 | $8,457 | $7,549 | 64% | 74% | +$1,643 | -$29,531 | 215.6% | $-31,556 (vs do-nothing $-23,232) |
| $44.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 13/20 | $8,357 | $7,590 | 63% | 73% | +$1,683 | -$25,554 | 186.5% | $-28,760 (vs do-nothing $-20,436) |
| $44 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.21 | 9/20 | $8,524 | $7,946 | 62% | 73% | +$2,120 | -$18,852 | 137.6% | $-23,633 (vs do-nothing $-15,309) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 12/20 | $8,229 | $7,509 | 61% | 72% | +$1,572 | -$23,948 | 174.8% | $-27,548 (vs do-nothing $-19,224) |
| $44 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 15/20 | $8,250 | $7,389 | 61% | 72% | +$1,032 | -$28,960 | 211.4% | $-31,379 (vs do-nothing $-23,055) |
| $43.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 12/20 | $8,743 | $8,023 | 59% | 72% | +$1,559 | -$24,308 | 177.4% | $-27,908 (vs do-nothing $-19,584) |
| $43 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 13/20 | $8,450 | $7,683 | 57% | 71% | +$1,403 | -$25,489 | 186.1% | $-28,695 (vs do-nothing $-20,371) |
| $43 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 11/20 | $8,604 | $7,931 | 57% | 70% | +$1,506 | -$22,557 | 164.7% | $-26,551 (vs do-nothing $-18,227) |
| $43 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.63 | 8/20 | $9,017 | $8,486 | 56% | 70% | +$1,899 | -$17,221 | 125.7% | $-22,396 (vs do-nothing $-14,072) |
| $42.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 10/20 | $8,143 | $7,517 | 55% | 70% | +$1,199 | -$20,857 | 152.2% | $-25,244 (vs do-nothing $-16,920) |
| $42 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.95 | 12/20 | $8,486 | $7,766 | 54% | 70% | +$1,182 | -$24,248 | 177.0% | $-27,848 (vs do-nothing $-19,524) |
| $42 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 10/20 | $8,679 | $8,053 | 53% | 69% | +$1,215 | -$21,107 | 154.1% | $-25,494 (vs do-nothing $-17,170) |
| $42 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 7/20 | $9,000 | $8,516 | 50% | 68% | +$1,313 | -$15,510 | 113.2% | $-21,078 (vs do-nothing $-12,754) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.