20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $66.53 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $13,800/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,140/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-50,960 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 19 × $48 | 81% | $6,921 | $1,392 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 14 × $55 | 17 Jul | 7d | 30.5% | 95% | 10% | $280 | $1,200 | -$5,721 | $15,863 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $55 30.5% OTM over spot $42.13 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.25 mid) = $280 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $55.25) 96% EV / mo +$733 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.5] median · 47% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~1.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,577 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,751 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $66 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.07/sh now → $2.88 mid-life (likely $2.39–$3.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 166 simulated challenges: the $55 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $57 (overshoots $2.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $12 below CC-SS $66.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $55.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,960 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,509 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $55): -$15,863 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $63): -$2,082 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,396 (+$32,564 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,392 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,004, the opportunity cost of earning $1,200/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $52 | 17 Jul | 7d | 23.4% | 92% | 18% | $760 | $3,257 | -$3,664 | $28,301 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $52 23.4% OTM over spot $42.13 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.42 mid) = $760 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,257/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $52.41) 92% EV / mo +$1,698 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.3-4.0] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~3.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,845 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,538 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $63 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.74/sh now → $2.65 mid-life (likely $2.24–$3.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 390 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $54 (overshoots $1.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $15 below CC-SS $66.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $52.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,960 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,509 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $52): -$28,301 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,752 (+$22,208 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,392 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,360, the opportunity cost of earning $3,257/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 18.7% | 87% | 26% | $1,102 | $4,723 | -$2,199 | $30,306 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $50 18.7% OTM over spot $42.13 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.60 mid) = $1,102 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,723/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $50.60) 89% EV / mo +$2,117 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-3.5] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~5.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,922 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,649 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $61 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.53/sh now → $2.50 mid-life (likely $2.33–$3.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 538 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $52 (overshoots $1.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $17 below CC-SS $66.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.58 collected) or spot ≥ $50.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,960 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,509 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $50): -$30,306 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$347 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,104 (+$19,856 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,392 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,712, the opportunity cost of earning $4,723/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $48 | 17 Jul | 7d | 13.9% | 81% | 29% | $1,615 | $6,921 | — | $33,593 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $48 13.9% OTM over spot $42.13 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.88 mid) = $1,615 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,921/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $48.88) 84% EV / mo +$2,356 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-3.6] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~7.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,182 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,860 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $60 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.33/sh now → $2.36 mid-life (likely $2.39–$3.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 865 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $50 (overshoots $1.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $19 below CC-SS $66.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $48.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,960 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,509 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $48): -$33,593 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$347 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,391 (+$16,569 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,392 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,999, the opportunity cost of earning $6,921/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $45 | 17 Jul | 7d | 6.8% | 69% | 66% | $3,240 | $13,886 | +$6,964 | $39,821 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $45 6.8% OTM over spot $42.13 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.64 mid) = $3,240 credit for the 7d cycle → $13,886/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $46.63) 76% EV / mo +$3,486 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-3.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~13.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,202 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 50% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,049 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $62 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.03/sh now → $2.14 mid-life (likely $2.63–$3.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.62/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,514 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $47 (overshoots $1.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $22 below CC-SS $66.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.62 collected) or spot ≥ $46.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,960 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,509 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $45): -$39,821 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,272 (+$10,688 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,392 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,880, the opportunity cost of earning $13,886/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 25 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.035 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$50,509 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-7,392
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $48 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 19/20 | $6,921 | $5,794 | 81% | 84% | +$2,356 | -$33,593 | 245.2% | $-34,391 (vs do-nothing $-26,999) |
| $47 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 16/20 | $7,200 | $6,111 | 78% | 82% | +$2,170 | -$29,569 | 215.8% | $-31,408 (vs do-nothing $-24,016) |
| $48 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.69 | 20/20 | $7,243 | $6,103 | 76% | 80% | +$1,793 | -$33,681 | 245.8% | $-34,132 (vs do-nothing $-26,740) |
| $46 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.29 | 13/20 | $7,187 | $6,137 | 73% | 79% | +$1,901 | -$25,013 | 182.6% | $-27,893 (vs do-nothing $-20,501) |
| $48 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.43 | 20/20 | $6,943 | $5,803 | 73% | 79% | +$1,314 | -$32,201 | 235.0% | $-32,652 (vs do-nothing $-25,260) |
| $47 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.91 | 17/20 | $6,958 | $5,856 | 72% | 78% | +$1,470 | -$29,955 | 218.6% | $-31,447 (vs do-nothing $-24,055) |
| $47 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.76 | 18/20 | $7,097 | $5,983 | 70% | 77% | +$1,335 | -$30,187 | 220.3% | $-31,332 (vs do-nothing $-23,940) |
| $46 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.16 | 15/20 | $6,943 | $5,867 | 69% | 77% | +$1,226 | -$27,556 | 201.1% | $-29,742 (vs do-nothing $-22,350) |
| $45 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.62 | 10/20 | $6,943 | $5,931 | 69% | 76% | +$1,743 | -$19,911 | 145.3% | $-23,832 (vs do-nothing $-16,440) |
| $46 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 17/20 | $7,286 | $6,184 | 67% | 76% | +$1,108 | -$29,802 | 217.5% | $-31,294 (vs do-nothing $-23,902) |
| $45 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 13/20 | $6,964 | $5,914 | 66% | 74% | +$1,138 | -$24,740 | 180.6% | $-27,620 (vs do-nothing $-20,228) |
| $45 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 15/20 | $6,964 | $5,889 | 65% | 74% | +$791 | -$27,421 | 200.2% | $-29,607 (vs do-nothing $-22,215) |
| $44.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.67 | 13/20 | $7,438 | $6,388 | 64% | 74% | +$1,130 | -$25,169 | 183.7% | $-28,049 (vs do-nothing $-20,657) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.91 | 9/20 | $7,367 | $6,369 | 64% | 73% | +$1,452 | -$18,559 | 135.5% | $-22,827 (vs do-nothing $-15,435) |
| $44 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.90 | 12/20 | $7,457 | $6,420 | 62% | 73% | +$1,161 | -$23,557 | 171.9% | $-26,784 (vs do-nothing $-19,392) |
| $44 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 14/20 | $7,400 | $6,337 | 62% | 73% | +$892 | -$26,363 | 192.4% | $-28,896 (vs do-nothing $-21,504) |
| $43.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 11/20 | $7,071 | $6,047 | 60% | 72% | +$838 | -$22,034 | 160.8% | $-25,608 (vs do-nothing $-18,216) |
| $43 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 13/20 | $7,057 | $6,007 | 58% | 71% | +$249 | -$25,650 | 187.2% | $-28,530 (vs do-nothing $-21,138) |
| $43 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.33 | 7/20 | $6,990 | $6,017 | 58% | 71% | +$1,245 | -$14,840 | 108.3% | $-19,803 (vs do-nothing $-12,411) |
| $43 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 10/20 | $7,179 | $6,167 | 58% | 71% | +$1,065 | -$20,181 | 147.3% | $-24,102 (vs do-nothing $-16,710) |
| $42.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 10/20 | $7,500 | $6,489 | 56% | 70% | +$914 | -$20,531 | 149.9% | $-24,452 (vs do-nothing $-17,060) |
| $42 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 11/20 | $7,150 | $6,126 | 55% | 70% | +$680 | -$21,979 | 160.4% | $-25,553 (vs do-nothing $-18,161) |
| $42 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 10/20 | $7,179 | $6,167 | 54% | 68% | +$93 | -$21,181 | 154.6% | $-25,102 (vs do-nothing $-17,710) |
| $42 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.72 | 6/20 | $6,994 | $6,034 | 52% | 68% | +$892 | -$13,086 | 95.5% | $-18,396 (vs do-nothing $-11,004) |
| $41.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 9/20 | $7,425 | $6,426 | 52% | 68% | +$574 | -$19,063 | 139.1% | $-23,331 (vs do-nothing $-15,939) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.