20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $66.07 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $14,229/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,140/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-50,960 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 20 × $48 | 82% | $7,286 | $1,687 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 14 × $55 | 17 Jul | 7d | 30.9% | 96% | 9% | $280 | $1,200 | -$6,086 | $15,218 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $55 30.9% OTM over spot $42.03 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.25 mid) = $280 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $55.25) 96% EV / mo +$753 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-4.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~1.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,597 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,836 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $66 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.15/sh now → $2.94 mid-life (likely $2.42–$3.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 167 simulated challenges: the $55 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $57 (overshoots $1.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $11 below CC-SS $66.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $55.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,960 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$49,763 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $55): -$15,218 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $63): -$1,806 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,221 (+$32,739 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,217 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,004, the opportunity cost of earning $1,200/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $51 | 17 Jul | 7d | 21.3% | 90% | 21% | $960 | $4,114 | -$3,171 | $29,180 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $51 21.3% OTM over spot $42.03 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.51 mid) = $960 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,114/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $51.51) 91% EV / mo +$2,183 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-3.5] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~3.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,651 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,296 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $62 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.71/sh now → $2.63 mid-life (likely $2.34–$3.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 451 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $53 (overshoots $1.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $15 below CC-SS $66.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.48 collected) or spot ≥ $51.51 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,960 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$49,763 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $51): -$29,180 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,377 (+$20,583 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,217 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,160, the opportunity cost of earning $4,114/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 19.0% | 88% | 26% | $1,102 | $4,723 | -$2,563 | $29,431 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $50 19.0% OTM over spot $42.03 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.60 mid) = $1,102 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,723/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $50.60) 89% EV / mo +$2,241 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.2-3.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~4.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,974 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,748 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $61 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.61/sh now → $2.55 mid-life (likely $2.37–$4.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 521 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $52 (overshoots $1.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $16 below CC-SS $66.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.58 collected) or spot ≥ $50.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,960 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$49,763 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $50): -$29,431 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$301 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,929 (+$20,031 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,217 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,712, the opportunity cost of earning $4,723/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $48 | 17 Jul | 7d | 14.2% | 82% | 27% | $1,700 | $7,286 | — | $34,440 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48 14.2% OTM over spot $42.03 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.88 mid) = $1,700 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,286/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $48.88) 85% EV / mo +$2,687 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.3-4.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~7.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,751 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,109 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $60 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.40/sh now → $2.40 mid-life (likely $2.47–$3.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 815 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $50 (overshoots $1.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $18 below CC-SS $66.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $48.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,960 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$49,763 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48): -$34,440 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,637 (+$15,323 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,217 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,420, the opportunity cost of earning $7,286/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $44 | 17 Jul | 7d | 4.7% | 64% | 76% | $3,438 | $14,734 | +$7,449 | $36,288 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $44 4.7% OTM over spot $42.03 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.94 mid) = $3,438 credit for the 7d cycle → $14,734/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $45.95) 74% EV / mo +$3,267 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.0-4.0] median · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~18.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,426 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 57% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$377 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $55 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.00/sh now → $2.12 mid-life (likely $2.75–$3.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.91/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,718 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $46 (overshoots $1.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $22 below CC-SS $66.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.48/sh (~25% of the $1.91 collected) or spot ≥ $45.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,960 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$49,763 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $44): -$36,288 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $63): -$602 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,087 (+$12,873 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,217 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,870, the opportunity cost of earning $14,734/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 24 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.035 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$49,763 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-7,217
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $48 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 20/20 | $7,286 | $6,146 | 82% | 85% | +$2,687 | -$34,440 | 251.4% | $-35,637 (vs do-nothing $-28,420) |
| $47 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 16/20 | $7,200 | $6,111 | 78% | 82% | +$2,391 | -$28,832 | 210.5% | $-31,233 (vs do-nothing $-24,016) |
| $48 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.69 | 20/20 | $7,243 | $6,103 | 76% | 80% | +$1,912 | -$32,760 | 239.1% | $-33,957 (vs do-nothing $-26,740) |
| $46 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.29 | 13/20 | $7,187 | $6,137 | 74% | 79% | +$2,119 | -$24,414 | 178.2% | $-27,718 (vs do-nothing $-20,501) |
| $47 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.91 | 18/20 | $7,367 | $6,253 | 73% | 79% | +$1,678 | -$30,888 | 225.5% | $-32,687 (vs do-nothing $-25,470) |
| $47 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.76 | 19/20 | $7,491 | $6,364 | 70% | 77% | +$1,508 | -$30,989 | 226.2% | $-32,487 (vs do-nothing $-25,270) |
| $46 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.16 | 16/20 | $7,406 | $6,317 | 70% | 77% | +$1,430 | -$28,656 | 209.2% | $-31,057 (vs do-nothing $-23,840) |
| $45 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.62 | 11/20 | $7,637 | $6,613 | 69% | 77% | +$2,127 | -$21,395 | 156.2% | $-25,301 (vs do-nothing $-18,084) |
| $46 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 17/20 | $7,286 | $6,184 | 68% | 76% | +$1,205 | -$29,019 | 211.8% | $-31,119 (vs do-nothing $-23,902) |
| $45 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 14/20 | $7,500 | $6,437 | 66% | 75% | +$1,346 | -$25,998 | 189.8% | $-29,001 (vs do-nothing $-21,784) |
| $45 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 16/20 | $7,429 | $6,340 | 65% | 74% | +$944 | -$28,512 | 208.1% | $-30,913 (vs do-nothing $-23,696) |
| $44.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.67 | 13/20 | $7,438 | $6,388 | 64% | 74% | +$1,248 | -$24,570 | 179.3% | $-27,874 (vs do-nothing $-20,657) |
| $44 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.91 | 9/20 | $7,367 | $6,369 | 64% | 74% | +$1,634 | -$18,144 | 132.4% | $-22,652 (vs do-nothing $-15,435) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.90 | 12/20 | $7,457 | $6,420 | 62% | 73% | +$1,275 | -$23,004 | 167.9% | $-26,609 (vs do-nothing $-19,392) |
| $44 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 14/20 | $7,400 | $6,337 | 62% | 73% | +$987 | -$25,718 | 187.7% | $-28,721 (vs do-nothing $-21,504) |
| $43.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 12/20 | $7,714 | $6,677 | 60% | 72% | +$1,035 | -$23,484 | 171.4% | $-27,089 (vs do-nothing $-19,872) |
| $43 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 14/20 | $7,600 | $6,537 | 59% | 71% | +$371 | -$26,978 | 196.9% | $-29,981 (vs do-nothing $-22,764) |
| $43 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.33 | 8/20 | $7,989 | $7,003 | 59% | 71% | +$1,582 | -$16,592 | 121.1% | $-21,401 (vs do-nothing $-14,184) |
| $43 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 10/20 | $7,179 | $6,167 | 58% | 71% | +$1,171 | -$19,720 | 143.9% | $-23,927 (vs do-nothing $-16,710) |
| $42.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 10/20 | $7,500 | $6,489 | 56% | 70% | +$1,025 | -$20,070 | 146.5% | $-24,277 (vs do-nothing $-17,060) |
| $42 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 11/20 | $7,150 | $6,126 | 56% | 70% | +$767 | -$21,472 | 156.7% | $-25,378 (vs do-nothing $-18,161) |
| $42 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 10/20 | $7,179 | $6,167 | 54% | 69% | +$209 | -$20,720 | 151.2% | $-24,927 (vs do-nothing $-17,710) |
| $42 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.72 | 7/20 | $8,160 | $7,187 | 53% | 68% | +$1,200 | -$14,945 | 109.1% | $-20,055 (vs do-nothing $-12,838) |
| $41.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 9/20 | $7,425 | $6,426 | 52% | 68% | +$683 | -$18,648 | 136.1% | $-23,156 (vs do-nothing $-15,939) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.