20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $66.11 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $14,057/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,140/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-50,960 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 20 × $48 | 82% | $7,286 | $1,604 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 14 × $55 | 17 Jul | 7d | 30.7% | 95% | 9% | $280 | $1,200 | -$6,086 | $15,272 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $55 30.7% OTM over spot $42.07 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.25 mid) = $280 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $55.25) 96% EV / mo +$745 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-3.9] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~1.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,680 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,802 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $66 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.12/sh now → $2.92 mid-life (likely $2.39–$3.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 166 simulated challenges: the $55 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $57 (overshoots $1.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $11 below CC-SS $66.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $55.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,960 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$49,759 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $55): -$15,272 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $63): -$1,829 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,301 (+$32,659 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,297 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,004, the opportunity cost of earning $1,200/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $52 | 17 Jul | 7d | 23.6% | 92% | 17% | $760 | $3,257 | -$4,029 | $27,457 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $52 23.6% OTM over spot $42.07 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.42 mid) = $760 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,257/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $52.41) 92% EV / mo +$1,735 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.3-4.0] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 47% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~3.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,694 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,604 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $63 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.79/sh now → $2.68 mid-life (likely $2.23–$3.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 379 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $54 (overshoots $1.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $14 below CC-SS $66.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $52.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,960 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$49,759 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $52): -$27,457 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,657 (+$22,303 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,297 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,360, the opportunity cost of earning $3,257/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 18.8% | 88% | 26% | $1,102 | $4,723 | -$2,563 | $29,504 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $50 18.8% OTM over spot $42.07 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.60 mid) = $1,102 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,723/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $50.60) 89% EV / mo +$2,203 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-3.7] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~4.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,936 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,708 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $61 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.58/sh now → $2.53 mid-life (likely $2.38–$3.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 530 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $52 (overshoots $1.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $16 below CC-SS $66.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.58 collected) or spot ≥ $50.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,960 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$49,759 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $50): -$29,504 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$305 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,009 (+$19,951 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,297 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,712, the opportunity cost of earning $4,723/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $48 | 17 Jul | 7d | 14.1% | 82% | 28% | $1,700 | $7,286 | — | $34,517 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48 14.1% OTM over spot $42.07 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.88 mid) = $1,700 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,286/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $48.88) 84% EV / mo +$2,624 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.3-4.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~7.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,656 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,069 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $60 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.37/sh now → $2.38 mid-life (likely $2.44–$3.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 834 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $50 (overshoots $1.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $18 below CC-SS $66.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $48.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,960 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$49,759 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48): -$34,517 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,717 (+$15,243 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,297 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,420, the opportunity cost of earning $7,286/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $44 | 17 Jul | 7d | 4.6% | 64% | 76% | $3,438 | $14,734 | +$7,449 | $36,357 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $44 4.6% OTM over spot $42.07 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.94 mid) = $3,438 credit for the 7d cycle → $14,734/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $45.95) 74% EV / mo +$3,145 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.0-3.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~18.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,131 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$346 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $55 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.97/sh now → $2.10 mid-life (likely $2.73–$3.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.91/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,732 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $46 (overshoots $1.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $22 below CC-SS $66.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.48/sh (~25% of the $1.91 collected) or spot ≥ $45.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,960 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$49,759 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $44): -$36,357 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $63): -$610 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,167 (+$12,793 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,297 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,870, the opportunity cost of earning $14,734/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 24 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.035 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$49,759 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-7,297
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $48 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 20/20 | $7,286 | $6,146 | 82% | 84% | +$2,624 | -$34,517 | 251.9% | $-35,717 (vs do-nothing $-28,420) |
| $47 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 16/20 | $7,200 | $6,111 | 78% | 82% | +$2,329 | -$28,893 | 210.9% | $-31,313 (vs do-nothing $-24,016) |
| $48 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.69 | 20/20 | $7,243 | $6,103 | 76% | 80% | +$1,864 | -$32,837 | 239.7% | $-34,037 (vs do-nothing $-26,740) |
| $46 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.29 | 13/20 | $7,187 | $6,137 | 74% | 79% | +$2,057 | -$24,464 | 178.6% | $-27,798 (vs do-nothing $-20,501) |
| $47 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.91 | 18/20 | $7,367 | $6,253 | 73% | 79% | +$1,630 | -$30,957 | 226.0% | $-32,767 (vs do-nothing $-25,470) |
| $47 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.76 | 18/20 | $7,097 | $5,983 | 70% | 77% | +$1,391 | -$29,427 | 214.8% | $-31,237 (vs do-nothing $-23,940) |
| $46 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.16 | 16/20 | $7,406 | $6,317 | 69% | 77% | +$1,381 | -$28,717 | 209.6% | $-31,137 (vs do-nothing $-23,840) |
| $45 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.62 | 11/20 | $7,637 | $6,613 | 69% | 77% | +$2,064 | -$21,437 | 156.5% | $-25,381 (vs do-nothing $-18,084) |
| $46 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 17/20 | $7,286 | $6,184 | 68% | 76% | +$1,167 | -$29,084 | 212.3% | $-31,199 (vs do-nothing $-23,902) |
| $45 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 14/20 | $7,500 | $6,437 | 66% | 75% | +$1,298 | -$26,052 | 190.2% | $-29,081 (vs do-nothing $-21,784) |
| $45 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 16/20 | $7,429 | $6,340 | 65% | 74% | +$904 | -$28,573 | 208.6% | $-30,993 (vs do-nothing $-23,696) |
| $44.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.67 | 13/20 | $7,438 | $6,388 | 64% | 74% | +$1,201 | -$24,620 | 179.7% | $-27,954 (vs do-nothing $-20,657) |
| $44 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.91 | 9/20 | $7,367 | $6,369 | 64% | 74% | +$1,573 | -$18,178 | 132.7% | $-22,732 (vs do-nothing $-15,435) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.90 | 12/20 | $7,457 | $6,420 | 62% | 73% | +$1,230 | -$23,050 | 168.2% | $-26,689 (vs do-nothing $-19,392) |
| $44 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 14/20 | $7,400 | $6,337 | 62% | 73% | +$949 | -$25,772 | 188.1% | $-28,801 (vs do-nothing $-21,504) |
| $43.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 11/20 | $7,071 | $6,047 | 60% | 72% | +$904 | -$21,569 | 157.4% | $-25,513 (vs do-nothing $-18,216) |
| $43 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 13/20 | $7,057 | $6,007 | 59% | 71% | +$307 | -$25,101 | 183.2% | $-28,435 (vs do-nothing $-21,138) |
| $43 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.33 | 8/20 | $7,989 | $7,003 | 59% | 71% | +$1,519 | -$16,623 | 121.3% | $-21,481 (vs do-nothing $-14,184) |
| $43 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 10/20 | $7,179 | $6,167 | 58% | 71% | +$1,129 | -$19,758 | 144.2% | $-24,007 (vs do-nothing $-16,710) |
| $42.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 10/20 | $7,500 | $6,489 | 56% | 70% | +$981 | -$20,108 | 146.8% | $-24,357 (vs do-nothing $-17,060) |
| $42 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 11/20 | $7,150 | $6,126 | 55% | 70% | +$732 | -$21,514 | 157.0% | $-25,458 (vs do-nothing $-18,161) |
| $42 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 10/20 | $7,179 | $6,167 | 54% | 68% | +$163 | -$20,758 | 151.5% | $-25,007 (vs do-nothing $-17,710) |
| $42 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.72 | 7/20 | $8,160 | $7,187 | 53% | 68% | +$1,137 | -$14,972 | 109.3% | $-20,135 (vs do-nothing $-12,838) |
| $41.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 9/20 | $7,425 | $6,426 | 52% | 68% | +$640 | -$18,682 | 136.4% | $-23,236 (vs do-nothing $-15,939) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.