20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $67.09 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $15,086/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,260/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-55,690 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 20 × $46 | 80% | $7,886 | $1,906 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $54 | 17 Jul | 7d | 32.9% | 96% | 9% | $304 | $1,303 | -$6,583 | $24,568 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $54 32.9% OTM over spot $40.63 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid) = $304 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,303/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $54) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $54.17) 96% EV / mo +$723 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.2-4.1] median · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~1.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,357 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,517 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $63 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.33/sh now → $3.06 mid-life (likely $2.33–$4.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 137 simulated challenges: the $54 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $56 (overshoots $1.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $54 is $13 below CC-SS $67.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $54.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $54)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,690 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,509 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $54): -$24,568 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$408 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,157 (+$29,533 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,342 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,815, the opportunity cost of earning $1,303/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 23.1% | 91% | 19% | $720 | $3,086 | -$4,800 | $33,462 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $50 23.1% OTM over spot $40.63 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.38 mid) = $720 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,086/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $50.38) 91% EV / mo +$1,322 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.1-4.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo) · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 43% without) · ~3.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,841 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,744 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $59 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.86/sh now → $2.73 mid-life (likely $2.29–$4.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 363 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $52 (overshoots $1.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $17 below CC-SS $67.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.36 collected) or spot ≥ $50.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,690 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,509 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $50): -$33,462 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,642 (+$21,048 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,342 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,300, the opportunity cost of earning $3,086/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 20 × $48 | 17 Jul | 7d | 18.1% | 87% | 28% | $1,200 | $5,143 | -$2,743 | $36,982 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48 18.1% OTM over spot $40.63 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.62 mid) = $1,200 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,143/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $48.62) 88% EV / mo +$2,343 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.3-4.5] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 47% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~5.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,741 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,944 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.64/sh now → $2.57 mid-life (likely $2.40–$4.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 592 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $50 (overshoots $1.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $19 below CC-SS $67.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $48.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,690 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,509 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48): -$36,982 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,162 (+$17,528 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,342 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,820, the opportunity cost of earning $5,143/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $46 | 17 Jul | 7d | 13.2% | 80% | 29% | $1,840 | $7,886 | — | $40,342 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $46 13.2% OTM over spot $40.63 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.95 mid) = $1,840 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,886/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $46.95) 84% EV / mo +$2,860 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.4-4.2] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~8.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,249 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,993 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.42/sh now → $2.42 mid-life (likely $2.44–$4.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 866 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $48 (overshoots $1.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $21 below CC-SS $67.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.92 collected) or spot ≥ $46.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,690 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,509 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $46): -$40,342 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,522 (+$14,168 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,342 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,180, the opportunity cost of earning $7,886/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 17 × $42 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.4% | 61% | 82% | $3,587 | $15,373 | +$7,487 | $39,067 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $42 3.4% OTM over spot $40.63 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.17 mid) = $3,587 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,373/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $44.16) 73% EV / mo +$3,457 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.2-4.2] median · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~23.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,866 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$14 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.99/sh now → $2.12 mid-life (likely $2.80–$4.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,911 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $44 (overshoots $1.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $25 below CC-SS $67.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.53/sh (~25% of the $2.11 collected) or spot ≥ $44.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,690 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,509 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $42): -$39,067 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $63): -$1,224 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,472 (+$14,218 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,342 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,130, the opportunity cost of earning $15,373/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 25 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.030 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$54,509 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-9,342
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.92 | 20/20 | $7,886 | $6,626 | 80% | 84% | +$2,860 | -$40,342 | 294.5% | $-41,522 (vs do-nothing $-32,180) |
| $45 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.17 | 16/20 | $8,023 | $6,771 | 76% | 81% | +$2,730 | -$33,473 | 244.3% | $-36,286 (vs do-nothing $-26,944) |
| $45.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.79 | 20/20 | $7,671 | $6,411 | 73% | 81% | +$1,721 | -$39,602 | 289.1% | $-40,782 (vs do-nothing $-31,440) |
| $44 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.37 | 13/20 | $7,633 | $6,388 | 72% | 78% | +$1,999 | -$28,237 | 206.1% | $-32,274 (vs do-nothing $-22,932) |
| $45 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.99 | 18/20 | $7,676 | $6,420 | 72% | 78% | +$1,832 | -$36,181 | 264.1% | $-38,178 (vs do-nothing $-28,836) |
| $44.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.09 | 17/20 | $7,614 | $6,360 | 70% | 77% | +$1,597 | -$34,851 | 254.4% | $-37,256 (vs do-nothing $-27,914) |
| $45 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.85 | 19/20 | $7,736 | $6,478 | 69% | 77% | +$1,649 | -$36,557 | 266.8% | $-38,146 (vs do-nothing $-28,804) |
| $44 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.29 | 16/20 | $7,851 | $6,600 | 68% | 76% | +$1,684 | -$33,281 | 242.9% | $-36,094 (vs do-nothing $-26,752) |
| $43 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.72 | 11/20 | $8,109 | $6,868 | 67% | 75% | +$2,004 | -$24,608 | 179.6% | $-29,461 (vs do-nothing $-20,119) |
| $44 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 18/20 | $7,971 | $6,716 | 66% | 75% | +$1,391 | -$35,983 | 262.7% | $-37,980 (vs do-nothing $-28,638) |
| $43.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.46 | 15/20 | $7,907 | $6,658 | 66% | 75% | +$1,617 | -$31,696 | 231.4% | $-34,917 (vs do-nothing $-25,575) |
| $43 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.64 | 14/20 | $7,920 | $6,673 | 64% | 74% | +$1,540 | -$30,031 | 219.2% | $-33,660 (vs do-nothing $-24,318) |
| $43 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 16/20 | $7,886 | $6,634 | 63% | 74% | +$1,230 | -$33,025 | 241.1% | $-35,838 (vs do-nothing $-26,496) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $42.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.81 | 13/20 | $7,828 | $6,583 | 62% | 73% | +$1,398 | -$28,315 | 206.7% | $-32,352 (vs do-nothing $-23,010) |
| $42 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.11 | 9/20 | $8,139 | $6,902 | 61% | 73% | +$1,830 | -$20,683 | 151.0% | $-26,352 (vs do-nothing $-17,010) |
| $42 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 12/20 | $8,100 | $6,857 | 60% | 72% | +$1,666 | -$26,329 | 192.2% | $-30,774 (vs do-nothing $-21,432) |
| $42 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 14/20 | $7,600 | $6,353 | 60% | 72% | +$993 | -$29,807 | 217.6% | $-33,436 (vs do-nothing $-24,094) |
| $41.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 11/20 | $7,543 | $6,302 | 58% | 71% | +$1,157 | -$24,630 | 179.8% | $-29,483 (vs do-nothing $-20,141) |
| $41 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 13/20 | $7,893 | $6,648 | 57% | 71% | +$957 | -$28,393 | 207.2% | $-32,430 (vs do-nothing $-23,088) |
| $41 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 11/20 | $8,014 | $6,774 | 56% | 70% | +$1,023 | -$24,960 | 182.2% | $-29,813 (vs do-nothing $-20,471) |
| $41 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.54 | 7/20 | $7,620 | $6,388 | 55% | 70% | +$1,478 | -$16,486 | 120.3% | $-22,971 (vs do-nothing $-13,629) |
| $40.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 10/20 | $7,821 | $6,583 | 54% | 69% | +$978 | -$22,941 | 167.5% | $-28,202 (vs do-nothing $-18,860) |
| $40 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 12/20 | $8,143 | $6,900 | 53% | 69% | +$929 | -$26,809 | 195.7% | $-31,254 (vs do-nothing $-21,912) |
| $40 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 10/20 | $8,357 | $7,119 | 52% | 68% | +$998 | -$23,191 | 169.3% | $-28,452 (vs do-nothing $-19,110) |
| $40 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 6/20 | $7,714 | $6,484 | 49% | 67% | +$1,210 | -$14,454 | 105.5% | $-21,348 (vs do-nothing $-12,006) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.