20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $67.15 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $15,214/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,260/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-55,540 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 20 × $46 | 80% | $7,714 | $1,859 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $54 | 17 Jul | 7d | 32.4% | 96% | 9% | $304 | $1,303 | -$6,411 | $24,690 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $54 32.4% OTM over spot $40.80 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid) = $304 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,303/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $54) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $54.17) 96% EV / mo +$743 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.2-4.5] median · 47% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~1.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,089 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,182 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $63 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.08/sh now → $2.89 mid-life (likely $2.14–$3.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 150 simulated challenges: the $54 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $56 (overshoots $1.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $54 is $13 below CC-SS $67.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $54.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $54)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,540 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,449 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $54): -$24,690 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$403 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,185 (+$29,355 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,161 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,024, the opportunity cost of earning $1,303/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 22.5% | 91% | 19% | $740 | $3,171 | -$4,543 | $33,569 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $50 22.5% OTM over spot $40.80 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.40 mid) = $740 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,171/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $50.40) 91% EV / mo +$1,417 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.1-4.4] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~3.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,478 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,408 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $60 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.64/sh now → $2.57 mid-life (likely $2.23–$3.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 378 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $52 (overshoots $1.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $17 below CC-SS $67.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $50.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,540 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,449 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $50): -$33,569 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,661 (+$20,879 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,161 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,500, the opportunity cost of earning $3,171/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 17 × $47 | 17 Jul | 7d | 15.2% | 83% | 35% | $1,224 | $5,246 | -$2,469 | $33,039 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $47 15.2% OTM over spot $40.80 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.74 mid) = $1,224 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,246/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $47.74) 85% EV / mo +$1,829 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.5-4.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.5 mo) · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~7.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,132 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,771 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.32/sh now → $2.35 mid-life (likely $2.37–$3.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 758 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $49 (overshoots $1.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $20 below CC-SS $67.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.72 collected) or spot ≥ $47.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,540 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,449 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $47): -$33,039 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $63): -$1,210 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,341 (+$20,199 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,161 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,180, the opportunity cost of earning $5,246/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $46 | 17 Jul | 7d | 12.7% | 80% | 30% | $1,800 | $7,714 | — | $40,509 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $46 12.7% OTM over spot $40.80 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.93 mid) = $1,800 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,714/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $46.92) 83% EV / mo +$2,443 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.4-4.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.8 mo) · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~8.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,947 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,754 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.22/sh now → $2.28 mid-life (likely $2.39–$3.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 900 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $48 (overshoots $1.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $21 below CC-SS $67.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.90 collected) or spot ≥ $46.92 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,540 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,449 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $46): -$40,509 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,601 (+$13,939 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,161 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,440, the opportunity cost of earning $7,714/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 17 × $42 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.9% | 60% | 84% | $3,553 | $15,227 | +$7,513 | $39,210 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $42 2.9% OTM over spot $40.80 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.13 mid) = $3,553 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,227/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $44.13) 72% EV / mo +$2,897 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.4] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~24.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,833 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 66% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$160 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.82/sh now → $2.00 mid-life (likely $2.67–$3.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,977 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $44 (overshoots $1.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $25 below CC-SS $67.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.52/sh (~25% of the $2.09 collected) or spot ≥ $44.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,540 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,449 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $42): -$39,210 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $63): -$1,210 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,512 (+$14,028 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,161 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,351, the opportunity cost of earning $15,227/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 25 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.033 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$54,449 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-9,161
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.90 | 20/20 | $7,714 | $6,454 | 80% | 83% | +$2,443 | -$40,509 | 295.7% | $-41,601 (vs do-nothing $-32,440) |
| $45 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.12 | 16/20 | $7,680 | $6,523 | 76% | 80% | +$2,180 | -$33,655 | 245.7% | $-36,361 (vs do-nothing $-27,200) |
| $45.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.88 | 19/20 | $7,654 | $6,420 | 73% | 79% | +$1,873 | -$37,572 | 274.2% | $-39,067 (vs do-nothing $-29,906) |
| $44 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.39 | 13/20 | $7,744 | $6,664 | 71% | 77% | +$1,958 | -$28,294 | 206.5% | $-32,210 (vs do-nothing $-23,049) |
| $45 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.97 | 19/20 | $8,021 | $6,786 | 71% | 78% | +$1,711 | -$38,351 | 279.9% | $-39,846 (vs do-nothing $-30,685) |
| $44.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.12 | 17/20 | $7,723 | $6,540 | 69% | 77% | +$1,566 | -$34,909 | 254.8% | $-37,211 (vs do-nothing $-28,050) |
| $45 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.88 | 19/20 | $7,817 | $6,583 | 69% | 77% | +$1,608 | -$36,622 | 267.3% | $-38,117 (vs do-nothing $-28,956) |
| $44 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.28 | 16/20 | $7,817 | $6,660 | 67% | 76% | +$1,505 | -$33,399 | 243.8% | $-36,105 (vs do-nothing $-26,944) |
| $44 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 17/20 | $7,650 | $6,467 | 66% | 75% | +$1,308 | -$34,008 | 248.2% | $-36,310 (vs do-nothing $-27,149) |
| $43 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.71 | 11/20 | $8,061 | $7,033 | 66% | 74% | +$1,778 | -$24,689 | 180.2% | $-29,412 (vs do-nothing $-20,251) |
| $43.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.46 | 15/20 | $7,907 | $6,776 | 66% | 75% | +$1,468 | -$31,792 | 232.1% | $-34,901 (vs do-nothing $-25,740) |
| $43 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.71 | 14/20 | $8,130 | $7,024 | 64% | 74% | +$1,598 | -$30,022 | 219.1% | $-33,535 (vs do-nothing $-24,374) |
| $43 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 15/20 | $7,607 | $6,476 | 63% | 73% | +$1,238 | -$30,907 | 225.6% | $-34,016 (vs do-nothing $-24,855) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $42.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.91 | 13/20 | $8,106 | $7,026 | 62% | 73% | +$1,522 | -$28,268 | 206.3% | $-32,184 (vs do-nothing $-23,023) |
| $42 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.09 | 9/20 | $8,061 | $7,084 | 60% | 72% | +$1,534 | -$20,758 | 151.5% | $-26,288 (vs do-nothing $-17,127) |
| $42 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 15/20 | $8,143 | $7,011 | 60% | 72% | +$917 | -$32,032 | 233.8% | $-35,141 (vs do-nothing $-25,980) |
| $42 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 12/20 | $7,971 | $6,917 | 60% | 72% | +$1,382 | -$26,465 | 193.2% | $-30,785 (vs do-nothing $-21,624) |
| $41.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 11/20 | $7,779 | $6,750 | 57% | 71% | +$1,238 | -$24,590 | 179.5% | $-29,313 (vs do-nothing $-20,152) |
| $41 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 13/20 | $8,079 | $6,999 | 56% | 70% | +$999 | -$28,346 | 206.9% | $-32,262 (vs do-nothing $-23,101) |
| $41 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 10/20 | $7,607 | $6,604 | 55% | 70% | +$1,179 | -$22,605 | 165.0% | $-27,731 (vs do-nothing $-18,570) |
| $41 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.52 | 8/20 | $8,640 | $7,689 | 54% | 69% | +$1,359 | -$18,908 | 138.0% | $-24,841 (vs do-nothing $-15,680) |
| $40.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 10/20 | $8,143 | $7,140 | 53% | 69% | +$1,203 | -$22,855 | 166.8% | $-27,981 (vs do-nothing $-18,820) |
| $40 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 12/20 | $8,229 | $7,174 | 53% | 69% | +$868 | -$26,825 | 195.8% | $-31,145 (vs do-nothing $-21,984) |
| $40 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 9/20 | $7,811 | $6,834 | 51% | 68% | +$1,078 | -$20,794 | 151.8% | $-26,324 (vs do-nothing $-17,163) |
| $40 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 6/20 | $7,714 | $6,814 | 48% | 66% | +$951 | -$14,493 | 105.8% | $-21,233 (vs do-nothing $-12,072) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.