20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $67.12 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $15,000/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,251/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-55,540 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 20 × $46 | 80% | $7,714 | $1,890 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 18 × $53 | 17 Jul | 7d | 30.1% | 95% | 10% | $306 | $1,311 | -$6,403 | $25,103 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $53 30.1% OTM over spot $40.75 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.19 mid) = $306 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,311/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $53) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $53.19) 96% EV / mo +$733 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.2-4.1] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.6 mo) · 43% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~1.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,494 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,850 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $62 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.05/sh now → $2.86 mid-life (likely $2.06–$3.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 166 simulated challenges: the $53 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $55 (overshoots $1.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $53 is $14 below CC-SS $67.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $53.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $53)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,540 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,367 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $53): -$25,103 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $63): -$801 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,077 (+$28,463 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,892, the opportunity cost of earning $1,311/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 22.7% | 91% | 18% | $740 | $3,171 | -$4,543 | $33,492 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $50 22.7% OTM over spot $40.75 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.38 mid) = $740 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,171/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $50.38) 92% EV / mo +$1,646 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.2-4.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.5 mo) · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 43% without) · ~3.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,585 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,512 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $59 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.71/sh now → $2.63 mid-life (likely $2.21–$3.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 364 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $52 (overshoots $1.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $17 below CC-SS $67.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $50.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,540 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,367 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $50): -$33,492 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,665 (+$20,875 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,480, the opportunity cost of earning $3,171/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 17 × $47 | 17 Jul | 7d | 15.3% | 84% | 34% | $1,207 | $5,173 | -$2,541 | $32,990 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $47 15.3% OTM over spot $40.75 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.73 mid) = $1,207 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,173/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $47.73) 86% EV / mo +$1,930 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.5-4.7] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~7.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,362 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,867 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.39/sh now → $2.40 mid-life (likely $2.42–$3.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 744 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $49 (overshoots $1.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $20 below CC-SS $67.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.71 collected) or spot ≥ $47.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,540 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,367 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $47): -$32,990 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $63): -$1,202 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,365 (+$20,175 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,180, the opportunity cost of earning $5,173/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $46 | 17 Jul | 7d | 12.9% | 80% | 29% | $1,800 | $7,714 | — | $40,432 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $46 12.9% OTM over spot $40.75 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.92 mid) = $1,800 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,714/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $46.92) 83% EV / mo +$2,623 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.5-4.2] median · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~8.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,032 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,844 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.28/sh now → $2.32 mid-life (likely $2.38–$3.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 878 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $48 (overshoots $1.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $21 below CC-SS $67.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.90 collected) or spot ≥ $46.92 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,540 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,367 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $46): -$40,432 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,605 (+$13,935 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,420, the opportunity cost of earning $7,714/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 17 × $42 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.1% | 61% | 84% | $3,519 | $15,081 | +$7,367 | $39,178 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $42 3.1% OTM over spot $40.75 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.12 mid) = $3,519 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,081/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $44.12) 72% EV / mo +$2,954 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.4] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 39% without) · ~23.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,445 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$61 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.88/sh now → $2.03 mid-life (likely $2.71–$4.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,947 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $44 (overshoots $1.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $25 below CC-SS $67.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.52/sh (~25% of the $2.07 collected) or spot ≥ $44.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.12, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,540 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,367 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $42): -$39,178 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $63): -$1,202 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,553 (+$13,987 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,368, the opportunity cost of earning $15,081/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 25 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.031 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$54,367 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-9,185
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.90 | 20/20 | $7,714 | $6,463 | 80% | 83% | +$2,623 | -$40,432 | 295.1% | $-41,605 (vs do-nothing $-32,420) |
| $45 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.09 | 17/20 | $7,941 | $6,761 | 76% | 80% | +$2,235 | -$35,744 | 260.9% | $-38,119 (vs do-nothing $-28,934) |
| $45.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.82 | 20/20 | $7,800 | $6,549 | 73% | 78% | +$1,611 | -$39,592 | 289.0% | $-40,765 (vs do-nothing $-31,580) |
| $44 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.36 | 13/20 | $7,577 | $6,491 | 71% | 78% | +$1,894 | -$28,283 | 206.4% | $-32,260 (vs do-nothing $-23,075) |
| $45 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.97 | 18/20 | $7,599 | $6,394 | 71% | 77% | +$1,527 | -$36,263 | 264.7% | $-38,237 (vs do-nothing $-29,052) |
| $44.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.13 | 17/20 | $7,759 | $6,579 | 69% | 76% | +$1,516 | -$34,826 | 254.2% | $-37,201 (vs do-nothing $-28,016) |
| $45 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.85 | 19/20 | $7,736 | $6,508 | 69% | 77% | +$1,684 | -$36,606 | 267.2% | $-38,179 (vs do-nothing $-28,994) |
| $44 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.27 | 16/20 | $7,783 | $6,626 | 67% | 75% | +$1,393 | -$33,354 | 243.5% | $-36,129 (vs do-nothing $-26,944) |
| $43 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.72 | 11/20 | $8,109 | $7,069 | 66% | 75% | +$1,925 | -$24,636 | 179.8% | $-29,414 (vs do-nothing $-20,229) |
| $44 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 17/20 | $7,529 | $6,348 | 66% | 75% | +$1,358 | -$34,027 | 248.4% | $-36,402 (vs do-nothing $-27,217) |
| $43.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.48 | 15/20 | $7,971 | $6,838 | 66% | 74% | +$1,466 | -$31,704 | 231.4% | $-34,880 (vs do-nothing $-25,695) |
| $43 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.68 | 14/20 | $8,040 | $6,930 | 64% | 74% | +$1,455 | -$30,011 | 219.1% | $-33,587 (vs do-nothing $-24,402) |
| $43 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 15/20 | $7,500 | $6,366 | 63% | 74% | +$1,313 | -$30,924 | 225.7% | $-34,100 (vs do-nothing $-24,915) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $42.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.82 | 13/20 | $7,856 | $6,769 | 62% | 73% | +$1,233 | -$28,335 | 206.8% | $-32,312 (vs do-nothing $-23,127) |
| $42 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.07 | 9/20 | $7,984 | $6,992 | 61% | 72% | +$1,564 | -$20,742 | 151.4% | $-26,321 (vs do-nothing $-17,136) |
| $42 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 14/20 | $7,700 | $6,590 | 60% | 72% | +$1,158 | -$29,773 | 217.3% | $-33,349 (vs do-nothing $-24,164) |
| $42 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 12/20 | $7,714 | $6,651 | 60% | 71% | +$1,102 | -$26,539 | 193.7% | $-30,917 (vs do-nothing $-21,732) |
| $41.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 11/20 | $7,661 | $6,621 | 58% | 71% | +$1,114 | -$24,603 | 179.6% | $-29,381 (vs do-nothing $-20,196) |
| $41 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 13/20 | $7,986 | $6,899 | 56% | 70% | +$1,126 | -$28,361 | 207.0% | $-32,338 (vs do-nothing $-23,153) |
| $41 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 11/20 | $8,132 | $7,093 | 56% | 70% | +$1,071 | -$24,933 | 182.0% | $-29,711 (vs do-nothing $-20,526) |
| $41 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 8/20 | $8,571 | $7,603 | 55% | 69% | +$1,447 | -$18,893 | 137.9% | $-24,873 (vs do-nothing $-15,688) |
| $40.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 10/20 | $8,036 | $7,020 | 53% | 69% | +$1,121 | -$22,866 | 166.9% | $-28,045 (vs do-nothing $-18,860) |
| $40 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 11/20 | $7,543 | $6,504 | 53% | 69% | +$1,010 | -$24,548 | 179.2% | $-29,326 (vs do-nothing $-20,141) |
| $40 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 9/20 | $7,521 | $6,529 | 51% | 68% | +$829 | -$20,895 | 152.5% | $-26,474 (vs do-nothing $-17,289) |
| $40 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 6/20 | $7,714 | $6,793 | 49% | 67% | +$1,066 | -$14,470 | 105.6% | $-21,251 (vs do-nothing $-12,066) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.