20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $67.34 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $16,223/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,287/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-56,100 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 20 × $46 | 83% | $8,500 | $2,237 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 20 × $53 | 17 Jul | 6d | 30.1% | 97% | 6% | $260 | $1,300 | -$7,200 | $28,420 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $53 30.1% OTM over spot $40.73 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.16 mid) = $260 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $53) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $53.16) 97% EV / mo +$962 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.5-4.2] median · 41% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~1.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,576 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,593 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $62 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.14/sh now → $2.93 mid-life (likely $2.17–$3.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 113 simulated challenges: the $53 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $55 (overshoots $1.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $53 is $14 below CC-SS $67.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $53.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $53)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,913 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $53): -$28,420 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,607 (+$26,493 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,667 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,940, the opportunity cost of earning $1,300/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $49 | 17 Jul | 6d | 20.3% | 92% | 17% | $800 | $4,000 | -$4,500 | $35,880 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $49 20.3% OTM over spot $40.73 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.42 mid) = $800 credit for the 6d cycle → $4,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $49.42) 93% EV / mo +$2,613 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.4-3.8] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~3.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,277 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,400 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.68/sh now → $2.60 mid-life (likely $2.25–$3.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 348 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $51 (overshoots $1.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49 is $18 below CC-SS $67.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $49.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $49)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,913 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $49): -$35,880 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,067 (+$19,033 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,667 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,400, the opportunity cost of earning $4,000/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 17 × $47 | 17 Jul | 6d | 15.4% | 86% | 28% | $1,122 | $5,610 | -$2,890 | $33,456 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $47 15.4% OTM over spot $40.73 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.69 mid) = $1,122 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,610/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $47.69) 89% EV / mo +$3,204 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.5-4.4] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.9 mo) · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~6.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,043 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,031 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.45/sh now → $2.44 mid-life (likely $2.24–$3.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.66/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 646 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $49 (overshoots $1.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $20 below CC-SS $67.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.66 collected) or spot ≥ $47.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,913 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $47): -$33,456 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $63): -$1,272 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,915 (+$20,185 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,667 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,248, the opportunity cost of earning $5,610/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $46 | 17 Jul | 6d | 12.9% | 83% | 26% | $1,700 | $8,500 | — | $40,980 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $46 12.9% OTM over spot $40.73 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.89 mid) = $1,700 credit for the 6d cycle → $8,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $46.88) 86% EV / mo +$4,494 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.3-4.2] median · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~8.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,777 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,033 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.35/sh now → $2.37 mid-life (likely $2.42–$3.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 794 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $48 (overshoots $1.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $21 below CC-SS $67.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $46.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,913 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $46): -$40,980 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,167 (+$13,933 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,667 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,500, the opportunity cost of earning $8,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $43 | 17 Jul | 6d | 5.6% | 68% | 68% | $3,268 | $16,340 | +$7,840 | $42,978 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $43 5.6% OTM over spot $40.73 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.75 mid) = $3,268 credit for the 6d cycle → $16,340/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $44.74) 77% EV / mo +$6,348 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-3.8] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~17.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $20,805 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 51% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$803 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.03/sh now → $2.14 mid-life (likely $2.58–$3.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,519 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $45 (overshoots $1.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $24 below CC-SS $67.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.43/sh (~25% of the $1.72 collected) or spot ≥ $44.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,913 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $43): -$42,978 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$424 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,589 (+$11,511 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,667 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,922, the opportunity cost of earning $16,340/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 25 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.032 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$54,913 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-9,667
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 20/20 | $8,500 | $7,213 | 83% | 86% | +$4,494 | -$40,980 | 299.1% | $-42,167 (vs do-nothing $-32,500) |
| $45 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.12 | 15/20 | $8,400 | $7,228 | 78% | 83% | +$4,195 | -$31,830 | 232.3% | $-35,137 (vs do-nothing $-25,470) |
| $45.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.81 | 20/20 | $8,354 | $7,067 | 74% | 80% | +$2,700 | -$40,060 | 292.4% | $-41,247 (vs do-nothing $-31,580) |
| $44 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.36 | 12/20 | $8,160 | $7,058 | 73% | 80% | +$3,515 | -$26,376 | 192.5% | $-30,955 (vs do-nothing $-21,288) |
| $45 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.04 | 18/20 | $8,474 | $7,233 | 72% | 78% | +$2,577 | -$36,540 | 266.7% | $-38,575 (vs do-nothing $-28,908) |
| $44.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.13 | 17/20 | $8,356 | $7,138 | 70% | 77% | +$2,255 | -$35,207 | 257.0% | $-37,666 (vs do-nothing $-27,999) |
| $45 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.92 | 19/20 | $8,322 | $7,058 | 69% | 77% | +$2,234 | -$36,898 | 269.3% | $-38,509 (vs do-nothing $-28,842) |
| $44 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.30 | 16/20 | $8,492 | $7,298 | 68% | 76% | +$2,211 | -$33,664 | 245.7% | $-36,547 (vs do-nothing $-26,880) |
| $43 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.72 | 10/20 | $8,600 | $7,544 | 68% | 77% | +$3,341 | -$22,620 | 165.1% | $-28,047 (vs do-nothing $-18,380) |
| $44 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 18/20 | $8,370 | $7,129 | 66% | 75% | +$1,726 | -$36,432 | 265.9% | $-38,467 (vs do-nothing $-28,800) |
| $43.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.48 | 15/20 | $8,585 | $7,413 | 66% | 75% | +$2,152 | -$32,040 | 233.9% | $-35,347 (vs do-nothing $-25,680) |
| $43 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.67 | 14/20 | $8,626 | $7,478 | 64% | 74% | +$2,078 | -$30,338 | 221.4% | $-34,069 (vs do-nothing $-24,402) |
| $43 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 15/20 | $8,212 | $7,041 | 63% | 74% | +$1,859 | -$31,035 | 226.5% | $-34,342 (vs do-nothing $-24,675) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $42.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.87 | 13/20 | $8,610 | $7,485 | 62% | 73% | +$1,988 | -$28,561 | 208.5% | $-32,716 (vs do-nothing $-23,049) |
| $42 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.10 | 8/20 | $8,400 | $7,390 | 61% | 74% | +$2,788 | -$18,592 | 135.7% | $-24,867 (vs do-nothing $-15,200) |
| $42 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 12/20 | $8,446 | $7,344 | 60% | 72% | +$1,801 | -$26,748 | 195.2% | $-31,327 (vs do-nothing $-21,660) |
| $42 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 14/20 | $8,610 | $7,462 | 60% | 72% | +$1,832 | -$29,736 | 217.1% | $-33,467 (vs do-nothing $-23,800) |
| $41.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 11/20 | $8,123 | $7,044 | 58% | 71% | +$1,554 | -$24,904 | 181.8% | $-29,907 (vs do-nothing $-20,240) |
| $41 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 13/20 | $8,775 | $7,650 | 56% | 71% | +$1,610 | -$28,392 | 207.2% | $-32,547 (vs do-nothing $-22,880) |
| $41 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 11/20 | $8,885 | $7,805 | 55% | 70% | +$1,733 | -$25,124 | 183.4% | $-30,127 (vs do-nothing $-20,460) |
| $41 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.55 | 7/20 | $8,925 | $7,938 | 55% | 71% | +$2,504 | -$16,653 | 121.6% | $-23,352 (vs do-nothing $-13,685) |
| $40.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 10/20 | $8,654 | $7,598 | 53% | 70% | +$1,591 | -$23,090 | 168.5% | $-28,517 (vs do-nothing $-18,850) |
| $40 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 11/20 | $8,250 | $7,171 | 53% | 70% | +$1,379 | -$24,574 | 179.4% | $-29,577 (vs do-nothing $-19,910) |
| $40 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 9/20 | $8,204 | $7,171 | 51% | 69% | +$1,312 | -$21,051 | 153.7% | $-26,902 (vs do-nothing $-17,235) |
| $40 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 6/20 | $9,150 | $8,186 | 48% | 68% | +$2,099 | -$14,574 | 106.4% | $-21,697 (vs do-nothing $-12,030) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.