20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $66.93 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $16,246/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,322/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-53,440 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 18 × $46 | 79% | $8,460 | $2,250 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $53 | 17 Jul | 6d | 27.5% | 97% | 7% | $266 | $1,330 | -$7,130 | $26,196 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $53 27.5% OTM over spot $41.58 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.16 mid) = $266 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,330/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $53) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $53.16) 97% EV / mo +$941 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.4-4.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~1.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,334 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,699 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $62 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.69/sh now → $2.61 mid-life (likely $2.10–$3.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 136 simulated challenges: the $53 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $54 (overshoots $1.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $53 is $14 below CC-SS $66.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $53.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $53)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,440 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,418 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $53): -$26,196 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$381 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,598 (+$25,842 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,636 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,962, the opportunity cost of earning $1,330/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 20.3% | 92% | 16% | $660 | $3,300 | -$5,160 | $33,194 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $50 20.3% OTM over spot $41.58 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.34 mid) = $660 credit for the 6d cycle → $3,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $50.34) 93% EV / mo +$2,034 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.5-4.6] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~3.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,218 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,125 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $59 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.38/sh now → $2.39 mid-life (likely $2.09–$3.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 313 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $52 (overshoots $1.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $17 below CC-SS $66.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $50.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,440 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,418 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $50): -$33,194 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,216 (+$19,224 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,636 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,580, the opportunity cost of earning $3,300/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 20 × $48 | 17 Jul | 6d | 15.4% | 87% | 27% | $1,120 | $5,600 | -$2,860 | $36,734 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48 15.4% OTM over spot $41.58 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.57 mid) = $1,120 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $48.58) 89% EV / mo +$2,943 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.2-4.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.5 mo) · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~6.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,196 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,381 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.18/sh now → $2.25 mid-life (likely $2.06–$3.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 589 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $49 (overshoots $1.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $19 below CC-SS $66.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.56 collected) or spot ≥ $48.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,440 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,418 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48): -$36,734 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,756 (+$15,684 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,636 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,120, the opportunity cost of earning $5,600/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $46 | 17 Jul | 6d | 10.6% | 79% | 33% | $1,692 | $8,460 | — | $35,977 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $46 10.6% OTM over spot $41.58 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.95 mid) = $1,692 credit for the 6d cycle → $8,460/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $46.95) 83% EV / mo +$3,644 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.3-4.3] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~10.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,110 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,110 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.99/sh now → $2.11 mid-life (likely $2.25–$3.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 980 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $48 (overshoots $1.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $21 below CC-SS $66.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.94 collected) or spot ≥ $46.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,440 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,418 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $46): -$35,977 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $63): -$761 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,760 (+$15,680 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,636 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,124, the opportunity cost of earning $8,460/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $43 | 17 Jul | 6d | 3.4% | 62% | 79% | $3,330 | $16,650 | +$8,190 | $39,739 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $43 3.4% OTM over spot $41.58 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.90 mid) = $3,330 credit for the 6d cycle → $16,650/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $44.90) 73% EV / mo +$4,462 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.3-4.1] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.6 mo) · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~22.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $19,395 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 59% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$112 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.70/sh now → $1.91 mid-life (likely $2.54–$3.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,781 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $45 (overshoots $1.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $24 below CC-SS $66.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.46/sh (~25% of the $1.85 collected) or spot ≥ $44.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,440 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,418 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $43): -$39,739 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $63): -$761 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,522 (+$11,918 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,636 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,886, the opportunity cost of earning $16,650/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 23 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.034 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$52,418 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-8,636
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.94 | 18/20 | $8,460 | $7,194 | 79% | 83% | +$3,644 | -$35,977 | 262.6% | $-37,760 (vs do-nothing $-29,124) |
| $45 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.19 | 14/20 | $8,330 | $7,174 | 74% | 80% | +$3,132 | -$29,032 | 211.9% | $-32,338 (vs do-nothing $-23,702) |
| $46 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.88 | 19/20 | $8,243 | $6,949 | 72% | 79% | +$2,286 | -$36,190 | 264.2% | $-37,592 (vs do-nothing $-28,956) |
| $45.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.02 | 18/20 | $8,391 | $7,124 | 70% | 77% | +$2,173 | -$34,933 | 255.0% | $-36,716 (vs do-nothing $-28,080) |
| $46 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.78 | 20/20 | $8,340 | $7,018 | 69% | 77% | +$1,847 | -$36,294 | 264.9% | $-37,316 (vs do-nothing $-28,680) |
| $45 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.18 | 17/20 | $8,552 | $7,314 | 69% | 76% | +$2,094 | -$33,570 | 245.0% | $-35,734 (vs do-nothing $-27,098) |
| $44 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.47 | 12/20 | $8,820 | $7,720 | 68% | 77% | +$2,745 | -$25,749 | 187.9% | $-29,816 (vs do-nothing $-21,180) |
| $44.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.37 | 15/20 | $8,204 | $7,021 | 67% | 75% | +$1,947 | -$30,086 | 219.6% | $-33,011 (vs do-nothing $-24,375) |
| $45 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 18/20 | $8,505 | $7,239 | 67% | 75% | +$1,812 | -$33,799 | 246.7% | $-35,582 (vs do-nothing $-26,946) |
| $44 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.57 | 14/20 | $8,303 | $7,147 | 65% | 74% | +$1,903 | -$28,500 | 208.0% | $-31,806 (vs do-nothing $-23,170) |
| $44 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 16/20 | $8,400 | $7,189 | 63% | 74% | +$1,605 | -$31,084 | 226.9% | $-33,628 (vs do-nothing $-24,992) |
| $43.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.74 | 13/20 | $8,220 | $7,092 | 63% | 74% | +$1,719 | -$26,893 | 196.3% | $-30,580 (vs do-nothing $-21,944) |
| $43 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.85 | 9/20 | $8,325 | $7,308 | 62% | 73% | +$2,231 | -$19,870 | 145.0% | $-25,079 (vs do-nothing $-16,443) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.94 | 12/20 | $8,142 | $7,041 | 60% | 72% | +$1,589 | -$25,185 | 183.8% | $-29,252 (vs do-nothing $-20,616) |
| $43 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 14/20 | $8,190 | $7,034 | 60% | 72% | +$1,421 | -$28,038 | 204.7% | $-31,344 (vs do-nothing $-22,708) |
| $42.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 12/20 | $8,723 | $7,623 | 58% | 71% | +$1,626 | -$25,533 | 186.4% | $-29,600 (vs do-nothing $-20,964) |
| $42 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 13/20 | $8,482 | $7,355 | 57% | 71% | +$1,351 | -$26,750 | 195.3% | $-30,437 (vs do-nothing $-21,801) |
| $42 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 11/20 | $8,631 | $7,558 | 56% | 70% | +$1,580 | -$23,680 | 172.8% | $-28,128 (vs do-nothing $-19,492) |
| $42 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.27 | 8/20 | $9,080 | $8,091 | 56% | 70% | +$1,979 | -$18,126 | 132.3% | $-23,716 (vs do-nothing $-15,080) |
| $41.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 10/20 | $8,308 | $7,263 | 54% | 69% | +$1,373 | -$21,827 | 159.3% | $-26,656 (vs do-nothing $-18,020) |
| $41 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 12/20 | $8,640 | $7,540 | 53% | 69% | +$1,197 | -$25,353 | 185.1% | $-29,420 (vs do-nothing $-20,784) |
| $41 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 10/20 | $8,885 | $7,840 | 52% | 69% | +$1,394 | -$22,077 | 161.1% | $-26,906 (vs do-nothing $-18,270) |
| $41 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.76 | 6/20 | $8,280 | $7,346 | 49% | 67% | +$1,442 | -$13,900 | 101.5% | $-20,252 (vs do-nothing $-11,616) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.