20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $65.70 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $16,615/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,330/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-52,540 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 16 × $45 | 78% | $8,400 | $2,524 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 16 × $52 | 17 Jul | 6d | 27.4% | 96% | 7% | $272 | $1,360 | -$7,040 | $21,647 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $52 27.4% OTM over spot $40.83 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.18 mid) = $272 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,360/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $52.18) 97% EV / mo +$1,016 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [1.6-4.7] median · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 35% without) · ~1.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,115 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,046 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $61 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.81/sh now → $2.70 mid-life (likely $1.82–$3.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 154 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $54 (overshoots $1.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $14 below CC-SS $65.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $52.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $65.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,540 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,768 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $52): -$21,647 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $63): -$1,044 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,463 (+$22,077 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,991 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,472, the opportunity cost of earning $1,360/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $49 | 17 Jul | 6d | 20.0% | 92% | 17% | $740 | $3,700 | -$4,700 | $32,659 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $49 20.0% OTM over spot $40.83 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.39 mid) = $740 credit for the 6d cycle → $3,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $49.38) 93% EV / mo +$2,352 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.4-4.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~3.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,747 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,194 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $56 @ 83% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.49/sh now → $2.47 mid-life (likely $2.09–$3.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 351 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $51 (overshoots $1.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49 is $17 below CC-SS $65.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $49.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $49)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $65.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,540 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,768 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $49): -$32,659 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,431 (+$12,109 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,991 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,440, the opportunity cost of earning $3,700/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 17 × $47 | 17 Jul | 6d | 15.1% | 86% | 28% | $1,105 | $5,525 | -$2,875 | $30,684 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $47 15.1% OTM over spot $40.83 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.66 mid) = $1,105 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,525/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $47.66) 88% EV / mo +$3,114 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.6-4.7] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~6.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,212 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,836 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $55 @ 85% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.28/sh now → $2.32 mid-life (likely $2.14–$3.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 652 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $49 (overshoots $1.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $19 below CC-SS $65.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $47.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $65.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,540 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,768 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $47): -$30,684 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $63): -$783 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,239 (+$13,301 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,991 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,248, the opportunity cost of earning $5,525/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 16 × $45 | 17 Jul | 6d | 10.2% | 78% | 34% | $1,680 | $8,400 | — | $31,439 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $45 10.2% OTM over spot $40.83 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.06 mid) = $1,680 credit for the 6d cycle → $8,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $46.06) 83% EV / mo +$3,852 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.5-4.7] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 39% without) · ~11.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,613 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,797 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.07/sh now → $2.17 mid-life (likely $2.27–$3.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,014 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $46 (overshoots $1.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $21 below CC-SS $65.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.05 collected) or spot ≥ $46.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $65.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,540 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,768 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $45): -$31,439 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $63): -$1,044 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,255 (+$12,285 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,991 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,264, the opportunity cost of earning $8,400/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 17 × $42 | 17 Jul | 6d | 2.9% | 61% | 83% | $3,468 | $17,340 | +$8,940 | $36,821 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $42 2.9% OTM over spot $40.83 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.06 mid) = $3,468 credit for the 6d cycle → $17,340/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $44.06) 73% EV / mo +$5,228 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.4-4.6] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~26.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,705 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$131 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.78/sh now → $1.96 mid-life (likely $2.65–$4.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,894 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $44 (overshoots $1.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $24 below CC-SS $65.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.51/sh (~25% of the $2.04 collected) or spot ≥ $44.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $65.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,540 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,768 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $42): -$36,821 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $63): -$783 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,376 (+$7,164 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,991 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,385, the opportunity cost of earning $17,340/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$44,768 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-12,991
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 16/20 | $8,400 | $7,153 | 78% | 83% | +$3,852 | -$31,439 | 229.5% | $-40,255 (vs do-nothing $-27,264) |
| $46.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.98 | 19/20 | $8,664 | $7,354 | 77% | 83% | +$4,162 | -$32,725 | 238.9% | $-40,758 (vs do-nothing $-27,767) |
| $45.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.25 | 16/20 | $8,313 | $7,066 | 73% | 81% | +$3,675 | -$28,717 | 209.6% | $-37,533 (vs do-nothing $-24,542) |
| $44 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.33 | 13/20 | $8,645 | $7,460 | 73% | 80% | +$3,537 | -$26,480 | 193.3% | $-36,079 (vs do-nothing $-23,088) |
| $45 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.03 | 18/20 | $8,432 | $7,143 | 72% | 79% | +$2,674 | -$33,605 | 245.3% | $-41,899 (vs do-nothing $-28,908) |
| $44.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.91 | 19/20 | $8,375 | $7,065 | 70% | 78% | +$1,678 | -$36,650 | 267.5% | $-44,683 (vs do-nothing $-31,692) |
| $45 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 19/20 | $8,550 | $7,240 | 69% | 77% | +$2,284 | -$33,629 | 245.5% | $-41,662 (vs do-nothing $-28,671) |
| $44 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.37 | 16/20 | $8,751 | $7,503 | 68% | 77% | +$2,548 | -$30,927 | 225.7% | $-39,743 (vs do-nothing $-26,752) |
| $43 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.64 | 11/20 | $9,020 | $7,876 | 67% | 76% | +$3,146 | -$23,166 | 169.1% | $-33,286 (vs do-nothing $-20,295) |
| $44 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 18/20 | $8,370 | $7,081 | 66% | 75% | +$1,563 | -$33,479 | 244.4% | $-41,773 (vs do-nothing $-28,782) |
| $43.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.52 | 15/20 | $8,723 | $7,496 | 66% | 76% | +$2,338 | -$29,519 | 215.5% | $-38,596 (vs do-nothing $-25,605) |
| $43 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.74 | 14/20 | $8,852 | $7,646 | 64% | 75% | +$2,321 | -$27,943 | 204.0% | $-37,281 (vs do-nothing $-24,290) |
| $43 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 16/20 | $8,760 | $7,513 | 63% | 75% | +$1,843 | -$30,479 | 222.5% | $-39,295 (vs do-nothing $-26,304) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $42.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.82 | 13/20 | $8,460 | $7,275 | 62% | 74% | +$1,825 | -$26,493 | 193.4% | $-36,092 (vs do-nothing $-23,101) |
| $42 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.04 | 9/20 | $9,180 | $8,078 | 61% | 73% | +$2,768 | -$19,494 | 142.3% | $-30,136 (vs do-nothing $-17,145) |
| $42 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 14/20 | $8,505 | $7,299 | 59% | 72% | +$1,609 | -$27,509 | 200.8% | $-36,847 (vs do-nothing $-23,856) |
| $42 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 12/20 | $8,862 | $7,697 | 59% | 73% | +$2,174 | -$24,600 | 179.6% | $-34,459 (vs do-nothing $-21,468) |
| $41.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 11/20 | $8,504 | $7,360 | 57% | 72% | +$1,823 | -$22,935 | 167.4% | $-33,055 (vs do-nothing $-20,064) |
| $41 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 14/20 | $8,610 | $7,404 | 56% | 70% | +$781 | -$28,839 | 210.5% | $-38,177 (vs do-nothing $-25,186) |
| $41 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 10/20 | $8,308 | $7,185 | 55% | 70% | +$1,702 | -$21,100 | 154.0% | $-31,481 (vs do-nothing $-18,490) |
| $41 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 7/20 | $8,750 | $7,690 | 54% | 70% | +$2,227 | -$15,540 | 113.4% | $-26,704 (vs do-nothing $-13,713) |
| $40.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 10/20 | $8,769 | $7,646 | 53% | 70% | +$1,599 | -$21,400 | 156.2% | $-31,781 (vs do-nothing $-18,790) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.