20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $66.56 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $21,818/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,370/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-55,380 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 18 × $46 | 90% | $11,205 | $5,515 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 20 × $45 | 76% | $11,073 | $2,375 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 17 × $54 | 17 Jul | 4d | 34.7% | 99+% | 1% | $187 | $1,402 | -$9,802 | $21,168 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $54 34.7% OTM over spot $40.10 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.12 mid) = $187 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,402/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $54) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $54.12) 99+% EV / mo +$1,380 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.4-5.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.7 mo) · 35% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 35% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-9,762 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,093 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $62 @ 81% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.22/sh now → $3.69 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $54 is $13 below CC-SS $66.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $54.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $54)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,632 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $54): -$21,168 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $63): -$1,042 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,958 (+$25,422 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,692 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,266, the opportunity cost of earning $1,402/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 20 × $48 | 17 Jul | 4d | 19.7% | 95% | 10% | $960 | $7,200 | -$4,005 | $36,164 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48 19.7% OTM over spot $40.10 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.50 mid) = $960 credit for the 4d cycle → $7,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $48.50) 96% EV / mo +$6,476 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.5-5.1] median · 45% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without) · ~3.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,046 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,232 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $53 @ 82% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.38/sh now → $3.10 mid-life (likely $2.56–$4.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 211 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $50 (overshoots $1.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $19 below CC-SS $66.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.48 collected) or spot ≥ $48.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,632 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48): -$36,164 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,912 (+$11,468 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,692 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,220, the opportunity cost of earning $7,200/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $47 | 17 Jul | 4d | 17.2% | 93% | 14% | $1,300 | $9,750 | -$1,455 | $37,824 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $47 17.2% OTM over spot $40.10 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.66 mid) = $1,300 credit for the 4d cycle → $9,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $47.66) 94% EV / mo +$8,515 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.7-4.8] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~4.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,030 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,702 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $55 @ 82% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.24/sh now → $3.00 mid-life (likely $2.59–$4.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 309 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $49 (overshoots $1.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $20 below CC-SS $66.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $47.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,632 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $47): -$37,824 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,572 (+$9,808 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,692 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,880, the opportunity cost of earning $9,750/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $46 | 17 Jul | 4d | 14.7% | 90% | 14% | $1,494 | $11,205 | — | $35,518 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $46 14.7% OTM over spot $40.10 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.88 mid) = $1,494 credit for the 4d cycle → $11,205/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $46.88) 93% EV / mo +$9,349 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.6-5.2] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 33% without) · ~6.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,669 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,739 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 85% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.11/sh now → $2.91 mid-life (likely $2.60–$4.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 435 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $48 (overshoots $1.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $21 below CC-SS $66.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.83 collected) or spot ≥ $46.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,632 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $46): -$35,518 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $63): -$694 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,960 (+$11,420 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,692 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,268, the opportunity cost of earning $11,205/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $43 | 17 Jul | 4d | 7.2% | 74% | 54% | $2,952 | $22,140 | +$10,935 | $39,460 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $43 7.2% OTM over spot $40.10 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.67 mid) = $2,952 credit for the 4d cycle → $22,140/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $44.67) 83% EV / mo +$13,927 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.5-5.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.7 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 35% without) · ~16.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $36,151 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,788 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 91% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.72/sh now → $2.63 mid-life (likely $2.98–$5.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,147 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $44 (overshoots $1.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $24 below CC-SS $66.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.64 collected) or spot ≥ $44.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,632 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $43): -$39,460 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $63): -$694 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-47,902 (+$7,478 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,692 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,210, the opportunity cost of earning $22,140/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 16 × $56 | 24 Jul | 11d | 39.7% | 97% | 7% | $512 | $1,396 | -$9,676 | $16,387 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $56 39.7% OTM over spot $40.10 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.34 mid) = $512 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,396/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $56) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $56.34) 97% EV / mo +$1,140 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.6-4.5] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 37% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~0.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,585 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,905 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $59 @ 75% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.43/sh now → $5.26 mid-life (likely $3.59–$6.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 163 simulated challenges: the $56 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $58 (overshoots $1.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $56 is $11 below CC-SS $66.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $56.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $56)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,632 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $56): -$16,387 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $63): -$1,389 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,524 (+$29,856 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,692 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,832, the opportunity cost of earning $1,396/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $51 | 24 Jul | 11d | 27.2% | 91% | 18% | $1,420 | $3,873 | -$7,200 | $29,704 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $51 27.2% OTM over spot $40.10 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.78 mid) = $1,420 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,873/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $51.78) 92% EV / mo +$2,672 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.5-4.2] median · 43% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~2.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,502 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,715 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 79% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.45/sh now → $4.57 mid-life (likely $3.81–$6.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 441 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $53 (overshoots $1.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $16 below CC-SS $66.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.71 collected) or spot ≥ $51.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,632 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $51): -$29,704 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,452 (+$17,928 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,692 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,760, the opportunity cost of earning $3,873/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 20 × $47.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 18.5% | 84% | 34% | $2,774 | $7,565 | -$3,507 | $35,350 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $47.50 18.5% OTM over spot $40.10 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.46 mid) = $2,774 credit for the 11d cycle → $7,565/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $48.96) 87% EV / mo +$4,635 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.4-5.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.8 mo) · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~4.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,860 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,443 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $53 @ 80% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.80/sh now → $4.11 mid-life (likely $4.08–$6.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 827 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $49 (overshoots $1.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47.50 is $19 below CC-SS $66.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.39 collected) or spot ≥ $48.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,632 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $47.50): -$35,350 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,098 (+$12,282 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,692 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,406, the opportunity cost of earning $7,565/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $45 | 24 Jul | 11d | 12.2% | 76% | 42% | $4,060 | $11,073 | — | $39,064 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $45 12.2% OTM over spot $40.10 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.16 mid) = $4,060 credit for the 11d cycle → $11,073/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $47.16) 83% EV / mo +$5,760 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.7-5.0] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 43% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 31% without) · ~8.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,316 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,527 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $53 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.36/sh now → $3.79 mid-life (likely $4.31–$6.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,261 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $47 (overshoots $1.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $22 below CC-SS $66.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.51/sh (~25% of the $2.03 collected) or spot ≥ $47.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,632 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $45): -$39,064 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-46,812 (+$8,568 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,692 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,120, the opportunity cost of earning $11,073/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $40 | 24 Jul | 11d | -0.2% | 53% | 99+% | $8,200 | $22,364 | +$11,291 | $44,924 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $40 0.2% ITM over spot $40.10 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $4.35 mid) = $8,200 credit for the 11d cycle → $22,364/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $40) 53% Breach risk 47% POP (stays ≤ $44.35) 73% EV / mo +$7,501 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,807 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $51 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.52/sh now → $3.20 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40 is $27 below CC-SS $66.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.02/sh (~25% of the $4.10 collected) or spot ≥ $44.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,632 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $40): -$44,924 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-52,672 (+$2,708 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,692 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,980, the opportunity cost of earning $22,364/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$47,632 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-14,692
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 18/20 | $11,205 | $9,884 | 90% | 93% | +$9,349 | -$35,518 | 259.3% | $-43,960 (vs do-nothing $-29,268) |
| $45 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 14/20 | $11,025 | $9,802 | 86% | 90% | +$8,676 | -$28,717 | 209.6% | $-38,548 (vs do-nothing $-23,856) |
| $44 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.33 | 11/20 | $10,973 | $9,823 | 80% | 86% | +$7,575 | -$23,355 | 170.5% | $-34,228 (vs do-nothing $-19,536) |
| $45 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.03 | 20/20 | $11,073 | $9,703 | 76% | 83% | +$5,760 | -$39,064 | 285.1% | $-46,812 (vs do-nothing $-32,120) |
| $43 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.64 | 9/20 | $11,070 | $9,970 | 74% | 83% | +$6,963 | -$19,730 | 144.0% | $-31,297 (vs do-nothing $-16,605) |
| $44 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.37 | 17/20 | $10,988 | $9,692 | 72% | 81% | +$5,337 | -$34,326 | 250.6% | $-43,116 (vs do-nothing $-28,424) |
| $43.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.52 | 16/20 | $10,996 | $9,724 | 70% | 80% | +$5,066 | -$32,867 | 239.9% | $-42,004 (vs do-nothing $-27,312) |
| $43 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.74 | 15/20 | $11,209 | $9,962 | 68% | 79% | +$5,024 | -$31,233 | 228.0% | $-40,717 (vs do-nothing $-26,025) |
| $42 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.04 | 8/20 | $12,240 | $11,164 | 67% | 80% | +$6,992 | -$18,018 | 131.5% | $-29,932 (vs do-nothing $-15,240) |
| $43 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 18/20 | $10,950 | $9,629 | 66% | 78% | +$3,831 | -$35,842 | 261.6% | $-44,284 (vs do-nothing $-29,592) |
| $42.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.82 | 15/20 | $11,536 | $10,289 | 65% | 78% | +$4,671 | -$31,863 | 232.6% | $-41,347 (vs do-nothing $-26,655) |
| $42 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 13/20 | $11,345 | $10,147 | 63% | 77% | +$4,757 | -$27,771 | 202.7% | $-37,949 (vs do-nothing $-23,257) |
| $42 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 17/20 | $11,475 | $10,178 | 62% | 75% | +$3,707 | -$34,870 | 254.5% | $-43,660 (vs do-nothing $-28,968) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $41.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 12/20 | $10,964 | $9,790 | 61% | 76% | +$4,246 | -$26,054 | 190.2% | $-36,580 (vs do-nothing $-21,888) |
| $41 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 6/20 | $11,250 | $10,223 | 60% | 77% | +$5,745 | -$13,837 | 101.0% | $-26,446 (vs do-nothing $-11,754) |
| $41 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 16/20 | $10,933 | $9,661 | 59% | 73% | +$2,523 | -$34,339 | 250.7% | $-43,476 (vs do-nothing $-28,784) |
| $41 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 12/20 | $11,782 | $10,608 | 58% | 74% | +$4,381 | -$26,354 | 192.4% | $-36,880 (vs do-nothing $-22,188) |
| $40.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 11/20 | $11,400 | $10,251 | 56% | 74% | +$3,943 | -$24,488 | 178.7% | $-35,361 (vs do-nothing $-20,669) |
| $40 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 14/20 | $11,667 | $10,444 | 55% | 72% | +$3,239 | -$30,187 | 220.3% | $-40,018 (vs do-nothing $-25,326) |
| $40 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 10/20 | $11,182 | $10,057 | 53% | 73% | +$3,751 | -$22,462 | 164.0% | $-33,682 (vs do-nothing $-18,990) |
| $40 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 5/20 | $11,250 | $10,248 | 52% | 76% | +$5,008 | -$11,781 | 86.0% | $-24,737 (vs do-nothing $-10,045) |
| $39.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 10/20 | $11,864 | $10,739 | 51% | 72% | +$3,738 | -$22,712 | 165.8% | $-33,932 (vs do-nothing $-19,240) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.