20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $66.30 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $22,364/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,370/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-55,380 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 18 × $46 | 91% | $11,205 | $5,914 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 18 × $44 | 73% | $11,635 | $2,750 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 17 × $54 | 17 Jul | 4d | 35.3% | 99+% | 1% | $187 | $1,402 | -$9,802 | $20,724 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $54 35.3% OTM over spot $39.90 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.12 mid) = $187 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,402/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $54) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $54.12) 99+% EV / mo +$1,384 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.5-5.1] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.9 mo) · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 35% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-10,009 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,493 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $62 @ 81% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.56/sh now → $3.93 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $54 is $12 below CC-SS $66.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $54.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $54)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,521 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $54): -$20,724 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $63): -$963 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,546 (+$25,834 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,280 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,266, the opportunity cost of earning $1,402/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 16 × $47 | 17 Jul | 4d | 17.8% | 94% | 13% | $1,040 | $7,800 | -$3,405 | $29,840 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $47 17.8% OTM over spot $39.90 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.66 mid) = $1,040 credit for the 4d cycle → $7,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $47.66) 95% EV / mo +$6,932 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [1.7-5.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without) · ~4.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,393 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,059 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $55 @ 83% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.51/sh now → $3.19 mid-life (likely $2.78–$5.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 274 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $49 (overshoots $1.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $19 below CC-SS $66.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $47.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,521 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $47): -$29,840 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $63): -$1,284 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,984 (+$16,396 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,280 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,704, the opportunity cost of earning $7,800/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $46 | 17 Jul | 4d | 15.3% | 91% | 13% | $1,494 | $11,205 | — | $35,047 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $46 15.3% OTM over spot $39.90 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.88 mid) = $1,494 credit for the 4d cycle → $11,205/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $46.88) 93% EV / mo +$9,560 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.7-5.0] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~6.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,998 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,061 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $52 @ 83% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.36/sh now → $3.09 mid-life (likely $2.90–$5.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 381 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $48 (overshoots $1.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $20 below CC-SS $66.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.83 collected) or spot ≥ $46.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,521 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $46): -$35,047 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $63): -$642 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,548 (+$11,832 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,280 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,268, the opportunity cost of earning $11,205/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $46 | 17 Jul | 4d | 15.3% | 91% | 19% | $1,660 | $12,450 | +$1,245 | $38,941 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $46 15.3% OTM over spot $39.90 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.88 mid) = $1,660 credit for the 4d cycle → $12,450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $46.88) 93% EV / mo +$10,622 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.6-4.7] median · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~6.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,763 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,513 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $52 @ 83% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.36/sh now → $3.09 mid-life (likely $2.74–$4.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 389 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $47 (overshoots $1.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $20 below CC-SS $66.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.83 collected) or spot ≥ $46.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,521 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $46): -$38,941 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-46,800 (+$8,580 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,280 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,520, the opportunity cost of earning $12,450/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $43 | 17 Jul | 4d | 7.8% | 76% | 49% | $3,116 | $23,370 | +$12,165 | $41,155 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $43 7.8% OTM over spot $39.90 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.67 mid) = $3,116 credit for the 4d cycle → $23,370/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $44.67) 85% EV / mo +$16,301 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.7-5.2] median, 0.4 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.4 mo) · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~15.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $35,119 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,192 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $55 @ 89% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.95/sh now → $2.79 mid-life (likely $3.13–$5.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,051 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $44 (overshoots $1.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $23 below CC-SS $66.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.64 collected) or spot ≥ $44.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,521 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $43): -$41,155 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$321 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,335 (+$6,045 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,280 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,055, the opportunity cost of earning $23,370/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 16 × $56 | 24 Jul | 11d | 40.4% | 97% | 7% | $512 | $1,396 | -$10,238 | $15,968 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $56 40.4% OTM over spot $39.90 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.34 mid) = $512 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,396/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $56) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $56.34) 97% EV / mo +$1,161 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.5-4.4] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 37% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~0.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $-3,053 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,222 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $59 @ 76% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.71/sh now → $5.46 mid-life (likely $4.12–$6.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 151 simulated challenges: the $56 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $58 (overshoots $1.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $56 is $10 below CC-SS $66.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $56.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $56)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,521 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $56): -$15,968 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $63): -$1,284 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,112 (+$30,268 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,280 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,832, the opportunity cost of earning $1,396/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 25.3% | 90% | 21% | $1,800 | $4,909 | -$6,725 | $30,801 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $50 25.3% OTM over spot $39.90 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.97 mid) = $1,800 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,909/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $50.97) 92% EV / mo +$3,458 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.7-4.8] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.0 mo) · 43% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without) · ~2.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,543 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,401 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $55 @ 79% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.50/sh now → $4.60 mid-life (likely $3.96–$6.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 481 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $52 (overshoots $1.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $16 below CC-SS $66.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.90 collected) or spot ≥ $50.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,521 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $50): -$30,801 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,660 (+$16,720 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,280 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,380, the opportunity cost of earning $4,909/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 20 × $47.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 19.0% | 84% | 34% | $2,774 | $7,565 | -$4,069 | $34,827 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $47.50 19.0% OTM over spot $39.90 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.46 mid) = $2,774 credit for the 11d cycle → $7,565/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $48.96) 87% EV / mo +$4,540 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.4-4.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.6 mo) · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~4.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,834 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,750 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $54 @ 81% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.02/sh now → $4.26 mid-life (likely $4.10–$6.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 808 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $49 (overshoots $1.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47.50 is $19 below CC-SS $66.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.39 collected) or spot ≥ $48.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,521 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $47.50): -$34,827 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,686 (+$12,694 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,280 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,406, the opportunity cost of earning $7,565/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $44 | 24 Jul | 11d | 10.3% | 73% | 48% | $4,266 | $11,635 | — | $35,875 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $44 10.3% OTM over spot $39.90 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.62 mid) = $4,266 credit for the 11d cycle → $11,635/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $46.62) 82% EV / mo +$5,954 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.5-5.4] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~9.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,444 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 48% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,588 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $52 @ 85% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.38/sh now → $3.81 mid-life (likely $4.50–$6.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,426 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $46 (overshoots $1.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $22 below CC-SS $66.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.59/sh (~25% of the $2.37 collected) or spot ≥ $46.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,521 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $44): -$35,875 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $63): -$642 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,376 (+$11,004 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,280 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,096, the opportunity cost of earning $11,635/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $40 | 24 Jul | 11d | 0.3% | 54% | 99% | $8,200 | $22,364 | +$10,729 | $44,401 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $40 0.3% OTM over spot $39.90 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $4.35 mid) = $8,200 credit for the 11d cycle → $22,364/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $40) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $44.35) 74% EV / mo +$8,083 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.7-4.3] median, 0.5 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.4 mo) · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without) · ~28.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $22,949 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 80% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,569 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $51 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.69/sh now → $3.32 mid-life (likely $4.77–$6.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,391 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $42 (overshoots $1.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40 is $26 below CC-SS $66.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.02/sh (~25% of the $4.10 collected) or spot ≥ $44.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,521 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $40): -$44,401 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-52,260 (+$3,120 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,280 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,980, the opportunity cost of earning $22,364/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$47,521 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-14,280
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 18/20 | $11,205 | $9,884 | 91% | 93% | +$9,560 | -$35,047 | 255.8% | $-43,548 (vs do-nothing $-29,268) |
| $45 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 15/20 | $11,812 | $10,565 | 87% | 91% | +$9,560 | -$30,375 | 221.7% | $-39,840 (vs do-nothing $-25,560) |
| $44 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.33 | 12/20 | $11,970 | $10,796 | 82% | 88% | +$9,092 | -$25,164 | 183.7% | $-35,592 (vs do-nothing $-21,312) |
| $43 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.64 | 10/20 | $12,300 | $11,175 | 76% | 85% | +$8,580 | -$21,660 | 158.1% | $-32,730 (vs do-nothing $-18,450) |
| $44 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.37 | 18/20 | $11,635 | $10,313 | 73% | 82% | +$5,954 | -$35,875 | 261.9% | $-44,376 (vs do-nothing $-30,096) |
| $43.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.52 | 17/20 | $11,684 | $10,387 | 71% | 81% | +$5,692 | -$34,477 | 251.7% | $-43,299 (vs do-nothing $-29,019) |
| $42 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.04 | 8/20 | $12,240 | $11,164 | 69% | 82% | +$7,766 | -$17,808 | 130.0% | $-29,520 (vs do-nothing $-15,240) |
| $43 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.74 | 15/20 | $11,209 | $9,962 | 69% | 79% | +$5,318 | -$30,840 | 225.1% | $-40,305 (vs do-nothing $-26,025) |
| $42.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.82 | 15/20 | $11,536 | $10,289 | 66% | 79% | +$4,988 | -$31,470 | 229.7% | $-40,935 (vs do-nothing $-26,655) |
| $43 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 19/20 | $11,558 | $10,213 | 66% | 79% | +$4,305 | -$37,336 | 272.5% | $-45,516 (vs do-nothing $-31,236) |
| $42 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 13/20 | $11,345 | $10,147 | 64% | 78% | +$5,052 | -$27,430 | 200.2% | $-37,537 (vs do-nothing $-23,257) |
| $42 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 17/20 | $11,475 | $10,178 | 63% | 76% | +$3,966 | -$34,426 | 251.3% | $-43,248 (vs do-nothing $-28,968) |
| $41.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 13/20 | $11,877 | $10,679 | 62% | 77% | +$4,915 | -$27,885 | 203.5% | $-37,992 (vs do-nothing $-23,712) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $41 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 6/20 | $11,250 | $10,223 | 62% | 79% | +$6,373 | -$13,680 | 99.9% | $-26,034 (vs do-nothing $-11,754) |
| $41 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 12/20 | $11,782 | $10,608 | 59% | 75% | +$4,691 | -$26,040 | 190.1% | $-36,468 (vs do-nothing $-22,188) |
| $41 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 17/20 | $11,617 | $10,320 | 59% | 74% | +$2,964 | -$36,041 | 263.1% | $-44,863 (vs do-nothing $-30,583) |
| $40.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 11/20 | $11,400 | $10,251 | 57% | 75% | +$4,246 | -$24,200 | 176.6% | $-34,949 (vs do-nothing $-20,669) |
| $40 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 14/20 | $11,667 | $10,444 | 56% | 73% | +$3,493 | -$29,820 | 217.7% | $-39,606 (vs do-nothing $-25,326) |
| $40 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 10/20 | $11,182 | $10,057 | 54% | 74% | +$4,042 | -$22,200 | 162.0% | $-33,270 (vs do-nothing $-18,990) |
| $40 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 5/20 | $11,250 | $10,248 | 53% | 77% | +$5,546 | -$11,650 | 85.0% | $-24,325 (vs do-nothing $-10,045) |
| $39.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 10/20 | $11,864 | $10,739 | 52% | 73% | +$4,045 | -$22,450 | 163.9% | $-33,520 (vs do-nothing $-19,240) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.