20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $67.06 (banked floor $66.85) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $20,727/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,370/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-55,380 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 17 × $46 | 88% | $10,582 | $5,032 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 20 × $45.50 | 77% | $10,519 | $2,208 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 17 × $54 | 17 Jul | 4d | 33.9% | 99% | 1% | $187 | $1,402 | -$9,180 | $22,017 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $54 33.9% OTM over spot $40.32 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.12 mid) = $187 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,402/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $54) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $54.12) 99+% EV / mo +$1,376 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.4-5.0] median · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-9,530 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,715 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $64 @ 82% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.91/sh now → $3.47 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $54 is $13 below CC-SS $67.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $54.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $54)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,134 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $54): -$22,017 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $63): -$1,191 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,454 (+$24,926 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,188 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,266, the opportunity cost of earning $1,402/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $48 | 17 Jul | 4d | 19.0% | 94% | 13% | $912 | $6,840 | -$3,743 | $35,304 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $48 19.0% OTM over spot $40.32 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.50 mid) = $912 credit for the 4d cycle → $6,840/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $48.50) 95% EV / mo +$5,763 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [1.6-5.0] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 35% without) · ~4.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,471 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,617 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.11/sh now → $2.91 mid-life (likely $2.41–$4.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 243 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $50 (overshoots $1.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $19 below CC-SS $67.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.48 collected) or spot ≥ $48.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,134 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $48): -$35,304 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$397 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,947 (+$12,433 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,188 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,759, the opportunity cost of earning $6,840/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $47 | 17 Jul | 4d | 16.6% | 91% | 18% | $1,300 | $9,750 | -$832 | $38,822 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $47 16.6% OTM over spot $40.32 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.66 mid) = $1,300 credit for the 4d cycle → $9,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $47.66) 93% EV / mo +$7,907 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.6-4.6] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.7 mo) · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without) · ~5.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,980 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,341 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.99/sh now → $2.82 mid-life (likely $2.40–$4.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 350 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $48 (overshoots $1.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $20 below CC-SS $67.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $47.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,134 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $47): -$38,822 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-46,068 (+$9,312 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,188 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,880, the opportunity cost of earning $9,750/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 17 × $46 | 17 Jul | 4d | 14.1% | 88% | 16% | $1,411 | $10,582 | — | $34,393 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $46 14.1% OTM over spot $40.32 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.88 mid) = $1,411 credit for the 4d cycle → $10,582/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $46.88) 91% EV / mo +$8,099 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.6-4.9] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.8 mo) · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 35% without) · ~7.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,996 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,234 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 85% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.86/sh now → $2.73 mid-life (likely $2.74–$4.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 478 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $48 (overshoots $1.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $21 below CC-SS $67.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.83 collected) or spot ≥ $46.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,134 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $46): -$34,393 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $63): -$1,191 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,830 (+$12,550 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,188 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,642, the opportunity cost of earning $10,582/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 17 × $43 | 17 Jul | 4d | 6.6% | 73% | 57% | $2,788 | $20,910 | +$10,328 | $38,116 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $43 6.6% OTM over spot $40.32 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.67 mid) = $2,788 credit for the 4d cycle → $20,910/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $44.67) 82% EV / mo +$12,430 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.5-4.7] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~18.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $32,761 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,420 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.50/sh now → $2.48 mid-life (likely $2.80–$4.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,190 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $44 (overshoots $1.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $24 below CC-SS $67.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.64 collected) or spot ≥ $44.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,134 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $43): -$38,116 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $63): -$1,191 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-46,553 (+$8,827 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,188 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,365, the opportunity cost of earning $20,910/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 16 × $56 | 24 Jul | 11d | 38.9% | 96% | 7% | $512 | $1,396 | -$9,123 | $17,186 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $56 38.9% OTM over spot $40.32 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.34 mid) = $512 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,396/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $56) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $56.34) 97% EV / mo +$1,115 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.6-4.1] median · 37% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~1.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,205 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,622 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $59 @ 76% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.18/sh now → $5.08 mid-life (likely $3.65–$6.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 173 simulated challenges: the $56 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $58 (overshoots $1.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $56 is $11 below CC-SS $67.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $56.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $56)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,134 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $56): -$17,186 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $63): -$1,588 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,020 (+$29,360 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,188 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,832, the opportunity cost of earning $1,396/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $51 | 24 Jul | 11d | 26.5% | 91% | 19% | $1,420 | $3,873 | -$6,646 | $30,702 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $51 26.5% OTM over spot $40.32 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.78 mid) = $1,420 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,873/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $51.78) 92% EV / mo +$2,573 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.5-4.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 43% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,268 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,407 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 78% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.24/sh now → $4.41 mid-life (likely $3.74–$6.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 463 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $53 (overshoots $1.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $16 below CC-SS $67.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.71 collected) or spot ≥ $51.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,134 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $51): -$30,702 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,948 (+$17,432 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,188 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,760, the opportunity cost of earning $3,873/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $47.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 17.8% | 83% | 36% | $2,635 | $7,187 | -$3,332 | $34,531 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $47.50 17.8% OTM over spot $40.32 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.46 mid) = $2,635 credit for the 11d cycle → $7,187/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $48.96) 87% EV / mo +$4,207 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.7-4.4] median · 41% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~5.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,216 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,908 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $53 @ 80% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.61/sh now → $3.97 mid-life (likely $3.83–$5.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 925 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $49 (overshoots $1.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47.50 is $20 below CC-SS $67.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.39 collected) or spot ≥ $48.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,134 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $47.50): -$34,531 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$397 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,174 (+$13,206 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,188 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,986, the opportunity cost of earning $7,187/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $45.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 12.8% | 77% | 41% | $3,857 | $10,519 | — | $39,265 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $45.50 12.8% OTM over spot $40.32 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.03 mid) = $3,857 credit for the 11d cycle → $10,519/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $47.53) 83% EV / mo +$5,487 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.4-4.5] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.7 mo) · 43% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~7.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $17,380 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,594 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $53 @ 84% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.26/sh now → $3.73 mid-life (likely $4.14–$5.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.93/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,227 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $47 (overshoots $1.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45.50 is $22 below CC-SS $67.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.48/sh (~25% of the $1.93 collected) or spot ≥ $47.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,134 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $45.50): -$39,265 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-46,511 (+$8,869 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,188 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,323, the opportunity cost of earning $10,519/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $40.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 0.4% | 55% | 98% | $7,600 | $20,727 | +$10,208 | $45,522 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $40.50 0.4% OTM over spot $40.32 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $4.05 mid) = $7,600 credit for the 11d cycle → $20,727/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $40.50) 55% Breach risk 45% POP (stays ≤ $44.55) 73% EV / mo +$6,551 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.4-4.7] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~27.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $20,024 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 81% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,311 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $51 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.44/sh now → $3.14 mid-life (likely $4.49–$6.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,434 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $42 (overshoots $1.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40.50 is $27 below CC-SS $67.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.95/sh (~25% of the $3.80 collected) or spot ≥ $44.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-55,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,134 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $40.50): -$45,522 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-52,768 (+$2,612 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,188 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,580, the opportunity cost of earning $20,727/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$48,134 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-15,188
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 17/20 | $10,582 | $9,286 | 88% | 91% | +$8,099 | -$34,393 | 251.0% | $-42,830 (vs do-nothing $-27,642) |
| $45 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 14/20 | $11,025 | $9,802 | 84% | 88% | +$7,863 | -$29,415 | 214.7% | $-39,044 (vs do-nothing $-23,856) |
| $44 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.33 | 11/20 | $10,973 | $9,823 | 79% | 85% | +$7,230 | -$23,904 | 174.5% | $-34,724 (vs do-nothing $-19,536) |
| $45.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.93 | 20/20 | $10,519 | $9,149 | 77% | 83% | +$5,487 | -$39,265 | 286.6% | $-46,511 (vs do-nothing $-31,323) |
| $45 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.03 | 19/20 | $10,519 | $9,173 | 75% | 82% | +$5,163 | -$38,059 | 277.8% | $-45,702 (vs do-nothing $-30,514) |
| $44.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.91 | 20/20 | $10,418 | $9,048 | 73% | 81% | +$4,115 | -$41,302 | 301.5% | $-48,548 (vs do-nothing $-33,360) |
| $43 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.64 | 9/20 | $11,070 | $9,970 | 73% | 82% | +$6,580 | -$20,179 | 147.3% | $-31,793 (vs do-nothing $-16,605) |
| $44 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.37 | 17/20 | $10,988 | $9,692 | 71% | 80% | +$5,011 | -$35,175 | 256.7% | $-43,612 (vs do-nothing $-28,424) |
| $43.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.52 | 16/20 | $10,996 | $9,724 | 69% | 79% | +$4,734 | -$33,666 | 245.7% | $-42,500 (vs do-nothing $-27,312) |
| $43 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.74 | 14/20 | $10,462 | $9,239 | 67% | 78% | +$4,376 | -$29,849 | 217.9% | $-39,478 (vs do-nothing $-24,290) |
| $43.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.38 | 19/20 | $10,710 | $9,364 | 67% | 77% | +$3,737 | -$38,340 | 279.9% | $-45,983 (vs do-nothing $-30,795) |
| $42 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.04 | 7/20 | $10,710 | $9,659 | 66% | 79% | +$5,727 | -$16,115 | 117.6% | $-28,523 (vs do-nothing $-13,335) |
| $43 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 18/20 | $10,950 | $9,629 | 65% | 77% | +$3,551 | -$36,740 | 268.2% | $-44,780 (vs do-nothing $-29,592) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $42.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.82 | 14/20 | $10,767 | $9,544 | 64% | 77% | +$4,024 | -$30,437 | 222.2% | $-40,066 (vs do-nothing $-24,878) |
| $42.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.78 | 17/20 | $10,713 | $9,416 | 63% | 76% | +$3,505 | -$35,326 | 257.9% | $-43,764 (vs do-nothing $-28,575) |
| $42 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 12/20 | $10,473 | $9,299 | 62% | 76% | +$4,083 | -$26,233 | 191.5% | $-36,656 (vs do-nothing $-21,468) |
| $42 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 16/20 | $10,800 | $9,528 | 61% | 75% | +$3,216 | -$33,618 | 245.4% | $-42,452 (vs do-nothing $-27,264) |
| $41.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 12/20 | $10,964 | $9,790 | 60% | 75% | +$3,917 | -$26,653 | 194.5% | $-37,076 (vs do-nothing $-21,888) |
| $41.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.19 | 15/20 | $10,474 | $9,226 | 60% | 74% | +$3,157 | -$32,057 | 234.0% | $-41,289 (vs do-nothing $-26,101) |
| $41 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 6/20 | $11,250 | $10,223 | 58% | 76% | +$5,320 | -$14,137 | 103.2% | $-26,942 (vs do-nothing $-11,754) |
| $41 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 16/20 | $10,933 | $9,661 | 58% | 72% | +$2,224 | -$35,138 | 256.5% | $-43,972 (vs do-nothing $-28,784) |
| $41 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 11/20 | $10,800 | $9,651 | 57% | 73% | +$3,694 | -$24,707 | 180.3% | $-35,527 (vs do-nothing $-20,339) |
| $40.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.65 | 14/20 | $10,839 | $9,617 | 56% | 72% | +$3,015 | -$30,682 | 224.0% | $-40,311 (vs do-nothing $-25,122) |
| $40.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 10/20 | $10,364 | $9,239 | 55% | 73% | +$3,275 | -$22,761 | 166.1% | $-33,978 (vs do-nothing $-18,790) |
| $40 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 13/20 | $10,833 | $9,635 | 54% | 72% | +$2,744 | -$28,679 | 209.3% | $-38,705 (vs do-nothing $-23,517) |
| $40 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 10/20 | $11,182 | $10,057 | 52% | 72% | +$3,423 | -$22,961 | 167.6% | $-34,178 (vs do-nothing $-18,990) |
| $40 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 5/20 | $11,250 | $10,248 | 50% | 74% | +$4,574 | -$12,031 | 87.8% | $-25,233 (vs do-nothing $-10,045) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.