20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $67.21 (banked floor $67.00) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $15,873/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,451/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-54,560 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 15 × $45 | 79% | $7,987 | $2,283 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 20 × $45.50 | 73% | $8,018 | $1,142 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 18 × $51 | 17 Jul | 4d | 24.1% | 96% | 7% | $198 | $1,485 | -$6,502 | $28,985 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $51 24.1% OTM over spot $41.09 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.11 mid) = $198 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,485/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $51.12) 97% EV / mo +$1,000 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.1-4.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,139 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,348 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $62 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.78/sh now → $1.97 mid-life (likely $1.57–$2.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 133 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $52 (overshoots $1.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $16 below CC-SS $67.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $51.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,560 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,074 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $51): -$28,985 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $63): -$841 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,311 (+$24,249 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,891 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,420, the opportunity cost of earning $1,485/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $48 | 17 Jul | 4d | 16.8% | 91% | 19% | $580 | $4,350 | -$3,637 | $37,846 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48 16.8% OTM over spot $41.09 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.29 mid) = $580 credit for the 4d cycle → $4,350/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $48.30) 91% EV / mo +$2,166 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-4.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo) · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~5.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,676 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,025 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $59 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.55/sh now → $1.80 mid-life (likely $1.59–$3.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 358 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $50 (overshoots $1.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $19 below CC-SS $67.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $48.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,560 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,074 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48): -$37,846 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,331 (+$16,229 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,891 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,440, the opportunity cost of earning $4,350/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $47 | 17 Jul | 4d | 14.4% | 87% | 26% | $722 | $5,415 | -$2,572 | $37,683 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $47 14.4% OTM over spot $41.09 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.40 mid) = $722 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,415/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $47.40) 89% EV / mo +$2,241 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.3-4.0] median · 45% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~8.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,768 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,599 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.47/sh now → $1.75 mid-life (likely $1.65–$3.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 509 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $49 (overshoots $1.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $20 below CC-SS $67.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $47.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,560 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,074 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $47): -$37,683 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$420 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,588 (+$15,972 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,891 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,697, the opportunity cost of earning $5,415/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 15 × $45 | 17 Jul | 4d | 9.5% | 79% | 31% | $1,065 | $7,987 | — | $32,254 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $45 9.5% OTM over spot $41.09 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.72 mid) = $1,065 credit for the 4d cycle → $7,987/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $45.73) 82% EV / mo +$2,499 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-4.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 43% without) · ~14.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,952 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,397 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.32/sh now → $1.64 mid-life (likely $1.73–$2.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 927 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $47 (overshoots $1.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $22 below CC-SS $67.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.71 collected) or spot ≥ $45.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,560 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,074 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $45): -$32,254 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $63): -$2,101 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,841 (+$19,719 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,891 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,950, the opportunity cost of earning $7,987/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 17 × $43 | 17 Jul | 4d | 4.6% | 67% | 70% | $2,125 | $15,938 | +$7,950 | $39,037 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $43 4.6% OTM over spot $41.09 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.27 mid) = $2,125 credit for the 4d cycle → $15,938/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $44.27) 75% EV / mo +$3,509 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~24.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,372 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 49% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$488 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.17/sh now → $1.54 mid-life (likely $1.91–$3.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,481 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $45 (overshoots $1.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $24 below CC-SS $67.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.31/sh (~25% of the $1.25 collected) or spot ≥ $44.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,560 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,074 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $43): -$39,037 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $63): -$1,261 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,783 (+$13,777 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,891 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,892, the opportunity cost of earning $15,938/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 18 × $54 | 24 Jul | 11d | 31.4% | 93% | 15% | $540 | $1,473 | -$6,545 | $23,243 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $54 31.4% OTM over spot $41.09 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.35 mid) = $540 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,473/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $54) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $54.35) 93% EV / mo +$605 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.2-4.7] median · 45% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 43% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $-4,095 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,644 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 73% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.85/sh now → $3.44 mid-life (likely $2.65–$4.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 342 simulated challenges: the $54 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $56 (overshoots $2.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $54 is $13 below CC-SS $67.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $54.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $54)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,560 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,074 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $54): -$23,243 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $63): -$841 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,569 (+$29,991 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,891 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,678, the opportunity cost of earning $1,473/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $52 | 24 Jul | 11d | 26.6% | 90% | 21% | $880 | $2,400 | -$5,618 | $29,546 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $52 26.6% OTM over spot $41.09 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.49 mid) = $880 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $52.49) 91% EV / mo +$851 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.3-4.4] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~2.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-581 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,616 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.59/sh now → $3.25 mid-life (likely $2.92–$4.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 478 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $54 (overshoots $1.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $15 below CC-SS $67.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $52.49 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,560 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,074 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $52): -$29,546 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,031 (+$24,529 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,891 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,140, the opportunity cost of earning $2,400/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 20 × $47.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 15.6% | 80% | 43% | $2,020 | $5,509 | -$2,509 | $37,406 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $47.50 15.6% OTM over spot $41.09 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.08 mid) = $2,020 credit for the 11d cycle → $5,509/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $48.58) 83% EV / mo +$1,104 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.2-4.5] median · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~6.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,978 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,666 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $53 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.02/sh now → $2.84 mid-life (likely $2.98–$4.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,040 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $49 (overshoots $1.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47.50 is $20 below CC-SS $67.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.01 collected) or spot ≥ $48.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,560 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,074 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $47.50): -$37,406 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,891 (+$16,669 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,891 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,000, the opportunity cost of earning $5,509/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $45.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 10.7% | 73% | 47% | $2,940 | $8,018 | — | $40,486 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $45.50 10.7% OTM over spot $41.09 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.74 mid) = $2,940 credit for the 11d cycle → $8,018/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $47.24) 79% EV / mo +$1,207 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.3-3.9] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 43% without) · ~8.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,429 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 47% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,401 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $53 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.77/sh now → $2.67 mid-life (likely $3.13–$4.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,416 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $47 (overshoots $1.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45.50 is $22 below CC-SS $67.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.37/sh (~25% of the $1.47 collected) or spot ≥ $47.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,560 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,074 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $45.50): -$40,486 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,971 (+$13,589 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,891 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,080, the opportunity cost of earning $8,018/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $41 | 24 Jul | 11d | -0.2% | 54% | 99+% | $6,000 | $16,364 | +$8,345 | $46,426 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $41 0.2% ITM over spot $41.09 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $3.15 mid) = $6,000 credit for the 11d cycle → $16,364/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $41) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $44.15) 68% EV / mo +$630 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,401 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $53 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.25/sh now → $2.30 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $41 is $26 below CC-SS $67.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.75/sh (~25% of the $3.00 collected) or spot ≥ $44.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $41)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,560 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,074 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $41): -$46,426 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-46,911 (+$7,649 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,891 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-38,020, the opportunity cost of earning $16,364/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 26 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.035 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$54,074 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-8,891
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 15/20 | $7,987 | $6,550 | 79% | 82% | +$2,499 | -$32,254 | 235.4% | $-34,841 (vs do-nothing $-25,950) |
| $44 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.92 | 12/20 | $8,280 | $6,851 | 73% | 78% | +$2,000 | -$26,751 | 195.3% | $-30,599 (vs do-nothing $-21,708) |
| $45.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.47 | 20/20 | $8,018 | $6,567 | 73% | 79% | +$1,207 | -$40,486 | 295.5% | $-40,971 (vs do-nothing $-32,080) |
| $45 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.61 | 19/20 | $8,343 | $6,895 | 71% | 77% | +$1,160 | -$39,146 | 285.7% | $-40,051 (vs do-nothing $-31,160) |
| $44.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.76 | 17/20 | $8,160 | $6,717 | 69% | 76% | +$1,040 | -$35,620 | 260.0% | $-37,366 (vs do-nothing $-28,475) |
| $45 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.45 | 20/20 | $8,167 | $6,716 | 68% | 76% | +$924 | -$39,526 | 288.5% | $-40,011 (vs do-nothing $-31,120) |
| $44 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.90 | 16/20 | $8,291 | $6,851 | 67% | 75% | +$884 | -$34,101 | 248.9% | $-36,267 (vs do-nothing $-27,376) |
| $44.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.62 | 19/20 | $8,297 | $6,849 | 67% | 75% | +$870 | -$38,177 | 278.7% | $-39,082 (vs do-nothing $-30,191) |
| $43 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.25 | 9/20 | $8,438 | $7,017 | 67% | 75% | +$1,858 | -$20,667 | 150.9% | $-25,775 (vs do-nothing $-16,884) |
| $44 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.77 | 18/20 | $8,310 | $6,865 | 65% | 74% | +$855 | -$36,797 | 268.6% | $-38,123 (vs do-nothing $-29,232) |
| $43.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.08 | 14/20 | $7,942 | $6,507 | 65% | 73% | +$793 | -$30,286 | 221.1% | $-33,293 (vs do-nothing $-24,402) |
| $43.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.94 | 17/20 | $8,330 | $6,887 | 64% | 73% | +$727 | -$35,314 | 257.8% | $-37,060 (vs do-nothing $-28,169) |
| $43 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.24 | 13/20 | $7,942 | $6,510 | 63% | 72% | +$638 | -$28,565 | 208.5% | $-31,992 (vs do-nothing $-23,101) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 16/20 | $8,400 | $6,960 | 62% | 72% | +$784 | -$33,701 | 246.0% | $-35,867 (vs do-nothing $-26,976) |
| $42.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 12/20 | $8,182 | $6,753 | 61% | 71% | +$780 | -$26,655 | 194.6% | $-30,503 (vs do-nothing $-21,612) |
| $42.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 15/20 | $8,125 | $6,688 | 60% | 71% | +$475 | -$32,194 | 235.0% | $-34,781 (vs do-nothing $-25,890) |
| $42 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.57 | 7/20 | $8,242 | $6,827 | 59% | 71% | +$1,261 | -$16,550 | 120.8% | $-22,499 (vs do-nothing $-13,608) |
| $42 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 15/20 | $8,500 | $7,063 | 59% | 70% | +$326 | -$32,719 | 238.8% | $-35,306 (vs do-nothing $-26,415) |
| $42 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.57 | 12/20 | $8,411 | $6,982 | 58% | 70% | +$305 | -$27,171 | 198.3% | $-31,019 (vs do-nothing $-22,128) |
| $41.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 13/20 | $8,017 | $6,585 | 57% | 70% | +$483 | -$28,617 | 208.9% | $-32,044 (vs do-nothing $-23,153) |
| $41.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.85 | 11/20 | $8,550 | $7,124 | 56% | 69% | +$518 | -$25,149 | 183.6% | $-29,417 (vs do-nothing $-20,526) |
| $41 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 13/20 | $8,450 | $7,018 | 55% | 69% | +$373 | -$29,007 | 211.7% | $-32,434 (vs do-nothing $-23,543) |
| $41 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 10/20 | $8,182 | $6,758 | 54% | 68% | +$315 | -$23,213 | 169.4% | $-27,901 (vs do-nothing $-19,010) |
| $40.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 12/20 | $8,500 | $7,071 | 53% | 68% | +$627 | -$26,955 | 196.8% | $-30,803 (vs do-nothing $-21,912) |
| $41 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 6/20 | $9,000 | $7,587 | 52% | 67% | +$1,027 | -$14,528 | 106.0% | $-20,897 (vs do-nothing $-12,006) |
| $40.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 9/20 | $7,977 | $6,557 | 51% | 66% | +$251 | -$21,117 | 154.1% | $-26,225 (vs do-nothing $-17,334) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.