20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $67.69 (banked floor $67.48) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $15,000/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,473/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-59,630 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 20 × $45 | 90% | $7,800 | $2,792 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 20 × $45 | 79% | $7,500 | $1,072 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 28.2% | 99% | 3% | $152 | $1,520 | -$6,280 | $33,455 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $50 28.2% OTM over spot $39.00 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.08 mid) = $152 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $50.09) 99% EV / mo +$1,344 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.2-4.1] median · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~1.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-4,445 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,130 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $60 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.19/sh now → $2.25 mid-life (likely $1.82–$3.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 57 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $52 (overshoots $1.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $18 below CC-SS $67.69: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $50.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.69, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,630 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,294 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $50): -$33,455 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$465 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,256 (+$24,374 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,632 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,624, the opportunity cost of earning $1,520/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.39 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-42,578 (+$17,052 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 20 × $46 | 17 Jul | 3d | 17.9% | 93% | 14% | $520 | $5,200 | -$2,600 | $42,856 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $46 17.9% OTM over spot $39.00 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.29 mid) = $520 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $46.28) 94% EV / mo +$3,672 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.5-5.0] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without) · ~5.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,278 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,484 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.83/sh now → $2.00 mid-life (likely $1.87–$3.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 287 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $48 (overshoots $1.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $22 below CC-SS $67.69: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $46.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.69, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,630 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,294 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $46): -$42,856 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,192 (+$15,438 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,632 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,560, the opportunity cost of earning $5,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.39 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,260, position total $-44,842 (+$14,788 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $45 | 17 Jul | 3d | 15.4% | 90% | 13% | $780 | $7,800 | — | $44,596 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $45 15.4% OTM over spot $39.00 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.41 mid) = $780 credit for the 3d cycle → $7,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $45.41) 92% EV / mo +$5,222 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.3-4.5] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 39% without) · ~7.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,631 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,102 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $55 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.74/sh now → $1.94 mid-life (likely $1.87–$3.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 387 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $47 (overshoots $1.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $23 below CC-SS $67.69: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $45.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.69, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,630 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,294 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $45): -$44,596 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,932 (+$13,698 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,632 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,300, the opportunity cost of earning $7,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.39 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,000, position total $-46,582 (+$13,048 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 15 × $42 | 17 Jul | 3d | 7.7% | 76% | 51% | $1,500 | $15,000 | +$7,200 | $37,032 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $42 7.7% OTM over spot $39.00 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.02 mid) = $1,500 credit for the 3d cycle → $15,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $43.02) 81% EV / mo +$6,974 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.2-4.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.7 mo) · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~21.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $22,119 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,144 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $55 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.49/sh now → $1.76 mid-life (likely $2.04–$3.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,017 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $44 (overshoots $1.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $26 below CC-SS $67.69: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.00 collected) or spot ≥ $43.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.69, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,630 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,294 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $42): -$37,032 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $63): -$2,324 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,692 (+$18,938 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,632 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,060, the opportunity cost of earning $15,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.39 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,585, position total $-49,147 (+$10,483 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 20 × $53 | 24 Jul | 10d | 35.9% | 95% | 10% | $500 | $1,500 | -$6,000 | $28,876 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $53 35.9% OTM over spot $39.00 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.28 mid) = $500 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $53) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $53.28) 95% EV / mo +$922 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.5-4.0] median · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~1.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-3,219 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,282 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 75% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.50/sh now → $3.89 mid-life (likely $3.19–$5.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 277 simulated challenges: the $53 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $55 (overshoots $2.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $53 is $15 below CC-SS $67.69: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $53.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $53)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.69, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,630 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,294 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $53): -$28,876 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,212 (+$29,418 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,632 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,580, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.39 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-42,582 (+$17,048 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $49.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 26.9% | 91% | 20% | $980 | $2,940 | -$4,560 | $35,396 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $49.50 26.9% OTM over spot $39.00 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.54 mid) = $980 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,940/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $50.04) 92% EV / mo +$1,457 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.5-4.8] median · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 39% without) · ~2.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $823 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,066 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $54 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.98/sh now → $3.52 mid-life (likely $2.90–$5.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 530 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $51 (overshoots $1.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49.50 is $18 below CC-SS $67.69: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $50.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.69, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,630 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,294 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $49.50): -$35,396 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,732 (+$22,898 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,632 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,100, the opportunity cost of earning $2,940/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.39 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-42,582 (+$17,048 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $47 | 24 Jul | 10d | 20.5% | 84% | 35% | $1,653 | $4,959 | -$2,541 | $37,654 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $47 20.5% OTM over spot $39.00 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.90 mid) = $1,653 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,959/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $47.90) 86% EV / mo +$1,479 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.4-4.9] median · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 39% without) · ~5.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,352 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,559 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $53 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.62/sh now → $3.27 mid-life (likely $3.25–$5.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.87/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 771 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $49 (overshoots $1.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $21 below CC-SS $67.69: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.87 collected) or spot ≥ $47.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.69, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,630 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,294 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $47): -$37,654 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$465 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,455 (+$20,175 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,632 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,823, the opportunity cost of earning $4,959/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.39 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-42,578 (+$17,052 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $45 | 24 Jul | 10d | 15.4% | 79% | 35% | $2,500 | $7,500 | — | $42,876 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $45 15.4% OTM over spot $39.00 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.29 mid) = $2,500 credit for the 10d cycle → $7,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $46.29) 83% EV / mo +$2,787 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.6-4.7] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 45% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without) · ~7.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,334 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,645 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $52 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.34/sh now → $3.07 mid-life (likely $3.30–$4.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,046 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $47 (overshoots $1.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $23 below CC-SS $67.69: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.31/sh (~25% of the $1.25 collected) or spot ≥ $46.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.69, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,630 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,294 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $45): -$42,876 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,212 (+$15,418 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,632 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,580, the opportunity cost of earning $7,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.39 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,280, position total $-44,862 (+$14,768 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $40.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 3.8% | 61% | 84% | $5,073 | $15,219 | +$7,719 | $46,584 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $40.50 3.8% OTM over spot $39.00 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.75 mid) = $5,073 credit for the 10d cycle → $15,219/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $40.50) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $43.25) 73% EV / mo +$3,156 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-4.2] median · 45% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~19.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,996 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$41 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $52 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.74/sh now → $2.65 mid-life (likely $3.53–$4.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,080 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $42 (overshoots $1.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40.50 is $27 below CC-SS $67.69: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.67/sh (~25% of the $2.67 collected) or spot ≥ $43.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.69, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,630 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,294 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $40.50): -$46,584 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$465 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-48,385 (+$11,245 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,632 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,753, the opportunity cost of earning $15,219/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.39 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,018, position total $-50,596 (+$9,034 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 34 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.016 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$58,294 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-10,632
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 20/20 | $7,800 | $6,327 | 90% | 92% | +$5,222 | -$44,596 | 325.5% | $-45,932 (vs do-nothing $-35,300) |
| $44 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.53 | 15/20 | $7,950 | $6,537 | 87% | 89% | +$4,752 | -$34,737 | 253.6% | $-38,397 (vs do-nothing $-27,765) |
| $43 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 11/20 | $8,140 | $6,775 | 82% | 85% | +$4,363 | -$26,343 | 192.3% | $-31,862 (vs do-nothing $-21,230) |
| $45 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.25 | 20/20 | $7,500 | $6,027 | 79% | 83% | +$2,787 | -$42,876 | 313.0% | $-44,212 (vs do-nothing $-33,580) |
| $44.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.34 | 19/20 | $7,638 | $6,177 | 78% | 82% | +$2,590 | -$41,511 | 303.0% | $-43,312 (vs do-nothing $-32,680) |
| $42 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 8/20 | $8,000 | $6,671 | 76% | 81% | +$3,719 | -$19,750 | 144.2% | $-26,664 (vs do-nothing $-16,032) |
| $44 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.48 | 17/20 | $7,548 | $6,111 | 75% | 80% | +$1,757 | -$37,754 | 275.6% | $-40,484 (vs do-nothing $-29,852) |
| $43.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.62 | 16/20 | $7,776 | $6,351 | 73% | 79% | +$1,763 | -$36,109 | 263.6% | $-39,304 (vs do-nothing $-28,672) |
| $44.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.21 | 20/20 | $7,800 | $6,327 | 73% | 79% | +$1,548 | -$41,956 | 306.2% | $-43,292 (vs do-nothing $-32,660) |
| $44 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.36 | 19/20 | $7,913 | $6,452 | 72% | 78% | +$1,542 | -$40,523 | 295.8% | $-42,324 (vs do-nothing $-31,692) |
| $43 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.78 | 15/20 | $8,010 | $6,597 | 71% | 78% | +$1,801 | -$34,362 | 250.8% | $-38,022 (vs do-nothing $-27,390) |
| $43.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.52 | 17/20 | $7,560 | $6,123 | 70% | 77% | +$1,451 | -$36,836 | 268.9% | $-39,566 (vs do-nothing $-28,934) |
| $42.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.90 | 14/20 | $7,980 | $6,579 | 70% | 77% | +$2,109 | -$32,603 | 238.0% | $-36,728 (vs do-nothing $-26,096) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.70 | 16/20 | $7,624 | $6,199 | 69% | 76% | +$1,465 | -$35,181 | 256.8% | $-38,376 (vs do-nothing $-27,744) |
| $41 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.33 | 6/20 | $7,980 | $6,675 | 68% | 77% | +$3,158 | -$15,215 | 111.1% | $-23,058 (vs do-nothing $-12,426) |
| $42 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.11 | 12/20 | $7,596 | $6,219 | 68% | 76% | +$1,991 | -$28,294 | 206.5% | $-33,348 (vs do-nothing $-22,716) |
| $42.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.86 | 15/20 | $7,571 | $6,158 | 67% | 76% | +$1,392 | -$33,492 | 244.5% | $-37,152 (vs do-nothing $-26,520) |
| $42 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 15/20 | $7,941 | $6,528 | 66% | 75% | +$1,334 | -$34,032 | 248.4% | $-37,692 (vs do-nothing $-27,060) |
| $41.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.26 | 12/20 | $8,136 | $6,759 | 66% | 75% | +$1,910 | -$28,714 | 209.6% | $-33,768 (vs do-nothing $-23,136) |
| $41.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 14/20 | $7,906 | $6,505 | 64% | 74% | +$1,316 | -$32,183 | 234.9% | $-36,308 (vs do-nothing $-25,676) |
| $41 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.47 | 11/20 | $8,151 | $6,786 | 63% | 74% | +$1,829 | -$26,640 | 194.5% | $-32,159 (vs do-nothing $-21,527) |
| $41 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 13/20 | $7,571 | $6,182 | 63% | 73% | +$1,037 | -$30,404 | 221.9% | $-34,994 (vs do-nothing $-24,362) |
| $40.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.67 | 10/20 | $8,010 | $6,657 | 61% | 73% | +$1,661 | -$24,518 | 179.0% | $-30,502 (vs do-nothing $-19,870) |
| $40.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 12/20 | $7,518 | $6,141 | 61% | 72% | +$1,135 | -$28,366 | 207.0% | $-33,420 (vs do-nothing $-22,788) |
| $40 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.74 | 5/20 | $8,700 | $7,407 | 61% | 74% | +$2,892 | -$12,974 | 94.7% | $-21,282 (vs do-nothing $-10,650) |
| $40 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 12/20 | $7,941 | $6,564 | 59% | 72% | +$1,100 | -$28,726 | 209.7% | $-33,780 (vs do-nothing $-23,148) |
| $40 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.92 | 9/20 | $7,884 | $6,543 | 59% | 72% | +$1,590 | -$22,291 | 162.7% | $-28,740 (vs do-nothing $-18,108) |
| $39.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 11/20 | $7,668 | $6,303 | 57% | 71% | +$955 | -$26,662 | 194.6% | $-32,181 (vs do-nothing $-21,549) |
| $39.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 9/20 | $8,235 | $6,894 | 57% | 70% | +$1,322 | -$22,624 | 165.1% | $-29,073 (vs do-nothing $-18,441) |
| $39 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 10/20 | $7,500 | $6,147 | 56% | 70% | +$976 | -$24,438 | 178.4% | $-30,422 (vs do-nothing $-19,790) |
| $39 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 8/20 | $7,920 | $6,591 | 54% | 69% | +$1,189 | -$20,310 | 148.3% | $-27,224 (vs do-nothing $-16,592) |
| $38.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 10/20 | $8,029 | $6,677 | 54% | 69% | +$1,064 | -$24,638 | 179.8% | $-30,622 (vs do-nothing $-19,990) |
| $39 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.22 | 4/20 | $8,880 | $7,599 | 52% | 70% | +$2,411 | -$10,587 | 77.3% | $-19,360 (vs do-nothing $-8,728) |
| $38.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 8/20 | $8,520 | $7,191 | 52% | 68% | +$1,169 | -$20,510 | 149.7% | $-27,424 (vs do-nothing $-16,792) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.