20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $67.43 (banked floor $67.22) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $12,529/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,491/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-56,390 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 16 × $45 | 83% | $6,400 | $2,253 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 19 × $45.50 | 76% | $6,327 | $-397 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 23.9% | 96% | 8% | $152 | $1,520 | -$4,880 | $32,973 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $50 23.9% OTM over spot $40.37 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.08 mid) = $152 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $50.09) 96% EV / mo +$702 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [1.0-3.3] median · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~2.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $-3,073 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,914 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $61 @ 82% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.28/sh now → $1.61 mid-life (likely $1.41–$2.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 80 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $52 (overshoots $1.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $17 below CC-SS $67.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $50.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,390 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,049 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $50): -$32,973 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$432 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,747 (+$21,643 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,990 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,757, the opportunity cost of earning $1,520/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-42,080 (+$14,310 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $47 | 17 Jul | 3d | 16.4% | 91% | 19% | $400 | $4,000 | -$2,400 | $40,469 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $47 16.4% OTM over spot $40.37 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.22 mid) = $400 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $47.22) 91% EV / mo +$1,227 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-3.7] median · 43% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~7.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,923 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,550 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 82% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.09/sh now → $1.48 mid-life (likely $1.36–$2.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 275 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $49 (overshoots $1.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $20 below CC-SS $67.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $47.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,390 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,049 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $47): -$40,469 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,810 (+$14,580 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,990 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,820, the opportunity cost of earning $4,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$400, position total $-42,491 (+$13,899 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 16 × $46 | 17 Jul | 3d | 13.9% | 87% | 26% | $432 | $4,320 | -$2,080 | $33,863 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $46 13.9% OTM over spot $40.37 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.29 mid) = $432 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,320/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $46.28) 88% EV / mo +$978 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [1.0-3.8] median · 45% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~9.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,728 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,857 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.02/sh now → $1.43 mid-life (likely $1.43–$2.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 388 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $48 (overshoots $1.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $21 below CC-SS $67.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $46.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,390 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,049 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $46): -$33,863 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $63): -$1,730 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,934 (+$19,456 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,990 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,944, the opportunity cost of earning $4,320/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,808, position total $-43,855 (+$12,535 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 16 × $45 | 17 Jul | 3d | 11.5% | 83% | 19% | $640 | $6,400 | — | $35,255 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $45 11.5% OTM over spot $40.37 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.42 mid) = $640 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $45.41) 85% EV / mo +$1,378 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-3.9] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 43% without) · ~13.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,682 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,578 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 84% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.96/sh now → $1.39 mid-life (likely $1.41–$2.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 561 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $47 (overshoots $1.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $22 below CC-SS $67.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $45.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,390 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,049 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $45): -$35,255 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $63): -$1,730 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,326 (+$18,064 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,990 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,336, the opportunity cost of earning $6,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,200, position total $-45,247 (+$11,143 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 17 × $43 | 17 Jul | 3d | 6.5% | 73% | 56% | $1,258 | $12,580 | +$6,180 | $40,280 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $43 6.5% OTM over spot $40.37 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.77 mid) = $1,258 credit for the 3d cycle → $12,580/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $43.77) 78% EV / mo +$2,258 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.3-3.9] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 43% without) · ~21.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,949 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$950 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.84/sh now → $1.30 mid-life (likely $1.52–$2.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.74/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,060 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $45 (overshoots $1.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $24 below CC-SS $67.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.74 collected) or spot ≥ $43.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,390 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,049 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $43): -$40,280 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $63): -$1,297 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,919 (+$13,471 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,990 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,929, the opportunity cost of earning $12,580/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,222, position total $-48,280 (+$8,110 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 16 × $51 | 24 Jul | 10d | 26.3% | 90% | 21% | $512 | $1,536 | -$4,791 | $25,783 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $51 26.3% OTM over spot $40.37 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.36 mid) = $512 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,536/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $51.37) 91% EV / mo +$223 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-3.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~3.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-4,213 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,966 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $54 @ 71% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.84/sh now → $3.42 mid-life (likely $2.84–$4.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 494 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $53 (overshoots $1.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $16 below CC-SS $67.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $51.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,390 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,049 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $51): -$25,783 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $63): -$1,730 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,854 (+$27,536 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,990 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,864, the opportunity cost of earning $1,536/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-42,047 (+$14,343 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $51 | 24 Jul | 10d | 26.3% | 90% | 21% | $640 | $1,920 | -$4,407 | $32,229 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $51 26.3% OTM over spot $40.37 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.36 mid) = $640 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,920/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $51.37) 91% EV / mo +$279 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.6-4.3] median · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 39% without) · ~3.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,780 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,207 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $54 @ 71% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.84/sh now → $3.42 mid-life (likely $3.06–$5.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 467 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $53 (overshoots $2.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $16 below CC-SS $67.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $51.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,390 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,049 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $51): -$32,229 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,570 (+$22,820 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,990 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,580, the opportunity cost of earning $1,920/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-42,091 (+$14,299 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 17 × $47 | 24 Jul | 10d | 16.4% | 81% | 40% | $1,394 | $4,182 | -$2,145 | $33,344 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $47 16.4% OTM over spot $40.37 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.89 mid) = $1,394 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,182/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $47.88) 84% EV / mo +$635 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.5-4.7] median, 0.4 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.9 mo) · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~6.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,646 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,776 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $51 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.30/sh now → $3.04 mid-life (likely $3.17–$4.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.82/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,002 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $49 (overshoots $1.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $20 below CC-SS $67.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.82 collected) or spot ≥ $47.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,390 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,049 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $47): -$33,344 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $63): -$1,297 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,983 (+$20,407 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,990 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,993, the opportunity cost of earning $4,182/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-42,058 (+$14,332 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $45.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 12.7% | 76% | 41% | $2,109 | $6,327 | — | $39,566 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $45.50 12.7% OTM over spot $40.37 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.18 mid) = $2,109 credit for the 10d cycle → $6,327/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $46.67) 80% EV / mo +$699 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.2-4.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 47% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~8.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,195 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,407 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $51 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.10/sh now → $2.90 mid-life (likely $3.20–$4.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,219 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $47 (overshoots $1.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45.50 is $22 below CC-SS $67.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.11 collected) or spot ≥ $46.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,390 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,049 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $45.50): -$39,566 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$432 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,340 (+$15,050 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,990 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,350, the opportunity cost of earning $6,327/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,501, position total $-43,581 (+$12,809 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $42 | 24 Jul | 10d | 4.0% | 62% | 83% | $4,300 | $12,900 | +$6,573 | $46,569 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $42 4.0% OTM over spot $40.37 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.21 mid) = $4,300 credit for the 10d cycle → $12,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $44.22) 71% EV / mo +$456 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-4.4] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~19.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,075 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$881 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $53 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.66/sh now → $2.59 mid-life (likely $3.52–$4.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,047 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $44 (overshoots $1.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $25 below CC-SS $67.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.54/sh (~25% of the $2.15 collected) or spot ≥ $44.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,390 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,049 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $42): -$46,569 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-47,910 (+$8,480 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,990 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,920, the opportunity cost of earning $12,900/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,500, position total $-48,591 (+$7,799 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 30 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.017 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$55,049 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-9,990
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 16/20 | $6,400 | $4,987 | 83% | 85% | +$1,378 | -$35,255 | 257.3% | $-38,326 (vs do-nothing $-28,336) |
| $44 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 12/20 | $6,480 | $5,144 | 79% | 83% | +$1,642 | -$27,473 | 200.5% | $-32,274 (vs do-nothing $-22,284) |
| $45.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.11 | 19/20 | $6,327 | $4,856 | 76% | 80% | +$699 | -$39,566 | 288.8% | $-41,340 (vs do-nothing $-31,350) |
| $45 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.23 | 17/20 | $6,273 | $4,840 | 74% | 79% | +$635 | -$36,047 | 263.1% | $-38,686 (vs do-nothing $-28,696) |
| $46 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.79 | 20/20 | $6,318 | $4,827 | 73% | 78% | +$255 | -$39,289 | 286.8% | $-40,630 (vs do-nothing $-30,640) |
| $43 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 9/20 | $6,660 | $5,383 | 73% | 78% | +$1,195 | -$21,325 | 155.7% | $-27,423 (vs do-nothing $-17,433) |
| $44.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.35 | 16/20 | $6,480 | $5,067 | 72% | 77% | +$552 | -$34,535 | 252.1% | $-37,606 (vs do-nothing $-27,616) |
| $45.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.87 | 19/20 | $6,270 | $4,799 | 72% | 77% | +$249 | -$38,122 | 278.3% | $-39,896 (vs do-nothing $-29,906) |
| $45 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.05 | 18/20 | $6,512 | $5,060 | 71% | 76% | +$225 | -$36,692 | 267.8% | $-38,898 (vs do-nothing $-28,908) |
| $44 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.48 | 15/20 | $6,660 | $5,266 | 70% | 76% | +$466 | -$32,931 | 240.4% | $-36,435 (vs do-nothing $-26,445) |
| $43.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.63 | 13/20 | $6,357 | $5,002 | 68% | 75% | +$387 | -$28,996 | 211.6% | $-33,364 (vs do-nothing $-23,374) |
| $44 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.41 | 15/20 | $6,379 | $4,986 | 68% | 75% | +$362 | -$31,536 | 230.2% | $-35,040 (vs do-nothing $-25,050) |
| $43 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.79 | 12/20 | $6,444 | $5,108 | 66% | 73% | +$331 | -$27,173 | 198.3% | $-31,974 (vs do-nothing $-21,984) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 18/20 | $6,353 | $4,901 | 66% | 75% | $-1,376 | -$39,482 | 288.2% | $-41,688 (vs do-nothing $-31,698) |
| $42 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 7/20 | $7,000 | $5,761 | 66% | 73% | +$793 | -$17,104 | 124.8% | $-24,067 (vs do-nothing $-14,077) |
| $43 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.70 | 14/20 | $6,671 | $5,296 | 64% | 75% | +$241 | -$30,428 | 222.1% | $-34,364 (vs do-nothing $-24,374) |
| $42.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.92 | 11/20 | $6,336 | $5,020 | 64% | 72% | +$135 | -$25,316 | 184.8% | $-30,549 (vs do-nothing $-20,559) |
| $42.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.30 | 16/20 | $6,494 | $5,081 | 63% | 72% | $-776 | -$36,215 | 264.3% | $-39,286 (vs do-nothing $-29,296) |
| $42 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.15 | 10/20 | $6,450 | $5,153 | 62% | 71% | +$228 | -$23,284 | 170.0% | $-28,950 (vs do-nothing $-18,960) |
| $42 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 12/20 | $6,353 | $5,017 | 61% | 71% | +$64 | -$26,921 | 196.5% | $-31,722 (vs do-nothing $-21,732) |
| $41.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.31 | 10/20 | $6,930 | $5,633 | 59% | 70% | +$80 | -$23,624 | 172.4% | $-29,290 (vs do-nothing $-19,300) |
| $41.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 12/20 | $6,565 | $5,229 | 59% | 72% | $-227 | -$27,401 | 200.0% | $-32,202 (vs do-nothing $-22,212) |
| $41 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.36 | 5/20 | $6,800 | $5,600 | 58% | 69% | +$523 | -$12,537 | 91.5% | $-20,365 (vs do-nothing $-10,375) |
| $41 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 11/20 | $6,406 | $5,090 | 58% | 72% | $-254 | -$25,448 | 185.8% | $-30,681 (vs do-nothing $-20,691) |
| $41 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.53 | 9/20 | $6,831 | $5,554 | 57% | 68% | +$62 | -$21,514 | 157.0% | $-27,612 (vs do-nothing $-17,622) |
| $40.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 10/20 | $6,265 | $4,968 | 56% | 71% | $-81 | -$23,384 | 170.7% | $-29,050 (vs do-nothing $-19,060) |
| $40.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.72 | 8/20 | $6,528 | $5,270 | 55% | 68% | $-61 | -$19,371 | 141.4% | $-25,902 (vs do-nothing $-15,912) |
| $40 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 9/20 | $6,353 | $5,076 | 54% | 70% | +$276 | -$21,091 | 153.9% | $-27,189 (vs do-nothing $-17,199) |
| $40 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 7/20 | $6,300 | $5,061 | 52% | 66% | +$3 | -$17,104 | 124.8% | $-24,067 (vs do-nothing $-14,077) |
| $40 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.80 | 4/20 | $7,200 | $6,020 | 49% | 64% | +$308 | -$10,254 | 74.8% | $-18,514 (vs do-nothing $-8,524) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.