20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $67.53 (banked floor $67.31) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $15,188/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,560/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-60,990 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 2d | 17 × $43 | 92% | $7,905 | $4,013 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 9d | 20 × $43.50 | 79% | $7,600 | $715 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 12 × $46 | 17 Jul | 2d | 20.6% | 98% | 4% | $108 | $1,620 | -$6,285 | $25,723 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 12 × $46 20.6% OTM over spot $38.15 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $108 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,620/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $46.10) 98% EV / mo +$1,453 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.3-4.7] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-4,466 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,986 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.47/sh now → $1.74 mid-life (likely $1.75–$3.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 66 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $47 (overshoots $1.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $22 below CC-SS $67.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $46.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,990 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,457 − CC assignment net of premium (12 × $46): -$25,723 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $63): -$3,509 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,765 (+$30,225 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,305 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,460, the opportunity cost of earning $1,620/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,524, position total $-43,761 (+$17,229 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 16 × $44 | 17 Jul | 2d | 15.3% | 95% | 11% | $336 | $5,040 | -$2,865 | $37,306 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $44 15.3% OTM over spot $38.15 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.22 mid) = $336 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,040/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $44.22) 95% EV / mo +$4,119 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.5-4.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.5 mo) · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without) · ~5.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,469 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,283 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $54 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.31/sh now → $1.64 mid-life (likely $1.59–$2.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 209 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $45 (overshoots $1.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $24 below CC-SS $67.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $44.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,990 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,457 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $44): -$37,306 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $63): -$1,754 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,593 (+$20,397 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,305 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,288, the opportunity cost of earning $5,040/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,040, position total $-47,333 (+$13,657 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 17 × $43 | 17 Jul | 2d | 12.7% | 92% | 10% | $527 | $7,905 | — | $41,168 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $43 12.7% OTM over spot $38.15 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.33 mid) = $527 credit for the 2d cycle → $7,905/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $43.33) 93% EV / mo +$5,925 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.3-4.7] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~9.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,257 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,166 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $52 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.24/sh now → $1.58 mid-life (likely $1.72–$3.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 289 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $44 (overshoots $1.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $25 below CC-SS $67.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $43.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,990 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,457 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $43): -$41,168 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $63): -$1,316 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,016 (+$16,974 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,305 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,711, the opportunity cost of earning $7,905/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,885, position total $-49,192 (+$11,798 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $43 | 17 Jul | 2d | 12.7% | 92% | 17% | $620 | $9,300 | +$1,395 | $48,432 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $43 12.7% OTM over spot $38.15 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.33 mid) = $620 credit for the 2d cycle → $9,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $43.33) 93% EV / mo +$6,970 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.5-4.3] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~8.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,829 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,549 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $52 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.24/sh now → $1.58 mid-life (likely $1.67–$3.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 307 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $45 (overshoots $1.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $25 below CC-SS $67.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $43.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,990 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,457 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $43): -$48,432 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,965 (+$11,025 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,305 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-39,660, the opportunity cost of earning $9,300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,100, position total $-50,449 (+$10,541 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 15 × $41 | 17 Jul | 2d | 7.5% | 80% | 41% | $1,020 | $15,300 | +$7,395 | $38,769 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $41 7.5% OTM over spot $38.15 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.71 mid) = $1,020 credit for the 2d cycle → $15,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $41) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $41.71) 85% EV / mo +$8,765 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.6-4.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.0 mo) · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 33% without) · ~23.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $28,203 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,202 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $53 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.09/sh now → $1.48 mid-life (likely $1.69–$3.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 792 simulated challenges: the $41 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $43 (overshoots $1.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $41 is $27 below CC-SS $67.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $41.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $41)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,990 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,457 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $41): -$38,769 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $63): -$2,193 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,495 (+$18,495 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,305 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,190, the opportunity cost of earning $15,300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,520, position total $-50,799 (+$10,191 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 16 × $50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 31.1% | 94% | 12% | $480 | $1,600 | -$6,000 | $27,562 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $50 31.1% OTM over spot $38.15 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.32 mid) = $480 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $50.31) 95% EV / mo +$1,014 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.7-4.6] median · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~2.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-3,311 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,069 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $55 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.90/sh now → $3.47 mid-life (likely $2.59–$4.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 310 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $52 (overshoots $1.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $18 below CC-SS $67.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $50.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,990 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,457 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $50): -$27,562 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $63): -$1,754 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,849 (+$30,141 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,305 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,544, the opportunity cost of earning $1,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-42,293 (+$18,697 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $48 | 24 Jul | 9d | 25.8% | 91% | 18% | $880 | $2,933 | -$4,667 | $38,172 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48 25.8% OTM over spot $38.15 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.46 mid) = $880 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,933/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $48.47) 92% EV / mo +$1,620 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.4-3.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.5 mo) · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~2.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $706 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,653 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $53 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.62/sh now → $3.27 mid-life (likely $2.87–$4.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 498 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $50 (overshoots $1.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $20 below CC-SS $67.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $48.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,990 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,457 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48): -$38,172 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,705 (+$21,285 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,305 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,400, the opportunity cost of earning $2,933/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-42,349 (+$18,641 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 18 × $45 | 24 Jul | 9d | 18.0% | 84% | 33% | $1,530 | $5,100 | -$2,500 | $39,017 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $45 18.0% OTM over spot $38.15 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.89 mid) = $1,530 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $45.89) 87% EV / mo +$2,297 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.5-4.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.5 mo) · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~5.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,491 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,823 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $51 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.20/sh now → $2.97 mid-life (likely $3.02–$4.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 849 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $47 (overshoots $1.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $23 below CC-SS $67.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $45.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,990 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,457 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $45): -$39,017 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $63): -$877 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,427 (+$19,563 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,305 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,122, the opportunity cost of earning $5,100/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,718, position total $-45,039 (+$15,951 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $43.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 14.0% | 79% | 36% | $2,280 | $7,600 | — | $45,772 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $43.50 14.0% OTM over spot $38.15 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.21 mid) = $2,280 credit for the 9d cycle → $7,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43.50) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $44.70) 83% EV / mo +$2,901 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.1-3.9] median · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without) · ~8.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,579 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,384 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $50 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.00/sh now → $2.83 mid-life (likely $3.04–$4.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,094 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $45 (overshoots $1.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43.50 is $24 below CC-SS $67.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.14 collected) or spot ≥ $44.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,990 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,457 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $43.50): -$45,772 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-47,305 (+$13,685 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,305 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,000, the opportunity cost of earning $7,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,440, position total $-47,789 (+$13,201 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $40 | 24 Jul | 9d | 4.8% | 63% | 78% | $4,600 | $15,333 | +$7,733 | $50,452 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $40 4.8% OTM over spot $38.15 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $2.36 mid) = $4,600 credit for the 9d cycle → $15,333/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $40) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $42.36) 74% EV / mo +$4,080 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.4-5.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.6 mo) · 47% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without) · ~18.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,439 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$425 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $52 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.55/sh now → $2.51 mid-life (likely $3.31–$4.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,878 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $42 (overshoots $1.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40 is $28 below CC-SS $67.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.57/sh (~25% of the $2.30 collected) or spot ≥ $42.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,990 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,457 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $40): -$50,452 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-51,985 (+$9,005 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,305 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-41,680, the opportunity cost of earning $15,333/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,120, position total $-52,469 (+$8,521 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 33 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.012 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$59,457 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-10,305
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.31 | 17/20 | $7,905 | $6,424 | 92% | 93% | +$5,925 | -$41,168 | 300.5% | $-44,016 (vs do-nothing $-33,711) |
| $42 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 11/20 | $7,755 | $6,431 | 87% | 89% | +$5,240 | -$27,562 | 201.2% | $-33,042 (vs do-nothing $-22,737) |
| $41 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.68 | 8/20 | $8,160 | $6,915 | 80% | 85% | +$4,675 | -$20,677 | 150.9% | $-27,473 (vs do-nothing $-17,168) |
| $43.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.14 | 20/20 | $7,600 | $6,040 | 79% | 83% | +$2,901 | -$45,772 | 334.1% | $-47,305 (vs do-nothing $-37,000) |
| $43 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.28 | 18/20 | $7,680 | $6,172 | 77% | 82% | +$2,852 | -$41,843 | 305.4% | $-44,253 (vs do-nothing $-33,948) |
| $42.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.41 | 17/20 | $7,990 | $6,509 | 75% | 81% | +$2,798 | -$40,148 | 293.0% | $-42,996 (vs do-nothing $-32,691) |
| $44 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.07 | 20/20 | $7,762 | $6,202 | 75% | 80% | +$2,308 | -$42,912 | 313.2% | $-44,445 (vs do-nothing $-34,140) |
| $43.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.20 | 19/20 | $7,838 | $6,304 | 74% | 79% | +$2,214 | -$41,470 | 302.7% | $-43,441 (vs do-nothing $-33,136) |
| $42 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.60 | 15/20 | $8,000 | $6,571 | 73% | 79% | +$2,798 | -$35,889 | 262.0% | $-39,615 (vs do-nothing $-29,310) |
| $43 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.32 | 18/20 | $7,830 | $6,322 | 72% | 79% | +$2,054 | -$39,971 | 291.8% | $-42,381 (vs do-nothing $-32,076) |
| $40 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.03 | 5/20 | $7,725 | $6,559 | 71% | 80% | +$3,943 | -$13,248 | 96.7% | $-21,360 (vs do-nothing $-11,055) |
| $41.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.73 | 14/20 | $8,073 | $6,671 | 71% | 78% | +$2,576 | -$34,015 | 248.3% | $-38,179 (vs do-nothing $-27,874) |
| $42.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.32 | 18/20 | $7,830 | $6,322 | 71% | 78% | +$1,575 | -$40,871 | 298.3% | $-43,281 (vs do-nothing $-32,976) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $42 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.53 | 17/20 | $8,064 | $6,583 | 69% | 77% | +$1,674 | -$39,094 | 285.4% | $-41,942 (vs do-nothing $-31,637) |
| $41 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.91 | 12/20 | $7,640 | $6,290 | 68% | 77% | +$2,266 | -$29,539 | 215.6% | $-34,581 (vs do-nothing $-24,276) |
| $41.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.73 | 15/20 | $7,678 | $6,249 | 67% | 76% | +$1,585 | -$34,944 | 255.1% | $-38,670 (vs do-nothing $-28,365) |
| $41 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.86 | 15/20 | $8,044 | $6,615 | 66% | 75% | +$1,468 | -$35,499 | 259.1% | $-39,225 (vs do-nothing $-28,920) |
| $40.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.10 | 11/20 | $7,700 | $6,376 | 65% | 74% | +$1,619 | -$27,419 | 200.1% | $-32,899 (vs do-nothing $-22,594) |
| $40.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 13/20 | $7,922 | $6,546 | 64% | 74% | +$1,779 | -$30,909 | 225.6% | $-35,512 (vs do-nothing $-25,207) |
| $40 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.30 | 10/20 | $7,667 | $6,369 | 63% | 74% | +$2,040 | -$25,226 | 184.1% | $-31,145 (vs do-nothing $-20,840) |
| $40 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 12/20 | $7,875 | $6,525 | 62% | 73% | +$1,771 | -$28,831 | 210.4% | $-33,873 (vs do-nothing $-23,568) |
| $39 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.40 | 4/20 | $8,400 | $7,260 | 61% | 75% | +$3,387 | -$10,850 | 79.2% | $-19,401 (vs do-nothing $-9,096) |
| $39.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.52 | 10/20 | $8,400 | $7,102 | 61% | 72% | +$1,677 | -$25,506 | 186.2% | $-31,425 (vs do-nothing $-21,120) |
| $39.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 11/20 | $7,631 | $6,308 | 60% | 73% | +$1,615 | -$26,759 | 195.3% | $-32,239 (vs do-nothing $-21,934) |
| $39 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 11/20 | $8,147 | $6,823 | 59% | 72% | +$1,687 | -$27,034 | 197.3% | $-32,514 (vs do-nothing $-22,209) |
| $39 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.63 | 9/20 | $7,890 | $6,619 | 58% | 72% | +$1,662 | -$23,307 | 170.1% | $-29,664 (vs do-nothing $-19,359) |
| $38.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 11/20 | $8,044 | $6,720 | 57% | 71% | +$1,116 | -$27,639 | 201.7% | $-33,119 (vs do-nothing $-22,814) |
| $38.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.98 | 8/20 | $7,947 | $6,702 | 56% | 70% | +$1,461 | -$20,837 | 152.1% | $-27,633 (vs do-nothing $-17,328) |
| $38 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 10/20 | $7,875 | $6,578 | 55% | 70% | +$1,130 | -$25,326 | 184.9% | $-31,245 (vs do-nothing $-20,940) |
| $38 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 8/20 | $8,400 | $7,155 | 53% | 69% | +$1,555 | -$21,101 | 154.0% | $-27,897 (vs do-nothing $-17,592) |
| $37.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 10/20 | $8,062 | $6,765 | 53% | 69% | +$849 | -$25,726 | 187.8% | $-31,645 (vs do-nothing $-21,340) |
| $37.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 7/20 | $7,933 | $6,715 | 50% | 68% | +$1,330 | -$18,638 | 136.0% | $-25,873 (vs do-nothing $-15,568) |
| $38 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.90 | 3/20 | $8,550 | $7,436 | 50% | 70% | +$2,714 | -$8,288 | 60.5% | $-17,277 (vs do-nothing $-6,972) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.