20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $67.96 (banked floor $67.75) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $14,625/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,560/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-59,530 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 2d | 13 × $43 | 85% | $7,410 | $1,992 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 9d | 20 × $44.50 | 78% | $7,400 | $961 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 15 × $47 | 17 Jul | 2d | 19.4% | 97% | 5% | $105 | $1,575 | -$5,835 | $31,335 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $47 19.4% OTM over spot $39.37 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.08 mid) = $105 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,575/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $47.08) 97% EV / mo +$1,230 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.2-4.5] median · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~2.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-3,024 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,259 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.23/sh now → $1.58 mid-life (likely $1.44–$3.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 89 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $49 (overshoots $1.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $21 below CC-SS $67.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $47.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,530 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,038 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $47): -$31,335 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $63): -$2,430 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,257 (+$24,273 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,212 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,045, the opportunity cost of earning $1,575/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.38 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$465, position total $-43,685 (+$15,845 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $45 | 17 Jul | 2d | 14.3% | 94% | 13% | $280 | $4,200 | -$3,210 | $45,640 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $45 14.3% OTM over spot $39.37 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.17 mid) = $280 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $45.16) 94% EV / mo +$2,558 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.4-4.1] median · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~7.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,568 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,683 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.09/sh now → $1.48 mid-life (likely $1.55–$2.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 259 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $47 (overshoots $1.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $23 below CC-SS $67.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $45.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,530 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,038 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $45): -$45,640 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-47,132 (+$12,398 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,212 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,920, the opportunity cost of earning $4,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.38 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,480, position total $-47,750 (+$11,780 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 15 × $44 | 17 Jul | 2d | 11.8% | 90% | 21% | $330 | $4,950 | -$2,460 | $35,610 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $44 11.8% OTM over spot $39.37 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.26 mid) = $330 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,950/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $44.26) 91% EV / mo +$2,583 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.4-4.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.9 mo) · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~11.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,543 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,822 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $55 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.03/sh now → $1.43 mid-life (likely $1.62–$3.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 389 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $46 (overshoots $1.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $24 below CC-SS $67.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $44.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,530 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,038 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $44): -$35,610 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $63): -$2,430 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,532 (+$19,998 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,212 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,320, the opportunity cost of earning $4,950/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.38 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,740, position total $-47,960 (+$11,570 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 13 × $43 | 17 Jul | 2d | 9.2% | 85% | 20% | $494 | $7,410 | — | $31,954 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 13 × $43 9.2% OTM over spot $39.37 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.42 mid) = $494 credit for the 2d cycle → $7,410/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $43.41) 87% EV / mo +$3,552 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.3-4.9] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without) · ~17.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,714 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,312 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $54 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.96/sh now → $1.39 mid-life (likely $1.55–$2.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 600 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $45 (overshoots $1.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $25 below CC-SS $67.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $43.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,530 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,038 − CC assignment net of premium (13 × $43): -$31,954 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $63): -$3,402 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,848 (+$22,682 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,212 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,636, the opportunity cost of earning $7,410/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.38 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,200, position total $-48,400 (+$11,130 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 17 × $42 | 17 Jul | 2d | 6.7% | 77% | 46% | $1,003 | $15,045 | +$7,635 | $43,129 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $42 6.7% OTM over spot $39.37 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.64 mid) = $1,003 credit for the 2d cycle → $15,045/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $42.63) 82% EV / mo +$5,950 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.3-4.3] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~23.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $21,558 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,282 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $55 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.90/sh now → $1.34 mid-life (likely $1.51–$3.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 920 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $44 (overshoots $1.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $26 below CC-SS $67.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.59 collected) or spot ≥ $42.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,530 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,038 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $42): -$43,129 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $63): -$1,458 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-46,079 (+$13,451 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,212 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,867, the opportunity cost of earning $15,045/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.38 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,143, position total $-51,383 (+$8,147 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 20 × $51 | 24 Jul | 9d | 29.5% | 93% | 15% | $480 | $1,600 | -$5,800 | $33,440 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $51 29.5% OTM over spot $39.37 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.29 mid) = $480 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $51.28) 93% EV / mo +$568 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.3-4.5] median · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 33% without) · ~2.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-4,830 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,148 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $55 @ 75% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.68/sh now → $3.31 mid-life (likely $2.67–$4.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 315 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $53 (overshoots $1.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $17 below CC-SS $67.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $51.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,530 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,038 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $51): -$33,440 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,932 (+$24,598 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,212 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,720, the opportunity cost of earning $1,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.38 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-43,270 (+$16,260 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $46 | 24 Jul | 9d | 16.8% | 83% | 35% | $1,501 | $5,003 | -$2,397 | $40,223 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $46 16.8% OTM over spot $39.37 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.89 mid) = $1,501 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,003/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $46.89) 86% EV / mo +$1,878 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.5-4.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 43% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~6.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,678 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,908 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $52 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.02/sh now → $2.85 mid-life (likely $2.89–$4.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 828 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $48 (overshoots $1.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $22 below CC-SS $67.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.79 collected) or spot ≥ $46.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,530 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,038 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $46): -$40,223 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $63): -$486 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,201 (+$17,329 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,212 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,989, the opportunity cost of earning $5,003/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.38 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,121, position total $-44,381 (+$15,149 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $44.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 13.0% | 78% | 36% | $2,220 | $7,400 | — | $44,700 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $44.50 13.0% OTM over spot $39.37 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.17 mid) = $2,220 credit for the 9d cycle → $7,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $45.67) 82% EV / mo +$2,456 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [1.6-5.1] median · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~8.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,321 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,206 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $51 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.83/sh now → $2.71 mid-life (likely $2.95–$4.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,068 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $46 (overshoots $1.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44.50 is $23 below CC-SS $67.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.11 collected) or spot ≥ $45.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,530 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,038 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $44.50): -$44,700 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-46,192 (+$13,338 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,212 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,980, the opportunity cost of earning $7,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.38 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,540, position total $-46,810 (+$12,720 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $41 | 24 Jul | 9d | 4.1% | 62% | 81% | $4,560 | $15,200 | +$7,800 | $49,360 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $41 4.1% OTM over spot $39.37 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $2.37 mid) = $4,560 credit for the 9d cycle → $15,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $41) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $43.37) 73% EV / mo +$3,486 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.1-4.7] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.7 mo) · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~19.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,673 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$262 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $54 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.41/sh now → $2.41 mid-life (likely $3.26–$4.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,937 simulated challenges: the $41 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $43 (overshoots $1.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $41 is $27 below CC-SS $67.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.57/sh (~25% of the $2.28 collected) or spot ≥ $43.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $41)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,530 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,038 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $41): -$49,360 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,852 (+$8,678 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,212 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-39,640, the opportunity cost of earning $15,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.38 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,200, position total $-51,470 (+$8,060 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 29 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.015 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$58,038 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-11,212
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.38 | 13/20 | $7,410 | $5,981 | 85% | 87% | +$3,552 | -$31,954 | 233.2% | $-36,848 (vs do-nothing $-25,636) |
| $44.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.11 | 20/20 | $7,400 | $5,840 | 78% | 82% | +$2,456 | -$44,700 | 326.3% | $-46,192 (vs do-nothing $-34,980) |
| $42 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 9/20 | $7,965 | $6,611 | 77% | 82% | +$3,150 | -$22,833 | 166.7% | $-29,671 (vs do-nothing $-18,459) |
| $44 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.24 | 18/20 | $7,440 | $5,918 | 76% | 81% | +$2,365 | -$40,896 | 298.5% | $-43,360 (vs do-nothing $-32,148) |
| $43.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.39 | 16/20 | $7,413 | $5,928 | 74% | 80% | +$2,281 | -$36,912 | 269.4% | $-40,348 (vs do-nothing $-29,136) |
| $45 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.99 | 20/20 | $7,462 | $5,902 | 74% | 80% | +$1,757 | -$41,940 | 306.1% | $-43,432 (vs do-nothing $-32,220) |
| $44.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.15 | 19/20 | $7,659 | $6,118 | 73% | 79% | +$1,777 | -$40,489 | 295.5% | $-42,467 (vs do-nothing $-31,255) |
| $44 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.27 | 18/20 | $7,661 | $6,139 | 71% | 78% | +$1,621 | -$39,042 | 285.0% | $-41,506 (vs do-nothing $-30,294) |
| $42.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.69 | 13/20 | $7,323 | $5,895 | 70% | 77% | +$1,969 | -$30,901 | 225.6% | $-35,795 (vs do-nothing $-24,583) |
| $43.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.47 | 16/20 | $7,410 | $5,925 | 70% | 77% | +$1,597 | -$35,184 | 256.8% | $-38,620 (vs do-nothing $-27,408) |
| $41 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.91 | 6/20 | $8,190 | $6,892 | 69% | 77% | +$2,717 | -$15,630 | 114.1% | $-23,926 (vs do-nothing $-12,714) |
| $43 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.62 | 15/20 | $7,369 | $5,903 | 68% | 76% | +$1,475 | -$33,510 | 244.6% | $-37,432 (vs do-nothing $-26,220) |
| $42 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.89 | 12/20 | $7,560 | $6,150 | 67% | 76% | +$1,985 | -$28,884 | 210.8% | $-34,264 (vs do-nothing $-23,052) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $42.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.79 | 14/20 | $7,324 | $5,876 | 66% | 75% | +$1,382 | -$31,738 | 231.7% | $-36,146 (vs do-nothing $-24,934) |
| $41.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.58 | 14/20 | $7,373 | $5,926 | 65% | 74% | +$58 | -$34,832 | 254.2% | $-39,240 (vs do-nothing $-28,028) |
| $42 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.98 | 14/20 | $7,822 | $6,375 | 65% | 74% | +$1,412 | -$32,172 | 234.8% | $-36,580 (vs do-nothing $-25,368) |
| $41.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 13/20 | $7,312 | $5,884 | 63% | 74% | +$1,332 | -$30,498 | 222.6% | $-35,392 (vs do-nothing $-24,180) |
| $41 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.28 | 10/20 | $7,600 | $6,228 | 62% | 73% | +$1,743 | -$24,680 | 180.1% | $-31,032 (vs do-nothing $-19,820) |
| $41 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 13/20 | $7,800 | $6,371 | 61% | 73% | +$1,366 | -$30,888 | 225.5% | $-35,782 (vs do-nothing $-24,570) |
| $40.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 9/20 | $7,500 | $6,146 | 60% | 72% | +$1,611 | -$22,464 | 164.0% | $-29,302 (vs do-nothing $-18,090) |
| $40.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 12/20 | $7,650 | $6,240 | 59% | 72% | +$1,267 | -$28,872 | 210.7% | $-34,252 (vs do-nothing $-23,040) |
| $40 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.37 | 4/20 | $8,220 | $6,960 | 59% | 72% | +$2,370 | -$10,636 | 77.6% | $-19,904 (vs do-nothing $-8,692) |
| $40 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 11/20 | $7,528 | $6,137 | 57% | 71% | +$1,248 | -$26,741 | 195.2% | $-32,607 (vs do-nothing $-21,395) |
| $40 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.72 | 9/20 | $8,160 | $6,806 | 57% | 71% | +$1,602 | -$22,716 | 165.8% | $-29,554 (vs do-nothing $-18,342) |
| $39.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 10/20 | $7,312 | $5,940 | 55% | 70% | +$1,191 | -$24,560 | 179.3% | $-30,912 (vs do-nothing $-19,700) |
| $39.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.96 | 8/20 | $7,893 | $6,558 | 54% | 70% | +$1,425 | -$20,400 | 148.9% | $-27,724 (vs do-nothing $-16,512) |
| $39 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 10/20 | $7,875 | $6,502 | 53% | 70% | +$1,319 | -$24,760 | 180.7% | $-31,112 (vs do-nothing $-19,900) |
| $39 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 8/20 | $8,267 | $6,932 | 52% | 68% | +$1,115 | -$20,688 | 151.0% | $-28,012 (vs do-nothing $-16,800) |
| $39 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.83 | 3/20 | $8,235 | $6,994 | 48% | 67% | +$1,620 | -$8,139 | 59.4% | $-17,893 (vs do-nothing $-6,681) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.