FORTRESS FIGHT: IREN-LC50 @ $31.40

BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $72.10 | 20 contracts (2,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IREN-LC50 @ $31.40 UNDERWATER $32.03 (50.5% below BE SS)

20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $72.10 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $38.797/sh)

SP: $70 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $32.718/sh)

HP: $23 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.773/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$107,700	(ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000
Normal income ref	$9,188/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$3,720/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-78,480	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$4,594/mo

HEDGE COVER
$3,720/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$9,188/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.5 mo to earn back $13,700

ML VELOCITY
11.7 mo to earn back $107,700

Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $72.10 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $65C (15d, $40/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$-300

Hole (after banked)

$78,780

was $78,480 · -0% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,153

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
20x $40.5C 31 Jul 2026	U18827291	$0.58	$1,153	2026-07-28

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 13 (live) · RSI 40 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 33 · %B 5 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $46.53 (+48%) · daily UBB $45.82 · 1-wk expected move ±$6 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-27: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 17 contracts at $36 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 77%, breach 23%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($4,594/mo); it brings $4,781/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 19 × $33/8d for $9,548/mo, but breach risk rises to 37% (+14pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 15 × $37/8d (81% survival, $3,150/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $60,102 (439% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $63, recoverable in 6.5 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 17 contracts realizes $-66,734 and cuts bleed by $3,162/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 (8d) · sell 17 × $36, 77% survival, $4,781/mo (E[net] $1,232/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	7 Aug 2026 · 8d	17 × $36	77%	$4,781	$1,232

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $1,275 with probability 63%; on the 37% touch you roll, paying $2,855 to close and taking $1,589 back from the best priced door (net cash $1,267) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 8d · E[net] $1,232/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 17 × $36 (50% normal), 77% survival, breach 23%, $4,781/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $37 rung (cover hedge) lifts survival to 81% (breach 23% → 19%) for $1,001/mo less (21% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.

IREN spot $31.40 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

33% normal

15 × $37

7 Aug

17.8%

81%hist 99%

41%hist 28%

+1pp

$840

$3,150

-$1,631

$51,816

Sell 15 × $37 17.8% OTM over spot $31.40 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.64 mid)

= $840 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,150/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $37)

81%

Breach risk

19%

POP (stays ≤ $37.63)

83%

EV / mo

$-344

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+1pp

22% whole by 9mo vs 21% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-2,513/mo

median; plan ~$-1,709/mo after 68% keep · $-21,598 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.7-5.0], measured ONLY among the 22% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

31%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,776

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$46 @ 81% POP

79% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.46/sh now → $1.74 mid-life (likely $1.77–$2.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 925 simulated challenges: the $37 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $39 (overshoots $1.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$37	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.97/sh	+$1,458 cycle +$2,298 [+$1,346…+$1,840] · 100% credit	66% surv 55%	-$66,102 NOT cap gain +$12,378
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$41	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.52/sh	+$786 cycle +$1,626 [+$380…+$993] · 95% credit	74% surv 69%	-$59,400 NOT cap gain +$19,080
Max even-money escape in the band	~$42	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.19/sh	+$286 cycle +$1,126 [-$230…+$482] · 55% credit	76% surv 71%	-$58,100 NOT cap gain +$20,380
SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$39	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.04/sh	+$61 cycle +$901 [-$416…+$236] · 40% credit	68% surv 62%	-$64,625 NOT cap gain +$13,855
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$46	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.39/sh	-$585 cycle +$255 [-$1,287…-$469] · 9% credit	81% surv 79%	-$52,671 NOT cap gain +$25,809
budget: banked $840 debit $585 (70% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$255 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $3,385/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,150/mo
vs 50% target ($4,594/mo)	-31%
vs normal income ($9,188/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$-560/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $37 is $35 below CC-SS $72.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$51,816
… as % of IC ($13,700)	378.2%
… as % of ML ($107,700)	48.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.6 mo
Surgical close (15 ct)	$-58,972

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.56 collected) or spot ≥ $37.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $37)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $36.63	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $37-37.63	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $37.63	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$37.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$840	$-67,560	+$10,920	+$825
+2.5%	$37.92 (1.0σ)	$-547	$-67,283	+$11,197	-$562
+5%	$38.85 (1.2σ)	$-1,935	$-67,005	+$11,475	-$1,950
SS (= V-bounce)	$63.43 (5.0σ)	$-38,805	$-59,631	+$18,849	-$38,820

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $72.10, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-78,480

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$73,262

− CC assignment net of premium (15 × $37): -$51,816

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $65): -$3,547

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-60,581 (+$17,899 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19,406 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-41,175, the opportunity cost of earning $3,150/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $46.53 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,455, position total $-64,701 (+$13,779 vs today)

▸

cover hedge

18 × $37

7 Aug

17.8%

81%hist 99%

41%hist 28%

+2pp

$1,008

$3,780

-$1,001

$62,180

Sell 18 × $37 17.8% OTM over spot $31.40 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.64 mid)

= $1,008 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,780/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $37)

81%

Breach risk

19%

POP (stays ≤ $37.63)

83%

EV / mo

$-413

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

25% whole by 9mo vs 24% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-2,276/mo

median; plan ~$-1,548/mo after 68% keep · $-19,579 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.3 mo [1.9-5.0], measured ONLY among the 25% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

30%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,131

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$46 @ 81% POP

79% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.46/sh now → $1.74 mid-life (likely $1.78–$2.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 899 simulated challenges: the $37 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $39 (overshoots $1.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (18 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$37	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.97/sh	+$1,750 cycle +$2,758 [+$1,605…+$2,211] · 100% credit	66% surv 55%	-$65,646 NOT cap gain +$12,834
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$41	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.52/sh	+$943 cycle +$1,951 [+$439…+$1,192] · 95% credit	74% surv 69%	-$59,078 NOT cap gain +$19,402
Max even-money escape in the band	~$42	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.19/sh	+$343 cycle +$1,351 [-$299…+$566] · 53% credit	76% surv 71%	-$57,878 NOT cap gain +$20,602
SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$39	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.04/sh	+$73 cycle +$1,081 [-$523…+$260] · 36% credit	68% surv 62%	-$64,448 NOT cap gain +$14,032
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$46	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.39/sh	-$702 cycle +$306 [-$1,557…-$559] · 11% credit	81% surv 79%	-$52,623 NOT cap gain +$25,857
budget: banked $1,008 debit $702 (70% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$306 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $4,062/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,780/mo
vs 50% target ($4,594/mo)	-18%
vs normal income ($9,188/mo)	41% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$64/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $37 is $35 below CC-SS $72.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$62,180
… as % of IC ($13,700)	453.9%
… as % of ML ($107,700)	57.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	6.8 mo
Surgical close (18 ct)	$-70,767

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $36.63	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $37-37.63	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $37.63	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$37.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,008	$-67,395	+$11,085	+$990
+2.5%	$37.92 (1.0σ)	$-657	$-67,395	+$11,085	-$675
+5%	$38.85 (1.2σ)	$-2,322	$-67,395	+$11,085	-$2,340
SS (= V-bounce)	$63.43 (5.0σ)	$-46,566	$-67,395	+$11,085	-$46,584

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $72.10, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-78,480

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$73,262

− CC assignment net of premium (18 × $37): -$62,180

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $65): -$1,419

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-68,816 (+$9,664 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19,406 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-49,410, the opportunity cost of earning $3,780/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $46.53 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,146, position total $-67,395 (+$11,085 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

17 × $36

7 Aug

14.6%

77%hist 96%

49%hist 28%

+4pp

$1,275

$4,781

—

$60,102

Sell 17 × $36 14.6% OTM over spot $31.40 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.77 mid)

= $1,275 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,781/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $36)

77%

Breach risk

23%

POP (stays ≤ $36.77)

80%

EV / mo

$-311

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

24% whole by 9mo vs 21% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-2,114/mo

median; plan ~$-1,437/mo after 68% keep · $-18,224 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [2.0-4.4], measured ONLY among the 24% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

37%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,580

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$46 @ 83% POP

81% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.37/sh now → $1.68 mid-life (likely $1.83–$2.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,117 simulated challenges: the $36 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $38 (overshoots $1.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (17 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$36	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.93/sh	+$1,589 cycle +$2,864 [+$1,369…+$1,939] · 100% credit	66% surv 55%	-$67,339 NOT cap gain +$11,141
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$40	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.47/sh	+$796 cycle +$2,071 [+$273…+$964] · 92% credit	74% surv 69%	-$60,757 NOT cap gain +$17,723
Max even-money escape in the band	~$41	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.14/sh	+$246 cycle +$1,521 [-$403…+$356] · 41% credit	76% surv 72%	-$59,507 NOT cap gain +$18,973
SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$38	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.02/sh	+$41 cycle +$1,316 [-$554…+$136] · 31% credit	68% surv 62%	-$66,012 NOT cap gain +$12,468
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$46	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.73/sh	-$1,244 cycle +$31 [-$2,347…-$1,316] · 1% credit	83% surv 81%	-$52,897 NOT cap gain +$25,583
budget: banked $1,275 debit $1,244 (98% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$31 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $2,685/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,781/mo
vs 50% target ($4,594/mo)	+4%
vs normal income ($9,188/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,067/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $36 is $36 below CC-SS $72.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$60,102
… as % of IC ($13,700)	438.7%
… as % of ML ($107,700)	55.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	6.5 mo
Surgical close (17 ct)	$-66,734

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $36.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $36)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $35.64	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $36-36.77	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $36.77	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$36.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,275	$-68,927	+$9,553	+$1,258
+2.5%	$36.90 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-255	$-68,837	+$9,643	-$272
+5%	$37.80 (1.0σ)	$-1,785	$-68,747	+$9,733	-$1,802
SS (= V-bounce)	$63.43 (5.0σ)	$-45,356	$-66,184	+$12,296	-$45,373

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $72.10, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-78,480

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$73,262

− CC assignment net of premium (17 × $36): -$60,102

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $65): -$2,128

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-67,448 (+$11,032 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19,406 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-48,042, the opportunity cost of earning $4,781/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $46.53 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,626, position total $-67,874 (+$10,606 vs today)

▸

100% normal

19 × $33

7 Aug

5.1%

63%hist 80%

80%hist 59%

+4pp

$2,546

$9,548

+$4,766

$71,752

Sell 19 × $33 5.1% OTM over spot $31.40 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.41 mid)

= $2,546 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,548/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $33)

63%

Breach risk

37%

POP (stays ≤ $34.41)

70%

EV / mo

$-2,107

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

26% whole by 9mo vs 22% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~8.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-1,337/mo

median; plan ~$-909/mo after 68% keep · $-10,445 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.7-5.0], measured ONLY among the 26% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

63%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$289

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$47 @ 90% POP

90% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.11/sh now → $1.49 mid-life (likely $1.99–$2.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,884 simulated challenges: the $33 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $35 (overshoots $1.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (19 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$33	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.83/sh	+$1,569 cycle +$4,115 [+$1,245…+$1,523] · 100% credit	66% surv 55%	-$71,490 NOT cap gain +$6,990
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$34	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.57/sh	+$1,088 cycle +$3,634 [+$679…+$936] · 100% credit	67% surv 58%	-$70,896 NOT cap gain +$7,584
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$37	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.43/sh	+$814 cycle +$3,360 [+$106…+$523] · 83% credit	74% surv 69%	-$65,770 NOT cap gain +$12,710
Max even-money escape in the band	~$38	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.02/sh	+$29 cycle +$2,575 [-$928…-$374] · 11% credit	77% surv 73%	-$63,855 NOT cap gain +$14,625
SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$47	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.99/sh	-$1,879 cycle +$667 [-$3,572…-$2,550]	90% surv 90%	-$50,462 NOT cap gain +$28,018
budget: banked $2,546 debit $1,879 (74% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$667 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $1,594/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$9,548/mo
vs 50% target ($4,594/mo)	+108%
vs normal income ($9,188/mo)	104% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,830/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $33 is $39 below CC-SS $72.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$71,752
… as % of IC ($13,700)	523.7%
… as % of ML ($107,700)	66.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	7.8 mo
Surgical close (19 ct)	$-74,689

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.34 collected) or spot ≥ $34.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $33)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $32.67	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $33-34.41	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $34.41	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$33.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,546	$-73,058	+$5,422	+$2,527
+2.5%	$33.82 (≤1σ, normal week)	$979	$-73,141	+$5,339	+$960
+5%	$34.65 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-589	$-73,223	+$5,257	-$608
SS (= V-bounce)	$63.43 (5.0σ)	$-55,271	$-76,101	+$2,379	-$55,290

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $72.10, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-78,480

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$73,262

− CC assignment net of premium (19 × $33): -$71,752

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$709

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-77,679 (+$801 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19,406 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-58,273, the opportunity cost of earning $9,548/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $46.53 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,161, position total $-74,411 (+$4,069 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on IREN are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (27 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$73,262 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-19,406

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$36	8d	7 Aug 2026	$0.75	17/20	$4,781	$1,067	77%	80%	$-311	-$60,102	438.7%	$-67,448 (vs do-nothing $-48,042)
$35.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$0.80	16/20	$4,800	$1,088	75%	79%	$-625	-$57,287	418.2%	$-65,342 (vs do-nothing $-45,936)
$35	8d	7 Aug 2026	$0.88	14/20	$4,620	$912	73%	77%	$-745	-$50,714	370.2%	$-60,188 (vs do-nothing $-40,782)
$34.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$0.75	17/20	$4,781	$1,067	71%	75%	$-2,570	-$62,652	457.3%	$-69,998 (vs do-nothing $-50,592)
$35.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$1.90	18/20	$4,664	$948	70%	76%	$-515	-$62,468	456.0%	$-69,104 (vs do-nothing $-49,698)
$35	15d	14 Aug 2026	$1.43	17/20	$4,862	$1,148	70%	75%	$-835	-$60,646	442.7%	$-67,992 (vs do-nothing $-48,586)
$35	22d	21 Aug 2026	$2.02	17/20	$4,683	$969	69%	75%	$-547	-$59,643	435.4%	$-66,989 (vs do-nothing $-47,583)
$34	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.09	12/20	$4,905	$1,201	68%	74%	$-938	-$44,417	324.2%	$-55,310 (vs do-nothing $-35,904)
$34.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$1.33	18/20	$4,788	$1,072	68%	74%	$-1,780	-$65,294	476.6%	$-71,930 (vs do-nothing $-52,524)
$34.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$2.15	16/20	$4,691	$979	67%	74%	$-569	-$56,727	414.1%	$-64,782 (vs do-nothing $-45,376)
$34	15d	14 Aug 2026	$1.51	16/20	$4,832	$1,120	66%	73%	$-1,518	-$58,551	427.4%	$-66,606 (vs do-nothing $-47,200)
$33.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.21	11/20	$4,991	$1,289	66%	72%	$-1,028	-$41,134	300.2%	$-52,736 (vs do-nothing $-33,330)
$34	22d	21 Aug 2026	$1.96	18/20	$4,811	$1,095	66%	72%	$-1,509	-$65,060	474.9%	$-71,696 (vs do-nothing $-52,290)

Show 14 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$33.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$1.41	17/20	$4,794	$1,080	64%	72%	$-2,433	-$63,230	461.5%	$-70,576 (vs do-nothing $-51,170)
$33.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$2.18	16/20	$4,756	$1,044	64%	72%	$-1,122	-$58,279	425.4%	$-66,334 (vs do-nothing $-46,928)
$33	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.34	10/20	$5,025	$1,325	63%	70%	$-1,109	-$37,764	275.7%	$-50,076 (vs do-nothing $-30,670)
$33	15d	14 Aug 2026	$1.64	15/20	$4,920	$1,210	62%	70%	$-1,997	-$56,196	410.2%	$-64,961 (vs do-nothing $-45,555)
$33	22d	21 Aug 2026	$2.14	16/20	$4,669	$957	62%	71%	$-1,627	-$59,143	431.7%	$-67,198 (vs do-nothing $-47,792)
$32.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$2.51	14/20	$4,792	$1,084	61%	70%	$-1,105	-$51,932	379.1%	$-61,406 (vs do-nothing $-42,000)
$32	22d	21 Aug 2026	$2.68	13/20	$4,751	$1,045	59%	69%	$-1,105	-$48,651	355.1%	$-58,835 (vs do-nothing $-39,429)
$32	15d	14 Aug 2026	$2.27	11/20	$4,994	$1,292	58%	68%	$-950	-$41,618	303.8%	$-53,220 (vs do-nothing $-33,814)
$32	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.63	8/20	$4,890	$1,194	58%	67%	$-1,229	-$30,779	224.7%	$-44,510 (vs do-nothing $-25,104)
$31.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$3.05	12/20	$4,991	$1,287	57%	68%	$-783	-$45,065	328.9%	$-55,958 (vs do-nothing $-36,552)
$31	22d	21 Aug 2026	$3.30	11/20	$4,950	$1,248	55%	67%	$-699	-$41,585	303.5%	$-53,187 (vs do-nothing $-33,781)
$31.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.54	8/20	$4,620	$924	55%	64%	$-2,185	-$31,251	228.1%	$-44,982 (vs do-nothing $-25,576)
$31	15d	14 Aug 2026	$2.70	9/20	$4,860	$1,162	54%	66%	$-809	-$34,564	252.3%	$-47,585 (vs do-nothing $-28,179)
$31	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.99	7/20	$5,224	$1,530	52%	63%	$-1,378	-$27,380	199.9%	$-41,820 (vs do-nothing $-22,414)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-30 19:14