FORTRESS FIGHT: IREN-LC50 @ $33.47

BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $68.12 | 20 contracts (2,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IREN-LC50 @ $33.47 UNDERWATER $29.96 (47.2% below BE SS)

20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $68.12 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $50 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $38.797/sh)

SP: $70 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $32.718/sh)

HP: $23 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.773/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$107,700	(ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000
Normal income ref	$14,600/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$2,952/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-71,700	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,300/mo

HEDGE COVER
$2,952/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$14,600/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
0.9 mo to earn back $13,700

ML VELOCITY
7.4 mo to earn back $107,700

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $68.12 (probe: $65C 15d) brings only $40/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$-300

Hole (after banked)

$72,000

was $71,700 · -0% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,153

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
20x $40.5C 31 Jul 2026	U18827291	$0.58	$1,153	2026-07-28

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 16 (live) · RSI 42 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 37 · %B 20 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $46.75 (+40%) · daily UBB $45.62 · 1-wk expected move ±$6 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-27: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 18 contracts at $39 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 80%, breach 20%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($7,300/mo); it brings $7,493/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 20 × $36/8d for $15,000/mo, but breach risk rises to 32% (+13pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 20 × $44/8d (92% survival, $3,000/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $50,415 (368% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $63, recoverable in 3.5 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 18 contracts realizes $-64,647 and cuts bleed by $2,657/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 (8d) · sell 18 × $39, 80% survival, $7,493/mo (E[net] $999/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	7 Aug 2026 · 8d	18 × $39	80%	$7,493	$999

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $1,998 with probability 68%; on the 32% touch you roll, paying $5,130 to close and taking $1,745 back from the best priced door (net cash $3,385) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 8d · E[net] $999/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 18 × $39 (50% normal), 80% survival, breach 20%, $7,493/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $41 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 86% (breach 20% → 14%) for $2,633/mo less (35% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

IREN spot $33.47 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

20 × $44

7 Aug

31.5%

92%hist 100%

17%hist 5%

+2pp

$800

$3,000

-$4,493

$47,437

Sell 20 × $44 31.5% OTM over spot $33.47 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.44 mid)

= $800 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $44)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $44.44)

93%

EV / mo

+$1,640

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

30% whole by 9mo vs 28% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-1,341/mo

median; plan ~$-912/mo after 68% keep · $-11,436 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.6-4.2], measured ONLY among the 30% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

12%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,951

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$53 @ 81% POP

76% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.77/sh now → $3.38 mid-life (likely $2.93–$4.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 369 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $46 (overshoots $1.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$44	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$1.16/sh	+$2,316 cycle +$3,116 [+$1,919…+$3,672] · 100% credit	69% surv 55%	-$48,008 NOT cap gain +$23,692
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$47	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.25/sh	+$499 cycle +$1,299 [-$107…+$1,554] · 70% credit	74% surv 63%	-$44,882 NOT cap gain +$26,818
Max even-money escape in the band	~$51	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.29/sh	+$574 cycle +$1,374 [-$147…+$1,832] · 70% credit	79% surv 72%	-$36,991 NOT cap gain +$34,709
SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$53	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.33/sh	-$655 cycle +$145 [-$1,599…+$532] · 34% credit	81% surv 76%	-$34,312 NOT cap gain +$37,388
budget: banked $800 debit $655 (82% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$145 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $10,160/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,000/mo
vs 50% target ($7,300/mo)	-59%
vs normal income ($14,600/mo)	21% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$48/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $44 is $24 below CC-SS $68.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$47,437
… as % of IC ($13,700)	346.3%
… as % of ML ($107,700)	44.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.2 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-71,780

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $44.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $43.56	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $44-44.44	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $44.44	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$44.00 (1.6σ)	$800	$-50,324	+$21,376	+$780
+2.5%	$45.10 (1.7σ)	$-1,400	$-50,375	+$21,325	-$1,420
+5%	$46.20 (1.9σ)	$-3,600	$-50,426	+$21,274	-$3,620
SS (= V-bounce)	$63.43 (4.5σ)	$-38,060	$-51,218	+$20,482	-$38,080

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $68.12, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,700

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$67,703

− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $44): -$47,437

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-51,434 (+$20,266 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,214 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-41,220, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $46.75 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,700, position total $-50,451 (+$21,249 vs today)

▸

33% normal

18 × $41

7 Aug

22.5%

86%hist 99%

29%hist 13%

+5pp

$1,296

$4,860

-$2,633

$47,517

Sell 18 × $41 22.5% OTM over spot $33.47 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.78 mid)

= $1,296 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,860/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $41)

86%

Breach risk

14%

POP (stays ≤ $41.78)

88%

EV / mo

+$2,265

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

28% whole by 9mo vs 23% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-809/mo

median; plan ~$-550/mo after 68% keep · $-5,902 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.3-4.9], measured ONLY among the 28% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

22%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,205

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$50 @ 82% POP

78% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.32/sh now → $3.06 mid-life (likely $2.85–$4.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 650 simulated challenges: the $41 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $43 (overshoots $1.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (18 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$41	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$1.04/sh	+$1,878 cycle +$3,174 [+$1,322…+$2,723] · 99% credit	69% surv 55%	-$53,811 NOT cap gain +$17,889
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$46	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.51/sh	+$921 cycle +$2,217 [+$98…+$1,678] · 79% credit	78% surv 70%	-$44,939 NOT cap gain +$26,761
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$44	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.13/sh	+$231 cycle +$1,527 [-$542…+$808] · 50% credit	74% surv 64%	-$50,514 NOT cap gain +$21,186
Max even-money escape in the band	~$48	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.05/sh	+$93 cycle +$1,389 [-$865…+$773] · 44% credit	80% surv 74%	-$42,835 NOT cap gain +$28,865
SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$50	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.52/sh	-$945 cycle +$351 [-$2,090…-$394] · 20% credit	82% surv 78%	-$39,965 NOT cap gain +$31,735
budget: banked $1,296 debit $945 (73% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$351 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $7,593/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,860/mo
vs 50% target ($7,300/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($14,600/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,912/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $41 is $27 below CC-SS $68.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$47,517
… as % of IC ($13,700)	346.8%
… as % of ML ($107,700)	44.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.3 mo
Surgical close (18 ct)	$-64,638

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.72 collected) or spot ≥ $41.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $41)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $40.59	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $41-41.78	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $41.78	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$41.00 (1.1σ)	$1,296	$-55,688	+$16,012	+$1,278
+2.5%	$42.02 (1.3σ)	$-549	$-55,531	+$16,169	-$567
+5%	$43.05 (1.4σ)	$-2,394	$-55,373	+$16,327	-$2,412
SS (= V-bounce)	$63.43 (4.5σ)	$-39,078	$-52,234	+$19,466	-$39,096

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $68.12, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,700

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$67,703

− CC assignment net of premium (18 × $41): -$47,517

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $65): -$622

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-52,136 (+$19,564 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,214 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-41,922, the opportunity cost of earning $4,860/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $46.75 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,054, position total $-54,803 (+$16,897 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

18 × $39

7 Aug

16.5%

80%hist 99%

42%hist 28%

+6pp

$1,998

$7,493

—

$50,415

Sell 18 × $39 16.5% OTM over spot $33.47 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.18 mid)

= $1,998 credit for the 8d cycle → $7,493/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $39)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $40.17)

84%

EV / mo

+$3,147

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+6pp

35% whole by 9mo vs 29% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-139/mo

median; plan ~$-94/mo after 68% keep · $-845 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.6-4.8], measured ONLY among the 35% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,132

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$50 @ 85% POP

83% survival

Buyback gross: $4.03/sh now → $2.85 mid-life (likely $3.06–$4.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 965 simulated challenges: the $39 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $41 (overshoots $1.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (18 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$39	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.97/sh	+$1,745 cycle +$3,743 [+$1,003…+$2,042] · 99% credit	69% surv 55%	-$57,149 NOT cap gain +$14,551
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$44	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.51/sh	+$921 cycle +$2,919 [-$108…+$1,160] · 70% credit	77% surv 70%	-$49,122 NOT cap gain +$22,578
Max even-money escape in the band	~$44	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.35/sh	+$638 cycle +$2,636 [-$436…+$848] · 53% credit	78% surv 71%	-$48,428 NOT cap gain +$23,272
SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$42	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.05/sh	+$94 cycle +$2,092 [-$876…+$208] · 32% credit	74% surv 65%	-$53,857 NOT cap gain +$17,843
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$50	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.06/sh	-$1,901 cycle +$97 [-$3,621…-$1,967] · 3% credit	85% surv 83%	-$40,220 NOT cap gain +$31,480
budget: banked $1,998 debit $1,901 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$97 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $5,381/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$7,493/mo
vs 50% target ($7,300/mo)	+3%
vs normal income ($14,600/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,545/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $39 is $29 below CC-SS $68.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$50,415
… as % of IC ($13,700)	368.0%
… as % of ML ($107,700)	46.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.5 mo
Surgical close (18 ct)	$-64,647

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.11 collected) or spot ≥ $40.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $39)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $38.61	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $39-40.17	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $40.17	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$39.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,998	$-58,894	+$12,806	+$1,980
+2.5%	$39.97 (≤1σ, normal week)	$243	$-58,744	+$12,956	+$225
+5%	$40.95 (1.1σ)	$-1,512	$-58,594	+$13,106	-$1,530
SS (= V-bounce)	$63.43 (4.5σ)	$-41,976	$-55,132	+$16,568	-$41,994

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $68.12, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,700

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$67,703

− CC assignment net of premium (18 × $39): -$50,415

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $65): -$622

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-55,034 (+$16,666 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,214 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-44,820, the opportunity cost of earning $7,493/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $46.75 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,952, position total $-57,701 (+$13,999 vs today)

▸

100% normal

20 × $36

7 Aug

7.6%

68%hist 80%

70%hist 51%

+12pp

$4,000

$15,000

+$7,507

$60,237

Sell 20 × $36 7.6% OTM over spot $33.47 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $2.05 mid)

= $4,000 credit for the 8d cycle → $15,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $36)

68%

Breach risk

32%

POP (stays ≤ $38.05)

77%

EV / mo

+$4,826

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+12pp

38% whole by 9mo vs 25% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~5.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,168/mo

median; plan ~$794/mo after 68% keep · $6,421 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.9-5.3], measured ONLY among the 38% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

56%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,105

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$52 @ 91% POP

91% survival

Buyback gross: $3.61/sh now → $2.55 mid-life (likely $3.24–$4.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,674 simulated challenges: the $36 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $38 (overshoots $1.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$36	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.86/sh	+$1,727 cycle +$5,727 [+$749…+$1,512] · 97% credit	69% surv 55%	-$61,029 NOT cap gain +$10,671
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$39	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.89/sh	+$1,786 cycle +$5,786 [+$555…+$1,436] · 93% credit	75% surv 65%	-$56,027 NOT cap gain +$15,673
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$38	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.21/sh	+$416 cycle +$4,416 [-$670…+$72] · 28% credit	74% surv 64%	-$58,373 NOT cap gain +$13,327
Max even-money escape in the band	~$41	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.13/sh	+$269 cycle +$4,269 [-$1,170…-$188] · 20% credit	79% surv 72%	-$52,659 NOT cap gain +$19,041
SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$52	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.81/sh	-$3,621 cycle +$379 [-$6,526…-$4,634]	91% surv 91%	-$36,032 NOT cap gain +$35,668
budget: banked $4,000 debit $3,621 (91% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$379 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,472/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$15,000/mo
vs 50% target ($7,300/mo)	+105%
vs normal income ($14,600/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$12,048/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $36 is $32 below CC-SS $68.12: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$60,237
… as % of IC ($13,700)	439.7%
… as % of ML ($107,700)	55.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.1 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-71,810

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.50/sh (~25% of the $2.00 collected) or spot ≥ $38.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $36)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $35.64	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $36-38.05	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $38.05	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$36.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,000	$-62,756	+$8,944	+$3,980
+2.5%	$36.90 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,200	$-62,798	+$8,902	+$2,180
+5%	$37.80 (≤1σ, normal week)	$400	$-62,839	+$8,861	+$380
SS (= V-bounce)	$63.43 (4.5σ)	$-50,860	$-64,018	+$7,682	-$50,880

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $68.12, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-71,700

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$67,703

− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $36): -$60,237

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-64,234 (+$7,466 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,214 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-54,020, the opportunity cost of earning $15,000/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $46.75 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,500, position total $-63,251 (+$8,449 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on IREN are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (32 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 32 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.977 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$67,703 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-10,214

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$39	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.11	18/20	$7,493	$4,545	80%	84%	+$3,147	-$50,415	368.0%	$-55,034 (vs do-nothing $-44,820)
$38	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.35	15/20	$7,594	$4,652	77%	82%	+$2,922	-$43,153	315.0%	$-48,704 (vs do-nothing $-38,490)
$37.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.49	14/20	$7,822	$4,882	75%	81%	+$2,879	-$40,780	297.7%	$-46,642 (vs do-nothing $-36,428)
$38	15d	14 Aug 2026	$2.10	18/20	$7,560	$4,612	73%	79%	+$2,100	-$50,433	368.1%	$-55,052 (vs do-nothing $-44,838)
$38.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$2.70	20/20	$7,364	$4,412	73%	80%	+$2,275	-$53,837	393.0%	$-57,834 (vs do-nothing $-47,620)
$37	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.65	12/20	$7,425	$4,489	72%	79%	+$2,629	-$35,362	258.1%	$-41,846 (vs do-nothing $-31,632)
$38	22d	21 Aug 2026	$2.85	19/20	$7,384	$4,434	71%	79%	+$2,189	-$51,810	378.2%	$-56,118 (vs do-nothing $-45,904)
$36.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.81	11/20	$7,466	$4,532	70%	78%	+$2,501	-$32,789	239.3%	$-39,584 (vs do-nothing $-29,370)
$37	15d	14 Aug 2026	$2.38	16/20	$7,616	$4,672	69%	77%	+$1,891	-$45,982	335.6%	$-51,222 (vs do-nothing $-41,008)
$37	22d	21 Aug 2026	$2.75	20/20	$7,500	$4,548	68%	77%	+$1,194	-$56,737	414.1%	$-60,734 (vs do-nothing $-50,520)
$36	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.00	10/20	$7,500	$4,568	68%	77%	+$2,413	-$30,119	219.8%	$-37,224 (vs do-nothing $-27,010)
$36.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$1.97	19/20	$7,486	$4,536	68%	75%	+$114	-$56,332	411.2%	$-60,640 (vs do-nothing $-50,426)
$36	15d	14 Aug 2026	$2.70	14/20	$7,560	$4,620	66%	75%	+$1,676	-$41,186	300.6%	$-47,048 (vs do-nothing $-36,834)

Show 19 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$35.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.14	10/20	$8,025	$5,093	65%	76%	+$2,573	-$30,479	222.5%	$-37,584 (vs do-nothing $-27,370)
$36	22d	21 Aug 2026	$3.45	16/20	$7,527	$4,583	65%	75%	+$1,729	-$45,870	334.8%	$-51,110 (vs do-nothing $-40,896)
$35.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$2.97	13/20	$7,722	$4,784	64%	74%	+$1,810	-$38,543	281.3%	$-44,716 (vs do-nothing $-34,502)
$35.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$3.65	15/20	$7,466	$4,524	63%	75%	+$1,645	-$43,453	317.2%	$-49,004 (vs do-nothing $-38,790)
$35	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.35	9/20	$7,931	$5,001	63%	74%	+$2,163	-$27,692	202.1%	$-35,108 (vs do-nothing $-24,894)
$35	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.15	12/20	$7,560	$4,624	62%	74%	+$1,662	-$35,962	262.5%	$-42,446 (vs do-nothing $-32,232)
$35	22d	21 Aug 2026	$3.90	14/20	$7,445	$4,505	62%	74%	+$1,634	-$40,906	298.6%	$-46,768 (vs do-nothing $-36,554)
$34.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$4.05	14/20	$7,732	$4,792	60%	73%	+$1,520	-$41,396	302.2%	$-47,258 (vs do-nothing $-37,044)
$34.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.54	8/20	$7,620	$4,692	60%	73%	+$1,889	-$24,863	181.5%	$-32,590 (vs do-nothing $-22,376)
$34.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.20	12/20	$7,680	$4,744	60%	73%	+$1,388	-$36,502	266.4%	$-42,986 (vs do-nothing $-32,772)
$34	22d	21 Aug 2026	$4.30	13/20	$7,623	$4,685	58%	72%	+$1,464	-$38,764	282.9%	$-44,937 (vs do-nothing $-34,723)
$34	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.60	11/20	$7,920	$4,986	58%	72%	+$1,628	-$33,570	245.0%	$-40,365 (vs do-nothing $-30,151)
$34	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.78	8/20	$8,340	$5,412	57%	71%	+$1,954	-$25,071	183.0%	$-32,798 (vs do-nothing $-22,584)
$33.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$4.55	12/20	$7,445	$4,509	57%	72%	+$1,382	-$36,082	263.4%	$-42,566 (vs do-nothing $-32,352)
$33.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.65	10/20	$7,300	$4,368	56%	71%	+$1,140	-$30,969	226.0%	$-38,074 (vs do-nothing $-27,860)
$33	22d	21 Aug 2026	$3.65	15/20	$7,466	$4,524	55%	69%	$-609	-$47,203	344.5%	$-52,754 (vs do-nothing $-42,540)
$33.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$3.00	7/20	$7,875	$4,949	54%	70%	+$1,669	-$22,133	161.6%	$-30,171 (vs do-nothing $-19,957)
$33	15d	14 Aug 2026	$2.90	13/20	$7,540	$4,602	53%	68%	$-1,090	-$41,884	305.7%	$-48,057 (vs do-nothing $-37,843)
$33	8d	7 Aug 2026	$3.30	6/20	$7,425	$4,501	52%	69%	+$1,535	-$19,091	139.4%	$-27,440 (vs do-nothing $-17,226)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-30 21:39