20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $66.82 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $11,786/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,604/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-57,180 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20x $40.5C 31 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $0.58 | $1,153 | 2026-07-28 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 7d | 17 × $44 | 74% | $5,901 | $1,635 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $50 | 7 Aug | 7d | 25.4% | 91%hist 100% | 19%hist 5% | +3pp | $380 | $1,629 | -$4,273 | $31,574 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $50 25.4% OTM over spot $39.88 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $0.23 mid) = $380 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,629/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $50.23) 91% EV / mo $-152 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 40% whole by 9mo vs 37% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-727/mo median; plan ~$-494/mo after 68% keep · $-5,865 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.2-3.9], measured ONLY among the 40% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,469 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $60 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.86/sh now → $2.03 mid-life (likely $1.73–$2.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 350 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $52 (overshoots $1.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $17 below CC-SS $66.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $50.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.96 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,180 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$56,289 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $50): -$31,574 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$181 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,645 (+$24,535 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,506 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,139, the opportunity cost of earning $1,629/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 14 × $45 | 7 Aug | 7d | 12.8% | 78%hist 96% | 47%hist 28% | +3pp | $910 | $3,900 | -$2,001 | $29,635 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $45 12.8% OTM over spot $39.88 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $0.71 mid) = $910 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $45.71) 80% EV / mo $-740 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 44% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-51/mo median; plan ~$-35/mo after 68% keep · $-266 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.2-4.4], measured ONLY among the 44% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,529 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $60 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.46/sh now → $1.74 mid-life (likely $1.89–$2.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,057 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $47 (overshoots $1.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $22 below CC-SS $66.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $45.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.96 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,180 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$56,289 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $45): -$29,635 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $65): -$1,085 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,610 (+$25,570 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,506 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,104, the opportunity cost of earning $3,900/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 17 × $44 | 7 Aug | 7d | 10.3% | 74%hist 96% | 55%hist 43% | +3pp | $1,377 | $5,901 | — | $37,413 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $44 10.3% OTM over spot $39.88 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $0.90 mid) = $1,377 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,901/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $44.90) 77% EV / mo $-1,250 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 44% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $470/mo median; plan ~$319/mo after 68% keep · $1,564 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-3.6], measured ONLY among the 44% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,492 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $59 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.39/sh now → $1.69 mid-life (likely $1.92–$2.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.81/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,250 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $46 (overshoots $1.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $23 below CC-SS $66.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.81 collected) or spot ≥ $44.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.96 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,180 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$56,289 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $44): -$37,413 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $65): -$542 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,846 (+$18,334 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,506 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,340, the opportunity cost of earning $5,901/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $41 | 7 Aug | 7d | 2.8% | 60%hist 79% | 86%hist 80% | +7pp | $2,754 | $11,803 | +$5,901 | $43,718 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $41 2.8% OTM over spot $39.88 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $1.62 mid) = $2,754 credit for the 7d cycle → $11,803/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $41) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $42.62) 68% EV / mo $-2,987 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,242/mo median; plan ~$844/mo after 68% keep · $5,872 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.2-3.8], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$3 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $56 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.16/sh now → $1.53 mid-life (likely $2.06–$3.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,071 simulated challenges: the $41 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $43 (overshoots $1.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $41 is $26 below CC-SS $66.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.53 collected) or spot ≥ $42.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $41)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.96 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,180 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$56,289 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $41): -$43,718 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $65): -$362 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,970 (+$12,210 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,506 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-40,464, the opportunity cost of earning $11,803/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.045 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$56,289 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,506
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.81 | 17/20 | $5,901 | $4,304 | 74% | 77% | $-1,250 | -$37,413 | 273.1% | $-38,846 (vs do-nothing $-34,340) |
| $44 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.56 | 18/20 | $6,017 | $4,417 | 70% | 75% | $-672 | -$38,264 | 279.3% | $-39,516 (vs do-nothing $-35,010) |
| $43 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.02 | 14/20 | $6,120 | $4,529 | 70% | 74% | $-1,303 | -$31,917 | 233.0% | $-33,892 (vs do-nothing $-29,386) |
| $44 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.25 | 19/20 | $6,107 | $4,505 | 68% | 74% | $-539 | -$39,079 | 285.2% | $-40,150 (vs do-nothing $-35,644) |
| $43 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.78 | 16/20 | $6,103 | $4,507 | 67% | 73% | $-865 | -$35,260 | 257.4% | $-36,874 (vs do-nothing $-32,368) |
| $43 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.52 | 17/20 | $6,120 | $4,522 | 66% | 73% | $-601 | -$36,206 | 264.3% | $-37,639 (vs do-nothing $-33,133) |
| $43 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.95 | 19/20 | $6,005 | $4,403 | 65% | 73% | $-790 | -$39,649 | 289.4% | $-40,720 (vs do-nothing $-36,214) |
| $42 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.26 | 11/20 | $5,940 | $4,355 | 65% | 71% | $-1,353 | -$25,913 | 189.1% | $-28,431 (vs do-nothing $-23,925) |
| $42 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.09 | 14/20 | $6,270 | $4,679 | 63% | 71% | $-849 | -$31,819 | 232.3% | $-33,794 (vs do-nothing $-29,288) |
| $42 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.82 | 15/20 | $6,043 | $4,449 | 63% | 71% | $-643 | -$32,996 | 240.9% | $-34,791 (vs do-nothing $-30,285) |
| $42 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.20 | 18/20 | $6,171 | $4,572 | 63% | 71% | $-984 | -$38,912 | 284.0% | $-40,164 (vs do-nothing $-35,658) |
| $41 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.45 | 16/20 | $5,914 | $4,319 | 60% | 72% | $-1,141 | -$35,788 | 261.2% | $-37,402 (vs do-nothing $-32,896) |
| $41 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.53 | 9/20 | $5,901 | $4,321 | 60% | 68% | $-1,494 | -$21,859 | 159.6% | $-24,738 (vs do-nothing $-20,232) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $41 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.15 | 14/20 | $6,300 | $4,709 | 60% | 69% | $-717 | -$31,735 | 231.6% | $-33,710 (vs do-nothing $-29,204) |
| $41 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.28 | 13/20 | $6,351 | $4,762 | 59% | 69% | $-1,337 | -$30,599 | 223.3% | $-32,755 (vs do-nothing $-28,249) |
| $40 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.85 | 15/20 | $6,188 | $4,594 | 57% | 69% | $-1,133 | -$34,451 | 251.5% | $-36,246 (vs do-nothing $-31,740) |
| $40 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.50 | 12/20 | $6,000 | $4,413 | 56% | 68% | $-745 | -$27,981 | 204.2% | $-30,318 (vs do-nothing $-25,812) |
| $40 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.75 | 10/20 | $5,893 | $4,310 | 55% | 66% | $-956 | -$24,068 | 175.7% | $-26,766 (vs do-nothing $-22,260) |
| $39.50 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.70 | 12/20 | $6,343 | $4,756 | 55% | 67% | $-793 | -$28,341 | 206.9% | $-30,678 (vs do-nothing $-26,172) |
| $40 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.85 | 8/20 | $6,343 | $4,764 | 54% | 64% | $-1,725 | -$19,974 | 145.8% | $-23,034 (vs do-nothing $-18,528) |
| $39.50 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.93 | 10/20 | $6,279 | $4,696 | 53% | 65% | $-1,078 | -$24,388 | 178.0% | $-27,086 (vs do-nothing $-22,580) |
| $39.50 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.03 | 7/20 | $6,090 | $4,514 | 51% | 63% | $-1,700 | -$17,701 | 129.2% | $-20,942 (vs do-nothing $-16,436) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.