20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $67.93 (banked floor $67.54) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $16,182/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,253/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-57,370 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 3d | 16 × $47 | 87% | $8,480 | $6,407 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 14 Aug 2026 · 10d | 20 × $48 | 80% | $8,220 | $1,035 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 13 × $52 | 7 Aug | 3d | 26.8% | 97%hist 99% | 6%hist 1% | +1pp | $130 | $1,300 | -$7,180 | $20,585 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 13 × $52 26.8% OTM over spot $41.02 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.11 mid) = $130 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $52.11) 97% EV / mo +$970 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-405/mo median; plan ~$-276/mo after 68% keep · $-2,996 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.9-3.5], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,253 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $66 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.68/sh now → $2.60 mid-life (likely $2.19–$4.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 104 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $54 (overshoots $2.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $16 below CC-SS $67.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $52.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$57,124 − CC assignment net of premium (13 × $52): -$20,585 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $65): -$2,047 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,879 (+$34,491 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,096 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,783, the opportunity cost of earning $1,300/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 15 × $48 | 7 Aug | 3d | 17.0% | 90%hist 99% | 20%hist 18% | +5pp | $570 | $5,700 | -$2,780 | $29,332 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $48 17.0% OTM over spot $41.02 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.42 mid) = $570 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $48.42) 91% EV / mo +$3,335 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,803/mo median; plan ~$1,226/mo after 68% keep · $7,216 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.7], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,925 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $62 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.29/sh now → $2.33 mid-life (likely $2.37–$4.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 414 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $50 (overshoots $2.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $20 below CC-SS $67.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $48.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$57,124 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $48): -$29,332 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $65): -$1,462 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,041 (+$26,329 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,096 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,945, the opportunity cost of earning $5,700/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $48 | 7 Aug | 3d | 17.0% | 90%hist 99% | 20%hist 18% | +9pp | $760 | $7,600 | -$880 | $39,110 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48 17.0% OTM over spot $41.02 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.42 mid) = $760 credit for the 3d cycle → $7,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $48.42) 91% EV / mo +$4,447 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,524/mo median; plan ~$1,716/mo after 68% keep · $10,677 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-3.4], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,899 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $62 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.29/sh now → $2.33 mid-life (likely $2.30–$4.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 422 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $50 (overshoots $2.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $20 below CC-SS $67.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $48.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$57,124 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48): -$39,110 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,356 (+$18,014 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,096 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,260, the opportunity cost of earning $7,600/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 16 × $47 | 7 Aug | 3d | 14.6% | 87%hist 95% | 27%hist 18% | +6pp | $848 | $8,480 | — | $32,648 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $47 14.6% OTM over spot $41.02 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.57 mid) = $848 credit for the 3d cycle → $8,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $47.58) 89% EV / mo +$4,611 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,728/mo median; plan ~$1,855/mo after 68% keep · $11,679 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-3.7], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,773 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $61 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.20/sh now → $2.26 mid-life (likely $2.40–$4.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 542 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $49 (overshoots $2.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $21 below CC-SS $67.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.53 collected) or spot ≥ $47.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$57,124 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $47): -$32,648 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $65): -$1,170 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,064 (+$23,306 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,096 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,968, the opportunity cost of earning $8,480/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 17 × $45 | 7 Aug | 3d | 9.7% | 78%hist 92% | 45%hist 32% | +13pp | $1,649 | $16,490 | +$8,010 | $37,340 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $45 9.7% OTM over spot $41.02 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $1.01 mid) = $1,649 credit for the 3d cycle → $16,490/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $46.01) 83% EV / mo +$7,463 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,068/mo median; plan ~$3,446/mo after 68% keep · $18,122 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.9-3.0], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,977 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $64 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.02/sh now → $2.13 mid-life (likely $2.44–$4.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 928 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $47 (overshoots $2.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $23 below CC-SS $67.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.97 collected) or spot ≥ $46.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$57,124 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $45): -$37,340 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $65): -$877 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,464 (+$18,906 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,096 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,368, the opportunity cost of earning $16,490/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 12 × $55 | 14 Aug | 10d | 34.1% | 93%hist 99% | 14%hist 6% | +1pp | $444 | $1,332 | -$6,888 | $15,078 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 12 × $55 34.1% OTM over spot $41.02 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.43 mid) = $444 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,332/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $55.44) 94% EV / mo +$704 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 44% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-422/mo median; plan ~$-287/mo after 68% keep · $-2,968 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.1-4.8], measured ONLY among the 44% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,692 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $64 @ 80% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.05/sh now → $4.28 mid-life (likely $3.28–$5.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 320 simulated challenges: the $55 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $57 (overshoots $2.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $13 below CC-SS $67.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $55.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$57,124 − CC assignment net of premium (12 × $55): -$15,078 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $65): -$2,340 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,664 (+$39,706 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,096 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,568, the opportunity cost of earning $1,332/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $53 | 14 Aug | 10d | 29.2% | 91%hist 99% | 19%hist 6% | +5pp | $1,120 | $3,360 | -$4,860 | $28,750 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $53 29.2% OTM over spot $41.02 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.63 mid) = $1,120 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,360/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $53) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $53.63) 92% EV / mo +$1,722 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $598/mo median; plan ~$407/mo after 68% keep · $2,361 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.1-3.7], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,993 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $62 @ 80% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.73/sh now → $4.06 mid-life (likely $3.54–$5.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 463 simulated challenges: the $53 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $55 (overshoots $2.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $53 is $15 below CC-SS $67.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.56 collected) or spot ≥ $53.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $53)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$57,124 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $53): -$28,750 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,996 (+$28,374 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,096 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,900, the opportunity cost of earning $3,360/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $50 | 14 Aug | 10d | 21.9% | 85%hist 95% | 31%hist 22% | +6pp | $1,862 | $5,586 | -$2,634 | $32,214 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $50 21.9% OTM over spot $41.02 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.04 mid) = $1,862 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,586/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $51.04) 88% EV / mo +$2,552 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,344/mo median; plan ~$914/mo after 68% keep · $6,997 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.2-4.1], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,228 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $60 @ 82% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.27/sh now → $3.73 mid-life (likely $3.66–$5.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.98/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 780 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $52 (overshoots $2.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $18 below CC-SS $67.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.98 collected) or spot ≥ $51.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$57,124 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $50): -$32,214 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$292 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,753 (+$24,617 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,096 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,657, the opportunity cost of earning $5,586/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $48 | 14 Aug | 10d | 17.0% | 80%hist 95% | 42%hist 32% | +8pp | $2,740 | $8,220 | — | $37,130 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48 17.0% OTM over spot $41.02 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.44 mid) = $2,740 credit for the 10d cycle → $8,220/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $49.44) 84% EV / mo +$3,313 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,153/mo median; plan ~$1,464/mo after 68% keep · $10,886 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.2-4.2], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,302 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $60 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.97/sh now → $3.52 mid-life (likely $3.66–$5.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,002 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $50 (overshoots $1.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $20 below CC-SS $67.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.37 collected) or spot ≥ $49.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$57,124 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48): -$37,130 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,376 (+$19,994 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,096 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,280, the opportunity cost of earning $8,220/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $43 | 14 Aug | 10d | 4.8% | 63%hist 78% | 81%hist 81% | +11pp | $5,491 | $16,473 | +$8,253 | $41,885 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $43 4.8% OTM over spot $41.02 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $3.00 mid) = $5,491 credit for the 10d cycle → $16,473/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $45.99) 74% EV / mo +$4,165 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,394/mo median; plan ~$2,308/mo after 68% keep · $16,172 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.9-3.8], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$241 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $62 @ 93% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.26/sh now → $3.02 mid-life (likely $3.99–$5.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.89/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,949 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $45 (overshoots $1.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $25 below CC-SS $67.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.72/sh (~25% of the $2.89 collected) or spot ≥ $45.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-57,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$57,124 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $43): -$41,885 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$292 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,424 (+$14,946 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,096 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,328, the opportunity cost of earning $16,473/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.061 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$57,124 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-6,096
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $47 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.53 | 16/20 | $8,480 | $7,239 | 87% | 89% | +$4,611 | -$32,648 | 238.3% | $-34,064 (vs do-nothing $-27,968) |
| $46 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.72 | 12/20 | $8,640 | $7,411 | 83% | 86% | +$4,286 | -$25,458 | 185.8% | $-28,044 (vs do-nothing $-21,948) |
| $48 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.37 | 20/20 | $8,220 | $6,967 | 80% | 84% | +$3,313 | -$37,130 | 271.0% | $-37,376 (vs do-nothing $-31,280) |
| $45 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.97 | 9/20 | $8,730 | $7,510 | 78% | 83% | +$3,951 | -$19,768 | 144.3% | $-23,232 (vs do-nothing $-17,136) |
| $47 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.59 | 17/20 | $8,109 | $6,865 | 77% | 82% | +$2,979 | -$32,886 | 240.0% | $-34,010 (vs do-nothing $-27,914) |
| $46 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.85 | 15/20 | $8,325 | $7,087 | 74% | 80% | +$2,790 | -$30,127 | 219.9% | $-31,836 (vs do-nothing $-25,740) |
| $44 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.27 | 7/20 | $8,890 | $7,676 | 73% | 80% | +$3,591 | -$15,865 | 115.8% | $-19,914 (vs do-nothing $-13,818) |
| $46 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.62 | 18/20 | $8,322 | $7,075 | 71% | 78% | +$2,310 | -$34,767 | 253.8% | $-35,598 (vs do-nothing $-29,502) |
| $45 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.15 | 13/20 | $8,385 | $7,153 | 71% | 78% | +$2,557 | -$27,020 | 197.2% | $-29,314 (vs do-nothing $-23,218) |
| $46 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.35 | 20/20 | $8,375 | $7,122 | 70% | 78% | +$1,880 | -$37,170 | 271.3% | $-37,416 (vs do-nothing $-31,320) |
| $45 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 16/20 | $8,471 | $7,229 | 69% | 77% | +$2,297 | -$31,896 | 232.8% | $-33,312 (vs do-nothing $-27,216) |
| $45 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.85 | 17/20 | $8,181 | $6,937 | 67% | 76% | +$1,992 | -$32,444 | 236.8% | $-33,568 (vs do-nothing $-27,472) |
| $44 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.49 | 11/20 | $8,217 | $6,991 | 67% | 76% | +$2,267 | -$23,589 | 172.2% | $-26,468 (vs do-nothing $-20,372) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.62 | 5/20 | $8,100 | $6,892 | 66% | 76% | +$2,847 | -$11,657 | 85.1% | $-16,291 (vs do-nothing $-10,195) |
| $44 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.94 | 16/20 | $8,301 | $7,060 | 65% | 75% | +$1,195 | -$33,592 | 245.2% | $-35,008 (vs do-nothing $-28,912) |
| $44 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $4.05 | 16/20 | $8,100 | $6,859 | 65% | 75% | +$1,583 | -$31,816 | 232.2% | $-33,232 (vs do-nothing $-27,136) |
| $43 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.89 | 10/20 | $8,670 | $7,447 | 63% | 74% | +$2,192 | -$22,045 | 160.9% | $-25,216 (vs do-nothing $-19,120) |
| $43 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.80 | 13/20 | $8,718 | $7,485 | 62% | 74% | +$2,096 | -$27,475 | 200.6% | $-29,769 (vs do-nothing $-23,673) |
| $43 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $4.50 | 15/20 | $8,438 | $7,199 | 62% | 74% | +$1,618 | -$30,652 | 223.7% | $-32,361 (vs do-nothing $-26,265) |
| $42 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.09 | 4/20 | $8,360 | $7,155 | 60% | 73% | +$2,676 | -$9,538 | 69.6% | $-14,464 (vs do-nothing $-8,368) |
| $42 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $5.00 | 13/20 | $8,125 | $6,893 | 59% | 73% | +$1,544 | -$27,215 | 198.7% | $-29,509 (vs do-nothing $-23,413) |
| $42 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.15 | 12/20 | $8,788 | $7,559 | 59% | 72% | +$1,805 | -$26,142 | 190.8% | $-28,728 (vs do-nothing $-22,632) |
| $42 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.30 | 9/20 | $8,910 | $7,690 | 59% | 72% | +$1,980 | -$20,371 | 148.7% | $-23,835 (vs do-nothing $-17,739) |
| $41 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $5.30 | 13/20 | $8,612 | $7,380 | 56% | 71% | +$1,304 | -$28,125 | 205.3% | $-30,419 (vs do-nothing $-24,323) |
| $41 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.60 | 10/20 | $8,118 | $6,894 | 55% | 71% | +$1,497 | -$22,335 | 163.0% | $-25,506 (vs do-nothing $-19,410) |
| $41 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.90 | 7/20 | $8,190 | $6,976 | 54% | 70% | +$1,834 | -$16,124 | 117.7% | $-20,173 (vs do-nothing $-14,077) |
| $41 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.57 | 4/20 | $10,280 | $9,075 | 53% | 70% | +$2,780 | -$9,746 | 71.1% | $-14,672 (vs do-nothing $-8,576) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.