20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $67.36 (banked floor $66.96) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $13,556/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,283/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-56,790 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 2d | 14 × $45 | 85% | $7,140 | $6,002 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 14 Aug 2026 · 9d | 20 × $46 | 78% | $7,133 | $1,345 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 18 × $51 | 7 Aug | 2d | 26.8% | 97%hist 99% | 5%hist 1% | +1pp | $90 | $1,350 | -$5,790 | $29,355 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $51 26.8% OTM over spot $40.23 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.09 mid) = $90 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,350/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $51.09) 98% EV / mo +$768 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-353/mo median; plan ~$-240/mo after 68% keep · $-2,485 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,866 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $66 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.32/sh now → $1.64 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $16 below CC-SS $67.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $51.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.36, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,790 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,983 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $51): -$29,355 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $65): -$456 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,618 (+$26,172 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,364 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,254, the opportunity cost of earning $1,350/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 17 × $47 | 7 Aug | 2d | 16.8% | 92%hist 99% | 17%hist 6% | +5pp | $306 | $4,590 | -$2,550 | $34,303 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $47 16.8% OTM over spot $40.23 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.21 mid) = $306 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,590/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $47.20) 92% EV / mo +$1,798 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,085/mo median; plan ~$738/mo after 68% keep · $3,963 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.9], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,188 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $62 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.07/sh now → $1.47 mid-life (likely $1.50–$2.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 222 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $49 (overshoots $1.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $20 below CC-SS $67.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $47.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.36, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,790 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,983 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $47): -$34,303 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $65): -$684 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,794 (+$20,996 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,364 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,430, the opportunity cost of earning $4,590/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $47 | 7 Aug | 2d | 16.8% | 92%hist 99% | 17%hist 6% | +5pp | $360 | $5,400 | -$1,740 | $40,357 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $47 16.8% OTM over spot $40.23 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.21 mid) = $360 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $47.20) 92% EV / mo +$2,115 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,668/mo median; plan ~$1,134/mo after 68% keep · $5,267 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.2], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,574 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $62 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.07/sh now → $1.47 mid-life (likely $1.52–$2.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 239 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $49 (overshoots $1.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $20 below CC-SS $67.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $47.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.36, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,790 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,983 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $47): -$40,357 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,164 (+$15,626 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,364 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,800, the opportunity cost of earning $5,400/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 14 × $45 | 7 Aug | 2d | 11.8% | 85%hist 95% | 31%hist 22% | +7pp | $476 | $7,140 | — | $30,826 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $45 11.8% OTM over spot $40.23 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.37 mid) = $476 credit for the 2d cycle → $7,140/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $45.37) 87% EV / mo +$1,881 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,064/mo median; plan ~$1,403/mo after 68% keep · $8,019 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.7-3.2], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,459 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $60 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.95/sh now → $1.38 mid-life (likely $1.56–$2.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 478 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $47 (overshoots $2.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $22 below CC-SS $67.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.34 collected) or spot ≥ $45.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.36, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,790 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,983 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $45): -$30,826 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $65): -$1,367 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,000 (+$23,790 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,364 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,636, the opportunity cost of earning $7,140/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $44 | 7 Aug | 2d | 9.4% | 80%hist 95% | 41%hist 32% | +9pp | $931 | $13,965 | +$6,825 | $43,450 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $44 9.4% OTM over spot $40.23 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.53 mid) = $931 credit for the 2d cycle → $13,965/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $44.53) 83% EV / mo +$3,269 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,193/mo median; plan ~$2,851/mo after 68% keep · $19,059 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [0.8-4.0], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,616 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $64 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.90/sh now → $1.34 mid-life (likely $1.52–$3.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 693 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $46 (overshoots $2.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $23 below CC-SS $67.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $44.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.36, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,790 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,983 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $44): -$43,450 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$228 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,485 (+$12,305 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,364 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-39,121, the opportunity cost of earning $13,965/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 12 × $52 | 14 Aug | 9d | 29.2% | 92%hist 99% | 17%hist 6% | +1pp | $396 | $1,320 | -$5,813 | $18,034 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 12 × $52 29.2% OTM over spot $40.23 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.39 mid) = $396 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,320/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $52.39) 92% EV / mo +$447 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-386/mo median; plan ~$-263/mo after 68% keep · $-2,889 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.2], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,335 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $62 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.39/sh now → $3.11 mid-life (likely $2.49–$4.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 355 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $54 (overshoots $1.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $15 below CC-SS $67.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $52.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.36, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,790 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,983 − CC assignment net of premium (12 × $52): -$18,034 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $65): -$1,823 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,664 (+$36,126 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,364 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,300, the opportunity cost of earning $1,320/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $52 | 14 Aug | 9d | 29.2% | 92%hist 99% | 17%hist 6% | +4pp | $660 | $2,200 | -$4,933 | $30,057 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $52 29.2% OTM over spot $40.23 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.39 mid) = $660 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $52.39) 92% EV / mo +$744 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-12/mo median; plan ~$-8/mo after 68% keep · $-64 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.3-4.7], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,559 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $62 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.39/sh now → $3.11 mid-life (likely $2.46–$4.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 363 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $54 (overshoots $1.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $15 below CC-SS $67.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $52.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.36, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,790 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,983 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $52): -$30,057 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,864 (+$25,926 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,364 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,500, the opportunity cost of earning $2,200/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $48 | 14 Aug | 9d | 19.3% | 84%hist 95% | 34%hist 22% | +5pp | $1,406 | $4,687 | -$2,447 | $35,375 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $48 19.3% OTM over spot $40.23 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.80 mid) = $1,406 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,687/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $48.80) 86% EV / mo +$1,181 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $865/mo median; plan ~$588/mo after 68% keep · $3,947 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.2-3.6], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,853 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $59 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.91/sh now → $2.77 mid-life (likely $2.63–$4.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.74/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 809 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $50 (overshoots $1.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $19 below CC-SS $67.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.74 collected) or spot ≥ $48.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.36, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,790 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,983 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $48): -$35,375 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$228 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,410 (+$20,380 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,364 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,046, the opportunity cost of earning $4,687/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $46 | 14 Aug | 9d | 14.3% | 78%hist 92% | 46%hist 32% | +7pp | $2,140 | $7,133 | — | $40,577 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $46 14.3% OTM over spot $40.23 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.14 mid) = $2,140 credit for the 9d cycle → $7,133/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $47.14) 82% EV / mo +$1,406 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 39% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,366/mo median; plan ~$929/mo after 68% keep · $7,737 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.3-4.6], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,067 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $59 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.68/sh now → $2.60 mid-life (likely $2.83–$4.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,066 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $48 (overshoots $1.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $21 below CC-SS $67.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.07 collected) or spot ≥ $47.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.36, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,790 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,983 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $46): -$40,577 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,384 (+$15,406 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,364 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,020, the opportunity cost of earning $7,133/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $42 | 14 Aug | 9d | 4.4% | 62%hist 78% | 81%hist 81% | +8pp | $4,142 | $13,807 | +$6,673 | $44,039 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $42 4.4% OTM over spot $40.23 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $2.25 mid) = $4,142 credit for the 9d cycle → $13,807/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $44.26) 72% EV / mo +$1,573 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,525/mo median; plan ~$1,717/mo after 68% keep · $12,520 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.1-3.7], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$205 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $62 @ 94% POP 93% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.23/sh now → $2.29 mid-life (likely $2.99–$4.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,939 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $44 (overshoots $1.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $25 below CC-SS $67.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.55/sh (~25% of the $2.18 collected) or spot ≥ $44.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.36, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-56,790 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$55,983 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $42): -$44,039 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$228 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,074 (+$11,716 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,364 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-39,710, the opportunity cost of earning $13,807/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 30 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.032 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$55,983 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,364
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.34 | 14/20 | $7,140 | $5,947 | 85% | 87% | +$1,881 | -$30,826 | 225.0% | $-33,000 (vs do-nothing $-27,636) |
| $44 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.49 | 10/20 | $7,350 | $6,217 | 80% | 83% | +$1,721 | -$22,868 | 166.9% | $-25,954 (vs do-nothing $-20,590) |
| $46 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.07 | 20/20 | $7,133 | $5,850 | 78% | 82% | +$1,406 | -$40,577 | 296.2% | $-41,384 (vs do-nothing $-36,020) |
| $45 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.30 | 16/20 | $6,933 | $5,710 | 75% | 79% | +$1,270 | -$33,693 | 245.9% | $-35,412 (vs do-nothing $-30,048) |
| $46 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.87 | 20/20 | $7,012 | $5,729 | 74% | 79% | +$1,437 | -$38,977 | 284.5% | $-39,784 (vs do-nothing $-34,420) |
| $43 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.70 | 7/20 | $7,350 | $6,262 | 74% | 79% | +$1,505 | -$16,561 | 120.9% | $-20,330 (vs do-nothing $-14,966) |
| $46 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.60 | 20/20 | $6,783 | $5,499 | 72% | 78% | +$911 | -$37,517 | 273.8% | $-38,324 (vs do-nothing $-32,960) |
| $45 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.14 | 17/20 | $6,821 | $5,583 | 72% | 78% | +$1,296 | -$34,371 | 250.9% | $-35,862 (vs do-nothing $-30,498) |
| $44 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.55 | 14/20 | $7,233 | $6,040 | 71% | 77% | +$1,144 | -$30,532 | 222.9% | $-32,706 (vs do-nothing $-27,342) |
| $45 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.97 | 18/20 | $6,973 | $5,720 | 70% | 77% | +$1,036 | -$34,899 | 254.7% | $-36,162 (vs do-nothing $-30,798) |
| $44 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.40 | 16/20 | $7,200 | $5,977 | 68% | 76% | +$1,154 | -$33,533 | 244.8% | $-35,252 (vs do-nothing $-29,888) |
| $42 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.96 | 5/20 | $7,200 | $6,142 | 67% | 74% | +$1,111 | -$12,199 | 89.0% | $-16,424 (vs do-nothing $-11,060) |
| $44 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.15 | 17/20 | $6,985 | $5,746 | 67% | 75% | +$734 | -$34,354 | 250.8% | $-35,845 (vs do-nothing $-30,481) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.85 | 11/20 | $6,783 | $5,635 | 67% | 75% | +$942 | -$24,759 | 180.7% | $-27,617 (vs do-nothing $-22,253) |
| $43 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.72 | 14/20 | $7,140 | $5,947 | 65% | 74% | +$1,008 | -$30,294 | 221.1% | $-32,468 (vs do-nothing $-27,104) |
| $43 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.45 | 16/20 | $7,200 | $5,977 | 64% | 74% | +$618 | -$33,453 | 244.2% | $-35,172 (vs do-nothing $-29,808) |
| $42 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.18 | 10/20 | $7,267 | $6,133 | 62% | 72% | +$828 | -$23,178 | 169.2% | $-26,264 (vs do-nothing $-20,900) |
| $42 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 13/20 | $7,312 | $6,134 | 62% | 72% | +$736 | -$29,066 | 212.2% | $-31,468 (vs do-nothing $-26,104) |
| $42 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.80 | 14/20 | $6,939 | $5,746 | 62% | 72% | +$509 | -$30,182 | 220.3% | $-32,356 (vs do-nothing $-26,992) |
| $41 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.29 | 4/20 | $7,740 | $6,697 | 59% | 70% | +$794 | -$10,027 | 73.2% | $-14,480 (vs do-nothing $-9,116) |
| $41 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $4.15 | 13/20 | $7,037 | $5,859 | 59% | 71% | +$385 | -$28,871 | 210.7% | $-31,273 (vs do-nothing $-25,909) |
| $41 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.35 | 11/20 | $6,909 | $5,761 | 58% | 70% | +$506 | -$25,309 | 184.7% | $-28,167 (vs do-nothing $-22,803) |
| $41 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.55 | 8/20 | $6,800 | $5,697 | 58% | 70% | +$599 | -$19,047 | 139.0% | $-22,588 (vs do-nothing $-17,224) |
| $40 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $4.65 | 12/20 | $7,278 | $6,115 | 55% | 69% | +$453 | -$27,250 | 198.9% | $-29,880 (vs do-nothing $-24,516) |
| $40 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.85 | 10/20 | $7,219 | $6,085 | 54% | 68% | +$548 | -$23,508 | 171.6% | $-26,594 (vs do-nothing $-21,230) |
| $40 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.99 | 7/20 | $6,977 | $5,888 | 53% | 67% | +$495 | -$17,058 | 124.5% | $-20,827 (vs do-nothing $-15,463) |
| $39.50 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.00 | 10/20 | $7,500 | $6,367 | 52% | 67% | +$371 | -$23,858 | 174.1% | $-26,944 (vs do-nothing $-21,580) |
| $39.50 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.20 | 7/20 | $7,467 | $6,378 | 50% | 66% | +$404 | -$17,261 | 126.0% | $-21,030 (vs do-nothing $-15,666) |
| $40 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.67 | 3/20 | $7,515 | $6,487 | 50% | 65% | +$283 | -$7,707 | 56.3% | $-12,387 (vs do-nothing $-7,023) |
| $39.50 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.90 | 3/20 | $8,550 | $7,522 | 45% | 63% | +$120 | -$7,788 | 56.8% | $-12,468 (vs do-nothing $-7,104) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.