20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $67.08 (banked floor $65.44) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $12,529/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $300/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-44,400 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 11 Sep 2026 · 3d | 18 × $53 | 89% | $6,480 | $5,593 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 18 Sep 2026 · 10d | 20 × $53 | 78% | $6,480 | $1,128 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 15 × $65 | 11 Sep | 3d | 38.6% | 99+%hist 96% | 0%hist 3% | -1pp | $30 | $300 | -$6,180 | $3,093 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $65 38.6% OTM over spot $46.91 11 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.03 mid) = $30 credit for the 3d cycle → $300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $65) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $65.03) 99+% EV / mo +$299 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-40/mo median; plan ~$-27/mo after 68% keep · $-252 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.6-2.9], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,329 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $83 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.17/sh now → $2.24 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $65 is $2 below CC-SS $67.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $65.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $65)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-44,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$45,394 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $65): -$3,093 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $65): -$961 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,059 (+$41,341 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,849 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-210, the opportunity cost of earning $300/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 16 × $54 | 11 Sep | 3d | 15.1% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 13% | +5pp | $416 | $4,160 | -$2,320 | $20,515 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $54 15.1% OTM over spot $46.91 11 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.29 mid) = $416 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,160/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $54) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $54.28) 92% EV / mo +$2,204 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,427/mo median; plan ~$1,651/mo after 68% keep · $9,806 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,285 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $72 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.39/sh now → $1.69 mid-life (likely $1.61–$3.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 240 simulated challenges: the $54 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $56 (overshoots $1.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $54 is $13 below CC-SS $67.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $54.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $54)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-44,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$45,394 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $54): -$20,515 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $65): -$769 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,289 (+$24,111 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,849 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,440, the opportunity cost of earning $4,160/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $54 | 11 Sep | 3d | 15.1% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 13% | +5pp | $520 | $5,200 | -$1,280 | $25,643 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $54 15.1% OTM over spot $46.91 11 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.29 mid) = $520 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $54) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $54.28) 92% EV / mo +$2,755 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,870/mo median; plan ~$1,952/mo after 68% keep · $9,236 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.6], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,856 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $72 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.39/sh now → $1.69 mid-life (likely $1.56–$2.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 255 simulated challenges: the $54 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $56 (overshoots $1.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $54 is $13 below CC-SS $67.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $54.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $54)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-44,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$45,394 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $54): -$25,643 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,649 (+$19,751 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,849 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,800, the opportunity cost of earning $5,200/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $53 | 11 Sep | 3d | 13.0% | 89%hist 86% | 23%hist 26% | +5pp | $648 | $6,480 | — | $24,699 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $53 13.0% OTM over spot $46.91 11 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.38 mid) = $648 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $53) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $53.38) 90% EV / mo +$3,264 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,501/mo median; plan ~$2,381/mo after 68% keep · $12,082 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-2.6], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,307 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $71 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.32/sh now → $1.64 mid-life (likely $1.55–$2.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 355 simulated challenges: the $53 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $55 (overshoots $1.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $53 is $14 below CC-SS $67.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.36 collected) or spot ≥ $53.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $53)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-44,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$45,394 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $53): -$24,699 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $65): -$384 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,089 (+$20,311 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,849 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,240, the opportunity cost of earning $6,480/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $51 | 11 Sep | 3d | 8.7% | 81%hist 86% | 40%hist 31% | +9pp | $1,260 | $12,600 | +$6,120 | $30,903 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $51 8.7% OTM over spot $46.91 11 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.64 mid) = $1,260 credit for the 3d cycle → $12,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $51.64) 84% EV / mo +$4,967 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,507/mo median; plan ~$3,745/mo after 68% keep · $20,125 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.3], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,840 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $69 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.19/sh now → $1.55 mid-life (likely $1.60–$2.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 727 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $53 (overshoots $1.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $16 below CC-SS $67.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.63 collected) or spot ≥ $51.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-44,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$45,394 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $51): -$30,903 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,909 (+$14,491 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,849 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,060, the opportunity cost of earning $12,600/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 7 × $65 | 18 Sep | 10d | 38.6% | 97%hist 96% | 6%hist 3% | +0pp | $112 | $336 | -$6,144 | $1,345 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $65 38.6% OTM over spot $46.91 18 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.17 mid) = $112 credit for the 10d cycle → $336/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $65) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $65.17) 97% EV / mo +$239 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $578/mo median; plan ~$393/mo after 68% keep · $2,340 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.6-3.1], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,389 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $83 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.05/sh now → $3.57 mid-life (likely $2.14–$4.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 127 simulated challenges: the $65 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $67 (overshoots $2.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $65 is $2 below CC-SS $67.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $65.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $65)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-44,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$45,394 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $65): -$1,345 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $65): -$2,498 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,849 (+$41,551 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,849 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-0, the opportunity cost of earning $336/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $60 | 18 Sep | 10d | 27.9% | 93%hist 96% | 15%hist 13% | +2pp | $680 | $2,040 | -$4,440 | $13,483 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $60 27.9% OTM over spot $46.91 18 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.36 mid) = $680 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,040/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $60) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $60.36) 93% EV / mo +$993 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,029/mo median; plan ~$700/mo after 68% keep · $4,247 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.2], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,639 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $78 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.46/sh now → $3.16 mid-life (likely $2.50–$4.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 307 simulated challenges: the $60 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $62 (overshoots $2.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $60 is $7 below CC-SS $67.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.34 collected) or spot ≥ $60.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $60)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-44,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$45,394 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $60): -$13,483 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,489 (+$31,911 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,849 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,640, the opportunity cost of earning $2,040/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 18 × $55 | 18 Sep | 10d | 17.3% | 84%hist 86% | 34%hist 31% | +4pp | $1,386 | $4,158 | -$2,322 | $20,361 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $55 17.3% OTM over spot $46.91 18 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.80 mid) = $1,386 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,158/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $55.80) 86% EV / mo +$1,036 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,914/mo median; plan ~$1,302/mo after 68% keep · $8,441 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.8-3.1], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,599 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $73 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.91/sh now → $2.77 mid-life (likely $2.77–$4.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 731 simulated challenges: the $55 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $57 (overshoots $1.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $12 below CC-SS $67.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.77 collected) or spot ≥ $55.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-44,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$45,394 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $55): -$20,361 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $65): -$384 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,751 (+$24,649 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,849 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,902, the opportunity cost of earning $4,158/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $53 | 18 Sep | 10d | 13.0% | 78%hist 83% | 46%hist 39% | +4pp | $2,160 | $6,480 | — | $26,003 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $53 13.0% OTM over spot $46.91 18 Sep 2026 (10d, $1.12 mid) = $2,160 credit for the 10d cycle → $6,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $53) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $54.12) 81% EV / mo +$1,118 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,820/mo median; plan ~$1,917/mo after 68% keep · $8,946 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.7], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,079 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $71 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.70/sh now → $2.62 mid-life (likely $2.70–$4.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,107 simulated challenges: the $53 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $55 (overshoots $1.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $53 is $14 below CC-SS $67.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.08 collected) or spot ≥ $54.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $53)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-44,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$45,394 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $53): -$26,003 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,009 (+$19,391 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,849 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,160, the opportunity cost of earning $6,480/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $49 | 18 Sep | 10d | 4.5% | 63%hist 65% | 79%hist 64% | +8pp | $4,220 | $12,660 | +$6,180 | $31,943 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $49 4.5% OTM over spot $46.91 18 Sep 2026 (10d, $2.16 mid) = $4,220 credit for the 10d cycle → $12,660/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $51.16) 72% EV / mo +$875 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,055/mo median; plan ~$2,758/mo after 68% keep · $14,443 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.2], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$443 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $67 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.29/sh now → $2.33 mid-life (likely $3.07–$4.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,928 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $51 (overshoots $1.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49 is $18 below CC-SS $67.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.53/sh (~25% of the $2.11 collected) or spot ≥ $51.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $49)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $67.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-44,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$45,394 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $49): -$31,943 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,949 (+$13,451 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,849 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,100, the opportunity cost of earning $12,660/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 49 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.125 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$45,394 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,849
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $53 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.36 | 18/20 | $6,480 | $6,276 | 89% | 90% | +$3,264 | -$24,699 | 180.3% | $-24,089 (vs do-nothing $-21,240) |
| $52 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.47 | 14/20 | $6,580 | $6,568 | 85% | 87% | +$2,916 | -$20,456 | 149.3% | $-20,615 (vs do-nothing $-17,766) |
| $51 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.63 | 10/20 | $6,300 | $6,480 | 81% | 84% | +$2,484 | -$15,452 | 112.8% | $-16,379 (vs do-nothing $-13,530) |
| $53 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.08 | 20/20 | $6,480 | $6,180 | 78% | 81% | +$1,118 | -$26,003 | 189.8% | $-25,009 (vs do-nothing $-22,160) |
| $50 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.84 | 8/20 | $6,720 | $6,996 | 75% | 80% | +$2,314 | -$12,993 | 94.8% | $-14,305 (vs do-nothing $-11,456) |
| $52 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.28 | 17/20 | $6,528 | $6,372 | 75% | 79% | +$918 | -$23,463 | 171.3% | $-23,045 (vs do-nothing $-20,196) |
| $49.50 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.95 | 7/20 | $6,650 | $6,974 | 72% | 78% | +$2,042 | -$11,642 | 85.0% | $-13,146 (vs do-nothing $-10,297) |
| $52 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.91 | 19/20 | $6,404 | $6,152 | 71% | 76% | +$183 | -$25,026 | 182.7% | $-24,224 (vs do-nothing $-21,375) |
| $51 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.52 | 14/20 | $6,384 | $6,372 | 71% | 77% | +$738 | -$20,386 | 148.8% | $-20,545 (vs do-nothing $-17,696) |
| $49 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.10 | 6/20 | $6,600 | $6,972 | 69% | 76% | +$1,899 | -$10,189 | 74.4% | $-11,885 (vs do-nothing $-9,036) |
| $51 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.17 | 17/20 | $6,510 | $6,354 | 68% | 75% | +$93 | -$23,650 | 172.6% | $-23,232 (vs do-nothing $-20,383) |
| $50 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.81 | 12/20 | $6,516 | $6,600 | 67% | 74% | +$645 | -$18,326 | 133.8% | $-18,869 (vs do-nothing $-16,020) |
| $51 | 24d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.74 | 19/20 | $6,508 | $6,256 | 67% | 74% | $-158 | -$25,349 | 185.0% | $-24,547 (vs do-nothing $-21,698) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.47 | 15/20 | $6,538 | $6,478 | 65% | 73% | +$34 | -$21,918 | 160.0% | $-21,884 (vs do-nothing $-19,035) |
| $48.50 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.24 | 6/20 | $7,440 | $7,812 | 65% | 74% | +$1,867 | -$10,405 | 75.9% | $-12,101 (vs do-nothing $-9,252) |
| $50 | 24d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.05 | 17/20 | $6,481 | $6,325 | 64% | 72% | $-190 | -$23,854 | 174.1% | $-23,436 (vs do-nothing $-20,587) |
| $50 | 31d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.60 | 18/20 | $6,271 | $6,067 | 64% | 72% | $-232 | -$24,267 | 177.1% | $-23,657 (vs do-nothing $-20,808) |
| $50 | 38d | 16 Oct 2026 | $4.20 | 19/20 | $6,300 | $6,048 | 64% | 72% | $-98 | -$24,475 | 178.7% | $-23,673 (vs do-nothing $-20,824) |
| $49 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.11 | 10/20 | $6,330 | $6,510 | 63% | 72% | +$438 | -$15,972 | 116.6% | $-16,899 (vs do-nothing $-14,050) |
| $49 | 45d | 23 Oct 2026 | $4.95 | 19/20 | $6,270 | $6,018 | 62% | 71% | $-219 | -$24,950 | 182.1% | $-24,148 (vs do-nothing $-21,299) |
| $49 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.80 | 13/20 | $6,424 | $6,460 | 62% | 71% | $-29 | -$19,866 | 145.0% | $-20,217 (vs do-nothing $-17,368) |
| $49 | 38d | 16 Oct 2026 | $4.60 | 18/20 | $6,537 | $6,333 | 62% | 71% | $-51 | -$24,267 | 177.1% | $-23,657 (vs do-nothing $-20,808) |
| $49 | 24d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.35 | 15/20 | $6,281 | $6,221 | 62% | 71% | $-289 | -$22,098 | 161.3% | $-22,064 (vs do-nothing $-19,215) |
| $49 | 31d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.90 | 17/20 | $6,416 | $6,260 | 62% | 71% | $-332 | -$24,109 | 176.0% | $-23,691 (vs do-nothing $-20,842) |
| $48 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.42 | 5/20 | $7,100 | $7,520 | 61% | 72% | +$1,618 | -$8,831 | 64.5% | $-10,719 (vs do-nothing $-7,870) |
| $48 | 45d | 23 Oct 2026 | $5.35 | 18/20 | $6,420 | $6,216 | 60% | 71% | $-202 | -$24,717 | 180.4% | $-24,107 (vs do-nothing $-21,258) |
| $48 | 38d | 16 Oct 2026 | $5.00 | 16/20 | $6,316 | $6,208 | 59% | 70% | $-42 | -$22,531 | 164.5% | $-22,305 (vs do-nothing $-19,456) |
| $48 | 31d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.30 | 16/20 | $6,658 | $6,550 | 59% | 70% | $-310 | -$23,651 | 172.6% | $-23,425 (vs do-nothing $-20,576) |
| $48 | 24d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.80 | 14/20 | $6,650 | $6,638 | 59% | 69% | $-178 | -$21,394 | 156.2% | $-21,553 (vs do-nothing $-18,704) |
| $48 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.46 | 9/20 | $6,642 | $6,870 | 59% | 69% | +$303 | -$14,960 | 109.2% | $-16,079 (vs do-nothing $-13,230) |
| $48 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.15 | 12/20 | $6,671 | $6,755 | 59% | 69% | $-121 | -$19,118 | 139.5% | $-19,661 (vs do-nothing $-16,812) |
| $47 | 38d | 16 Oct 2026 | $5.35 | 15/20 | $6,336 | $6,276 | 57% | 69% | $-128 | -$22,098 | 161.3% | $-22,064 (vs do-nothing $-19,215) |
| $47.50 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.61 | 4/20 | $6,440 | $6,908 | 57% | 70% | +$1,288 | -$7,189 | 52.5% | $-9,269 (vs do-nothing $-6,420) |
| $47 | 45d | 23 Oct 2026 | $5.75 | 17/20 | $6,517 | $6,361 | 57% | 71% | +$855 | -$24,364 | 177.8% | $-23,946 (vs do-nothing $-21,097) |
| $47 | 31d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.70 | 14/20 | $6,368 | $6,356 | 56% | 68% | $-309 | -$21,534 | 157.2% | $-21,693 (vs do-nothing $-18,844) |
| $47.50 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.68 | 8/20 | $6,432 | $6,708 | 56% | 68% | +$289 | -$13,521 | 98.7% | $-14,833 (vs do-nothing $-11,984) |
| $47 | 24d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.15 | 13/20 | $6,744 | $6,780 | 56% | 68% | $-299 | -$20,711 | 151.2% | $-21,062 (vs do-nothing $-18,213) |
| $47 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.55 | 10/20 | $6,265 | $6,445 | 55% | 67% | $-163 | -$16,532 | 120.7% | $-17,459 (vs do-nothing $-14,610) |
| $46 | 38d | 16 Oct 2026 | $5.80 | 14/20 | $6,411 | $6,399 | 55% | 68% | $-123 | -$21,394 | 156.2% | $-21,553 (vs do-nothing $-18,704) |
| $47 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.88 | 8/20 | $6,912 | $7,188 | 54% | 67% | +$229 | -$13,761 | 100.4% | $-15,073 (vs do-nothing $-12,224) |
| $46 | 45d | 23 Oct 2026 | $6.30 | 15/20 | $6,300 | $6,240 | 54% | 70% | +$841 | -$22,173 | 161.8% | $-22,139 (vs do-nothing $-19,290) |
| $46 | 31d | 9 Oct 2026 | $5.20 | 13/20 | $6,542 | $6,578 | 54% | 67% | $-237 | -$20,646 | 150.7% | $-20,997 (vs do-nothing $-18,148) |
| $47 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.85 | 4/20 | $7,400 | $7,868 | 53% | 68% | +$1,378 | -$7,293 | 53.2% | $-9,373 (vs do-nothing $-6,524) |
| $46 | 24d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.65 | 11/20 | $6,394 | $6,526 | 53% | 67% | $-209 | -$18,075 | 131.9% | $-18,810 (vs do-nothing $-15,961) |
| $46.50 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.10 | 7/20 | $6,510 | $6,834 | 52% | 66% | +$159 | -$12,237 | 89.3% | $-13,741 (vs do-nothing $-10,892) |
| $46 | 17d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.05 | 9/20 | $6,432 | $6,660 | 51% | 66% | $-112 | -$15,329 | 111.9% | $-16,448 (vs do-nothing $-13,599) |
| $46 | 10d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.35 | 7/20 | $7,035 | $7,359 | 49% | 65% | +$152 | -$12,412 | 90.6% | $-13,916 (vs do-nothing $-11,067) |
| $46.50 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $2.07 | 4/20 | $8,280 | $8,748 | 48% | 66% | +$1,279 | -$7,405 | 54.0% | $-9,485 (vs do-nothing $-6,636) |
| $46 | 3d | 11 Sep 2026 | $2.33 | 3/20 | $6,990 | $7,506 | 44% | 64% | +$922 | -$5,626 | 41.1% | $-7,898 (vs do-nothing $-5,049) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.