20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $66.97 (banked floor $65.33) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $11,507/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $243/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-45,120 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 11 Sep 2026 · 2d | 15 × $51 | 89% | $5,850 | $5,173 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 18 Sep 2026 · 9d | 19 × $52 | 81% | $5,763 | $1,618 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 17 × $60 | 11 Sep | 2d | 29.1% | 99%hist 96% | 2%hist 3% | -0pp | $17 | $255 | -$5,595 | $11,836 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $60 29.1% OTM over spot $46.48 11 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.02 mid) = $17 credit for the 2d cycle → $255/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $60) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $60.02) 99% EV / mo +$154 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -0pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $110/mo median; plan ~$75/mo after 68% keep · $126 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.5-2.0], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,701 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $79 @ 90% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.26/sh now → $1.60 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $60 is $7 below CC-SS $66.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.00/sh (~25% of the $0.01 collected) or spot ≥ $60.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $60)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,120 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,146 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $60): -$11,836 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $65): -$520 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,330 (+$33,790 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,891, the opportunity cost of earning $255/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 20 × $53 | 11 Sep | 2d | 14.0% | 95%hist 96% | 11%hist 13% | +4pp | $260 | $3,900 | -$1,950 | $27,685 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $53 14.0% OTM over spot $46.48 11 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.14 mid) = $260 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $53) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $53.14) 95% EV / mo +$2,569 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,547/mo median; plan ~$1,732/mo after 68% keep · $8,435 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.6-2.9], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,380 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $67 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.87/sh now → $1.32 mid-life (likely $1.20–$2.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 107 simulated challenges: the $53 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $54 (overshoots $1.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $53 is $14 below CC-SS $66.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $53.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $53)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,120 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,146 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $53): -$27,685 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,659 (+$18,461 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,220, the opportunity cost of earning $3,900/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $52 | 11 Sep | 2d | 11.9% | 92%hist 96% | 16%hist 13% | +4pp | $340 | $5,100 | -$750 | $29,605 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $52 11.9% OTM over spot $46.48 11 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.19 mid) = $340 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $52.19) 93% EV / mo +$2,888 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,099/mo median; plan ~$2,107/mo after 68% keep · $11,680 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.9-3.4], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,224 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $66 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.81/sh now → $1.28 mid-life (likely $1.28–$2.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 195 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $53 (overshoots $1.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $15 below CC-SS $66.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $52.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,120 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,146 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $52): -$29,605 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,579 (+$16,541 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,140, the opportunity cost of earning $5,100/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 15 × $51 | 11 Sep | 2d | 9.7% | 89%hist 86% | 23%hist 26% | +3pp | $390 | $5,850 | — | $23,569 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $51 9.7% OTM over spot $46.48 11 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.29 mid) = $390 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,850/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $51.29) 90% EV / mo +$3,032 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,547/mo median; plan ~$2,412/mo after 68% keep · $13,802 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,477 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $65 @ 89% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.76/sh now → $1.24 mid-life (likely $1.37–$2.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 347 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $52 (overshoots $1.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $16 below CC-SS $66.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $51.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,120 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,146 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $51): -$23,569 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $65): -$866 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,409 (+$21,711 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,970, the opportunity cost of earning $5,850/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $50 | 11 Sep | 2d | 7.6% | 84%hist 86% | 33%hist 31% | +12pp | $779 | $11,685 | +$5,835 | $31,469 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $50 7.6% OTM over spot $46.48 11 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.42 mid) = $779 credit for the 2d cycle → $11,685/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $50.42) 86% EV / mo +$5,609 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,826/mo median; plan ~$3,962/mo after 68% keep · $22,637 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.8-3.5], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,516 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $64 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.71/sh now → $1.21 mid-life (likely $1.29–$2.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 547 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $51 (overshoots $1.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $17 below CC-SS $66.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $50.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,120 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,146 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $50): -$31,469 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$173 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,616 (+$14,504 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,177, the opportunity cost of earning $11,685/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 9 × $65 | 18 Sep | 9d | 39.8% | 99%hist 96% | 1%hist 3% | -1pp | $81 | $270 | -$5,493 | $1,694 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $65 39.8% OTM over spot $46.48 18 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.10 mid) = $81 credit for the 9d cycle → $270/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $65) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $65.10) 99% EV / mo +$257 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $368/mo median; plan ~$250/mo after 68% keep · $2,461 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-4.1], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,864 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $74 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.63/sh now → $3.27 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $65 is $2 below CC-SS $66.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $65.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $65)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,120 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,146 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $65): -$1,694 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (11 × $65): -$1,906 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,574 (+$42,546 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-135, the opportunity cost of earning $270/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $60 | 18 Sep | 9d | 29.1% | 95%hist 96% | 9%hist 3% | +1pp | $400 | $1,333 | -$4,430 | $13,545 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $60 29.1% OTM over spot $46.48 18 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.22 mid) = $400 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,333/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $60) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $60.22) 96% EV / mo +$798 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $672/mo median; plan ~$457/mo after 68% keep · $3,167 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.6], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,342 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $67 @ 78% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.06/sh now → $2.87 mid-life (likely $1.96–$3.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 106 simulated challenges: the $60 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $62 (overshoots $1.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $60 is $7 below CC-SS $66.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $60.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $60)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,120 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,146 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $60): -$13,545 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,519 (+$32,601 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,080, the opportunity cost of earning $1,333/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $54 | 18 Sep | 9d | 16.2% | 87%hist 86% | 26%hist 26% | +6pp | $1,159 | $3,863 | -$1,900 | $23,489 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $54 16.2% OTM over spot $46.48 18 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.64 mid) = $1,159 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,863/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $54) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $54.64) 89% EV / mo +$2,027 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,009/mo median; plan ~$1,366/mo after 68% keep · $10,647 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-4.0], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,442 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $63 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.42/sh now → $2.42 mid-life (likely $2.15–$3.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 606 simulated challenges: the $54 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $55 (overshoots $1.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $54 is $13 below CC-SS $66.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.61 collected) or spot ≥ $54.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $54)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,120 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,146 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $54): -$23,489 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$173 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,636 (+$22,484 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,197, the opportunity cost of earning $3,863/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $52 | 18 Sep | 9d | 11.9% | 81%hist 86% | 40%hist 31% | +4pp | $1,729 | $5,763 | — | $26,719 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $52 11.9% OTM over spot $46.48 18 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.95 mid) = $1,729 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,763/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $52.95) 84% EV / mo +$2,374 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,577/mo median; plan ~$1,752/mo after 68% keep · $13,898 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-3.8], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,603 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $61 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.22/sh now → $2.28 mid-life (likely $2.27–$3.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.91/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 937 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $53 (overshoots $1.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $15 below CC-SS $66.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.91 collected) or spot ≥ $52.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,120 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,146 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $52): -$26,719 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$173 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,866 (+$19,254 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,427, the opportunity cost of earning $5,763/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $48 | 18 Sep | 9d | 3.3% | 62%hist 65% | 80%hist 79% | +8pp | $3,546 | $11,820 | +$6,057 | $30,605 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $48 3.3% OTM over spot $46.48 18 Sep 2026 (9d, $2.02 mid) = $3,546 credit for the 9d cycle → $11,820/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $50.02) 72% EV / mo +$2,502 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,720/mo median; plan ~$2,530/mo after 68% keep · $17,815 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-4.1], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 66% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$69 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $62 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.84/sh now → $2.01 mid-life (likely $2.65–$3.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,967 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $49 (overshoots $1.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $19 below CC-SS $66.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.49/sh (~25% of the $1.97 collected) or spot ≥ $50.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,120 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,146 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $48): -$30,605 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $65): -$347 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,925 (+$15,195 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,486, the opportunity cost of earning $11,820/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 31 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.126 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$46,146 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,439
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $51 | 2d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.26 | 15/20 | $5,850 | $5,832 | 89% | 90% | +$3,032 | -$23,569 | 172.0% | $-23,409 (vs do-nothing $-20,970) |
| $50 | 2d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.41 | 10/20 | $6,150 | $6,357 | 84% | 86% | +$2,952 | -$16,563 | 120.9% | $-17,269 (vs do-nothing $-14,830) |
| $52 | 9d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.91 | 19/20 | $5,763 | $5,565 | 81% | 84% | +$2,374 | -$26,719 | 195.0% | $-25,866 (vs do-nothing $-23,427) |
| $49.50 | 2d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.49 | 8/20 | $5,880 | $6,177 | 80% | 84% | +$2,550 | -$13,586 | 99.2% | $-14,639 (vs do-nothing $-12,200) |
| $51 | 9d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.09 | 16/20 | $5,813 | $5,750 | 77% | 81% | +$2,011 | -$23,812 | 173.8% | $-23,479 (vs do-nothing $-21,040) |
| $49 | 2d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.60 | 7/20 | $6,300 | $6,642 | 77% | 82% | +$2,525 | -$12,161 | 88.8% | $-13,387 (vs do-nothing $-10,948) |
| $48.50 | 2d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.72 | 6/20 | $6,480 | $6,867 | 73% | 79% | +$2,311 | -$10,652 | 77.7% | $-12,051 (vs do-nothing $-9,612) |
| $50 | 9d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.35 | 13/20 | $5,850 | $5,922 | 72% | 79% | +$1,789 | -$20,309 | 148.2% | $-20,496 (vs do-nothing $-18,057) |
| $51 | 16d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.76 | 18/20 | $5,940 | $5,787 | 72% | 78% | +$1,481 | -$25,583 | 186.7% | $-24,903 (vs do-nothing $-22,464) |
| $51 | 23d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.38 | 19/20 | $5,898 | $5,700 | 70% | 77% | +$1,319 | -$25,826 | 188.5% | $-24,973 (vs do-nothing $-22,534) |
| $50 | 16d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.05 | 15/20 | $5,766 | $5,747 | 69% | 76% | +$1,282 | -$22,384 | 163.4% | $-22,224 (vs do-nothing $-19,785) |
| $48 | 2d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.88 | 5/20 | $6,600 | $7,032 | 68% | 76% | +$2,171 | -$9,046 | 66.0% | $-10,619 (vs do-nothing $-8,180) |
| $49 | 9d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.65 | 11/20 | $6,050 | $6,212 | 67% | 75% | +$1,596 | -$17,955 | 131.1% | $-18,488 (vs do-nothing $-16,049) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50 | 23d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.68 | 17/20 | $5,943 | $5,834 | 67% | 75% | +$1,187 | -$24,297 | 177.4% | $-23,791 (vs do-nothing $-21,352) |
| $49 | 16d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.30 | 14/20 | $6,038 | $6,064 | 65% | 74% | +$1,022 | -$21,942 | 160.2% | $-21,955 (vs do-nothing $-19,516) |
| $49 | 23d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.00 | 15/20 | $5,870 | $5,851 | 64% | 74% | +$1,160 | -$22,459 | 163.9% | $-22,299 (vs do-nothing $-19,860) |
| $47.50 | 2d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.04 | 4/20 | $6,240 | $6,717 | 63% | 73% | +$1,748 | -$7,373 | 53.8% | $-9,119 (vs do-nothing $-6,680) |
| $48 | 9d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.97 | 9/20 | $5,910 | $6,162 | 62% | 72% | +$1,251 | -$15,302 | 111.7% | $-16,182 (vs do-nothing $-13,743) |
| $48 | 16d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.72 | 12/20 | $6,120 | $6,237 | 60% | 72% | +$1,002 | -$19,503 | 142.4% | $-19,863 (vs do-nothing $-17,424) |
| $48 | 23d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.40 | 13/20 | $5,765 | $5,837 | 60% | 72% | +$1,071 | -$20,244 | 147.8% | $-20,431 (vs do-nothing $-17,992) |
| $47.50 | 9d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.19 | 8/20 | $5,840 | $6,137 | 59% | 71% | +$1,182 | -$13,826 | 100.9% | $-14,879 (vs do-nothing $-12,440) |
| $47 | 2d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.21 | 4/20 | $7,260 | $7,737 | 57% | 70% | +$1,625 | -$7,505 | 54.8% | $-9,251 (vs do-nothing $-6,812) |
| $47 | 23d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.80 | 12/20 | $5,948 | $6,065 | 56% | 70% | +$977 | -$19,407 | 141.7% | $-19,767 (vs do-nothing $-17,328) |
| $47 | 16d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.10 | 10/20 | $5,812 | $6,019 | 56% | 69% | +$770 | -$16,873 | 123.2% | $-17,579 (vs do-nothing $-15,140) |
| $47 | 9d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.38 | 8/20 | $6,347 | $6,643 | 56% | 70% | +$1,152 | -$14,074 | 102.7% | $-15,127 (vs do-nothing $-12,688) |
| $46.50 | 9d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.61 | 7/20 | $6,090 | $6,432 | 53% | 68% | +$1,021 | -$12,504 | 91.3% | $-13,730 (vs do-nothing $-11,291) |
| $46 | 23d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.25 | 11/20 | $6,098 | $6,260 | 52% | 68% | +$888 | -$18,395 | 134.3% | $-18,928 (vs do-nothing $-16,489) |
| $46.50 | 2d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.45 | 3/20 | $6,525 | $7,047 | 52% | 68% | +$1,294 | -$5,707 | 41.7% | $-7,626 (vs do-nothing $-5,187) |
| $46 | 16d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.55 | 9/20 | $5,991 | $6,242 | 51% | 67% | +$663 | -$15,680 | 114.5% | $-16,560 (vs do-nothing $-14,121) |
| $46 | 9d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.84 | 7/20 | $6,627 | $6,968 | 50% | 67% | +$978 | -$12,693 | 92.6% | $-13,919 (vs do-nothing $-11,480) |
| $46 | 2d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.70 | 3/20 | $7,650 | $8,172 | 46% | 65% | +$1,256 | -$5,782 | 42.2% | $-7,701 (vs do-nothing $-5,262) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.