20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $66.61 (banked floor $64.96) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $11,720/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $355/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-49,670 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 8d | 18 × $48 | 78% | $5,940 | $1,971 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $61 | 18 Sep | 8d | 39.1% | 99%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | -0pp | $95 | $356 | -$5,584 | $10,555 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $61 39.1% OTM over spot $43.85 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.07 mid) = $95 credit for the 8d cycle → $356/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $61) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $61.07) 99% EV / mo +$249 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -0pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-56/mo median; plan ~$-38/mo after 68% keep · $-283 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.1-3.9], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,423 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $69 @ 80% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.10/sh now → $2.90 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $61 is $6 below CC-SS $66.61: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $61.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $61)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.61, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,670 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,289 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $61): -$10,555 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $62): -$446 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,381 (+$39,289 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,291 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,090, the opportunity cost of earning $356/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $52 | 18 Sep | 8d | 18.6% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 13% | +2pp | $640 | $2,400 | -$3,540 | $28,570 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $52 18.6% OTM over spot $43.85 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.35 mid) = $640 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $52.35) 92% EV / mo +$1,247 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 47% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,118/mo median; plan ~$760/mo after 68% keep · $6,567 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.2-4.1], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,816 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $59 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.15/sh now → $2.23 mid-life (likely $1.83–$3.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 308 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $53 (overshoots $1.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $15 below CC-SS $66.61: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $52.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.61, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,670 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,289 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $52): -$28,570 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,951 (+$21,719 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,291 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,660, the opportunity cost of earning $2,400/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $50 | 18 Sep | 8d | 14.0% | 86%hist 86% | 29%hist 26% | +4pp | $1,045 | $3,919 | -$2,021 | $30,505 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $50 14.0% OTM over spot $43.85 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.56 mid) = $1,045 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,919/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $50.56) 88% EV / mo +$1,864 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,825/mo median; plan ~$1,241/mo after 68% keep · $10,886 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.3-4.4], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,924 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $57 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.95/sh now → $2.09 mid-life (likely $1.84–$3.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 561 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $51 (overshoots $1.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $17 below CC-SS $66.61: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $50.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.61, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,670 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,289 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $50): -$30,505 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $62): -$446 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,331 (+$19,339 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,291 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,040, the opportunity cost of earning $3,919/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $48 | 18 Sep | 8d | 9.5% | 78%hist 83% | 45%hist 39% | +6pp | $1,584 | $5,940 | — | $31,905 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $48 9.5% OTM over spot $43.85 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.90 mid) = $1,584 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,940/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $48.90) 82% EV / mo +$2,274 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,347/mo median; plan ~$1,596/mo after 68% keep · $15,484 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.3-4.6], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,935 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $57 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.76/sh now → $1.95 mid-life (likely $2.03–$3.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.88/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 963 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $49 (overshoots $1.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $19 below CC-SS $66.61: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.88 collected) or spot ≥ $48.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.61, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,670 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,289 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $48): -$31,905 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $62): -$891 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,177 (+$17,493 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,291 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,886, the opportunity cost of earning $5,940/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $45.50 | 18 Sep | 8d | 3.8% | 64%hist 65% | 75%hist 64% | +10pp | $3,160 | $11,850 | +$5,910 | $39,050 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $45.50 3.8% OTM over spot $43.85 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $1.63 mid) = $3,160 credit for the 8d cycle → $11,850/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45.50) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $47.13) 74% EV / mo +$3,169 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,552/mo median; plan ~$2,415/mo after 68% keep · $20,684 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.4-4.6], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 59% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$426 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $58 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.53/sh now → $1.79 mid-life (likely $2.31–$3.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,761 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $47 (overshoots $1.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45.50 is $21 below CC-SS $66.61: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.40/sh (~25% of the $1.58 collected) or spot ≥ $47.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.61, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,670 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,289 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $45.50): -$39,050 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,431 (+$11,239 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,291 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,140, the opportunity cost of earning $11,850/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.105 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$50,289 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-8,291
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $48 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.88 | 18/20 | $5,940 | $5,645 | 78% | 82% | +$2,274 | -$31,905 | 232.9% | $-32,177 (vs do-nothing $-23,886) |
| $47.50 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.97 | 17/20 | $6,184 | $5,919 | 76% | 81% | +$2,137 | -$30,830 | 225.0% | $-31,547 (vs do-nothing $-23,256) |
| $48 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.52 | 20/20 | $6,080 | $5,725 | 73% | 79% | +$1,874 | -$34,170 | 249.4% | $-33,551 (vs do-nothing $-25,260) |
| $47 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.11 | 15/20 | $6,244 | $6,039 | 73% | 79% | +$2,078 | -$27,743 | 202.5% | $-29,351 (vs do-nothing $-21,060) |
| $47.50 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.62 | 19/20 | $6,156 | $5,831 | 71% | 78% | +$1,715 | -$33,222 | 242.5% | $-33,048 (vs do-nothing $-24,757) |
| $46.50 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.25 | 13/20 | $6,094 | $5,949 | 70% | 77% | +$1,892 | -$24,512 | 178.9% | $-27,011 (vs do-nothing $-18,720) |
| $47 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.78 | 17/20 | $6,052 | $5,787 | 69% | 77% | +$1,640 | -$30,303 | 221.2% | $-31,020 (vs do-nothing $-22,729) |
| $46 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.41 | 12/20 | $6,345 | $6,230 | 67% | 76% | +$1,844 | -$23,034 | 168.1% | $-25,979 (vs do-nothing $-17,688) |
| $47 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.44 | 18/20 | $5,989 | $5,694 | 67% | 76% | +$1,572 | -$30,897 | 225.5% | $-31,169 (vs do-nothing $-22,878) |
| $46.50 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.93 | 16/20 | $6,176 | $5,941 | 67% | 75% | +$1,569 | -$29,080 | 212.3% | $-30,243 (vs do-nothing $-21,952) |
| $46 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.11 | 14/20 | $5,908 | $5,733 | 64% | 74% | +$1,441 | -$25,893 | 189.0% | $-27,947 (vs do-nothing $-19,656) |
| $45.50 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.58 | 10/20 | $5,925 | $5,870 | 64% | 74% | +$1,584 | -$19,525 | 142.5% | $-23,361 (vs do-nothing $-15,070) |
| $46 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.76 | 16/20 | $6,022 | $5,787 | 63% | 74% | +$1,386 | -$28,552 | 208.4% | $-29,715 (vs do-nothing $-21,424) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45.50 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.30 | 13/20 | $5,980 | $5,835 | 62% | 73% | +$1,390 | -$24,447 | 178.4% | $-26,946 (vs do-nothing $-18,655) |
| $45 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.76 | 9/20 | $5,940 | $5,915 | 61% | 72% | +$1,436 | -$17,861 | 130.4% | $-22,142 (vs do-nothing $-13,851) |
| $45 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.50 | 12/20 | $6,000 | $5,885 | 59% | 72% | +$1,317 | -$22,926 | 167.3% | $-25,871 (vs do-nothing $-17,580) |
| $45 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.10 | 14/20 | $5,918 | $5,743 | 59% | 72% | +$1,147 | -$25,907 | 189.1% | $-27,961 (vs do-nothing $-19,670) |
| $44.50 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.98 | 8/20 | $5,940 | $5,945 | 57% | 71% | +$1,341 | -$16,100 | 117.5% | $-20,827 (vs do-nothing $-12,536) |
| $44.50 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.71 | 11/20 | $5,962 | $5,877 | 57% | 71% | +$1,224 | -$21,335 | 155.7% | $-24,725 (vs do-nothing $-16,434) |
| $44 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.60 | 12/20 | $5,891 | $5,776 | 55% | 70% | +$1,102 | -$22,806 | 166.5% | $-25,751 (vs do-nothing $-17,460) |
| $44 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.93 | 10/20 | $5,860 | $5,805 | 54% | 69% | +$1,113 | -$19,675 | 143.6% | $-23,511 (vs do-nothing $-15,220) |
| $44 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.20 | 8/20 | $6,600 | $6,605 | 54% | 69% | +$1,339 | -$16,324 | 119.2% | $-21,051 (vs do-nothing $-12,760) |
| $43.50 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.10 | 10/20 | $6,200 | $6,145 | 51% | 68% | +$979 | -$20,005 | 146.0% | $-23,841 (vs do-nothing $-15,550) |
| $43 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.00 | 11/20 | $6,000 | $5,915 | 50% | 68% | +$885 | -$21,566 | 157.4% | $-24,956 (vs do-nothing $-16,665) |
| $43.50 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.45 | 7/20 | $6,431 | $6,466 | 50% | 67% | +$1,189 | -$14,459 | 105.5% | $-19,631 (vs do-nothing $-11,340) |
| $43 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.35 | 9/20 | $6,030 | $6,005 | 49% | 67% | +$872 | -$18,230 | 133.1% | $-22,511 (vs do-nothing $-14,220) |
| $43 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.71 | 6/20 | $6,098 | $6,163 | 46% | 66% | +$1,004 | -$12,537 | 91.5% | $-18,155 (vs do-nothing $-9,864) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.