20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $66.78 (banked floor $65.13) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $11,057/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $386/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-50,110 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 7d | 18 × $47.50 | 78% | $5,554 | $2,098 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 18 × $56 | 18 Sep | 7d | 27.6% | 97%hist 96% | 6%hist 3% | -0pp | $90 | $386 | -$5,169 | $19,306 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $56 27.6% OTM over spot $43.88 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.09 mid) = $90 credit for the 7d cycle → $386/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $56) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $56.09) 97% EV / mo +$158 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -0pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-65/mo median; plan ~$-44/mo after 68% keep · $-293 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.4-4.4], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,740 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $67 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.01/sh now → $2.13 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $56 is $11 below CC-SS $66.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $56.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $56)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,110 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,691 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $56): -$19,306 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $62): -$941 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,666 (+$30,444 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,830 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,836, the opportunity cost of earning $386/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $51 | 18 Sep | 7d | 16.2% | 91%hist 96% | 19%hist 13% | +4pp | $520 | $2,229 | -$3,326 | $31,031 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $51 16.2% OTM over spot $43.88 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.29 mid) = $520 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,229/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $51.29) 92% EV / mo +$1,057 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,007/mo median; plan ~$685/mo after 68% keep · $6,016 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.3-4.1], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,114 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $60 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.57/sh now → $1.82 mid-life (likely $1.45–$2.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 307 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $52 (overshoots $1.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $16 below CC-SS $66.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $51.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,110 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,691 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $51): -$31,031 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,450 (+$19,660 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,830 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,620, the opportunity cost of earning $2,229/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 18 × $49 | 18 Sep | 7d | 11.7% | 85%hist 86% | 31%hist 31% | +8pp | $900 | $3,857 | -$1,697 | $31,096 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $49 11.7% OTM over spot $43.88 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.52 mid) = $900 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,857/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $49.52) 87% EV / mo +$1,731 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,709/mo median; plan ~$1,162/mo after 68% keep · $10,543 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.4-4.4], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,158 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $60 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.40/sh now → $1.70 mid-life (likely $1.53–$2.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 668 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $50 (overshoots $1.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49 is $18 below CC-SS $66.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $49.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $49)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,110 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,691 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $49): -$31,096 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $62): -$941 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,456 (+$18,654 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,830 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,626, the opportunity cost of earning $3,857/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $47.50 | 18 Sep | 7d | 8.3% | 78%hist 83% | 45%hist 39% | +10pp | $1,296 | $5,554 | — | $33,400 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $47.50 8.3% OTM over spot $43.88 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.76 mid) = $1,296 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,554/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $48.26) 82% EV / mo +$1,913 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,257/mo median; plan ~$1,535/mo after 68% keep · $14,400 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.8-5.2], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,608 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $60 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.28/sh now → $1.61 mid-life (likely $1.73–$2.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,002 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $49 (overshoots $1.07). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47.50 is $19 below CC-SS $66.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.72 collected) or spot ≥ $48.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,110 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,691 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $47.50): -$33,400 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $62): -$941 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,760 (+$16,350 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,830 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,930, the opportunity cost of earning $5,554/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $45 | 18 Sep | 7d | 2.6% | 61%hist 65% | 80%hist 79% | +14pp | $2,646 | $11,340 | +$5,786 | $36,550 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $45 2.6% OTM over spot $43.88 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $1.48 mid) = $2,646 credit for the 7d cycle → $11,340/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $46.48) 72% EV / mo +$2,698 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,096/mo median; plan ~$2,105/mo after 68% keep · $19,564 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.6-5.2], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 62% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $55 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.09/sh now → $1.48 mid-life (likely $1.96–$2.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,866 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $46 (overshoots $1.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $22 below CC-SS $66.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.37/sh (~25% of the $1.47 collected) or spot ≥ $46.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,110 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,691 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $45): -$36,550 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $62): -$941 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,910 (+$13,200 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,830 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,080, the opportunity cost of earning $11,340/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 26 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.107 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$50,691 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-8,830
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $47.50 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.72 | 18/20 | $5,554 | $5,199 | 78% | 82% | +$1,913 | -$33,400 | 243.8% | $-33,760 (vs do-nothing $-24,930) |
| $47 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.84 | 16/20 | $5,760 | $5,434 | 75% | 80% | +$1,892 | -$30,297 | 221.1% | $-31,598 (vs do-nothing $-22,768) |
| $47.50 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.32 | 20/20 | $5,657 | $5,271 | 72% | 78% | +$1,445 | -$35,911 | 262.1% | $-35,330 (vs do-nothing $-26,500) |
| $46.50 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.96 | 14/20 | $5,760 | $5,464 | 72% | 78% | +$1,723 | -$27,042 | 197.4% | $-29,284 (vs do-nothing $-20,454) |
| $47 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.46 | 18/20 | $5,631 | $5,276 | 70% | 77% | +$1,324 | -$32,968 | 240.6% | $-33,328 (vs do-nothing $-24,498) |
| $46 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.05 | 13/20 | $5,850 | $5,569 | 69% | 76% | +$1,390 | -$25,643 | 187.2% | $-28,356 (vs do-nothing $-19,526) |
| $47 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.12 | 19/20 | $5,754 | $5,384 | 68% | 76% | +$1,357 | -$33,546 | 244.9% | $-33,435 (vs do-nothing $-24,605) |
| $46.50 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.61 | 17/20 | $5,865 | $5,524 | 68% | 76% | +$1,292 | -$31,732 | 231.6% | $-32,562 (vs do-nothing $-23,732) |
| $47 | 28d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.60 | 20/20 | $5,571 | $5,186 | 66% | 75% | +$1,129 | -$34,351 | 250.7% | $-33,770 (vs do-nothing $-24,940) |
| $45.50 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.21 | 11/20 | $5,704 | $5,454 | 65% | 74% | +$1,231 | -$22,072 | 161.1% | $-25,726 (vs do-nothing $-16,896) |
| $46 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.79 | 15/20 | $5,754 | $5,443 | 65% | 74% | +$1,224 | -$28,479 | 207.9% | $-30,250 (vs do-nothing $-21,420) |
| $46 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.43 | 16/20 | $5,554 | $5,229 | 63% | 73% | +$1,118 | -$29,353 | 214.3% | $-30,654 (vs do-nothing $-21,824) |
| $46 | 28d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.91 | 18/20 | $5,612 | $5,256 | 63% | 73% | +$971 | -$32,158 | 234.7% | $-32,518 (vs do-nothing $-23,688) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45.50 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.97 | 14/20 | $5,910 | $5,614 | 62% | 73% | +$1,173 | -$27,028 | 197.3% | $-29,270 (vs do-nothing $-20,440) |
| $45 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.47 | 9/20 | $5,670 | $5,449 | 61% | 72% | +$1,349 | -$18,275 | 133.4% | $-22,870 (vs do-nothing $-14,040) |
| $45 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.21 | 12/20 | $5,683 | $5,417 | 60% | 71% | +$1,142 | -$23,479 | 171.4% | $-26,662 (vs do-nothing $-17,832) |
| $45 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.81 | 14/20 | $5,620 | $5,324 | 59% | 71% | +$989 | -$26,552 | 193.8% | $-28,794 (vs do-nothing $-19,964) |
| $45 | 28d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.30 | 16/20 | $5,657 | $5,331 | 59% | 71% | +$882 | -$29,561 | 215.8% | $-30,862 (vs do-nothing $-22,032) |
| $44.50 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.60 | 9/20 | $6,171 | $5,951 | 57% | 70% | +$1,095 | -$18,608 | 135.8% | $-23,203 (vs do-nothing $-14,373) |
| $44.50 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.44 | 11/20 | $5,751 | $5,501 | 57% | 70% | +$1,107 | -$21,819 | 159.3% | $-25,473 (vs do-nothing $-16,643) |
| $44 | 28d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.75 | 14/20 | $5,625 | $5,329 | 55% | 70% | +$804 | -$26,636 | 194.4% | $-28,878 (vs do-nothing $-20,048) |
| $44 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.20 | 13/20 | $5,943 | $5,662 | 54% | 69% | +$840 | -$25,448 | 185.8% | $-28,161 (vs do-nothing $-19,331) |
| $44 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.58 | 10/20 | $5,529 | $5,293 | 54% | 69% | +$829 | -$20,196 | 147.4% | $-24,320 (vs do-nothing $-15,490) |
| $44 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.82 | 8/20 | $6,240 | $6,034 | 53% | 68% | +$968 | -$16,765 | 122.4% | $-21,830 (vs do-nothing $-13,000) |
| $43.50 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.82 | 10/20 | $6,043 | $5,807 | 51% | 67% | +$825 | -$20,456 | 149.3% | $-24,580 (vs do-nothing $-15,750) |
| $43.50 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.13 | 7/20 | $6,390 | $6,199 | 49% | 67% | +$1,033 | -$14,802 | 108.0% | $-20,338 (vs do-nothing $-11,508) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.