20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $66.57 (banked floor $64.93) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $14,073/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $439/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-52,040 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 4d | 18 × $47 | 83% | $7,290 | $4,206 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 11d | 20 × $46.50 | 73% | $7,200 | $866 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 15 × $55 | 18 Sep | 4d | 28.5% | 99%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | +1pp | $60 | $450 | -$6,840 | $17,302 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $55 28.5% OTM over spot $42.81 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.04 mid) = $60 credit for the 4d cycle → $450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $55.05) 99% EV / mo +$342 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 51% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-27/mo median; plan ~$-19/mo after 68% keep · $-102 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-3.3], measured ONLY among the 51% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,032 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $66 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.91/sh now → $2.06 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $12 below CC-SS $66.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $55.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,040 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,710 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $55): -$17,302 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $62): -$2,267 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,899 (+$33,141 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,399 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,500, the opportunity cost of earning $450/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $49 | 18 Sep | 4d | 14.5% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | +8pp | $520 | $3,900 | -$3,390 | $34,630 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $49 14.5% OTM over spot $42.81 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.30 mid) = $520 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $49.30) 92% EV / mo +$2,270 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,965/mo median; plan ~$1,336/mo after 68% keep · $10,698 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.2-4.7], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,924 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $59 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.43/sh now → $1.72 mid-life (likely $1.48–$2.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 311 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $50 (overshoots $1.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49 is $18 below CC-SS $66.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $49.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $49)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,040 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,710 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $49): -$34,630 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,959 (+$18,081 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,399 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,560, the opportunity cost of earning $3,900/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 20 × $48.50 | 18 Sep | 4d | 13.3% | 90%hist 86% | 21%hist 26% | +7pp | $620 | $4,650 | -$2,640 | $35,530 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48.50 13.3% OTM over spot $42.81 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.35 mid) = $620 credit for the 4d cycle → $4,650/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $48.85) 91% EV / mo +$2,587 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,382/mo median; plan ~$1,620/mo after 68% keep · $11,689 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.2-3.8], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,770 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $59 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.40/sh now → $1.70 mid-life (likely $1.49–$2.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 444 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $50 (overshoots $1.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $18 below CC-SS $66.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $48.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,040 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,710 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48.50): -$35,530 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,859 (+$17,181 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,399 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,460, the opportunity cost of earning $4,650/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $47 | 18 Sep | 4d | 9.8% | 83%hist 86% | 34%hist 30% | +11pp | $972 | $7,290 | — | $34,263 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $47 9.8% OTM over spot $42.81 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.55 mid) = $972 credit for the 4d cycle → $7,290/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $47.55) 86% EV / mo +$3,556 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,228/mo median; plan ~$2,195/mo after 68% keep · $18,012 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.2-4.6], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,935 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $58 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.28/sh now → $1.62 mid-life (likely $1.66–$2.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 715 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $48 (overshoots $1.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $20 below CC-SS $66.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.54 collected) or spot ≥ $47.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,040 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,710 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $47): -$34,263 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $62): -$907 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,499 (+$17,541 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,399 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,100, the opportunity cost of earning $7,290/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $45 | 18 Sep | 4d | 5.1% | 71%hist 84% | 61%hist 59% | +14pp | $1,938 | $14,535 | +$7,245 | $39,054 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $45 5.1% OTM over spot $42.81 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $1.04 mid) = $1,938 credit for the 4d cycle → $14,535/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $46.03) 78% EV / mo +$5,003 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,929/mo median; plan ~$3,352/mo after 68% keep · $24,631 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.2-4.2], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$934 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $56 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.14/sh now → $1.51 mid-life (likely $1.85–$2.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,300 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $46 (overshoots $1.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $22 below CC-SS $66.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.02 collected) or spot ≥ $46.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,040 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,710 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $45): -$39,054 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $62): -$453 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,837 (+$13,203 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,399 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,438, the opportunity cost of earning $14,535/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 17 × $60 | 25 Sep | 11d | 40.2% | 98%hist 96% | 5%hist 3% | +1pp | $170 | $464 | -$6,736 | $11,007 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $60 40.2% OTM over spot $42.81 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $0.12 mid) = $170 credit for the 11d cycle → $464/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $60) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $60.12) 98% EV / mo +$319 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 49% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-52/mo median; plan ~$-35/mo after 68% keep · $-219 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [1.1-3.3], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,623 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $67 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.82/sh now → $3.41 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $60 is $7 below CC-SS $66.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $60.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $60)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,040 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,710 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $60): -$11,007 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $62): -$1,360 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,697 (+$40,343 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,399 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,298, the opportunity cost of earning $464/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $52 | 25 Sep | 11d | 21.5% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 26% | +3pp | $820 | $2,236 | -$4,964 | $28,330 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $52 21.5% OTM over spot $42.81 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $0.45 mid) = $820 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,236/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $52.45) 91% EV / mo +$1,051 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $856/mo median; plan ~$582/mo after 68% keep · $5,119 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.3-4.7], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,566 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $58 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.81/sh now → $2.69 mid-life (likely $2.16–$3.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 378 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $53 (overshoots $1.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $15 below CC-SS $66.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $52.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,040 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,710 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $52): -$28,330 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,659 (+$24,381 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,399 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,260, the opportunity cost of earning $2,236/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 20 × $48.50 | 25 Sep | 11d | 13.3% | 81%hist 86% | 39%hist 30% | +7pp | $1,760 | $4,800 | -$2,400 | $34,390 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48.50 13.3% OTM over spot $42.81 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $0.93 mid) = $1,760 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $49.43) 84% EV / mo +$1,851 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,856/mo median; plan ~$1,262/mo after 68% keep · $11,486 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.6-5.0], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,052 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $57 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.40/sh now → $2.41 mid-life (likely $2.38–$3.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.88/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 854 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $50 (overshoots $1.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $18 below CC-SS $66.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.88 collected) or spot ≥ $49.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,040 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,710 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48.50): -$34,390 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,719 (+$18,321 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,399 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,320, the opportunity cost of earning $4,800/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $46.50 | 25 Sep | 11d | 8.6% | 73%hist 84% | 56%hist 44% | +11pp | $2,640 | $7,200 | — | $37,510 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $46.50 8.6% OTM over spot $42.81 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $1.37 mid) = $2,640 credit for the 11d cycle → $7,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $47.87) 79% EV / mo +$2,278 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,429/mo median; plan ~$1,652/mo after 68% keep · $14,527 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.7-5.2], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,857 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $57 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.18/sh now → $2.25 mid-life (likely $2.52–$3.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,322 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $48 (overshoots $1.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46.50 is $20 below CC-SS $66.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.32 collected) or spot ≥ $47.87 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,040 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,710 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $46.50): -$37,510 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,839 (+$15,201 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,399 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,440, the opportunity cost of earning $7,200/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $43 | 25 Sep | 11d | 0.4% | 54%hist 70% | 97%hist 90% | +10pp | $5,160 | $14,073 | +$6,873 | $41,990 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $43 0.4% OTM over spot $42.81 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $2.63 mid) = $5,160 credit for the 11d cycle → $14,073/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $45.63) 69% EV / mo +$2,752 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,315/mo median; plan ~$2,254/mo after 68% keep · $19,839 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.3-4.6], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 80% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,190 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $55 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.81/sh now → $1.99 mid-life (likely $2.81–$3.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,411 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $44 (overshoots $1.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $24 below CC-SS $66.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.65/sh (~25% of the $2.58 collected) or spot ≥ $45.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,040 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,710 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $43): -$41,990 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,319 (+$10,721 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,399 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,920, the opportunity cost of earning $14,073/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 33 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.109 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$52,710 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-8,399
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $47 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.54 | 18/20 | $7,290 | $6,873 | 83% | 86% | +$3,556 | -$34,263 | 250.1% | $-34,499 (vs do-nothing $-26,100) |
| $46.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.63 | 15/20 | $7,087 | $6,703 | 81% | 84% | +$3,191 | -$29,167 | 212.9% | $-30,764 (vs do-nothing $-22,365) |
| $46 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.74 | 13/20 | $7,215 | $6,853 | 77% | 82% | +$2,925 | -$25,785 | 188.2% | $-28,289 (vs do-nothing $-19,890) |
| $45.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.87 | 11/20 | $7,178 | $6,837 | 74% | 80% | +$2,685 | -$22,225 | 162.2% | $-25,636 (vs do-nothing $-17,237) |
| $46.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.32 | 20/20 | $7,200 | $6,761 | 73% | 79% | +$2,278 | -$37,510 | 273.8% | $-36,839 (vs do-nothing $-28,440) |
| $46 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.47 | 18/20 | $7,216 | $6,799 | 71% | 78% | +$2,197 | -$34,389 | 251.0% | $-34,625 (vs do-nothing $-26,226) |
| $45 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.02 | 10/20 | $7,650 | $7,320 | 71% | 78% | +$2,633 | -$20,555 | 150.0% | $-24,419 (vs do-nothing $-16,020) |
| $45.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.61 | 17/20 | $7,465 | $7,058 | 68% | 76% | +$2,101 | -$33,090 | 241.5% | $-33,780 (vs do-nothing $-25,381) |
| $44.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.17 | 9/20 | $7,897 | $7,579 | 67% | 75% | +$2,383 | -$18,814 | 137.3% | $-23,132 (vs do-nothing $-14,733) |
| $45.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.27 | 19/20 | $7,188 | $6,760 | 66% | 75% | +$1,807 | -$35,729 | 260.8% | $-35,512 (vs do-nothing $-27,113) |
| $45 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.77 | 15/20 | $7,241 | $6,857 | 66% | 75% | +$1,897 | -$29,707 | 216.8% | $-31,304 (vs do-nothing $-22,905) |
| $45 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.43 | 18/20 | $7,290 | $6,873 | 64% | 74% | +$1,699 | -$34,461 | 251.5% | $-34,697 (vs do-nothing $-26,298) |
| $45 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.00 | 20/20 | $7,200 | $6,761 | 63% | 74% | +$1,611 | -$37,150 | 271.2% | $-36,479 (vs do-nothing $-28,080) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.96 | 14/20 | $7,484 | $7,110 | 63% | 74% | +$1,864 | -$28,161 | 205.6% | $-30,211 (vs do-nothing $-21,812) |
| $44 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.36 | 7/20 | $7,140 | $6,843 | 63% | 73% | +$2,020 | -$14,850 | 108.4% | $-20,075 (vs do-nothing $-11,676) |
| $44.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.62 | 17/20 | $7,423 | $7,017 | 62% | 73% | +$1,641 | -$33,073 | 241.4% | $-33,763 (vs do-nothing $-25,364) |
| $44 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.15 | 12/20 | $7,036 | $6,685 | 60% | 72% | +$1,621 | -$24,510 | 178.9% | $-27,467 (vs do-nothing $-19,068) |
| $44 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.82 | 15/20 | $7,050 | $6,666 | 59% | 72% | +$1,469 | -$29,632 | 216.3% | $-31,229 (vs do-nothing $-22,830) |
| $44 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.35 | 18/20 | $7,236 | $6,819 | 59% | 72% | +$1,305 | -$34,605 | 252.6% | $-34,841 (vs do-nothing $-26,442) |
| $43.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.56 | 7/20 | $8,190 | $7,893 | 58% | 71% | +$2,030 | -$15,060 | 109.9% | $-20,285 (vs do-nothing $-11,886) |
| $43.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.38 | 11/20 | $7,140 | $6,799 | 57% | 71% | +$1,573 | -$22,764 | 166.2% | $-26,175 (vs do-nothing $-17,776) |
| $43.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.00 | 15/20 | $7,500 | $7,116 | 57% | 71% | +$1,405 | -$30,112 | 219.8% | $-31,709 (vs do-nothing $-23,310) |
| $43 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.80 | 16/20 | $7,296 | $6,901 | 55% | 70% | +$1,201 | -$31,640 | 230.9% | $-32,783 (vs do-nothing $-24,384) |
| $43 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.25 | 13/20 | $7,042 | $6,679 | 55% | 70% | +$1,281 | -$26,422 | 192.9% | $-28,926 (vs do-nothing $-20,527) |
| $43 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.58 | 10/20 | $7,036 | $6,707 | 54% | 69% | +$1,376 | -$20,995 | 153.2% | $-24,859 (vs do-nothing $-16,460) |
| $43 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.78 | 6/20 | $8,010 | $7,724 | 54% | 69% | +$1,713 | -$13,077 | 95.5% | $-18,755 (vs do-nothing $-10,356) |
| $42.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.50 | 13/20 | $7,583 | $7,221 | 52% | 69% | +$1,312 | -$26,747 | 195.2% | $-29,251 (vs do-nothing $-20,852) |
| $42 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.30 | 14/20 | $7,224 | $6,851 | 51% | 68% | +$1,089 | -$28,385 | 207.2% | $-30,435 (vs do-nothing $-22,036) |
| $42.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.84 | 10/20 | $7,745 | $7,416 | 51% | 68% | +$1,433 | -$21,235 | 155.0% | $-25,099 (vs do-nothing $-16,700) |
| $42 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.75 | 12/20 | $7,500 | $7,148 | 50% | 68% | +$1,208 | -$24,990 | 182.4% | $-27,947 (vs do-nothing $-19,548) |
| $42.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.97 | 5/20 | $7,388 | $7,112 | 49% | 67% | +$1,282 | -$11,052 | 80.7% | $-17,184 (vs do-nothing $-8,785) |
| $42 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.10 | 9/20 | $7,609 | $7,290 | 48% | 67% | +$1,293 | -$19,327 | 141.1% | $-23,645 (vs do-nothing $-15,246) |
| $42 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.30 | 5/20 | $8,625 | $8,350 | 45% | 65% | +$1,430 | -$11,137 | 81.3% | $-17,269 (vs do-nothing $-8,870) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.