20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $63.43 | CC-SS: $66.88 (banked floor $65.24) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $107,700 | (ND $6.85 + SW $47) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,059/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $418/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-52,780 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 3d | 17 × $47 | 86% | $5,100 | $4,199 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 10d | 19 × $47 | 77% | $5,187 | $893 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 14 × $54 | 18 Sep | 3d | 26.1% | 99%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | +1pp | $42 | $420 | -$4,680 | $17,990 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $54 26.1% OTM over spot $42.81 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.04 mid) = $42 credit for the 3d cycle → $420/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $54) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $54.03) 99% EV / mo +$304 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-1/mo median; plan ~$-0/mo after 68% keep · $-2 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.9-3.9], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,095 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $66 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.16/sh now → $1.53 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $54 is $13 below CC-SS $66.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $54.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $54)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,780 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,436 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $54): -$17,990 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $65): -$1,068 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,403 (+$34,377 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,905 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,498, the opportunity cost of earning $420/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 17 × $48 | 18 Sep | 3d | 12.1% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 14% | +6pp | $340 | $3,400 | -$1,700 | $31,756 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $48 12.1% OTM over spot $42.81 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.22 mid) = $340 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $48.22) 91% EV / mo +$1,558 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,702/mo median; plan ~$1,158/mo after 68% keep · $9,742 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.3-4.3], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,816 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $59 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.79/sh now → $1.27 mid-life (likely $1.16–$2.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 309 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $49 (overshoots $1.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $19 below CC-SS $66.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $48.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,780 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,436 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $48): -$31,756 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $65): -$534 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,635 (+$21,145 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,905 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,730, the opportunity cost of earning $3,400/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $48 | 18 Sep | 3d | 12.1% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 14% | +6pp | $400 | $4,000 | -$1,100 | $37,360 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48 12.1% OTM over spot $42.81 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.22 mid) = $400 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $48.22) 91% EV / mo +$1,833 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,927/mo median; plan ~$1,310/mo after 68% keep · $10,280 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.1-3.8], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,136 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $59 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.79/sh now → $1.27 mid-life (likely $1.23–$2.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 315 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $49 (overshoots $1.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $19 below CC-SS $66.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $48.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,780 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,436 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48): -$37,360 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,705 (+$16,075 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,905 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,800, the opportunity cost of earning $4,000/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 17 × $47 | 18 Sep | 3d | 9.8% | 86%hist 86% | 28%hist 26% | +8pp | $510 | $5,100 | — | $33,286 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $47 9.8% OTM over spot $42.81 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.32 mid) = $510 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $47.33) 88% EV / mo +$2,051 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,452/mo median; plan ~$1,667/mo after 68% keep · $13,176 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.3-4.5], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,576 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $58 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.74/sh now → $1.23 mid-life (likely $1.18–$2.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 480 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $48 (overshoots $1.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $20 below CC-SS $66.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $47.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,780 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,436 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $47): -$33,286 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $65): -$534 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,165 (+$19,615 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,905 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,260, the opportunity cost of earning $5,100/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $45.50 | 18 Sep | 3d | 6.3% | 77%hist 84% | 47%hist 39% | +10pp | $1,008 | $10,080 | +$4,980 | $37,476 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $45.50 6.3% OTM over spot $42.81 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.58 mid) = $1,008 credit for the 3d cycle → $10,080/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $46.09) 81% EV / mo +$3,273 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,910/mo median; plan ~$2,659/mo after 68% keep · $19,764 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.3-4.3], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,093 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $59 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.65/sh now → $1.17 mid-life (likely $1.32–$2.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 899 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $47 (overshoots $1.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45.50 is $21 below CC-SS $66.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.56 collected) or spot ≥ $46.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,780 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,436 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $45.50): -$37,476 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $65): -$356 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,177 (+$15,603 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,905 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,272, the opportunity cost of earning $10,080/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 18 × $58 | 25 Sep | 10d | 35.5% | 97%hist 96% | 6%hist 3% | +0pp | $144 | $432 | -$4,755 | $15,840 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $58 35.5% OTM over spot $42.81 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.11 mid) = $144 credit for the 10d cycle → $432/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $58) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $58.12) 97% EV / mo +$236 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-67/mo median; plan ~$-45/mo after 68% keep · $-365 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.4-4.1], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,922 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $64 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.98/sh now → $2.81 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $58 is $9 below CC-SS $66.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $58.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $58)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,780 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,436 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $58): -$15,840 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $65): -$356 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,541 (+$37,239 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,905 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,636, the opportunity cost of earning $432/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $52 | 25 Sep | 10d | 21.5% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | +3pp | $580 | $1,740 | -$3,447 | $29,180 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $52 21.5% OTM over spot $42.81 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.33 mid) = $580 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,740/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $52.34) 92% EV / mo +$740 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 49% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $668/mo median; plan ~$454/mo after 68% keep · $3,916 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.4-4.6], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,117 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $58 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.32/sh now → $2.35 mid-life (likely $1.87–$3.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 259 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $53 (overshoots $1.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $15 below CC-SS $66.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $52.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,780 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,436 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $52): -$29,180 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,525 (+$24,255 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,905 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,620, the opportunity cost of earning $1,740/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 20 × $49 | 25 Sep | 10d | 14.5% | 84%hist 86% | 33%hist 30% | +4pp | $1,160 | $3,480 | -$1,707 | $34,600 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $49 14.5% OTM over spot $42.81 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.63 mid) = $1,160 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $49.63) 86% EV / mo +$1,163 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,360/mo median; plan ~$925/mo after 68% keep · $8,695 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.6-5.0], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,101 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $56 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.01/sh now → $2.13 mid-life (likely $1.94–$3.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 711 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $50 (overshoots $1.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49 is $18 below CC-SS $66.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.58 collected) or spot ≥ $49.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $49)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,780 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,436 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $49): -$34,600 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,945 (+$18,835 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,905 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,040, the opportunity cost of earning $3,480/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $47 | 25 Sep | 10d | 9.8% | 77%hist 84% | 49%hist 39% | +6pp | $1,729 | $5,187 | — | $36,043 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $47 9.8% OTM over spot $42.81 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.96 mid) = $1,729 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,187/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $47.95) 81% EV / mo +$1,339 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,852/mo median; plan ~$1,260/mo after 68% keep · $11,494 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.3-5.1], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,054 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $55 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.81/sh now → $1.99 mid-life (likely $2.09–$3.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.91/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,101 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $48 (overshoots $1.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $20 below CC-SS $66.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.91 collected) or spot ≥ $47.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,780 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,436 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $47): -$36,043 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$178 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,566 (+$17,214 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,905 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,661, the opportunity cost of earning $5,187/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $44 | 25 Sep | 10d | 2.8% | 61%hist 65% | 83%hist 79% | +10pp | $3,363 | $10,089 | +$4,902 | $40,109 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $44 2.8% OTM over spot $42.81 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $1.83 mid) = $3,363 credit for the 10d cycle → $10,089/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $45.83) 71% EV / mo +$1,571 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 51% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,643/mo median; plan ~$1,798/mo after 68% keep · $16,837 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.7-5.1], measured ONLY among the 51% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$38 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $56 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.53/sh now → $1.79 mid-life (likely $2.42–$3.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,043 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $45 (overshoots $1.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $23 below CC-SS $66.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.44/sh (~25% of the $1.77 collected) or spot ≥ $45.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $66.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,780 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,436 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $44): -$40,109 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $65): -$178 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,632 (+$13,148 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,905 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,727, the opportunity cost of earning $10,089/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 38 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.110 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$53,436 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,905
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $47 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.30 | 17/20 | $5,100 | $4,735 | 86% | 88% | +$2,051 | -$33,286 | 243.0% | $-33,165 (vs do-nothing $-30,260) |
| $46.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.36 | 14/20 | $5,040 | $4,728 | 84% | 86% | +$1,810 | -$28,028 | 204.6% | $-28,441 (vs do-nothing $-25,536) |
| $46 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.45 | 12/20 | $5,400 | $5,123 | 81% | 84% | +$1,848 | -$24,516 | 178.9% | $-25,285 (vs do-nothing $-22,380) |
| $45.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.56 | 9/20 | $5,040 | $4,816 | 77% | 81% | +$1,637 | -$18,738 | 136.8% | $-20,041 (vs do-nothing $-17,136) |
| $47 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.91 | 19/20 | $5,187 | $4,786 | 77% | 81% | +$1,339 | -$36,043 | 263.1% | $-35,566 (vs do-nothing $-32,661) |
| $46.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.02 | 17/20 | $5,202 | $4,837 | 74% | 79% | +$1,253 | -$32,912 | 240.2% | $-32,791 (vs do-nothing $-29,886) |
| $45 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.67 | 8/20 | $5,360 | $5,154 | 73% | 79% | +$1,518 | -$16,968 | 123.9% | $-18,449 (vs do-nothing $-15,544) |
| $47 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.45 | 20/20 | $5,118 | $4,699 | 73% | 78% | +$1,092 | -$36,860 | 269.1% | $-36,205 (vs do-nothing $-33,300) |
| $46 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.13 | 15/20 | $5,085 | $4,755 | 72% | 78% | +$1,094 | -$29,625 | 216.2% | $-29,860 (vs do-nothing $-26,955) |
| $46.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.61 | 18/20 | $5,114 | $4,731 | 71% | 77% | +$1,082 | -$33,786 | 246.6% | $-33,487 (vs do-nothing $-30,582) |
| $45.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.29 | 13/20 | $5,031 | $4,736 | 69% | 76% | +$1,077 | -$26,117 | 190.6% | $-26,708 (vs do-nothing $-23,803) |
| $44.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.80 | 7/20 | $5,600 | $5,411 | 69% | 76% | +$1,361 | -$15,106 | 110.3% | $-16,765 (vs do-nothing $-13,860) |
| $46 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.75 | 17/20 | $5,250 | $4,885 | 69% | 76% | +$1,021 | -$32,521 | 237.4% | $-32,400 (vs do-nothing $-29,495) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.24 | 18/20 | $5,040 | $4,657 | 67% | 75% | +$824 | -$33,552 | 244.9% | $-33,253 (vs do-nothing $-30,348) |
| $45 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.44 | 12/20 | $5,184 | $4,907 | 67% | 75% | +$1,020 | -$24,528 | 179.0% | $-25,297 (vs do-nothing $-22,392) |
| $45.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.88 | 16/20 | $5,308 | $4,961 | 67% | 75% | +$897 | -$31,200 | 227.7% | $-31,257 (vs do-nothing $-28,352) |
| $45 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.10 | 14/20 | $5,188 | $4,876 | 64% | 74% | +$920 | -$27,692 | 202.1% | $-28,105 (vs do-nothing $-25,200) |
| $44 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.95 | 6/20 | $5,700 | $5,529 | 64% | 73% | +$1,157 | -$13,158 | 96.0% | $-14,995 (vs do-nothing $-12,090) |
| $44.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.61 | 11/20 | $5,313 | $5,054 | 64% | 73% | +$969 | -$22,847 | 166.8% | $-23,794 (vs do-nothing $-20,889) |
| $45 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.52 | 16/20 | $5,040 | $4,692 | 63% | 73% | +$726 | -$30,976 | 226.1% | $-31,033 (vs do-nothing $-28,128) |
| $44.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.23 | 13/20 | $5,116 | $4,821 | 62% | 72% | +$743 | -$26,195 | 191.2% | $-26,786 (vs do-nothing $-23,881) |
| $44 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.77 | 10/20 | $5,310 | $5,068 | 61% | 71% | +$827 | -$21,110 | 154.1% | $-22,235 (vs do-nothing $-19,330) |
| $44 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.42 | 12/20 | $5,125 | $4,848 | 60% | 71% | +$680 | -$24,552 | 179.2% | $-25,321 (vs do-nothing $-22,416) |
| $44 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.88 | 14/20 | $5,040 | $4,728 | 59% | 71% | +$619 | -$28,000 | 204.4% | $-28,413 (vs do-nothing $-25,508) |
| $43.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.14 | 5/20 | $5,700 | $5,547 | 59% | 71% | +$1,013 | -$11,120 | 81.2% | $-13,135 (vs do-nothing $-10,230) |
| $43.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.97 | 9/20 | $5,319 | $5,095 | 57% | 70% | +$751 | -$19,269 | 140.7% | $-20,572 (vs do-nothing $-17,667) |
| $43.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.63 | 11/20 | $5,105 | $4,846 | 57% | 70% | +$630 | -$22,825 | 166.6% | $-23,772 (vs do-nothing $-20,867) |
| $43 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.30 | 13/20 | $5,362 | $5,068 | 55% | 69% | +$573 | -$26,754 | 195.3% | $-27,345 (vs do-nothing $-24,440) |
| $43 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.85 | 10/20 | $5,029 | $4,788 | 55% | 68% | +$570 | -$21,030 | 153.5% | $-22,155 (vs do-nothing $-19,250) |
| $43 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.17 | 8/20 | $5,208 | $5,002 | 54% | 68% | +$626 | -$17,368 | 126.8% | $-18,849 (vs do-nothing $-15,944) |
| $43 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.34 | 4/20 | $5,360 | $5,224 | 54% | 68% | +$765 | -$9,016 | 65.8% | $-11,209 (vs do-nothing $-8,304) |
| $42.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.00 | 10/20 | $5,294 | $5,052 | 52% | 67% | +$417 | -$21,380 | 156.1% | $-22,505 (vs do-nothing $-19,600) |
| $42.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.41 | 7/20 | $5,061 | $4,872 | 51% | 67% | +$552 | -$15,379 | 112.3% | $-17,038 (vs do-nothing $-14,133) |
| $42 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.85 | 11/20 | $5,294 | $5,034 | 51% | 67% | +$586 | -$23,133 | 168.9% | $-24,080 (vs do-nothing $-21,175) |
| $42 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.20 | 9/20 | $5,082 | $4,858 | 49% | 66% | +$293 | -$19,512 | 142.4% | $-20,815 (vs do-nothing $-17,910) |
| $42.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.55 | 4/20 | $6,200 | $6,064 | 48% | 65% | +$631 | -$9,132 | 66.7% | $-11,325 (vs do-nothing $-8,420) |
| $42 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.68 | 7/20 | $5,628 | $5,439 | 47% | 65% | +$574 | -$15,540 | 113.4% | $-17,199 (vs do-nothing $-14,294) |
| $42 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.84 | 3/20 | $5,520 | $5,402 | 43% | 63% | +$515 | -$6,912 | 50.5% | $-9,283 (vs do-nothing $-6,378) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.